FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Winter 2023/2024 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST
Comments
-
-
-
-
Cool with transient cold (polar maritime) the most likely outcome based on current output. After a promising 2-3 days of the GFS setting up a block in the Atlantic with the pre Christmas high regressing toward Greenland heights, we have seen in the last two days the pre Xmas high sink south leaving us with a rather flat zonal pattern. That said the ECMWF clusters/ems are throwing up a mixed bag of everything for Christmas. And the USA is looking toasty for Christmas into New Year.
www.x.com/wolfeeire
6 -
06z gfs ens a tad cooler than 00z, 18z and 12z. The pressure mean brings the mid Atlantic high further south east,while there is greater heights over Greenland. A cooler run into Christmas Day than previous runs on average with nothing exceptionally cold or mild favoured.
www.x.com/wolfeeire
6 -
Advertisement
-
-
-
-
-
Just took a look at the 6z in terms of warming and there has been a big shift since yesterdays output to support major warmings from Christmas Day. Yesterday there were only 2 ensemble members supporting a major warming developing. This mornings GFS runs has about 8 members going into the red showing the possibilities of an SSW in the works while the majority of the remaining members go for low to intermediate warmings.
A fairly major shift towards substantial warming in todays models compared to yesterday. We are likely to see a further swing towards a major end of December warming over the next few days, fingers crossed. Current modeling suggests that the PV may come under major pressure final week of December and into the first week of January. What we need to see modeled in about a weeks time is the warming pushing right into the pole with the PV being split into 2 separate lobes and not just a displacement.
As for the GFS operational it does not go for a major warming, however the PV is being stretched and displaced on that particular run, while at the same time another warming is developing over the med and heading towards Asia.
4 -
Advertisement
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
The charts are going to change a lot between now and Christmas. If this was summer, we would be telling ourselves to cop on if we threw the towel at what we perceived to be the outcome two weeks down the road. More so, what is going in re: the PV is likely to produce some fairly jumpy model output in the next two weeks.
Last two GFS op runs for same time period for example
All we can look for is trends. The trend over the past 3 days for the 22-25th period is definitely toward cool (including brief transient polar maritime cold)) weather, but this trend is highly likely to change. A week from now, we may still be guessing. That's why our shared hobby is so much fun. Constantly guessing and learning.
Post edited by WolfeEire onwww.x.com/wolfeeire
9 -
The main thing to look out for in the ensembles mean is the high pressure to our south. If you're looking for colder weather this Christmas, this current 'trend' of the high sitting from the azores, through Iberian Peninsula into the continent will prevent the deep cold to our north from sinking south. It basically acts as an American football blocker, preventing any downward shift of colder air. It is a familiar site in Irish winters so it is always a favoured outcome.
There are a couple of very cold members showing up in the GEFS for Christmas with the majority of the remainder showing cool to average temps for the time of year. For those that do not know, the lines shown represent the 850hpa temps of the various members. 850hpas represent the temperature at about 1.5 km, which is generally above the atmospheric boundary layer. You can view here
https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs.php. The ens updates four times a day at around 1230am/pm and 5.30am/pm
.
www.x.com/wolfeeire
9 -
-
Advertisement
-
very mild charts this morning, the entire run up to Christmas now looks mild or very mild, however it's still 2 weeks to Christmas Day so changes could happen before then but we're going to need to see a major shift in the models this week if we're going to get anything noteworthy before December is over with. At the moment the Atlantic is looking increasingly difficult to shift and blocking is nowhere to be seen on the latest short range models with low pressures routed over Greenland/Iceland, north Canada. Blocking has packed it's bags and gone on holidays.
The NAO/AO both have gone positive and these are set to remain positive or become stronger positive over the next week or 2 so not much support for northern blocking to come back in the short term. Hopefully things will be looking different in about 2 weeks time.
4 -
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Advertisement
-
