Storm Agnes Wed 27 Sept 2023.

Meteorite58

Mod Note : Thanks amandstu for starting the thread, I will change the thread title now to Watch for storm potential Tues 26 - Wed 27 Sept 2023. Can amend it further if one develops and if/ when we get a better idea of timing.

Meteorite58

Watching the energy from Tropical Storm Ophelia as it glances off the East coast of the US and gets taken along by the Jet over towards us. How will it interact with the other LP systems ? Could be a wet one also, if it keeps the winds South then we could get a lot of rain North of the System, so far models showing somewhere between 20mm to 35mm, GFS 50 mm in parts of the S of the country but a way to go yet. Models certainly pointing towards a lot of energy maybe becoming a storm but if it does form could miss us.

ECM storm off the coast, very windy along the coasts Weds/ Thurs

GFS potential storm well off the S coasts, some strong winds along the coasts

UKMO full on storm overland Weds

ICON Weds storm off the coast, Windy along the coastal areas, some Southern counties windy

GEM Storm Weds, very strong overland

ACCESS-G ( Australian ) Weds Full on storm overland

So the models certainly showing potential for a storm but very early to know for sure of track, strength, projected rainfall accumulations etc

Tides will be starting to get high as the week goes on, Spring tides next weekend .

.Donegal.

Access-G a new model? Never seen it mentioned before.

pauldry

This storm has been showing for days now even weeks back. There's also another Oct 4th that's pretty severe for the North and West. If we are still stormless after the 1st week of October I will be amazed.

Still the one on Wednesday might develop too late to affect us and be a 1987 type storm over England...or not. Wait till Sunday to see if it's still there.

Meteorite58

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121144850#Comment_121144850

Been keeping an eye on it, grand as part of a suite to compare.

Cork2021

Is the storm potential gone!?

adocholiday

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121146505#Comment_121146505

GFS and ECM both in their latest runs keep it well South of us with no significant impact. ICON, UKMO and GEM all going for a strong cross-country storm. As MT said though, there are a lot of factors influencing this so there won't be any certainty for a while yet.

Cork2021

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121146606#Comment_121146606

Thanks

pauldry

It all gets caught in the jet so there could be nothing or a short sharp burst of winds. Nothing set in stone yet but its Trended Southeast a while now. Maybe gales for South and East and nothing elsewhere.

amandstu

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121146895#Comment_121146895

Is there a reason it has trended South so far?

Or are there just too many variables to identify a particular ( or set of) reasons?

squarecircles

Met Eireann alluding to it in their latest forecast...

While details are still uncertain, current indications suggest that WEDNESDAY could be a very windy

or possibly stormy day with heavy rain and very strong winds in all areas for a time.

Meteorite58

ECM 06Z only runs to 01.00 Weds looking very similar now to the UKMO at that time frame, ECM would be more conservative than than the UKMO with wind speeds especially at this range, UKMO often comes down a peg more in line with the ECM and GFS closer to the off, GFS less developed and sends the system in over the UK, Very windy for Southern UK but nothing on how strong the UKMO is.

ACCESS-G very stormy

ICON Stormy

GEM Stormy

UKMO Very stormy

( will change the thread title to Weds )

Meteorite58

This was posted by squarecircles earlier from Met Eireann 'While details are still uncertain, current indications suggest that WEDNESDAY could be a very windy or possibly stormy day with heavy rain and very strong winds in all areas for a time.'

squarecircles

The storm system is much,much stronger, more developed and further north on the latest 12z GFS

coming more inline NOW with what ICON AND UKV ARE SHOWING.

Would be a very severe storm for the south and east if this were to transpire.

squarecircles

the south and east of the country bearing the brunt of it...

Chris_5339762

Arpege in line with GFS too - but with 160kmh gusts around Dingle.

pauldry

Tomorrow there'll be 10 percent more certainty with this. Its on and off the charts half the time. But when met eireann has stormy on forecast it is now more likely there'll be warnings somewhere than not. Hopefully itl pass through pretty fast.

squarecircles

The APERGE model has 100mph gusts hitting the southwest

Cork2021

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121147540#Comment_121147540

And so does the UKMO

highdef

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121147540#Comment_121147540

Already mentioned just two posts back...... Except the speed mentioned was not in British Imperial Units 😜

JanuarySnowstor

I think it's pretty certain now some kind of storm will arrive Wednesday.

How ironic that the US have named this one Ophelia!!

Could we get hammered twice by the same named storm/hurricane

SnowyMuckish

How certain is the track? Will it have any impact further north?

sryanbruen

The highest September wind gusts on record in the Republic of Ireland*

• 16 Sep 1961 181 kph (Debbie)
• 04 Sep 1983 157 kph
• 19 Sep 1975 156 kph
• 19 Sep 2018 146 kph (Ali)
• 29 Sep 1962 139 kph
• 08 Sep 1999 135 kph
• 07 Sep 1974 131 kph
• 21 Sep 1969 131 kph
• 22 Sep 2006 131 kph
• 19 Sep 1989 130 kph

*With special mention to Northern Ireland during Storm Ali in Sep 2018.

Highest sustained winds for September in ROI:

• 16 Sep 1961 122 kph (Debbie)
• 04 Sep 1983 113 kph
• 19 Sep 1975 104 kph
• 07 Sep 1974 96 kph
• 08 Sep 1999 93 kph
• 22 Sep 2006 91 kph
• 12 Sep 2011 91 kph (Katia)

Showing these for context on Irish September wind records given we have a possible stormy period coming up mid-week next week

igCorcaigh

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121147601#Comment_121147601

Could it all happen again?

.Donegal.

ECM

Cork2021

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121147734#Comment_121147734

In simple terms?

squarecircles

oh you just know a bad storm be coming for the rest of the country when the centre of the low slides through Mayo.

nacho libre

Very true about Met Eireann, while this storm may get downgraded yet, its likely some places could have strong to severe winds. I doubt it will be a countrywide storm, though.

adocholiday

ECM looking a bit less lively than the other models. Still red-level gusts across the south of the country but orange level elsewhere. I'd say there will be a few more changes to the models for another day or 2, both Met Eireann and the Met Office in the UK stressing the uncertainty around this so far.

pauldry

Windy.com which uses ECM has a miss....so far