Storm Agnes Wed 27 Sept 2023.

JanuarySnowstor

So the first one out the blocks this evening is the Icon. Deeper and a nudge West on its previous run. Stormy for a time across the South.

Now over to the gfs/ukmo

sryanbruen

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121151018#Comment_121151018

It's absolute insanity. Shows wind gusts in excess of 100 kts on the Kerry coast, that's greater than 185 kph and would absolutely smash Debbie. Quite unlikely fortunately.

squarecircles

Looks stronger

JanuarySnowstor

So the 12z gfs has the system stronger on its approach and slightly weaker when it hits compared to 06z run. Stormy across the South, certainly high end orange territory for a while. Moves along very quickly, it's a 4/5 hour event max but coinciding with school end of day etc, you know the drill. Let's see what ukmo does...

JanuarySnowstor

Ukmo much weaker system. The waiting game continues, but doubts there now after that one

GEM, much larger centre which never really develops. I have doubts now that the gfs is right and the more likely version is just wet and windy

Elmer Blooker

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121151261#Comment_121151261

I wouldn’t exactly call it ‘much weaker’, still looks threatening in my opinion.

edit: my mistake, that’s the 0z chart

pureza

It's probably over cooked on average

The fact it's modeled as far east as it is before tracking north and that these systems usual behaviour is to veer north,then doing so this far east means we're unlikely to escape I'd expect

Forecasting where gets a windy day vs a stormy day though,not easy yet with a small tight core

Hooter23

Well if its starting to show the storm stronger as its approaching it means it has more time to change track before it strikes...different forecast but still could be just as bad or worse

JanuarySnowstor

Jma backs gfs and icon in keeping the low deep and potentially stormy!! Ahead of the ecm, It's 50-50 really as to what will happen. ECM up next!

Dazler97

Just seen bbc weather and going by that they said 50mph to 70mph over land and 55mph to 80mph at the coast and the low was situated at kerry then making a northeastern turn slowly, so going by that it will most likely be storm Agnes

Meteorite58

The models look to have the center drifting further south.

As said above ECM totally dropped away with any significant winds on the 06Z, not even hitting yellow level.

UKMO less windy, looking like widespread yellow at this stage.

GFS still about the windiest, similar track but less deep, looks like being in the yellow warning level and Orange for the SW/ S counties perhaps.

ARPEGE very similar to the GFS, strong, widespread Orange warnings with this one.

ICON cross between the GFS and ARPEGE

WRF Hi Res coming into range and looks like the ARPEGE in the early stages.

ECM at this stage seems to be out on its own showing a non event.....it has been showing it to be less deep now for a number of runs...will it correct back a bit and will the other models go a bit more south? Hard to know but inclined to think at this stage in general the models are showing it could be windy or very windy overland but not looking as stormy as earlier runs, still a bit to go .

Meteorite58

ECM showing the storm to fill well to the South of us and to become ragged quite quickly and only giving winds gusting up around 80 km/h along the Southern counties. this scenario would be quite wet for Southern counties.

adocholiday

ECM 12z keeping to form, well South of us

JanuarySnowstor

Odds on now it's a non event with the big 2 agreeing...

As others have said rain may now be the issue rather than wind

nacho libre

Yes, the GFS will be back tracking now. A windy day nothing more looks likely now. It's a pity. I like a good storm. No doubt others will be relieved.

squarecircles

Seems like lately its very difficult to get a good storm,must be the lack of any temperature gradient over the ocean,so after margot,lee,nigel and this bit of energy that split off from ophelia,nothing.gas.

just buckets of rain,exciting,eh.

Meteorite58

Must keep an eye on the Multi Model, leaning more towards windy day over Ireland. Rainfall totals similar to the ECM.

Oscar Bravo

Well south of Ireland

Dazler97

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121152127#Comment_121152127

Still red warnings in Kerry Cork and Waterford going by that ,the eastern flank looks the worst. Still uncertainty about this storm but even with ophelia in 2017 because met eirrean was in touch with the national hurricane centre an advisory was issued 5 days before the storm

CirrusBusiness

+3 on ICON-EU. Place your bets..

Chris_5339762

Icon is often on steroids when it comes to wind speed. Thats almost 180kmh just off Youghal.

Hooter23

Very bad wind almost around the whole storm center...usually the worst of the wind area is much smaller

igCorcaigh

^^ Scary looking charts...

pauldry

Windy.tv which uses ECM

Dazler97

Met eirrean models showing going into kerry then clare and into tipparary

firemansam4

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121152628#Comment_121152628

The windy app I have, maybe its different? Allows me to switch models, it always defaults on ECM, but can be switched to several other models.

GFS:

adocholiday

GFS downgraded now too, keeps the strongest wind off shore.

adocholiday

Further downgrades in the main morning runs. GFS has a smaller wind field and the ECM takes most of the sting out of it altogether

JanuarySnowstor

There is still potential in all models this morning. The storm is very deep off our Southwest Coast and Kerry/Cork still look like getting storm force winds. I would be certain it'll be named today

Meteorite58

Yes a clearer trend for keeping the strongest winds offshore. ARPEGE, UKMO, Icon for a time and ACESS-G stronger than the GFS and ECM but I think WRF is probably in the middle at the moment,

Very strong or stormy off shore and possibly along the coastal fringes, very windy for a time along the SW, S and SE, E coasts. Could be very windy in coastal areas from onshore winds, less so further inland. Could see orange or maybe even red sea area forecasts and possibly Orange along Southern coastal counties for a time, Yellow in at least Munster perhaps. Firming up now. The bulk of Ireland looks to escape the strong winds.

Met Eirean still mindful 'On WEDNESDAY, a deep Atlantic depression will track close to or over Ireland. Exact details of the forecast are still uncertain. But there is the potential for it to be a very windy or stormy day with damaging winds, heavy rain and flooding. Please stay up to date with forecasts and warnings regarding this over the next couple of days. Highest temperatures of 14 to 17 degrees.'