USA 2024 presidential election

Rjd2

Simply a bad call by Elon and DeSantis the announcement. Ignoring the well documented technical issues, it had other issues, one which stuck out was all the guys who asked questions they all went out of their way to praise Musk for way to long. A few compliments here and their would not have stood out but just bizarre this was happening when he was not the dude announcing his run!

Also the obvious, while he clearly is a policy wonk compared to Trump, the guy has no charisma and a very annoying voice, that may seem unimportant but it really these days. A lot of people would have tuned out of boredom last night.

On reflection if he wanted to swerve Fox, why not just go on something like the daily wire or some other right wing powerhouse online? It would have been a safer call and would have reached plenty of people. A town hall or stadium in Florida would also have had made more sense.

Its far from fatal, but first impressions count and that was a dismal one.

I know he is banking on the GOP base to care more about policy and governing etc to beat Trump, but that stuff does not matter to the GOP base. They want the show and Trump delivers in spades.

To be fair the policy wonk of the last Dem primary was Warren and yeah that worked out well.

pixelburp

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120637727#Comment_120637727

why not just go on something like the daily wire or some other right wing powerhouse online?

If I had to guess, it was because DeSantis is utterly obsessed with "anti woke" as a foundation for policy, while Musk has become a darling to those who see his Twitter reign as a pushback against "the blue haired brigade" and the like, under the guise of "free speech". I'm not that surprised DeSantis might have chosen Twitter as the platform, the alt-right as they're called love him.

The more I've see of him though, the more I think he's gonna crash and burn the first TV debate that comes. I think he's more vicious than Trump in that he is misanthropic by deed, not word, but has zero personality that he might persuade anyone not as obsessed with "woke" as he is.

Then again, maybe not. We didn't think Trump would appeal as much as he did, so perhaps DeSantis will become the lightning rod for all those who wish to truly coalesce and "punish" Liberal America; DeSantis has already spoken of creating a supermajority of Conservative SC judges if he got in.

Rjd2

Sununu out .

For those unfamiliar very popular Republican governor in New Hampshire. He is not dumb he knew he had no chance and it was quite likely he could come third in his home state which would be very embarrassing.

He also got a dig in on Nikki Haley who is just attacking RDS and not even attempting to land a blow on the clear front runner Trump as she clearly has now decided its be Trump's VP or bust.

I'd expect him to endorse RDS assuming he is remains the obvious alternative to Trump. It probably won't matter but DeSantis needs endorsements from creditable people to even have a chance.

Brussels Sprout

You'd have to wonder about the motivations of people like Doug Burgum in joining the race. I'd consider myself a political anorak and I'd never heard of him so I'd say his name I.D. on a national level is non-existent. He's going to struggle to even qualify for a debate invite.

He's the governor of the 4th least populated state (North Dakota) and he's super wealthy. He doesn't seem to occupy any lane that isn't already clogged. Just another governor of a red state who's made his name signing bills on Abortion, Trans issues and CRT while slashing taxes.

I guess he's got lots of money to throw at it and he needs something to keep himself occupied. Another billionaire hobby much like flying to outer space or purchasing sports teams.

ELM327

I mean at least theres a noteworthy competitor to Trump this time for the GOP. If they go through the primaries and trump wins, its not for a lack of competition.

I dont think RDS wins a nationwide vote and it would be very difficult for a non Trump person to win a majority of the republican vote base given the hardcore maga supoort.

Rjd2

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120686479#Comment_120686479

I think if somehow RDS wins a primary v Trump he will be very formidable v Biden. He is running very much to the right obviously but their are so many moderate centrists who loath Trump so much that plenty will get behind the man who conquered him in a primary.

Obviously beating Trump in a primary for me seems near impossible as it always come back to the fact that at least 30-40% of the GOP voting base are all in Trump until he dies, anyone who can overcome that will need a lot of luck!

The Biden age thing is not going away, its not just been discussed by Fox, but I thought the below from the NYT was pretty interesting. Its something which is worrying donors also.

