Share Picks 2023

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120181836#Comment_120181836

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Shedite27

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120181836#Comment_120181836

Never looked into miners before but what are you looking for? Is it just (1) how lucky they get with their exploration digs and (2) price of the material they're mining?

cnocbui

What you are looking for is prospects vs costs. The former being the hardest part and the minefield. Generally speaking, someone finds or thinks there's gold somewhere, so they then look for geological clues as to where the gold ore body might be and where it's headed, like, say a seam running south west, X metres wide and Y metres thick, descending at 6°. This might be clued in by knowledge of the overall geology of the area. So they then drill a grid pattern of bore holes with diamond encrusted brill bits over where they think the thing is headed - hence 'diamond drilling' - to get rock cores. These, are then sent to a geophysics/assay lab where they test for the presence of gold along the length of each core and the type of rock along the length of the core. I believe gold is often associated with ancient processes where molten rock containing the gold was pushed into others that are barren, or possibly gold concentrated and dissolved in water at unbelievable temperatures and pressures, was injected through fissures and cracks into an existing ore body. Any actual geologists can stop laughing as this is just my rough and sketchy layman’s minimal understanding.

This data is then used to generate a 3D map of the ore body containing the gold and where the most gold is in that. So you have an idea of how much gold is in how much rock and how difficult (hardness) that rock is to mine and deal with. Then you have to calculate what it would cost to extract the rock and turn it all to powder so you can use chemicals, mostly cyanide I think, to dissolve the gold out of the powdered rock and then recover it from that hellish chemical slurry.

You have variables like mining methods, where an ore body might be best and most easily retrieved by open cut mining, which is relatively easy and cheap, vs digging mine shafts, which is not easy and not cheap and is dangerous.

So from a relatively small data set of a few holes - drilling isn't exactly cheap - you are having to estimate how much gold there is vs the cost of mining it vs the price of gold vs a guess as to the future price of gold.

Usually there is a pretty fine line between extraction costs vs the value of the gold and there is an awful lot that can go wrong, like the geological map being drawn by the dude who stands to make a quarter of a million per year if he can persuade investor mugs the mines a goer and he should be the MD, and a good few million off of selling the shares he basically granted himself. I have even seen suggestions there might have been salting, where the core samples sent for assay have gold added to them so the resulting prospect looks better.

Speaking as a fingers singed cynic, almost all the money in gold mining is to be made by those proposing and running the mine, followed by the assay labs, diamond drillers, consultant geologists who draw maps and write technical reports and the miners, truck drivers and plant operators and the maintenance people - oh yes, and the companies that make and supply the explosives. I really should have invested in Incitec Pivot, when I had the notion... actually, thank you for asking the question, because it's led to me having another look at them and It looks like a buy now or soon, as it's sliding nicely.

https://www.marketindex.com.au/

Search on IPL. Dividend yield of 7.85% pa and improving of course as the price slides. This is why I love the Australian share market, being an income investor, not a US Ponzi schemer.

Now to find out why it's sliding...

I don't see how anyone who isn't a geologist, or almost one, and who's also an expert on actual mining processes or costs, can begin to do DD on a gold miner. I have seen geologist investors on forums get it wrong, as the 'liar on top' bit is for real.

I have been a bit foolish in the past, but I'm not alone, but at least I have a reasonably good BS detector and bailed out in good time.

Not all gold mining is dodgy, the really big Australian market leaders like Newcrest mining, even I would be prepared to invest in, but with a dividend yield of only 1.78%, I generally can do a lot better than that..

farmingquestion

Down 23%. Despite my stocks going up, the USD weakening is killing me right now. Afraid if we get another drop I'll be down 45% and then need 60% to break even.

Anyone else in same boat? 80% of my current portfolio is BRK.B

I don't need to sell, just when you're down 10k it feels like I have lost it.

Mantis Toboggan

Holy moly Facebook booming!!

Mad_maxx

My second best ever option trade

9F198B19-06D9-49BC-9F3A-3342D1328536.png

Mantis Toboggan

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120192647#Comment_120192647

Fair play, been a great day so far

Shedite27

Anyone beginning to get a bit excited?

awec

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120193876#Comment_120193876

Thought there was a bug in my stock tracker this morning, all green!

patsy_mccabe

Ya, some surge yesterday. Meta earnings boost seems to have giving the market an overall boost.

crushproof

Have we missed the dip? Massive rally since the start of the year. Only drip fed minimal amounts onto my tracker fund since October.

