Convective/Thunderstorm Discussion - Summer 2023

SnowyMuckish

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120696066#Comment_120696066

Would be nice to see the NW getting in on some action. We’ve seen nothing of the action the rest of the country had this year.

glightning

I should add that the above applies when SBCAPE charts are not showing much. In that case the storms would be mid level based (i.e. a few thousand feet up). You could easily have both SBCAPE and MUCAPE charts show high CAPE and very negative lifted index where there is very deep convection potential.

glightning

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120696272#Comment_120696272

Same here. Thunder drought this year. Although there have been storms within 30 miles of here. I'm in County Antrim near Lough Neagh.

In fact, despite having enough day time storms over the past 5 years I have yet to see a good night time storm here since I moved house. Previously it was a once every year or two thing. So really hoping this summer will deliver something.

glightning

It's interesting looking at the IR sat animation right now. If anything, (if you watch the animation very carefully) everything coming up from France and SW England is breaking up right now and disappearing.

Have to say that in these setups I'm very much on the fence. I want the storms but I don't want it to turn into a disappointing, boring cloud fest. I still want sunshine and heat too. So I'd prefer not to see widespread cloud coverage and more sunshine with some potent storms here and there.

glightning

Also, the models do not appear to be showing that low pressure like rotation currently to the west of Ireland (currently west of Shannon and moving north)

spookwoman

still over 19 degrees in waterford and humidity is rising.

JanuarySnowstor

Warm and humid here in Cork. I'm going to go for it tonight I believe conditions are favourable to storms brewing as the convection moves over land. Favoured time for me midnight to 3am. Let's see what happens..

JanuarySnowstor

18z gfs shows quite a lot of heavy ppn across the South tonight, 2 to 4am in particular!! This is the stuff that could create a few sparks!

Meteorite58

No sparks yet but torrential rain woke me here near Tralee about 30 mins ago, haven't seen rain like it in such a long time , still raining moderately.

oi softlad

Check out Lake Travis west of Austin Texas on earthcam, serious lightning storm ongoing

highdef

Decent large cell recently made landfall in South wicklow and it's now moving north west. It is looking even better now on radar, perhaps orographic lift is assisting it. Might even get sparky shortly. Some parts of Kildare could well be in the hot list when it leaves Wicklow. Well needed for the lucky people who get the shower.

.Donegal.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120696272#Comment_120696272

This morning the UK Met office removed Derry,Tyrone,Armagh etc from thunderstorm warning. The wait might go on

squarecircles

MET eireann removing any mention of thunder now from the forecast,l ooks like the arse has fallen out of it.

glightning

Yeah, I don't think today will deliver anything either to be honest. Had hope for some mid level storms here in eastern NI this evening, but models this morning were toning down MUCAPE and LI, and with all the high cloud about the temps are not rising that high. Suspect it will just get progressively cloudier as the day goes on but with very little proper convection going on. Some showers this evening maybe - doubt they will be thundery.

Just feels like that typical situation we get where Ireland is under a cloud shield whilst the UK get the sun, heat, and storms.

spookwoman

Waterford has lightning forecast for 5pm / 6pm. Had a bit of rain here, nothing that was supposed to have fallen.

glightning

Some altocumulus clouds forming just to the west of me at the moment. I'm clutching at straws here! :D

JCX BXC

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120697772#Comment_120697772

Is that on the hourly forecast?

I find it's total rubbish, the only times I've actually witnessed a thunderstorm it doesn't say it on the app, when it does say it it never thunders. Those computer based no human input forecasts are rubbish. Just Thursday it was telling me it would be 27°c in Galway at 4pm

circadian

Very close in Dublin, high humidity wonder if there's the potential for some thunder as its been getting progressively hotter too.

Wanderer78

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120698190#Comment_120698190

yea the hourly ones can be terrible, rain radar is building here though, so heres hoping, not convinced theres gonna be much though, if anything....

SouthWesterly

Met eireann app says I won't see anything of consequence until Monday and then again Wednesday..😭😭 I want rain.

glightning

UKMO got the location and size of the storms pretty much spot on in England I see. Perhaps they initiated a little later than originally stated - but fair play on the call. Of course, it's much easie for them to fire off there in a more ideal environment with higher temps.

Meteorite58

Bust so far today, probably too messy profile in the atmosphere? Loads of mid level lenticulars and cloud in all levels here in Kerry.

Firing up big time in the UK.

glightning

That rain moving north from Dublin towards my location in Co.Antrim looks like it might actually fizzle out by the time it gets here!

Dazler97

I hope where due thunderstorms tonight who knows

Storm 10

Liverpool Echo have video of the storm there

spookwoman

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120698190#Comment_120698190

Was rubbish, didn't even get a decent shower of rain during that time. same last night and this morning, down for heavy showers but didn't get much. Just a mizzle here now.

Oscar Bravo

Much better chance tomorrow especially midland areas and id say Met Eireann will issue a thunderstorm warning later

.Donegal.

Yellow - Thunderstorm Warning for Fermanagh, Tyrone, Derry

These will be fairly slow moving with the potential for large rainfall amounts in a short period of time. 20-30 mm of rain may fall in an hour or less in a few spots with perhaps 40-50 mm possible if successive showers affect the same location. Frequent lightning is also likely to be a hazard along with hail.

Valid: 12:00 Monday 12/06/2023 to 21:00 Monday 12/06/2023

Meteorite58

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120700682#Comment_120700682

Looks like a different kettle of fish from tomorrow alright, proper big slow moving thunderstorms dropping big amounts of rain, hail? could get some notable cells developing with the heat and high Dp's available into the evening. All week showing potential with some initial high CAPE readings. Pity I am back to work tomorrow, would have gone storm chasing.

highdef

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120700791#Comment_120700791

Ditto for me. Have to go to the office in Dublin on Monday and Tuesday so no doubt there'll be decent storms at the house in Longford.

Having said that, there's surprisingly decent amount of convection here already today, probably aided by a small clear slot. Looking south:

Edit, a few spots of rain now.