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/06/04/us/politics/biden-president-age-2024.html

Nody

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120686803#Comment_120686803

I simply don't see how RDS is going to be able to win the center votes in a one on one vs Biden. He has a personality that makes Biden look energized and well informed; all he has is attacking woke etc. but that's not going to carry very far with the center vote. His record from Florida is abyssmal and the amount of attack ads from his war with Disney, not allowed to talk about menstrual cycle etc. would write themselves and cost him even more. He's a paper tower of anti woke but lack actual relevance and policies to win a national election because he's a one topic pony. As much as I hate to say it but Trump would do better than RDS I think on a national campaign simply because Trump can swing any topic and bluster.

Rjd2

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120686924#Comment_120686924

To be fair this debate is as worthwhile as suggesting what would "liverpool do if they had Haaland"😋 as its probably not going to happen so neither of us will be proved right or wrong.

I think beating Trump will be a hugely impressive effort to start with . I then look at the midterms and I always come back to the comment that a Georgian Republican made " we are a conservative state not a Trump state" a good example was when all the Trump lackies kept losing senate elections, Brian Kemp who signed in a six week abortion ban and infuriated the Trump team beat Stacy Abrams very easily.

Their is clearly voters who lean right who will be crucial to 2024, they loathed Trump so they voted Biden in 2020 and avoided the clones in 2022, beating Trump will buy a lot of goodwill from them for sure.

Regarding Florida, its complicated, his win in 2022 was hugely impressive , but I don't think its the stuff with Disney that will worry him in a general , its the abortion 6 week ban which from all accounts he had no choice to sign in which could come back to haunt him.

From an electoral map POV, Trump is toxic in Arizona and Georgia , RDS puts those states back in play for the GOP.

Brussels Sprout

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120686803#Comment_120686803

I think Biden's age only becomes a factor in the general election if Trump isn't his opponent (unlikely as of right now). There's only 4 years between them and they're both given to incoherent rambling. If the Republicans release compilation videos of Biden tripping and stumbling the Democrats can release videos of Trump having to have someone hold his hand as he climbs down ramps and stairs.

Rjd2

Ok obvious caveats, their is numerous promo videos from politicians from all sides over the years which have been abysmal and this particular video is not going to sink his campaign or even be remembered in a week let alone when the voting starts in the primary, but it personifies an issue which is killing him atm, De Santis and his team are terminally online.

I don't want to start a debate about LGBT rights here , but polling wise gay marriage is popular , when it comes to trans rights its obviously more thorny but majority when it comes to adults transitioning are fine with that, obviously its get messier when it comes to kids but that's a different debate to be had.

The fact is RDS has people on his campaign who think attacking Trump for been supposedly pro LGBT will win any vote bar a miniscule online hardcore social conservative posse which is moronic. Then obviously throwing in stupid references to Patrick Bateman just ugh.

He had an uphill task from day 1 , but he needs to rethink this strategy ASAP as right now he is dong nothing to build a coalition needed to beat Trump.

https://nypost.com/2023/07/01/ron-desantis-takes-heat-from-conservatives-for-homophobic-ad/

 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1674961505819971584

Brussels Sprout

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120801361#Comment_120801361

That's something that's happened to Trump himself as well. His speeches are often peppered with stuff that, unless you're watching a lot of Fox and OANN or are on right wing twitter a lot, you would not understand. I'd say being morooned on Truth Social as likely only exacerbated this.

It's probably not too bad in the primary but when trying to win over the crucial independent voters that decide general elections it's entirely pointless.

pixelburp

What a world America finds itself when "gigachad" is mentioned in a piece of journalism. Even I had to look that one up; and kinda wish I didn't.

It's just where the GOP has found itself: increasingly led by its own christian-conservative rump and a surprisingly deep chest of wealth that became a self-fulfilling prophecy the more they were indulged. It all sounds on-brand to me when it comes to DeSantis: he's one of those GOP politicians who are utterly obsessed with "woke", or at a minimum the new avenue conservatives have chosen to attack the LGBT+ community (drag clubs, think-of-the-children scaremongering, corporations' astro-turf campaigns towards inclusivity); as pointed out a distinct majority support gay marriage & by all accounts so you get these attempts to say it, without actually saying it.

