The 14th Annual Boards.ie White Christmas Thread (Christmas 2023)

Rebelbrowser

Well a day later than usual, but we're back baby!

Its that time of year again, when with Halloween over us, thoughts turn now to the next big event on the horizon - yup Christmas is coming and thus its time to re-open our White Christmas thread for 2023!

Last year was yet another bust. And let's face it, this year will be too. We already know it will be 14c with intermittent rain on Christmas day. It always is these days. But this is a thread for hopeless, nay baseless, optimism so let's delude ourselves for a few weeks that this year will be different....

This thread is going since 2010, the first is still available at - https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/show...php?p=68686802 but in fact I found White Christmas threads dating back to 2004 (when there was a White Christmas for many...) at https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/show....php?p=2209623 . Some familiar names posted in that thread too I note!

As usual this thread is solely concerned with the weather over the Christmas period, primarily 24 & 25 December and, in particular, is concerned with whether it might snow on Christmas day itself.

The last white Christmas (as in lying snow) for most of us was 2010 of course. However I don't think there was any Christmas day snowfall that year. The last actual technically correct white Christmas (1cm of falling snow at one of our airports I think?) for most of us was 2004. That's 19 years ago, so statistically we are way overdue a white one this year (Met.ie say that historically Dublin airport gets a technically correct white Christmas every 5.9 years).

A good article is at https://www.newstalk.com/news/white-christmases-rare-ireland-happen-937867 .

The brilliant white Christmas page on TWO - https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/forecast/christmas-weather-forecast - actually has weather charts for every Christmas day since 1948. Well worth looking at.

It would be great if we could actually get to a situation where, say, 5 days out from Christmas day it looked like we had proper cold upper temperatures forecast to be over us for Xmas day and thus a decent chance of snow. We’ve never had that on this thread, save for 2010 – and in fact in 2010 most of us had snow on the ground 5 days out and could see it wasn’t going to melt by the big day, so there was no drama then either.

Right, enough intro, let's talk weather.

The CFS (a long range weather model of doubtful accuracy) is probably the best source at this stage for making any sort of guess as to what weather we might have on the big day. At present it shows as follows for the big day:-

No snow there, but relatively seasonal and dry. You'd take it, let's face it.

But we don't aim for reality here, we are all for searching for glimmers of hope that it will look like this on Christmas morning...

That's a photo supposedly of Mayo but no idea where... it looks rather generic to me so it may not even be Ireland!

Anyway, that's all for now. Anyone should feel free to post on, and update, this thread. I will do it every week or so for now (unless there are any particularly titillating charts in the mean time) but it would be great if others did it too.

Ciao for now.

Oh, and happy Christmas!😉

mcburns07

The Coca Cola ad and the Rebelbrowser Boards White Christmas thread, two iconic signs that Christmas is coming :)

nacho libre

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121315730#Comment_121315730

Yes, we all like seeing this thread appear every year. Hopefully this is the year the white gold finally falls widely on the 25th.

mcburns07

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121317489#Comment_121317489

At this stage i'd take seasonal temperatures!

nacho libre

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121317502#Comment_121317502

Well rime frost, like we had for that cold spell last December , would do. Just as long it's not mild and wet!

almostthere12

Snow ideally but at least some frost!

pauldry

It's definitely going to snow this Christmas isn't it. Its been weird year.

InAtFullBack

When I see these White Christmas threads pop up, I often do wonder if there is a similar thread on some Russian, Alaskan or Canadian forum looking at the chances of a Green Christmas. 😆

aidanodr

I suppose we should mention El Niño here? Which has already started?

https://www.euronews.com/green/2023/09/03/will-europe-see-more-snow-this-winter-heres-how-el-nino-could-affect-our-weather

El Niño events typically last between nine to 12 months but can persist for years, peaking between November and January. The current event is expected to continue into 2024 with experts predicting it will grow stronger in the coming months and end in spring next year.

Re SNOW?

“El Niño years have a tendency to have a mild wet and westerly start to winter (Nov-Dec) and a colder, drier end to winter (Jan-Mar) across most of northern Europe,” says Professor Adam Scaife, head of long-range prediction at the UK’s Met Office.