Shedite27

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120195581#Comment_120195581

Apple missed earnings last night too, if we're still in a bear market that should trigger the next leg down today. If it holds up, it'll be a very good sign

Shedite27

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120196295#Comment_120196295

Probably the very bottom but have a look at the big picture, still a long way back for a lot of the stocks.

Some old favourites breaking about 200d average too is a sign a lot of analysts look for

AnF Chuckie egg

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120168247#Comment_120168247

Some guarantee it's only up 17% since your call. If you put your money where your mouth is then you'd be getting the margin call round about now

Mad_maxx

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120197399#Comment_120197399

Can’t win ‘em all , it’s pretty rare for a company to report such a terrible quarter , drop 10% at the open , then recover all its losses within days and then make new gains, short term euphoria (considering what 2022 was like) is what has it at 30

i was obviously wrong in my call though

Hi Guys.

I have a bit to invest. I recently put 5 figures in to crypto. I also have 6 six figures for stock investment.

Looking to spread it over 5-10 stocks.

Won’t need to touch this investment for 15-20 years.

Not looking to take any mad risks.

All suggestions would be very welcomed.

Baes in Australia fwiw.

antimatterx

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120198441#Comment_120198441

Depending on what crypto you bought I think I you'll well over the next few years. Short term could be rocky though.

Yeah, I’ve very little needs for the short term so all my investing is with an eye on 15-20 years.

In addition to my last question -

What stocks that have dropped the most do you think will achieve their previous price again ?

Mad_maxx

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120198441#Comment_120198441

Just buy the S+ P 500 , most won’t ever beat it with individual picks as only a small percentage of the 500 drive the gains , I’d wait until it drops back under 4000 , huge run up so far in 2023

cnocbui

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120198441#Comment_120198441

Australian ETFs - look at Betashares and Vanguard offerings.. HVST GEAR VAP VHY. These are one's that would return you decent dividend returns. There are others to look at if you only want growth. If you are paying taxes in Oz, then whatever you look at, pay attention to the franking percentage to reduce your tax.

I'm not sure now is good point in time for entry, though, as my portfolio is at an all time high. I'd wait for the next correction to buy in.

Thank you both for the input.

‘the next correction’ could be when ? Something that happens regularly or expected soon because of recent green shoots ?

cnocbui

It 'could' be sometime this year - or not - I don't go on predictions so much as take advantage of events as and when they present opportunities.

Here's the ASX All Ordinaries for the past 12 months:

I am perhaps looking to add to my portfolio. I wouldn't be comfortable doing so until a correction brings the market down to the 7000-7200 range. I don't see right now as an opportunity, but I could be wrong.

Nosler

Shell look cheap... booming profits... PE ratio of 5....

There is an old saying "the cure for a a high oil price is a high oil price". It basically means that in the past the oil price would be high and companies would invest in new oil fields and the oil price would go down.

I'm not sure that logic is so true today... governments arent allowing oil exploration for ecological reasons... despite what the environmentalists want, we're still going to need oil for the next decades... I can see Shell pushing out massive profits for years to come.

farmingquestion

Still can't be sure of the market. Market made similar moves last June/July. S&P rose 17%. Growth stocks at the time rose 20-40%.

Shedite27

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120212267#Comment_120212267

Difference this time IMO is that the stocks are crossing their 200d moving average. Back in June/July it was still very extended.

patsy_mccabe

S&P 500 PE Ratio - 30 Year Historical Chart

Consider the high inflation of the last few years, prices are not that crazy at the moment.

sp-500-pe-ratio-price-to-earnings-chart-2023-02-08-macrotrends.jpg

Patsy167

Disney up 6% overnight on the back of the layoff announcements.

Mad_maxx

Disney is my largest holding with a dollar cost average of $106

on a different note , thankfully I lightened up on Google prior to earnings , be fine long term

littlevillage

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120218815#Comment_120218815

Yeah, Disney, Wynn resorts and Halliburton knocking it out of the park for me in 2023. Question is do I take some profit now?? ....all about 25% above my BEP.

Rest of my portfolio treading water, and future recession could still be on the horizon