FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Winter 2023/2024 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST

igCorcaigh

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121455633#Comment_121455633

They could do with scaling that measure onto a more interpretable metric, eh?

Compress and logarithm perhaps, but the measure of hPa isn't particularly understandable to plebs like me.

InAtFullBack

Flood gates to the north are open for business!

WolfeEire

The 18z GFS run brings us The Polar Express for Christmas. 🚊❄️

Fantasy Island eye candy (and that's all it is for now). If this isn't an outlier (it is nailed on to be), I am heading to the bookies in the morn.

InAtFullBack

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121455652#Comment_121455652

Perfect ingredients for a polar low to whip up over the mild north Atlantic waters...

Billcarson

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121455649#Comment_121455649

A bit like when the floodgates opened for the second cold spell in Dec 2010 around the 17th/18th. We can but dream for now.. ...

Gonzo

Now that's a proper northerly with -9 to -10 uppers cold enough for snow to low levels right down to the beach, no Atlantic mixing, the biggest problem would be precipitation due to our geography, would need some polar lows to bring snow down across the country. As is if it verified it would be much colder than the low level cold and dampness of the current cold spell. I suspect this might be the first tease of what the final third of December could have on offer, most likely back to a mild run for the 00z. Hopefully more interesting charts to come over the coming week with a growing level of confidence in the possibility of an end of December proper cold spell.

WolfeEire

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121455652#Comment_121455652

As far as outliers go this one will be well out there. Ensembles showing little support.

nacho libre

Crikey what a run. The pv descending on Scandinavia. No marginality here folks!

Too bad the GFS will have sobered up in the morning- or is this like when it picked up on the current cold spell and none of the other models were interested, we can only hope!

Gonzo

The GFS 00z and 6z have well sobered up as expected.

kittyn

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121457038#Comment_121457038

For now ;) I just have a feeling something is brewing!

pauldry

The CFS promises a cold Xmas day on its ever flipping runs just 480hours away

WolfeEire

GFS 2m temps showing progressively cooling temps from about a week from now. It certainly isn't showing any sign of a significant warm-up leading up to Christmas. Conditions look quite zonal initially but definite signs now of pressure rising near/over Ireland.

InAtFullBack

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121457038#Comment_121457038

Indeed, though the 06Z does show high pressure from NFL to Azores building up and possibly linking up with heights already over Greenland. A low looks set to track into Scandinavia and bring down an arctic blast in time for Christmas (if the GFS only went on for another 120hrs). Though it must be said that I'm probably over-optimistic in reading into this as a trend back towards last nights 18Z!

Gonzo

At the moment the GFS is suggesting a slight cooling trend which is mostly down to the potential north-west to south-east alignment of the jetstream from a weeks time which is still a relatively mild direction as it is still very much Atlantic driven. I'm fairly certain we shall see a few interesting charts pop up again over the next 2 weeks, maybe complete outliers that will gain extra support over time.

What I would love to see is a proper SSW split around Christmas and not having to wait till end of January or beginning of February when most of the ships have sailed by that point and we'd be looking at March for any possible effects on our weather.

nacho libre

I wonder what the lag effects between the mjo going to phase 7 or 8- assuming it does- and the response we might expect to see in the troposphere arising from it. If( always if) it happens might we then see a high near us eventually going north westwards during Christmas week?

With this in mind lets hope last night's GFS run, albeit an outlier, is the start of a trend we see repeated in some runs over the next few days.

As regards an eventual SSW, I've read a period of zonality beforehand might be better, because if the Northern Hemisphere is similar to what we have now, then an ssw could end up shaking things up for the worst by bringing about a zonal pattern

WolfeEire

500hpa anomalies for Christmas week (Dec 25-31) via ECMWF. The EC42 has a propensity to change but it's.an interesting medium range forecast for cold prospects

WolfeEire

"Zonal swells, zonal swells, zonal all the way" 😥

Models are largely in agreement about a continuation of an Atlantic driven weather pattern up to 21st/22nd. The jetstream is set to shift to further north next week as high pressure builds from the Azores and Iberia, which has been the deathknell of cold prospects in many a December. The latter is subject to change but, as things stand, it will dictate our weather in the run up to Christmas. Slight changes in how this high positions itself will change the forecast so an interesting few days ahead. The CFS is an example of what could happen but...it is the CFS (https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfse_cartes.php?ech=198&carte=0&mode=1&run=0)

WolfeEire

The GEM does something interesting with the area of high pressure toward the end of the run as it regresses further northwest and begins to link up with the Greenland high and direct the colder airmass south toward Ireland

Gonzo

GFS 12z delivers a white Christmas for Greece....

They don't need SSWS, Easterly QBO's, seaface temperatures don't matter either, they just get snowy outbreaks every single winter almost guaranteed at this stage.

WolfeEire

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121462579#Comment_121462579

The JMA does something broadly similar to the GEM for the same timeframe.

Derekon2021

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121463115#Comment_121463115

Yes, but they also get UNBEARABLE summers! Give me Ireland any day of the week

D

bazlers

This is the year guys..; )

Neddyusa

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121463115#Comment_121463115

Their standard winter is much snowier than ours though. I don't know why people see that as surprising every year?

pauldry

Looks mild and breezy right out to the end of the year. Cold air to the North and East trying to break in but Atlantic in overdrive so more chance of brief storms than snow at this stage. Could flip yet though.

WolfeEire

GFS tries so bloody hard to bring in the cold and finally gets there. Must be doing it to tease the coldies.

nacho libre

Bank! Come on now let's count this down...don't sober up in the morning GFS!

Gonzo

Not a great pub run and the overall ensemble run upgrades the mild. The operational which is an outlier on the cold side is still Atlantic driven for the most part.

WolfeEire

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121464826#Comment_121464826

With all of the background signals about goings on over the Pole, I think we will see some fairly dramatic 10-16 day period charts charts come this weekend.

bazlers

Yes some juicey charts will be coming along soon youvwould think.

Gonzo

Hopefully some juicy charts over the next week with an increasing amount of confidence. This time I would like something properly cold and unstable, a cold spell with excitement this time around, no atlantic mixing, a decent fall of snow, not asking for too much here, just a nice wee fall of snow that will last a few days!