Can Anyone Tell Me Why a Heavy Rail Link to Dublin Airport Can Not be Built in the Short Term?

deirdremf

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121914442#Comment_121914442

One of the reasons that air travel was so expensive was because many companies were happy to send planes around with most of the seats empty, owing to government subsidies for National Airlines. That day is gone, and bums on seats has done more than anything else to bring costs down. In fact charter flights were always fairly cheap for exactly that reason - you could fly cheaply to Mallorca, but not to Madrid. Now the cost is much the same to both because all the aircraft are full.

Of course there are still expensive flights, for those that want comfort, or those who have it paid for by their employer, but that is a separate argument.

Zebra3

Bum on seats and yellow pack contracts for airline and airport staff.

Furze99

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121914709#Comment_121914709

What's this new magic technology that will lift these great machines into the air and propel them across the globe with low costs to the passenger??

If you have it, you could become mega rich if you play your cards right.

Furze99

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121914973#Comment_121914973

Yes... there was an element of that charter flight effect. Anyone who sees my observations here would know I'm not a sycophantic follower of the Greens but I think it should be clear to all that the age of oil fueled transport is going to get increasingly expensive. Low cost aviation fuel with little/ no taxation has driven a lot of growth in recent years and that has to/ will change. Look at a Ryanair 737 now to London say they have 150 paying passengers on board with an average fare of €30 - that's €4500 to cover all the costs of the plane, maintenance, fuel, crew wages, backroom staff etc etc. No way that's sustainable into the future, it's a house of cards at those rates.

So we can agree to disagree, but I think there will be far less demand for Dublin and other airports in years to come. We'll all slowly adjust back to a different lifestyle with less personal travel.

Sam Russell

We have various airports in Ireland - Dublin Cork Shannon Knock plus a few other small ones.

Not one has a rail connection - not even like The West Clare one that Percy French made fun of with his "Are you right there Michael, are you right?".

Why is this? Heathrow has only recently put in a proper rail connection. Gatwick always had one. Luton does not have one.

It appears rail and air are not good bedfellows. All airports have massive, expensive, car parks run by the airport operators - perhaps it is to do with revenue streams.

ArmaniJeanss

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121916011#Comment_121916011

Luton has a reasonably acceptable rail link now. A 1.5km monorail from the airport to the nearest main-line station. A similar concept to that in other European/USA cities where you have to get a short distance 'people-mover' to the train station.

I think you've cherry picked your examples as rail and air are generally 'good bedfellows' - I'd suggest that > 80% of airports in Europe have a rail-link to the nearest city. They also still have car-parks for revenue - people choose travelling by car for comfort/time/convenience reasons, or because the the railway line doesn't go anywhere close to their starting point.

That no Irish airports have rail is, as you know better than me, somewhat related to our failure to build any new rail tracks since independence.

Sam Russell

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121916143#Comment_121916143

The title of this thread asks a question that you suggest the answer is - Because we have built no heavy rail tracks since independence!

Exactly. Time to close the thread so.

Metrolink will provide sufficient rail connection to Dublin Airport and will eventually be built because it has to be. If it is built, there is no case for heavy rail. And anyway, if we planned a heavy rail connection, the Metrolink would be instantly cancelled.

Question - Does Dart count as 'heavy rail'? Well, maybe, but it is not Inter City, is it? What does Dart give us that a metro does not? Well, not a lot if metro can come every 90 seconds. If other major airports can use 'people movers' like Gatwick does, then why bother with more than Metrolink planned for Dublin.

If the Gov could be trusted to build the Metrolink even if the IE planned Clongriiffin Dart spur to the airport had been built before the financial crash, then it would have been a fantastic improvement, but it was felt that IE could not be trusted to run the Luas, let alone a link to the airport. So it never happened.

It is so difficult to any 'good things' in Ireland without protests from the nimby crowed who are opposed to any local developments, or vested interests who want to protect their patch, or the usual retired curmudgeons who are looking for self publicity.

Just remember those who were opposed to the Luas white elephant that no-one would use. Or the opposition to the Luas to be tunneled under the city centre. Once it was built, of course it was the best thing since the sliced pan.

Podge_irl

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121916011#Comment_121916011

Not sure what you count as a "proper" rail connection, but there has been tube access to Heathrow since the 70s and heavy rail access since the 90s.