The words mild and drier :D

Rebelbrowser

Well with LESS THAN 1000 HOURS TO GO (!!!!!!), the excitement is palpable. ish.

We are still really relying just on the CFS which fires out new charts daily. As of now the charts it shows for the big day are like so....

To my untrained eye this has us between HP to the south and a stream of lows slightly to our north. No man's land largely, with high single digit day time figures generally. No snow forecast but not the worst set up for getting a glancing blow off a NW'ly with sufficiently cold uppers (typically you need -8 or less 850hPa temps in that set up) to get snow for some. Actually the CFS suggests it would then be pretty cool for the week to NY but nothing to write home about.

Anyway, just about enough time for a few twists and turns yet. Still plenty time for the M8 to look like this on Christmas morning...

bazlers

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121371260#Comment_121371260

Nice one rebel, 3 to 4 ft of level snow to fall between the 23rd _ 25th with 20ft drifts and get snowed in for 10 days is all I ask :)

Rebelbrowser

From today's indo...

"...Will we have a white Christmas? Met Éireann’s long-range forecast indicates warm and wet December

Ralph Riegel

Today at 11:43

Ireland’s odds for a White Christmas have lengthened with forecasters indicating the country faces a warmer but wetter than normal festive season.

Betting firms now rank Ireland at odds of only 12-1 to have snowfall on December 25 - disappointing youngsters but spelling good news for those intending to travel for the holidays.

Bookmakers William Hill judged Ireland as one of its outside bets to have a blanket of snow on Christmas morning - in contrast to Edinburgh and Glasgow where it ranks the chance of a 'White Christmas' at 2-1.

Manchester is ranked at 4-1 while London's odds are only slightly better than Dublin's at 11-1.

Ireland's lengthened odds of a 'White Christmas' came as Met Éireann's long-range forecast indicated that, over the next few weeks, Ireland is likely to have warmer weather than normal albeit with heavier than usual rainfall.

From November 27 until Christmas week, Ireland's weather will be particularly impacted by a warm Atlantic air mass.

"A weaker signal for higher than typical temperatures extends into the second week (November 27 to December 3. A high pressure anomaly stays in place, moving towards the east allowing expected precipitation to increase along west facing coasts, most likely in the form of showers," a spokesperson explained.

"No strong signal for atmospheric pressure extends to the third week of the extended outlook (December 4-10, climate norms should be anticipated for this week, although there is a signal that wetter conditions may prevail in a slightly warmer than typical air mass."

"A low pressure anomaly in the final week (December 11-17) of the extended outlook suggests a wet start to December with the warmer air mass expected to maintain an influence over the region leading to higher than typical rainfall accumulations."

On average, Ireland has a White Christmas every six years.

However, if there isn't snowfall on Christmas Day in 2023, it will have been 13 years since Ireland had a true, nationwide December 25 snowfall.

By the traditional measure of a defined depth of snow covering the ground at Dublin Airport on December 25, Ireland has had nine white Christmases over the past 60 years - 1964, 1970, 1980, 1993, 1995, 1999, 2004, 2009 and 2010.

However, by the measure of any quantity of snow falling anytime over Christmas Day, there have been 17 days since 1961 which rank as a white Christmas - 1961, 1962, 1964, 1966, 1970, 1980, 1984, 1990, 1993, 1995, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2004, 2009 and 2010.

Ireland's last white Christmas in 2010 ranked as one of the most spectacular with up to 27cm of snow - almost a foot - falling overnight until 9am on December 25.

That ranks as the deepest snowfall ever recorded in modern times for Christmas Day.

In contrast, the UK enjoys a 'White Christmas' roughly twice as often as its more temperate neighbour.

The UK Met Office said northern England and Scotland had the highest chance of snowfall over Christmas though precise forecasts have yet to be compiled.

"Since 1960, around half of the years have seen at least 5pc of the network record snow falling on December 25. This means we can probably expect more than half of all Christmas Days to be a 'White Christmas'. Technically, 2021 was the last 'White Christmas' in the UK with 6pc of stations recording snow falling, but less than 1pc of stations reported any snow lying on the ground."

