The roads logjam

Seth Brundle

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121316176#Comment_121316176

I wouldn't make any presumptions when it comes to the likes of TII!

Westernview

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121316312#Comment_121316312

Well we can only comment on what they put out and I'd like to think they have more of a handle on road priorities than either me or you.

Pete_Cavan

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121316073#Comment_121316073

That section alone merits an upgrade whatever about the extension to Roosky.

That's my point, we should be focusing on fixing particular problems and setting about doing that in a timely manner. Nothing will be done between Mullingar and Roosky now while this monster project trundles through the system, and it likely will be scrapped eventually, either due to not having a strong enough business case or rejected on environmental grounds.

Whataboutery is exactly what the statement about deaths "on a midlands road" is. How many were actually on the N4 between Mullingar and Roosky? Presumably "a midlands road" includes everything such as L roads and possibly even private roads and housing estates. That certainly isn't a justification for spending half a billion quid on a very small part of the midlands road network.

I thought it was fairly unanimously agreed here that those road death predictions were a load of crap given the N4 Maynooth - Leixlip had 6 deaths predicted.

Westernview

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121317012#Comment_121317012

Such a stream of negativity. Hard to know where to start. It's the main N4 road to Dublin, most of it after merging with the N5. Why call it a 'monster' project? You're going on about business cases again. Do you have the business case that says its not viable? Not sure how it would trade off saving lives against economics. It probably won't be done for a long time anyway so im sure you'll be glad of that.

I've already explained why i believe that the 'midland road' thing just refers to the N4 only. You can refer back to my earlier email.

Someone else replied to you earlier that half a billion may or may not be excessive for over 50km of road at todays prices so no point getting into that again. Every other road will have similar rates I'd imagine.

I don't recall any 'unanimous agreement' that TII's road fatality predictions are 'a load of crap'. But feel free to post your own data figures on that.

marno21

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121317012#Comment_121317012

There were 17 fatalities along that section of the N4 between Mullingar and Longford between 2008 and 2019. I'd imagine the 20 includes the count from 20 til now. This stretch of road was flagged by TII in 2017 during the formulation of the National Development Plan for being particularly prone to head on and fatal head on collisions (unsurprisingly, it's a high speed undivided road with far too many accesses and junctions) (the other 3 stretches of road were the N2 between Ardee and the border, the N22 between Ovens and Farranfore and the N20 along its length). (Source: https://n4mullingartolongford.ie/about/)

The predictions for the N4 Maynooth-Leixlip presumably meant deaths that would occur if the M4 wasn't upgraded. It didn't specify they had to happen on the M4 mainline. What I'd imagine TII are angling at there is that if the M4, which is designed to carry large volumes of motor traffic, is congested, people will instead seek alternative routes on back roads, which leads to reduced pedestrian and cyclist safety and more traffic on poorly engineered roads. The reason I believe this to be the case is that they suggest that if the Cork North Ring Road isn't built, there will be an additional 18 fatalities. Seeing as this road doesn't exist even in L/R road form at the minute, it has to suggest they had a look at the wider network in the area rather than just the stretch of road mentioned.

Pete_Cavan

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121317545#Comment_121317545

"stream of negativity"? What negativity is there in my post?

And no I won't be glad that it probably won't be done for a long time, I'm saying that we need to do something now. It is you who is seemingly happy to wait what could be a decade to battle through design and planning for something which could well fall at any of the hurdles along that journey. After planning another battle begins.

If the concern was preventing deaths, the focus would be on the most deadly part(s) and resolving that in the shortest period of time. Quoting deaths over a 50km stretch doesn't mean a lot if a large proportion of the deaths are occurring on a particular section of the road. The part that needs to be addressed gets delayed because someone decided we need outer bypasses of Longford and Edgeworthstown.

The point on cost is that there are limited funds available and we are building to a logjam (hence this thread) in the second half of this decade. There will be several billion worth of road projects vying for funding at the same time that double-digit billion worth of rail projects are due to be on site. There will be limited funding and labour available. Something will have to give and N4 Mullingar - Roosky would likely be near the top of that list (assuming it survives through planning).

Westernview

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121318256#Comment_121318256

It is very diffiicult to discuss this with you any further when you are ignoring information presented to you. In addition to the TII figures Marno21 has helpfully provided the link with further data on the problems with this entire 52km stretch of road. Have you looked at it?

You want to scale it back and "Do something now" on "the most deadly parts". With over 500 junctions and direct access points along the entire route it is obvious that focusing on specific parts of it will almost certainly have limited impact on safety. Do you have information on what parts should be focused on?. It is clear that the entire route needs investment, and most of it offline as a new route.

