Share Picks 2023

cnocbui

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120198441#Comment_120198441

Australian ETFs - look at Betashares and Vanguard offerings.. HVST GEAR VAP VHY. These are one's that would return you decent dividend returns. There are others to look at if you only want growth. If you are paying taxes in Oz, then whatever you look at, pay attention to the franking percentage to reduce your tax.

I'm not sure now is good point in time for entry, though, as my portfolio is at an all time high. I'd wait for the next correction to buy in.

Thank you both for the input.

‘the next correction’ could be when ? Something that happens regularly or expected soon because of recent green shoots ?

cnocbui

It 'could' be sometime this year - or not - I don't go on predictions so much as take advantage of events as and when they present opportunities.

Here's the ASX All Ordinaries for the past 12 months:

I am perhaps looking to add to my portfolio. I wouldn't be comfortable doing so until a correction brings the market down to the 7000-7200 range. I don't see right now as an opportunity, but I could be wrong.

Nosler

Shell look cheap... booming profits... PE ratio of 5....

There is an old saying "the cure for a a high oil price is a high oil price". It basically means that in the past the oil price would be high and companies would invest in new oil fields and the oil price would go down.

I'm not sure that logic is so true today... governments arent allowing oil exploration for ecological reasons... despite what the environmentalists want, we're still going to need oil for the next decades... I can see Shell pushing out massive profits for years to come.

farmingquestion

Still can't be sure of the market. Market made similar moves last June/July. S&P rose 17%. Growth stocks at the time rose 20-40%.

Shedite27

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120212267#Comment_120212267

Difference this time IMO is that the stocks are crossing their 200d moving average. Back in June/July it was still very extended.

patsy_mccabe

S&P 500 PE Ratio - 30 Year Historical Chart

Consider the high inflation of the last few years, prices are not that crazy at the moment.

sp-500-pe-ratio-price-to-earnings-chart-2023-02-08-macrotrends.jpg

Patsy167

Disney up 6% overnight on the back of the layoff announcements.

Mad_maxx

Disney is my largest holding with a dollar cost average of $106

on a different note , thankfully I lightened up on Google prior to earnings , be fine long term

littlevillage

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120218815#Comment_120218815

Yeah, Disney, Wynn resorts and Halliburton knocking it out of the park for me in 2023. Question is do I take some profit now?? ....all about 25% above my BEP.

Rest of my portfolio treading water, and future recession could still be on the horizon

Shedite27

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120218905#Comment_120218905

They jumped on earnings last week ($101-$107), the drop back to $100 yesterday was blamed on a technical issue with a AI demo it gave

Mad_maxx

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120219687#Comment_120219687

They had a poor quarter

DirectorKrennic

I've been interested in the market for years and used to work with high net worth clients and retail clients. I worked with retail clients in 2016 and they always bought really speculative stuff, the wealthy clients bought boring blue chip, Bank of America, etc. Personally some stocks I like now are Ulta Beauty, LVMH, and Coca Cola. I'm unlikely to buy Tesla and Amazon because the p/e ratio is too high, I'm very boring and just invest a little bit each month into the S&P 500. I also like the Nifty Fifty. Only shame is Ireland taxes ETF's at what 42% every 8 years? I've always felt it is a great shame we don't encourage small shareholders to invest the way they do in Australia, Canada and the USA. All everyone can remember are the bank stocks collapsing and eircom but the opportunity to become a part owner of the largest companies in the world is a wonderful freedom to have that people don't take advantage of. Sometimes I mention buying stocks to people I've just met and they look at you like you've two heads lol

patsy_mccabe

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120220640#Comment_120220640

Basically it's the difference between those trying not to lose their small fortune and those trying to make theirs.

Mantis Toboggan

Alphabet nose diving could be a good opportunity to jump on, I don't think Chat GPT is a risk in the short to medium term.

Shedite27

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120220979#Comment_120220979

Exactly, high net worth individuals are looking for safe haven to beat inflation.

