Will the greens be in government after the next general election?

Augme

I'd be amazed if SDs went into government with FFG. Given knew they are a new party it would destroy them as a political party.

orangerhyme

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121393205#Comment_121393205

I've always liked them and think they get unfair criticism, particularly Eamon Ryan.

But I'm not a member and might not even vote for them.

They'll get decimated in the next election. There was a green surge last time in Europe and globally and they benefitted from it.

Next election will be about cost of living, housing and will be for change.

I'm hoping they'll keep 4 seats.

The forthcoming local elections will give some insight on public opinion.

orangerhyme

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121393208#Comment_121393208

Their founder is a minister in FFG.

I'm sure they'll be open to discussion. No point having policies if you never have the power to implement them.

FrancieBrady

Ryan leading them won't help but they might retain a few seats, he is a figure of fun and ridicule tbh.

Zero chance of being in government in any influential capacity.

I'd expect the tensions that were papered over to arise again tbh and weaken them.

Augme

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121393249#Comment_121393249

Yea, and when they see him not getting reelected they'll be even less likely to go into government with FFG.

orangerhyme

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121393253#Comment_121393253

Yeah I know. He says some daft things but I still like him. I judge people on what their intentions are and his are always in the right place.

They might be better off with Catherine Martin in leadership though. There's a chance of Eamon losing his seat also.

I think the tensions arise from having very left people and more pragmatic people in their party.

Sometimes you just gotta compromise and take what progress you can.

BlueSkyDreams

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121393208#Comment_121393208

They are hardly going to get in on their own.

Its FFG or SF for them, or no govt at all.

orangerhyme

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121393329#Comment_121393329

Between a rock and a hard place.

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121393314#Comment_121393314

That will massively impact his party's prospect's, like him or not.

There were lots of complaints about bullying in the party ranks so tensions may not be as pure as them having ideological differences.

Augme

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121393329#Comment_121393329

They will go with SF or not at all. They will have learnt from Labour that being a left leaning party and going into going to prop up a right leaning party just isn't a very smart idea if they have any interest in getting reelected.

orangerhyme

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121394129#Comment_121394129

People call FF and FG centre right parties but really if you compare them globally, they're centre left - socially and economically.

The Democrats in the US are considered center left, but they're to the right of FFG.

We're closer to European democratic parties and the "Nordic Model".

Free healthcare, free education, subsidized childcare, social welfare, lenient sentencing, abortion, gay marriage, subsidized solar, union rights, free speech, free media etc.

These are center left policies.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121391774#Comment_121391774

Yeah, Labour are going extinct after being on the cusp of doing what SF are currently doing.

They've never been forgiven for 2011.

SD are not going to make that mistake

BlueSkyDreams

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121394129#Comment_121394129

FFG are centre left nowadays.

Soc Dems could easily dove tail with them.

orangerhyme

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121394322#Comment_121394322

100%.

The Greens are as left as the SDs anyway.

SDs ideology is the "Nordic model", so it's pretty similar to FFG.

timmyntc

The green party problem is they shifted from a focus on the environment, to a focus on climate change.

Now the priorities are co2 emissions and heavy handed taxation as solution, rather than tangible things to protect the local environments and landscapes.

PT investment is great - but the greens cant necessarily point to that and claim "we did this" either, all parties are committee to improving PT - the only thing people will credit GP for are the punitive carbon emissions measures and taxes.

Brussels Sprout

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121391580#Comment_121391580

Eamon Ryan is definitely not safe. I reckon that he's in the toughest constituency in the country. It's a 4 seater with himself, Bacik, Jim O'Callaghan and Chris Andrews. FG had 2 seats there in 2016 and will almost certainly get 1 of those back next time around. Andrews won't be losing out so it's basically 2 from 3 between Ryan, Bacik and O'Callaghan. FG & SF will probably run second candidates too who'd be outsiders but will just complicate the picture even more.

I don't understand the visceral hatred for him that's out there. He's not smug in the way that Ossian Smyth and few others of their TDs are. I think he's a compassionate, thoughtful man who brought them back from the brink in 2011. I hope that he doesn't lose his seat but I wouldn't be wagering large sums of money on it.

orangerhyme

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121395366#Comment_121395366

I'm just guessing really but it's a GP stronghold and he topped the polls last time. Also he's the leader and most high profile, for better or worse.

It's hard to know the perception on the ground though is. When times are tough, the tide normally goes out on the GP as people care about their pockets more. They got annihilated during the recession.

I was thinking Callaghan would lose his seat and FG will get their seat back. But who knows really.