No Im not happy to wait a decade but it seems that's what it will take to get the road safe then there is little choice. The planning requirements and environmental considerations will need to be addressed as they have to be for all infrastructural projects. What timescale do you envisage with your scaled back proposals?

You keep mentioning issues with limited funds. Every government department has limited funds in the sense that they are not infinite. if the limitation is so severe surely it is prudent to focus the budget on saving lives. In that case the first project would be Cork City Northern Transport Project with the highest predicted fatalaties (maybe you want to cut that back too?) and then routes like the N4 Mullingar - Roosky.

I presume that you have dispensed with your idea of a business case opposing the project seeing as yet again you have failed to produce it when asked for it.

timmyntc

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121318256#Comment_121318256

Eh? Limited funds?

The state is awash with cash for these projects, money is not the bottleneck here, its primarily planning.

Planning process holding up both roads projects and PT projects, and if PT projects stall so too do roads due to 2:1 spending ratio.

This need not be the case, but the minister clearly will not allow certain roads projects to progress by limiting funding at a time of massive state surpluses. Perhaps Minister Ryan believes if roads projects go ahead and get done first that the PT projects may end up in limbo and therefore the 2:1 spend rule be broken.

Pete_Cavan

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121318523#Comment_121318523

Yes I looked at the link. 17 deaths along the 52km of road is a very broad stat and doesn't automatically justify replacing the entire length of road. If a large portion of those deaths are concentrated on a relatively short section(s) of the road, then that would suggest that that particular section(s) needs attention.

If the justification is preventing road deaths and collisions, then where specifically and why these incidents are occurring is important. And again, a 52km project is going to face a lot more delays and issues than smaller projects and doing nothing while waiting (hoping) it eventually gets approved for construction is likely to result in more deaths.

This doesn't have a Business Case yet, as per TII Major Projects List March 2023. I am as entitled to speculate that the case will be a poor one as you are to speculate that it will be strong.

I'm not ignoring information presented to me, the information presented is just insufficient. I suspect you very diffiicult to discuss a lot of things with most people.

Westernview

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121319224#Comment_121319224

Speculating about businesses cases that don't exist to make an argument against a road is just ridiculous. But yes you are free to do so.

TII clearly knows where the incidents are occurring and will have factored that into their recommendation that the whole route needs to be upgraded.

DumbBrunette

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121319224#Comment_121319224

Regarding what sections of the N4 are the most dangerous, there is evidence we can refer to in the form of the concept and feasibility study from the project website here - https://n4mullingartolongford.ie/publications/

The diagram below shows all accidents in the 2008 to 2016 period only. Overall the Co Longford section appears to be somewhat worse than the Westmeath stretch but the accidents are well spread out along the entire route. If there were one or two blackspots that could be tackled for a few million quid each then I think TII would have done so already.

Pete_Cavan

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121321540#Comment_121321540

Thanks for the info.

Will be interesting to see how long before any improvements happen between Mullingar and Roosky, into the next decade at the least. This conversation started with an article with a quote that there is €100bn worth of projects but €35bn in funding.

The question is which projects get planning approval to actually be considered for construction funding. We'll have to wait many years to find that out given the logjam to which this thread refers.

road_high

The Westmeath section is definitely better in terms of width and general alignment- it was clearly all realigned in the past three decades. The Longford section is narrower especially between Edgeworthstown and Longford

Sam Russell

Mod: Solar panels are not roads, and are not the subject of this thread.

Off topic posts deleted.

marno21

N2 Slane bypass submitted to An Bord Pleanala

First major roads scheme submitted to ABP since the M21 under Shane Ross in October 2019.

Hibernicis

TII guidance is that the indicative timeline for Phases 4 and 5 combined is 2 to 5 years. This is going into Phase 4 now and Phase 6 is when construction commences. The duration of Phase 4 tends to relate to how long takes ABP to reach a decision and whether or not there are any legal appeals, and Phase 5 related to how long it takes the Department to approve tendering, sanction expenditure and approve any enabling works. For example, the M28 was submitted to ABP in 2017 (Phase 4) and is still in Phase 5. Construction on that project is still 18-36 months away.

• Phase 1 (Concept and Feasibility)
• Phase 2 (Options Selection)
• Phase 3 (Design and Environmental Evaluation)
• Phase 4 (Statutory Processes, which includes An Bord Pleanála Oral Hearing)
• Phase 5 (Enabling and Procurement)
• Phase 6 (Construction and Implementation)
• Phase 7 (Close out and Review)

spacetweek

M28 is 12-15 months away from starting.

The N2 Slane was supposed to start in 2024 according to the last project timelines document the Gov put out. 2-5 more years is some slippage.