For sure, no question it's gonna alienate and turn off floating or independent voters - but I don't think the party or DeSantis have the self-awareness to do anything else. You need a modicum of charm and a cool head to work around Trump - I think, at least that's what worked for Biden - but those two factors are almost non-existent in the modern GOP. There are charmers out there, and those that exist don't tend to use the playbook of being the loudest, most obnoxious person in the room. Which worked ... ... until Trump came along.

Rjd2

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120803347#Comment_120803347

It reminds me a little of the doomed Warren campaign from 2020, she was very popular online with a niche base which sadly for her was not representative of the democrat voting base. She focused a lot on the finer points of policy and while I would have voted for her she was doomed as Biden a much less interesting politician was who the voters went with simply because for them he was their best bet to beat Trump. Policies be damned.

RDS strategy is similar, focus a lot on policy he has enacted and what he will when elected as president and while the online hardcore right wing types aka social conservatives and Ben Shapiro subscribers may lap it up, the voting base is Trumpy and they don't care about any of that.

I don't even think they care that much about winning, they love Trump and won't quit him because he puts on a show and irritates the people they detest the most.

That scene in the Simpsons where Homer screams "nerds" at the erm nerds when he goes to college, that's exactly the same reaction a sizable element of the GOP base feel when De Santis gets in-depth on policy.

Still months from the first vote is cast, but nonetheless he may need help from the man above to win this primary!

Brussels Sprout

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120811090#Comment_120811090

If you could create a GOP candidate in a lab do you think it would be possible to create one that could beat Trump in a GOP Primary in 2024?

Rjd2

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120811280#Comment_120811280

Great question.

RDS with charisma basically!

I don't know, the one thing about a lot of the polls is while Trump is dominating them, many he is floating around 40% or so which is enough in a crowded primary but does suggest their is a lot of GOP voters who are tempted by alternatives.

How do you win any primary where at least 30-40% are deadenders for one guy?

Quin_Dub

There is no GOP Candidate that is capable of winning both the Primary and the Actual election.

To win the primary requires a candidate to go full QGOP , Anti-Woke , "Christian Nation" loon , which in turns makes them utterly toxic to everybody else in a National election.

They've painted themselves into corner that they are going to find very difficult to get out of.

But rather than make the hard choice and excise the rotten MAGA limbs and then take some time to rebuild , they seem to have decided that the path is to look to use the Courts and their local influence on Elections to rig the game in their favour such that they give whatever Lunatics they choose to run a fighting chance.

spacecoyote

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120841141#Comment_120841141

Two party system and electoral college also swings it slightly in favour of the Reps too.

Think in the last election it was something like, if Trump got 48% in the popular vote he was likely to win the election, but he only hit around 46%

eire4

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120841141#Comment_120841141

In many ways the Republican Party's drift further and further to the far right has seen them embrace/flirt with support for authoritarianism. They certainly want as little democracy as they can get away with in the US it seems these days.

eire4

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120844032#Comment_120844032

I am not 100% sure but I think every time the electoral college has overturned the choice of the voters for US president it has been to a Republican. Certainly the 2 modern example were.

Quin_Dub

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120859988#Comment_120859988

Other than Bush in 2004, no Republican has won the popular vote since Reagan.

Given the demographics of the Country, they are unlikely to win the popular vote any time soon either.

Manic Moran

I'd just like to say that as a voter, it is very difficult for me to get excited about the election. Yet again, it's a case of voting against the worse option, assuming there is no acceptable third party candidate

Senator and Congressman and State/ local elections will still get me into the polling station, though. For starters, they have more effect on my life than the President does, whoever wins that election.

eire4

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120861352#Comment_120861352

Very good and correct points. Sadly the US is not really a full democracy so they don't need to. They have an unelected kind of shadow executive in the so called supreme court, the electoral college and the senate all to stop the voters from truly exercising their will and that is before you even get into the nefarious things like voter suppression, purging of voter roles, gerrymandering house districts etc.

pixelburp

So apparently DeSantis' campaign is shedding a third of its staff: meaning either they overhired the first time around, or the wheels are wobbling. Given how inert DeSantis has been thus far, I'd say it's the latter.