DirectorKrennic

Yeah I mean the approach I saw the high net worth clients take was very conservative, somewhat 'boring' as an investment strategy. Yet, over time none of their investments would implode, they were well diversified and then because of the large size of their portfolios would be brining in thousands in dividend income a month. I did see a lot of retail investors at peak cannabis time do 10-20x on their initial investments however anyone who sold out made a fortune, those who held on would have lost a fortune. I personally am not wealthy and am trying to mimic what I saw the wealth do with my portfolio, I've been able to outperform the S&P 500 in bad years, not perform as well in good years but when you only have a few k, I mean, turning a few thousand into a fortune is going to take a very long time realistically. Good to see people in Ireland are somewhat interested in investing though. As they say in that book 'Capital' we can't rely solely on our labour income indefinitely.

daheff

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120221078#Comment_120221078

agreed. i bought a small amount ~95 on the back of this. I think the embarrassment alone will make them redouble their efforts and the share price will recover reasonably quickly.

Mantis Toboggan

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120225195#Comment_120225195

Yeah I think 95 and under is a good price however I've been using chat Gpt the last few days and it's very impressive.

Snugbugrug28

Is there a way to track just the Irish index?

crushproof

4D Pharma DDDD officially gone bust, I'd say there's lots of disappointed and annoyed investors on here.

1percent

Ya I was left bag holding on DDDD not too bad only €400, I assume it will be closed off on Degiro and the loss will be written off against my CGT this year

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120244952#Comment_120244952

I wonder who will pick up the technology.

daheff

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120227488#Comment_120227488

there used to be an Irish ETF. not sure if its still going

Supercell

I think we are due another dump again. After flip flopping a few times in the last week am back to 40% stocks (v high conviction - PERI, MGNI, DOCN, BAM, BN) and 60% cash. DOCN is massively volitile and my biggest concern, MGNI has earnings coming up and could soar or dump but advertising has been doing doing well recently so i'm hopeful.

BAM defaulted on loans for two skyscrapers in LA which is concerning but the market doesnt seem bothered, doesnt sit well with me, may trim some there.

Very happy to see that the Irish taxation rules on ETF's are under review, if they became treated like stocks I'd go ETF only to be honest. About time we joined the rest of the world in that regards.

Shedite27

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120251496#Comment_120251496

What does PERI do? Why such high conviction?

Supercell

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120251708#Comment_120251708

I'm in PERI since it was $13 a couple of years ago so nearly 3x by now and i expect 4x at least by EOY this year.

They are an adveritising busines with increasing revenues from CTV (steaming) and have a partnership with Microsoft Bing that produces a nice revenue stream but increasingly less and less as other sources grow.

They constantly beat on earnings and more often than not raise estimes between earnings. When the market dropped last year by ~20% they rose ~20%. Their CEO is brilliant though is stepping back this summer which is a concern however he is remaining as a Board member and his replacement was hand picked by him several years ago so hopefully it will be business as usual for the foreseable = better shareprises

awec

Mine are like a rollercoaster at the moment. Up down up down up down up down pretty much daily.

Supercell

Looks like the US market is about to dip below the MOAT line again, last 14 months have been a disaster!

weemcd

Anyone tempted by Amazon yet? No position but might be getting to a level I'd consider a buy, long-term hold only.

Mantis Toboggan

CRH moving to US based stock exchange, might be a good time to jump on.

Shedite27

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120306224#Comment_120306224

I find with those stocks, most pension funds have loads of them anyway, so I tend to leave them at that

littlevillage

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120306743#Comment_120306743

Was about to bail out of a small position, I have in CRH. Thankfully didn't. Its up about 20% this week alone. US infrastructure spending should be a positive tailwind going forward.

