The 14th Annual Boards.ie White Christmas Thread (Christmas 2023)

Kermit.de.frog

Most likely outcome around the Christmas period looks like a polar maritime flow which can deliver especially this time of year. I think it looks actually quite promising in the north and west right now. Long way to go though.

Donegal Ken

18Z Gfs is nuts. Looks like it's picking up on that low the ECMWF model has been showing on and off too very stormy looking.

InAtFullBack

Two runs in a row suggesting decent chances of a white Christmas! (12z and 18z)

InAtFullBack

Strange, this low should blow up owing to the thermal gradient, but whimpers out and slips in across Britany.

Leg End Reject

From now until the big day

InAtFullBack

Battleground on the 28th, windy and snowy for many areas. 😲

Donegal Ken

Gfs finishes of the night on shots 😂🍻

mcburns07

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121489216#Comment_121489216

Ah the torment of a weather fan

Rebelbrowser

Again to mention the great discussions also at https://www.boards.ie/discussion/2058325256/fi-charts-t120-onwards-winter-2023-2024-read-mod-note-in-first/p5

suffice it to say, in the words of Michael Buble, It's beginning to look a lot (well a little) like a (white) Christmas.....

WolfeEire

Probability (%) of 850hpa being -5c or lower from Dec 21st to 29th

Rebelbrowser

MTC's take this morning....

"...NEXT WEEK in the run up to the Christmas holiday, this bland and dry weather picture is likely to change fairly rapidly towards middle or end of the week, and latest guidance suggests colder air will establish itself around 21st with very strong west to northwest winds associated with a fast-moving cold front. Colder air will follow for several days. When stronger Atlantic lows begin to arrive they will be doing battle with this colder air, so a few intervals of wintry or mixed precipitation are possible, especially around 23-24 Dec. It could become stormy at any point between Christmas and New Years. With any luck there will be a few festive snowflakes without disruptions but keep in mind that the bland pattern of the near future could be replaced by challenging travel conditions on some days. We'll know the details better as we get closer to the holiday period...."

Rebelbrowser

Separately, GFS for Christmas Eve isn't too shabby...

WolfeEire

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121493373#Comment_121493373

My White Christmas at Ballyhaise prediction in the Monthly Forecast Competition is holding for now anyway.

You are going to have a different chart for Christmas Day after every run between now and then. The next few days of model output will vary from widespread snow to none. The trend remains for there to be unstable polar maritime airflow of Ireland up to and including Christmas Eve at least.

pauldry

Met Eireanns 10 day Atlantic forecast now goes out to Christmas day and shows a NW wind dominating much of the time and high precipitation totals in the North and West. Not really committing to anything else yet but nothing spectacular on their charts. Could be an odd day of wintry showers before Christmas 22nd to 24th period.

InAtFullBack

Graphcast by Google suggests a cool northwesterly drift bringing a few early showers to the north but expect these to be of rain, perhaps wintry inland and over high ground. High pressure looks set to build in from the west giving a mostly dry day away from the north east.

Rebelbrowser

Some potential in the charts today. Even the best model, the ECM, while not playing ball, has real cold very close by on Christmas day. Not ruling it out with, now, just 9 days to go....

esposito

12z GFS below and we have a seasonal Christmas Day at least. Mainly dry and no snow though.

WolfeEire

The UKMO has polar maritime air pushing down across Ireland on the 23rd. Will likely hang on into Christmas Day too.

JanuarySnowstor

Someone said Joanna Donnelly called a green Christmas earlier on weather for the week with nothing remotely wintry in the outlook. She's either very brave or very stupid! Time will tell!

WolfeEire

GFS ensembles for 12z (bottom) colder compared to morning run (top)

giveitholly

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121506743#Comment_121506743

Yeah she mentioned Christmas day in the forecast 1 today. Called it as being a quite benign day

nacho libre

UKMO pick of bunch this evening. It looks like it's going to be seasonal at least anyway, unless there are more changes to come due to the evil little low way out to the North West

JanuarySnowstor

She went even further this evening 'remaining mild into Christmas day' Now I know Met Eireann won't ramp but she could at least hold off with charts showing different options. She's actually giving an inaccurate forecast if you go by majority of models. Let's hope she incorrect and called out over it too!

WolfeEire

All models at lunchtime on Christmas Eve

SpitfireIV

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121507490#Comment_121507490

I'd wager she'll be proved right in the end 😫

WolfeEire

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121507644#Comment_121507644

Met Éireann cannot afford to be wrong. It's their business to be correct, so to be bullish about it is ominous for any potential Christmas cold snap. Their analysis is based on the ECM in the main and they are endowed with endless more data than what is freely available to us. ECMWF, though tracking a tad cooler than the 00z run, would suggest a 'benign' Christmas Day. In my far less educated opinion, I am surprised that they are so bullish 8 days out when mild is currently the less likely outcome. Either way, it ain't over until that fat azores high sings.

JanuarySnowstor

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121507632#Comment_121507632

Not one has us in a mild Southwesterly as per Johanna forecast! They are paid professionals, it just ain't good enough that she would say mild up to and over Christmas

In contrast countryfile called it cold with wintry showers and lots of uncertainty! The correct forecast after analysis of charts

WolfeEire

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121507733#Comment_121507733

You are correct. My own thoughts when she said it were "They obviously have fairly good data to back this up". In fairness, the key to forecasting for Ireland is to do so with a mild bias as to have such means you are normally proven correct. If, in this case, Met Eireann are proven wrong then there won't be too much of fuss as 'Irish people does love da shnow.' Either way, I will be intrigued to see what happens over the next 48 hours or so as I would not expect there to be any real doubt around the mild/cold Christmas debate from Wednesday morn on.

Rebelbrowser

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121507632#Comment_121507632

That's a great post Wolfie. Not giving up hope yet. Agree it's hard to see how met.ie could be so bullish on a mild Christmas, 8 days out, with those charts. Of course its far more likely to be mild in this country but you could easily get a Christmas day 2004 out of those charts

WolfeEire

The 'outlier' 18z GFS op run drops the cold until the 27th and has it lasting through to New Years Eve. Some notable pressure changes in the GEFS mean including a more southerly track for the Atlantic High. Looks like a massive spread amongst members for Christmas Day ranging from bitter cold to torchy. Subtle alterations to what that Atlantic high does are producing dramatic changes to output run to run. Overall mean temps for Christmas Day will be a tad higher up to Dec 25th overall compared to the 12z.

Almost a 20c 850hpa spread in members for six days time (23rd) underlines the uncertainty.