Nody

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120895892#Comment_120895892

From what I've read both; basically they ramped up to quickly on request of his third campaign manager (new one every campaign...) even when warned it would not work combined with the expected improvement simply is not materializing which means his funding is going wobbly.

Rjd2

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120896312#Comment_120896312

He is not as doomed as some are saying but he's not in a good place whatsoever. The "Never Trump" donors who backed him must be getting wobbly and are probably already in the denial stage about a 2024 Trump run "maybe he will tone it down this time " " well if Haley is the VP it won't be that bad" etc....

However at this stage the GOP must realise its Trump or DeSantis, so they may still persevere and hope that his campaign gets back on track. He has time, but his flaws are many. Their has been persistent chatter about Youngkin getting in the race but while it might appeal to his ego, I think he would realise it would be a doomed campaign and may as well wait until 2028.

Rjd2

https://twitter.com/AlexThomp/status/1683961998608924672?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1683961998608924672%7Ctwgr%5E29623cf5bab1f728af10dd81878f1ca6489ee7f6%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.cricketweb.net%2Fforum%2Fthreads%2Fthe-american-politics-thread.46729%2Fpage-2057

A mess of a campaign. He had a massive war chest and was liked by the GOP base so wile Trump was very formidable he has somewhat handicapped himself by his current strategy which I posted earlier was "terminally online " personified.

National Review which is obviously a conservative site which would lean toward RDS broke down the campaign and the missteps so far. Obviously their is liberal sites which have similar descriptions but think its more interesting when the criticism is coming from those who should be the most persuadable.

Some quotes

[quote]

 The Florida governor has devoted most of his energies to peeling away Donald Trump’s core supporters by taking ownership of the former president’s issue set and presenting himself as a more competent and capable steward of those priorities. On paper, the strategy makes sense. But in focusing to a prohibitive degree on the GOP’s least persuadable voters, he has sacrificed his appeal to its most persuadable voters. Even if that is a smaller pool of Republicans, it is one that any anti-Trump candidate must corner if their presidential enterprise is going to be successful.[/quote]

https://www.nationalreview.com/2023/07/desantiss-problem-alienating-the-voters-he-needs/

Rjd2

And he continues to double down, just embarrassing.

RFK has a loud but small base who are mainly MAGA loons/cultists who probably loath RDS who seems determined to learn the hard way you can't outmaga Trump.

https://www.mediaite.com/politics/embarrassingly-bad-desantis-fans-pan-candidate-for-offering-loony-quack-rfk-jr-a-job-in-his-administration/

Rjd2

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4135383-gallego-leading-lake-sinema-in-hypothetical-arizona-senate-matchups-survey/

Arizona has a potentially fascinating three way for a senate seat in 2024. Sinema who has spent the last few years baiting her own party the Dems now an independent may or may not run to retain her seat. Its very early days and Lake should not panic, but its a reminder in a state with so many indys , running on literally nothing but MAGA in a state where building voting coalitions is key is a very high risk strategy.

Quin_Dub

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120937447#Comment_120937447

Interesting that it appears that Sinemas support comes from both GOP and Democratic Party voters roughly equally.

Gallego has 34% and Lake has 25% with Sinema on 24%.

Take Sinema out and Galleo goes to 45% and Lake to 35%

Rjd2

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120938045#Comment_120938045

Doug Dicey who was the Arizona governor would win this senate race easily if he could get through a GOP primary, but obviously he knows in this era unless you are screaming "MAGA " 24/7 that's near impossible. Its an issue in many states and having people like Lake who are so polarising on a ticket whether it comes to funding or appealing to the crucial swing voters is very risky.

I still can't believe that Lake on the eve of the midterms pretty much told McCain voters to f off from a strategy POV, Gallego in private would loath his politics as should any progressive but he would not be naive enough to bait such a revered figure for mere retweets.

https://eu.azcentral.com/story/opinion/op-ed/laurieroberts/2023/06/20/doug-ducey-wont-run-senate-head-free-enterprise/70338938007/