Sam Russell

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121916859#Comment_121916859

I do not think the tube rail connection was particularly useful. It was slow, and more like a local service, and did not really connect well.

spillit67

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121915851#Comment_121915851

We’ll keep doing what we’re doing until there’s an alternative.

Furze99

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121920212#Comment_121920212

Ah I thought you had a magic bullet. Sure we’ll keep doing what we’re doing but it will get increasingly more expensive and this will drive down demand and therefore no need to spend large sums of public money on expensive transport links to Dublin Airport. Buses will do just fine and capacity is easily adjusted.

bk

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121920823#Comment_121920823

Prices have already increased substantially since pre-covid and record numbers will be using Dublin Airport this year. People want to go on holidays, plus the large numbers of recent immigrants who want to visit family, etc.

Anyway, none of this matters, Metrolink isn’t about Dublin Airport, it is about connecting Swords to Dublin, whose population is expected to grow to 100,000 by 2035 and the other dozen stops along the way.

Furze99

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121921179#Comment_121921179

Sure but as regards Dublin airport, is this a bubble? That is the question. One has to plan ahead.

As regards population centres, no argument - they're not going away.

bk

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121921360#Comment_121921360

Yes, which is why the DAA recently finished building a second runway, are planning for demand at the airport to grow to 40 million (from 33 at the moment) over the next few years and have plans for extensive increase in terminal and aircraft capacity with the new development at the airport.

The projections for the airline industry across Europe is for very large increases is passenger numbers over the next decade, which is why Boeings and Airbus aircraft order books are sold out for years to come.

Heraclius

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121916011#Comment_121916011

Farranfore/Kerry effectively has a rail connection since it isn't a very long walk to the train station. It would probably be a long enough wait for a train though.

Furze99

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121921636#Comment_121921636

Okaaaay! But how will all this growth and therefore these planes be fuelled??

Is no-one looking ahead and doubting that the king has any clothes on?

What do you think yourself? Are we going to continuously come up with oil at reasonable costs?

Lot of talk about 'peak oil' over last several years. What we can see when we look at other extractive industries is that they grind to halt eventually. The post industrial mining heritage is to be found all over.

Zebra3

I’ve been reading about peak oil since the 1980s.

bk

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121921805#Comment_121921805

They will continue to be fuelled with Aviation fuel (yes oil) for the foreseeable future.

Peak oil is nonsense, the world is awash with oil, fracking and shale oil in the US has unlocked vast amounts of oil. Combine that with dropping demand for oil as cars switch the EV, means that oil is cheap and plentiful.

Yes, we will have to pay carbon tax on that fuel, so more expensive flights, but people seem quiet willing to pay that cost. People will pay a bit more for their flight to Spain, then holiday in an expensive hotel in Kerry or dear lord take a ferry!

Just to be clear, demand currently far outstrips capacity in the airline industry. Pretty much every airline is seeing massive demand and they want to add capacity by buying more aircraft (so more routes, frequency, etc.) however Boeing/Airbus are at maximum manufacturing capacity, making every aircraft they can.

Let me put this in context for you, if you ordered a new A320 from Airbus today, it wouldn't arrive until 2030! That is how high demand is, they are booked out for years.

In 2022 the Global airline industry was worth $500 million, it is expected to grow to $1.1 Trillion by 2030.

Furze99

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121922731#Comment_121922731

Hmm.. Boeing don't seem to be doing so well these days. Other reasons you may say, but perhaps fundamentally partly that profit margins are being squeezed and corners to be cut.

bk

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121923692#Comment_121923692

LMAO, Boeing's backlog now stands at 5,600 aircraft and they had record orders in 2023, 1,456 aircraft ordered!

Boeing's fundamental issues was greedy management making short term decisions to make record profits and boost stock price at the cost of quality and good engineering. In other words the complete opposite of what you said.

The history here is when Boeing and McDonnell Douglas merged, it was a reverse take over, the excellent engineering/quality lead management of Boeing were replaced by the MBA/Wall Street type of managers from MD, who had already destroyed MD and then started doing the same to Boeing.