Yeah I bristle a little when people criticise him unfairly. Criticise his ideology and policies all you want, but not the man himself.

Someone I know recently said he was an idiot and it angered me. Also the photos of him napping in the Dail during the pandemic. He was probably working 18 hours a day at that point.

The "we'll have our salads ready to go!" was funny because he said it with such gusto and passion, but I like that. He was thinking of the greater good.

Who do you find smug in the GP? CM?

I don't follow much politics on TV but I read the paper, so my perception is different.

I definitely like Neasa Hourigan a lot. Maybe she's too good for politics and will lose her seat and end up at an NGO somewhere.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121395481#Comment_121395481

"Yeah I bristle a little when people criticise him unfairly. Criticise his ideology and policies all you want, but not the man himself."

Oh I'm the opposite. That man has done serious damage to environmentally sound ideas, in the public consciousness.

He seems to have zero ability to bring people along in a fair manner. Everything is stick with him and punishing the lowest.

I appreciate that he is trying to force things through, while he is a king-maker, against FF/FG who would do nothing, if given the chance, but his ability to get this message across is abysmal.

orangerhyme

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121395500#Comment_121395500

I mean it's also fine to criticise his communication skills, that's part of his job, but people calling him an idiot is unfair.

He makes a few gaffs but he has a sharp mind.

People who are good to their core often make gaffs as they feel no need to filter themselves.

The likes of Haughey and Bertie were much more careful.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121395551#Comment_121395551

I don't care about gaffs. I care that he has polarised a huge section of the public AGAINST environmentally sound ideas through his manner of implementing/communicating

orangerhyme

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121395623#Comment_121395623

Can you give examples? Do you mean carbon tax, the national herd, turf cutting?

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121395623#Comment_121395623

Took no cognisance of the bind a lot of the public were in financially and insisted on penalising them for no net gain for the planet bar fuzzy feelgoods while ignoring bigger offenders who should have been tackled first.

Had they activated for that rather than the former they could have grown the party. Alas I think it is the political wilderness for them next time out. I think then what will happen is mainstream parties will finish completely embracing the green agenda as they are increasingly mandated to do by EU and UN directives rendering a specific Green Party a bit redundant.

L1011

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121395643#Comment_121395643

Mindlessly encouraging/incentivising people to buy diesel cars and wood burners (and financially punishing those that didn't in the case of diesel) from their last time in Government aren't forgotten.

orangerhyme

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121395660#Comment_121395660

The UK government had the same policy on diesel cars. They say they were misled by the car industry.

Wood burners were considered renewable and sustainable, but now we know the fumes are deadly. Also forestry provides good income on marginal land in rural areas, so it seemed win-win.

The science changes and they change with it.

In the future people will be asking why didn't we transition from fossil fuels to renewable energy faster. We had all the technology.

L1011

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121395714#Comment_121395714

The tide had gone out on the science before they were pushed here. We knew diesel cars produced significant amounts NOx and the risks of NOx from the acid rain issues of the 1980s, we knew that wood burning caused problems

The Greens weren't following the science, they were blindly following actions other Green parties had done decades earlier.

The Irish Green Party is the most centrist/centre-right and least scientifically competent Green Party in Europe based on actions and performance.

BlueSkyDreams

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121395714#Comment_121395714

"The science changes and they change with it."

Very true and why everything they see is taken with a pinch of green salt.

Its impossible to generate a large following from that position.

The Greens will be inconsequential in the election.

orangerhyme

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121395931#Comment_121395931

Catherine Martin's seat is 100% safe.

Every other seat is up for grabs, so not complete annihilation like 2011, but close enough.

Augme

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121394322#Comment_121394322

FG are centre right. That's their preferred position and always has been. Soc Dems could easily dove tail with them in the same way Labour did that basically destroyed the Labour party as a political force forever. The big question is whether Soc Dems would be willing to do the same. I doubt t it myself but one can never tell.

satguy

GP = FG on bikes,, every GP vote is an EX FG vote.

With SF looking so strong this time around, FG voters that might have floated back and forth FG / GP ,, will now stick with FG.

This means GP will more than likely be wiped out at the next GE,, and good riddance to them too.. They might never win another seat again.

steinbock123

Last election, some people wanted to protest vote against the FFFG government, but would never ever give a vote to the shinners, so they voted for the Green Party. Result : carbon taxes and bloody bike lanes and speed humps everywhere.

So next time , these same people again won’t vote for the shinners, but they also won’t vote Green Party again, so I foresee a rise in the FFFG vote, and also a rise for a smaller party who run sufficient candidates.