"Before that, 2020 was also a white Christmas, with 6pc of stations recording snow falling. However, only 4pc of stations actually reported any snow lying on the ground."...."

A fair bit on there that I'd take issue with (was there widespread snow on 25/12/2010?) but thought I'd post it anyway.....

pauldry

High Pressure on today's CFS pin on the donkey forecast. However the run from today until then does see cold avoiding Ireland mostly except briefly in early December so probably a day like today for the big one. 12c I'd imagine isn't too unrealistic a forecast.

DOCARCH

12c is a good default Christmas forecast! 😀

Elmer Blooker

No idea what Xmas day ‘23 will be like.

I read that rebelbrowser post and for the record NO snow fell in Ireland on Dec 24-25th 2010, we all woke up to a clear Xmas morning and nothing fell overnight until 9am.

Rebelbrowser

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121416005#Comment_121416005

My recollection too. Though I'm still bitter that with embedded -10 and lower temps for a week plus leading up to 26/12/2010 there was no snow preceeding the rain that day. The Atlantic just ate the embedded cold for breakfast....

arctictree

There was ice forming on the Liffey in Dublin city centre that day. Another few days of cold and we would have had a frozen river...

Rebelbrowser

Just a quick update. In truth lots of uncertainty over what mid December will bring, let alone the Christmas period. Some long range forecasts suggest wet Atlantic sourced weather will dominate from the second week of December but the CFS below suggests very dry and quite mild for Christmas day. Neither what we want on this thread. Loads and loads of time left though....

We will start to get more forecasting sources as we move into medium term forecasting.

Rebelbrowser

Well its December, so time to start cranking things up! Is there anything festive on the CFS this morning? Afraid not... Look away unless cold rain is your thing....

Sill, 24 days to go, and we are still 9 days away from the first of the global models, GFS, showing guidance out to 25 December. Still not giving up hope of...

(that's St Finnbarr's Cathedral in Cork, taken in March 2018 - one of my favourite ever snow pictures...)

Leg End Reject

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121441747#Comment_121441747

Still not giving up hope of...

InAtFullBack

This morning's CFS:

A stern northwest wind, some wintry showers and widespread too...

Rebelbrowser

I won't cross post but there is some good analysis of trends for the run up to the Big Day at https://www.boards.ie/discussion/2058325256/fi-charts-t120-onwards-winter-2023-2024-read-mod-note-in-first/p2 .

Rebelbrowser

Tomorrow we finally get to 25 December on the GFS model. Yay! Alas, current indications are for HP to be in control in the run up to the big day...

nacho libre

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121473704#Comment_121473704

Very disappointing. The high just hanging around for days. I hadn't looked at the models for a bit, so I was hoping when I opened this thread it would be showing the Arctic floodgates opening in time for the big day. Ah well.

InAtFullBack

The first GFS of Christmas Day (Midday) 2023 is out...

Overview: A light to moderate west breeze, rather cloudy though some breaks in the south and southeast. Highs around 8c widely - and mostly dry apart from coastal mist on the west and southwest coast. Snow confined to the ground in the Scottish Highlands only.

esposito

Latest from the GFS op for Christmas Day. Cool enough probably 4-8c. Coolest in the east and north.

esposito

Comparing the latest GFS 6z run to yesterday’s , Christmas Day is milder. Probably 7-11c so definitely no snow on this run. Lots of changes to come though I’m sure.

Stephen’s day looks colder with a polar maritime shot. Snow on mountains perhaps.

nacho libre

We are in the game for something seasonal Christmas week now. It could be mixed wintry precipitation for most, or if we are lucky some places might see the white stuff in the run up to the big day on or on the big day itself.

nacho libre

Snow for some!

esposito

Take with pinch of salt but… a white Christmas is possible for some on Christmas Day!

nacho libre

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121487707#Comment_121487707

Yes, I certainly wouldn't be backing it as a dead cert, but we are certainly in with a shout at least, which makes a nice change