Storm Agnes Wed 27 Sept 2023.

It's going to be a close run thing.

pad199207

GFS still gusty

PukkaStukka

Gerry Murphy mentioned East & South at greatest task from wind. That opinion is consistent with what some models are showing here

SouthWesterly

If I hide will it just not exist 😱

Can I walk into my garden safely between 9.05 and 9.06? 😁

JanuarySnowstor

No getting away from the fact the South Coast is at risk of some very stormy weather, combined with middle of day. Let's see what 06z gfs and icon do...

dsmythy

We're still 48 hours away. Any sort of wobble with that low direction, either of the low or isobars, could shift the risk dramatically both ways.

JanuarySnowstor

Icon remains stormy across the South Coast. For now I would say Orange across the South and a red marine warning just along South Coast.

pad199207

ICON looks a smidgen north for now

adocholiday

Icon looks a bit further north but a bit slacker. Still some red and widespread orange level gusts for parts of the SW and S but that model tends to overcook the wind speeds in general so may still not be quite as bad. GFS 6z rolling out now.

aisling86

Warnings have been issued….updates to warnings to follow!!

pad199207

Status Yellow - Rain warning for Carlow, Dublin, Kilkenny, Wexford, Wicklow, Cork, Kerry, Waterford

• Met Éireann Weather Warning
• Heavy rain on Wednesday.
• 
  
• Potential impacts:
• 
  
• • Difficult travel conditions
• • Localised flooding
• • Poor visibility
• 
  
• Updates to warnings to follow.
• Valid: 07:00 Wednesday 27/09/2023 to 00:00 Thursday 28/09/2023
• Issued: 10:39 Monday 25/09/2023

Status Yellow - Wind warning for Leinster and Munster

• Met Éireann Weather Warning
• Becoming very windy on Wednesday with very strong and gusty southerly winds, veering westerly later on.
• 
  
• Potential impacts:
• 
  
• • Coastal flooding
• • Difficult travel conditions
• • Power outages
• • Some fallen trees
• 
  
• Updates to warnings to follow.
• Valid: 07:00 Wednesday 27/09/2023 to 00:00 Thursday 28/09/2023
• Issued: 10:34 Monday 25/09/2023
• 
  

Chris_5339762

GFS basically unchanged from previous but a very small tad deeper.

JanuarySnowstor

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121153875#Comment_121153875

Yes more or less the same

Robwindstorm

I wonder will this system when it develops to our southwest, elongate with twin centres later on approach. This has happened regularly with predicted dartboard storm systems of late. Maybe it will hold its shape better with tropical mixtures but then these tend to fill more quickly giving just a very wet and windy day. We had plenty of those already this year, but lets wait and see what happens .

pad199207

Named as Agnes now

aidanodr

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121153983#Comment_121153983

Yip

https://twitter.com/metoffice/status/1706252898982600899

So thats looking like 96KPH+ in the south / coastal Cork/Kerry areas?

aidanodr

:D

From https://corksafetyalerts.com/news/storm-agnes-has-officially-been-named-yellow-weather-warning/

JanuarySnowstor

Strange that Ireland gets the brunt of it but UK Met name it

DOCARCH

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121154219#Comment_121154219

At the moment looks like SW UK will get more of the brunt of it than us!

highdef

The system looks to be filling quite rapidly as it approaches/passes over the country. This is good news as a filling system usually results in less gustiness to the winds and lower gust speeds overall compared to a system that is still deeping.

Dazler97

Shame Ireland didn't name it I stayed up till 5am to see if they would have but obviously didn't, I think orange warnings will be issued for Cork, Waterford and wexford , I'd say the Met Office where like why isn't Ireland naming it it's going by their south coast etc

dsmythy

That's a relatively early yellow warning from MÉ. Those wind speeds in the East tend to cause more disruption than out West.

Does the UK met not need stronger than yellow warnings to issue storm names usually?

JanuarySnowstor

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121154252#Comment_121154252

Which model shows the UK getting it worse?

An Ri rua

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121154488#Comment_121154488

The further West you go from Dublin, the less panicked and disrupted, by yellow, orange and red, folks tend to be. But then, there's less bicycles in use (and window-boxes).

pauldry

It's a damp squid.

An Ri rua

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121154720#Comment_121154720

They always are, even when they're being eaten.

nacho libre

With a strong El Nino we will hopefully have a proper storm at some point in the next few months.

.Donegal.

I see the Uk met office updated their warning to include NW Scotland in the wind warning, that’s all of Scotland included except for Orkney and Shetland. Strange one. 89mph was recorded in Scotland yesterday and there was no warning issued. On the sauce in Exeter?

highdef

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121154720#Comment_121154720

I see what you did there 🤣

Meteorite58

Much higher rainfall totals showing up now, rough day with that wind driven rain.