Does this look bad this far out?
It's going to be a close run thing.
GFS still gusty
Gerry Murphy mentioned East & South at greatest task from wind. That opinion is consistent with what some models are showing here
If I hide will it just not exist 😱
Can I walk into my garden safely between 9.05 and 9.06? 😁
No getting away from the fact the South Coast is at risk of some very stormy weather, combined with middle of day. Let's see what 06z gfs and icon do...
We're still 48 hours away. Any sort of wobble with that low direction, either of the low or isobars, could shift the risk dramatically both ways.
Icon remains stormy across the South Coast. For now I would say Orange across the South and a red marine warning just along South Coast.
ICON looks a smidgen north for now
Icon looks a bit further north but a bit slacker. Still some red and widespread orange level gusts for parts of the SW and S but that model tends to overcook the wind speeds in general so may still not be quite as bad. GFS 6z rolling out now.
Warnings have been issued….updates to warnings to follow!!
GFS basically unchanged from previous but a very small tad deeper.
Yes more or less the same
I wonder will this system when it develops to our southwest, elongate with twin centres later on approach. This has happened regularly with predicted dartboard storm systems of late. Maybe it will hold its shape better with tropical mixtures but then these tend to fill more quickly giving just a very wet and windy day. We had plenty of those already this year, but lets wait and see what happens .
Named as Agnes now
Yip
So thats looking like 96KPH+ in the south / coastal Cork/Kerry areas?
:D
From https://corksafetyalerts.com/news/storm-agnes-has-officially-been-named-yellow-weather-warning/
Strange that Ireland gets the brunt of it but UK Met name it
At the moment looks like SW UK will get more of the brunt of it than us!
The system looks to be filling quite rapidly as it approaches/passes over the country. This is good news as a filling system usually results in less gustiness to the winds and lower gust speeds overall compared to a system that is still deeping.
Shame Ireland didn't name it I stayed up till 5am to see if they would have but obviously didn't, I think orange warnings will be issued for Cork, Waterford and wexford , I'd say the Met Office where like why isn't Ireland naming it it's going by their south coast etc
That's a relatively early yellow warning from MÉ. Those wind speeds in the East tend to cause more disruption than out West.
Does the UK met not need stronger than yellow warnings to issue storm names usually?
Which model shows the UK getting it worse?
The further West you go from Dublin, the less panicked and disrupted, by yellow, orange and red, folks tend to be. But then, there's less bicycles in use (and window-boxes).
It's a damp squid.
They always are, even when they're being eaten.
With a strong El Nino we will hopefully have a proper storm at some point in the next few months.
I see the Uk met office updated their warning to include NW Scotland in the wind warning, that’s all of Scotland included except for Orkney and Shetland. Strange one. 89mph was recorded in Scotland yesterday and there was no warning issued. On the sauce in Exeter?
I see what you did there 🤣
Much higher rainfall totals showing up now, rough day with that wind driven rain.
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