Will the greens be in government after the next general election?

thejuggler

So we will have a general election in the next year or so. Will the Green Party be in government next time around (as part of a coalition) ? Just trying to assess the likelihood of a green minister for transport for the next 6 years and how that will hinder development of the roads network.

Podge_irl

There is highly unlikely to be any shift away from the 2/3 PT 1/3 Roads funding formula that has now been adopted no matter who is in power.

Widdensushi

To be in government you need to be elected TD, they will have some but will have a bad general election, they are the government scapegoat to many people,it will take a couple of elections for the taint to wear off again,so I think any parties forming a government would be reluctant to involve them unless there are no other options.

TheClubMan

Hopefully common sense prevails and they're voted out...

thinkabouit

Nope!

thejuggler

I fear that their support may be needed to make up the numbers after the GE - all govt parties likely to come back weaker. Maybe FF will be tempted to join forces with labour and/or Sinn Fein if the numbers don’t add up with FG and the Greens. Interesting times ahead either way.

Flaneur OBrien

I highly doubt they will return many TD's as they lost too many active campaigners who believed they should not have gone into govt with FF/FG. That's a lot of knowledge and trust gone.

They also will see their transfers affected as the "Vote Left, Transfer Left" crowd will hopefully now realise that our Green Party is not a left wing party.

L1011

I'm not certain they'll have any TDs in the first place. Shift away from them + a number of them benefited from SF transfers that won't exist next time

Flaneur OBrien

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121388818#Comment_121388818

I’d say Catherine will be safe enough. Her middle class constituents will vote green for conscience.

SuperBowserWorld

Clean air, soil, water, environment for now and future generations should be the highest priority.

Regardless of who you vote for.

Geuze

Here are two projections:

Flaneur OBrien

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121390184#Comment_121390184

Looks like a SF/FF govt will be a sure bet.

orangerhyme

I'm hoping the current government stay in power but I'm not confident of that happening.

Although obviously not perfect and they've made lots of mistakes, there's a huge amount of experience and competence in the current government. Also all the personal connections they've built up in that time.

I really like the work Eamon Ryan is doing. Also the housing crisis is at an inflection point too.

I don't trust SF in power whatsoever, but maybe if they're in coalition with FF, it might keep them under control.

Any party that has the likes of Johnathan Dowdall and Paddy Holohan as councillors I want nothing to do with.

Brussels Sprout

I think it's unlikely and even if they do it'll be as a rump party with only 2 or 3 seats. They certainly won't have the same influence as they did in this current government. I don't think they'll be wiped out either like they were in 2011. They'll just retreat back to their core base of south Dublin. If they're not part of the next government then I believe they'll grow rapidly in opposition and will form a significant part of the government after that.

orangerhyme

The Green Party seems to come and go in waves. This time the tide will go out for them. Their core vote is middle class urban types and young people. I think young people will switch to SF. The middle urban types will be worried about SF so will vote FF/FG.

Their rural public transport scheme is very good but won't result in any seats as they'll never be popular in rural areas.

I hope lots of their policies stay in place though.

600 people a week are getting domestic solar now. That's 31,200 a year.

Fred Cryton

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121388005#Comment_121388005

Not so sure about that, it was hammered out as part of the FF/FG/Greens coalition deal. The one thing politicians love is opening new roads so I'd expect thats the first thing to be jettisoned if the Greens in opposition (hopefully).

Fred Cryton

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/2058323274/will-the-greens-be-in-government-after-the-next-general-election

You're assuming the Green party will still exist after the next election. Ivan Yates says they could drop down to between 0 and 2 seats.

The ideal would be FF/FG & rural independents. Might finally see some progress on the M20.

BlueSkyDreams

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121390682#Comment_121390682

FFG more likley.

Why would they let SF in?

FFG to make up the numbers with Soc Dems or Indies.

BlueSkyDreams

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121391511#Comment_121391511

I dont see new road being a priority unless they are to facilitate bus/cycle travel.

The govt will be discouraging car use, regardless of whether the Greens are in govt or not.

Podge_irl

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121391511#Comment_121391511

I'm not sure of anything in politics! But a focus on general Green issues and public transport in general is prevalent in all party's manifestoes/plans at this stage.

I would expect some changing around the edges but ultimately the main transport projects should (hopefully) still go ahead and the only major road project still to be built is the M20.

Environmental impacts are something that needs to be taken account of in new road projects (as per the Galway bypass) so it's not as easy as just switching back to opening new roads everywhere. Work on existing road infrastructure is easier, but you get far less kudos for that too.

BlueSkyDreams

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121390996#Comment_121390996

True that some Green voters will move to FFG to keep SF out.

I dont see the Greens figuring at all in the next election.

orangerhyme

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121391511#Comment_121391511

Our road network is pretty much complete.

The only big projects are N20 Cork-Limerick, Galway Ring Rd and Cork north ring.

The rest is just bypasses and upgrades.

orangerhyme

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121391521#Comment_121391521

Out of their 12 TDs, how many will keep their seats?

Eamon Ryan, Catherine Martin, Neasa Hourigan, Brian Leddin, Roderick O'Gorman, Malcolm Noonan, Ossian Smyth, Joe O'Brien, Marc Ó Cathasaigh, Patrick Costello, Francis Duffy, Steven Matthews

I still see them keeping 5 or 6 seats.

It's hard to know.

Safe : ER, CM, JOB, NH

Close : OS

Gone: ROG, MN, BL, MOC, PC, FD, SM

ROG is definitely gone although I like him.

Akrasia

A week is a long time in Politics is a massive cliche, but given how Sinn Fein are hoovering up seats like there's no tomorrow, any swing in their popularity could have big effects downstream for the smaller parties.

The greens can also pick up a lot of votes or transfers if there's a big climate change news story in the run up to the election.

Eg, a major storm or flooding event in the week before the election, and 2024 is very likely to be the hottest year of all time with the El Nino continuing well into next year, with that comes extreme weather, and that could focus the mind of a lot of people coming up to a general election

https://www.sciencealert.com/heat-in-2024-will-probably-leap-to-a-whole-new-level-expert-warns

Flaneur OBrien

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121391536#Comment_121391536

Because SD won’t go into power with FG/FF. Indies that large would be a major pain and you’d be looking at a new election in less than 18 months.

orangerhyme

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121391774#Comment_121391774

The SDs would definitely go into power with FFG. Everyone wants to be in power. They can be bought off in negotiations.

The question is if they had a choice between SF or FFG, who would they choose?

Seth Brundle

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121391774#Comment_121391774

Have they (the current leadership) confirmed that?

It is a bit pointless ruling out any potential government parties if you want any of your policies to be enacted but Leo seems to think the SDs are now open to sharing power...

https://www.thejournal.ie/fine-gael-social-democrats-6169393-Sep2023/

GerardKeating

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121389061#Comment_121389061

..

orangerhyme

The Greens can point at a long list of policies they've implemented.

The thing is people don't care too much about Climate Change even if their home or business has been flooded.

paddyisreal

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121391580#Comment_121391580

job is touch and go, louis reilly had a huge surplus the last time and sf will run 2. nessa hourigan will be in trouble also. I think they will keep 2....

orangerhyme

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121391967#Comment_121391967

It's difficult to know. I don't know their perception at local level.

Neasa Hourigan and JOB both come across very well to me but who knows.

SF will definitely rise on a populist wave.

I'm hoping that the current government stay in place but they'll need the SDs to form a majority. They did perform an economic miracle and the housing situation is a symptom of that.

I like Malcolm Noonan also but I'm not sure how he's perceived at a local level.

I like the GP so I might be in denial.