Hibernicis

Nope. Enabling works only. Still at phase 5. It’s only just gone to tender.

cjpm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121460367#Comment_121460367

This is actually appalling. 49 months without a major scheme being sent to ABP

Hibernicis

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121470580#Comment_121470580

It actually is appalling in a country with the resources available to invest in its future. You'd probably have to go back to the 1950's to find a comparable period. And people argue when I say that Ryan has been the most successful minister in the current government in achieving his own personal bigoted objectives.

corm500

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121470580#Comment_121470580

The Ryan effect right there.

Limerick74

This will help somewhat https://www.independent.ie/farming/news/goodwill-payment-to-farmers-for-road-projects-more-than-doubled-to-6500ac-in-new-deal-with-state/a1568794848.html

marno21

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121519154#Comment_121519154

Great news given there’s 10/11 projects to go to ABP in the next 12-24 months. Anything that’ll help speed up the total time spent in the system is more than welcome.

cjpm

A countrywide logjam created by the deluded principals of one individual……

https://www.irishexaminer.com/news/arid-41295151.html?fbclid=IwAR2AnOVR-aDUU91hN0HpHBl3YWzCZ2zYfGDbXdUQQJeiucK8tkqHGAqDxoA

spacetweek

Hopefully we’ll see a planning board back in action by Q2 2024 and greatly reduced decision times.

https://www.irishtimes.com/ireland/housing-planning/2023/12/28/after-years-of-tumult-an-bord-pleanala-battles-the-legacy-of-crisis/

Limerick74

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121544269#Comment_121544269

Paywall- subscriber only article

spacetweek

Plenty of ways of getting around that but here's a snippet

Under growing pressure to clear a huge backlog of case files, An Bord Pleanála faces a decisive test in 2024 to end two years of upheaval. The planning appeals body awaits the appointment of a permanent chair in January, a process that raises the prospect of a third leadership change inside 15 months.

In addition, new laws to modernise planning will rename the authority as An Coimisiún Pleanála. These embrace a radical overhaul of An Bord Pleanála, an institution whose corporate structures are largely unchanged since it was established in the 1970s.

All of that marks an effort to draw a line under a deep governance scandal that undermined confidence in Irish planning and sapped morale within the authority itself. The impact was all the worse because of the housing crisis, with the lack of affordable homes one the biggest problems confronting society and the Government.

The planning system is still beset with delays, frustrating efforts to escalate housing delivery. But An Bord Pleanála insists it has made progress in recent months to dispose of stalled cases, saying the backlog can finally be settled by next summer. “A continued effort will be made to increase the disposal rate with the aim of a substantive clearance of the excess caseload to be achieved by [the] end [of the second quarter of] 2024,” the body said. The governance affair reached a critical point in November when former deputy chairman Paul Hyde received a suspended prison sentence for failing to declare certain property interests to the quasi-judicial authority. He had pleaded guilty to two charges.

But An Bord Pleanála still risks further fallout from the debacle. A report is due in January from senior counsel Lorna Lynch on “matters of concern” in the organisation. The barrister is examining 300 case files for any “conflicts of interest and objective or actual bias” and the allocation of files to board members and inspectors. She is also scrutinising officials’ statutory declarations, amendments to inspectors’ reports and communications with external parties outside formal channels. While that means there is still the possibility of further disruption, the Coalition is working on the basis that the worst of the turmoil is behind it. “You would expect 2024 to bring normalisation into the planning process,” said a senior Government source of the effort to stabilise An Bord Pleanála.

Hyde resigned in July 2022 after questions about his work in reporting by the Ditch website, which ultimately led to a Garda investigation. Four months later, the then chairman Dave Walsh took early retirement for “personal and family reasons”. Without a chair or deputy chair, An Bord Pleanála was not in a legal position to take certain decisions on fast-track housing and strategic infrastructure, some of its most important work. But there was more. Because of the Government’s failure to make new appointments after other scheduled board departures, the authority was left with only four serving board members from November 2022 instead of the usual 15.

The resulting breakdown in board decision-making contributed to a year-long backlog, with thousands of case files delayed. The excess caseload had reached 3,613 by May 2023. It was only then that the board was at last restored to full strength, with the number of cases decided each month “significantly increased” to exceed number of incoming new cases. “An average of 230 new cases were received every month with an average of 340 disposed of monthly from June 2023,” An Bord Pleanála said. The excess caseload is down 30 per cent since May, with 2,527 cases on hand just before Christmas. That has led close observers to conclude that progress is being made, while arguing that further strides are required. “Things are going in the right direction is probably the main thing to say,” said Dr Seán O’Leary, senior planner at the Irish Planning Institute, the professional body for planners. “Now that there is a board of 15 members things are starting to go back on track. There’s still a backlog ... In 2024 they need to clear the backlog.”