Despite all of this and the tragic crashes and quality issues at Boeing, the airline industry is still so desperate for new aircraft, that Boeing is still able to make record sales, despite all their problems. It shows how massive demand in the industry is.

blanch152

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121920823#Comment_121920823

I don't buy that it will get more expensive.

There is no tax on aviation fuel, and as demand slows down elsewhere for oil, the price will fall.

L1011

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121923770#Comment_121923770

Boeing are making record sales but no profits. Its increasingly likely they'll hit the wall; along with Spirit AeroSystems who make much of the actual aircraft sections for them.

Furze99

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121925377#Comment_121925377

All my life I've watched things get more expensive. Prices may fall a bit now & then, then rise back up etc etc

What makes you think that demand for oil elsewhere will fall?

And there most certainly should be substantial carbon and other taxes on aviation fuel. It's disgraceful they get a free ride on taxation.

We'll be back to using ferries & trains for access to & from this island.

bk

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121925431#Comment_121925431

To be clear, when I said record profits, I was talking back before the 737 MAX crashes and all the issues with MCAS.

I'm talking about the period after the merger of MD and Boeing (1997), when the MD management basically replaced the Boeing management and started to make short terms decisions that were great for short term profitably and stock growth, but terrible for safety and the manufacturers long term health.

Spirit AeroSystems was created out of Boeing during this period and at the time it was hailed as a brilliant move by the Wall Street types, but has led to many of the cost cutting and quality issues. Then there is the whole MCAS stuff, etc.

You are absolutely correct, that Boeing is now in a rough state given the MAX crashes and all the quality issues since then. Though there were signs even before then with the Dreamliner and 777x issues.

However the point really is to show how relatively healthy the broader airline industry is, despite all of Boeing's issues, airlines are still buying their aircraft in record numbers because demand is so high and Airbus is at maximum capacity.

As an aside, the US government won't leave them go to the wall, they are too important to the US, both in terms of the civilian aviation market, but more importantly the military side. F15, F18, F22, Apache, tankers, bombers, UAV's, missiles, etc. are all too important with China on the horizon. Of course they could possibly break it up, but we will see.

L1011

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121925718#Comment_121925718

Boeings profits died with the 787 production rework and grounding; its a lot longer ago than MCAS.

McDonnell management culture has driven two (Douglas first) airframers in to the ground. I suspect the military bit will be sold to Northrup or Lockheed and the civil bit may become a new business like how Chrysler was 'saved' by the US and Canadian Governments back in the 00s.

bk

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121925730#Comment_121925730

They actually continued to make extremely healthy profits through the period of those troubles with the 787!

This graph only goes back to 2009, but it shows the trend:

https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/BA/boeing/gross-profit

But it was similar in 2007 and 2008:

https://www.seattletimes.com/business/boeing-projects-strong-profit-for-2008-despite-787-troubles/

2020, is the first time they made an actual lose!

Not that I don't agree with you that the writing was on the wall of trouble ahead with the 787. But at that point they were still making big profits due to their cost cutting, Spirit, etc.

Sam Russell

Mod: Boeing will never build a heavy rail link to Dublin Airport - not in the short term or the long term.

I think, therefore, Boeing is off topic, as is the oil market.

Podge_irl

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121925691#Comment_121925691

All my life I've watched things get more expensive. Prices may fall a bit now & then, then rise back up etc etc

A) what is relevant is the affordability, not just the number. You have not watched things get more expensive all your life once you adjust for inflation.

B) flights have literally gotten cheaper, even if we don't count for inflation. While they are unlikely to get any cheaper than today, there is no reason to expect a significant real increase either

C) the idea we will return to ferries and trains is utter fantasy. We are an island and people will always want to get to mainland Europe in less than a day.

Furze99

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121925821#Comment_121925821

Grand, we'll agree to differ.

IMHO unless there is some great technological breakthrough that shifts people quickly and cheaply, that the days of cheap aviation based on current fuels will wane. And that we'll be back to how islands like Ireland have managed for centuries - using the sea, in our case the Irish Sea. Not an opinion that people like to hear but that's tough.

So the importance of Dublin Airport will wane too and the need to transport large numbers to/from from it. Buses (& cars) will be fine to tide us over.

Podge_irl

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121925956#Comment_121925956

We already have a great technology breakthrough that shifts people quickly and cheaply - it's called flight.