Unfortunately I did sell out of positions I had in Cairns homes and Permanent TSB, which are also up about 20% in the last week or two. ISEQ in general going gangbusters these days.

patsy_mccabe

I've a small bit of CRH. Bought it in April 2020 for €24.40. It's one of my smallest positions, but my largest gain at present.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120220979#Comment_120220979

Speculate to create wealth, and be conservative to maintain it.

notsocutehoor

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120306743#Comment_120306743

Presumably they will still be maintaining their secondary listing in Dublin.

Probably the safest, if unspectacular, share you could invest in.

patsy_mccabe

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120314544#Comment_120314544

Currently trading at 10 times cash flow with a ROI of 13%. Not exactly dear even at present.

jant2

I see CRH and CRH (ADR) listed. Would the US listing tend to mirror the price of the other? Is there a rational for purchasing one over the other?

Please bear with me, I am new to investing.

Shedite27

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120319974#Comment_120319974

Yes the prices will mirror each other within a few cents. Buying in US is cheaper transaction costs, but you get the currency risk if the dollar/euro fluctuates too much

The Phantom Jipper

Is anyone here in Malin Corporation? Interesting to see the buyback offer at €9.30 a pop. Seems to be at a decent premium to where its been trading at lately.

littlevillage

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120321696#Comment_120321696

I was part of a previous Malin tender offer (2021), I think they bought about three quarters of the shares I wanted to sell.

Basically if the offer is over subscribed, then once the €140 million is spent... they won't buy any more shares, soo you could end up stuck with some of the shares... Market Share price will fall after the tender closing date too, of course.... Soo hence the price difference between the offer price and the current market share price.

patsy_mccabe

I bought shares in Kimball International KBAL way back in Jan 2021. The share price had tanked all along. Price jumped 85% today. They are to be acquired by HNi Corp.

"Under the terms of the agreement, Kimball International shareholders will receive $9.00 in cash and 0.1301 shares of HNI common stock for each share of Kimball International common stock they own"

HNI Corporation to Acquire Kimball International (yahoo.com)

Supercell

What do you guys think about the US banking crisis last week? I sold everything bar PERI early on Friday, stuff I sold went lower but I still lost a fair bit last week. Can't help but feel there are some tasty opportunities there after the banking sell off, high risk high reward as they say.

My plan is to sit things out until the dust settles, can we buy US bonds on Degiro or something thats safe as houses and gives some small returns while the cash is parked for a bit?

Whats your plan?

Shedite27

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120346041#Comment_120346041

Yeah I'm following it keenly, as I've invested in a. lot of companies that are Silicon Valley based. Sounds like the liquidators are indicating about 60%-80% of cash will be recovered to the policyholders. There's lists online of what companies will lose money, Roku looks the biggest so far. In theory if their book value of say 50bn included 1bn cash, and they lose 60% of that cash, it should trim down their value (and stock price accordingly, would only be 2/3% which they probably lost Friday anyway.

Bigger problem will be if any smaller startups lose significant money, or if the activities the the bank was engaged in (not hedging against interest rates), is more widespread.

I'm watching with interest, but not convinced it'll be too impactful yet.

farmingquestion

They went tits up because there was a run on them. So I'd say a lot of money will have evaporated.

I haven't added any money to stocks in about 6 months and am just going to wait it out. Inflation is still as much of a problem as it was so I can't see inflation coming down to 2% without economic pain.

We'll soon be two years into higher than desired inflation which means there's every chance it's embedded. Food prices just keep going up non stop.

Supercell

What a day, bought a few hundred each of PACW and WAL in between halts, suffice it to say its been a good day so far!

crushproof

Should have known to stock up on banking shares yesterday. It was obvious that SVB was an outlier and the rest were safe.

Shedite27

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120358090#Comment_120358090

It's not over yet, 6 more banks under scrutiny today.

https://www.businesstoday.in/silicon-valley-bank/story/silicon-valley-bank-collapse-6-us-banks-under-moodys-review-lens-373285-2023-03-14

Supercell

Credit Suisse down the tubes, contagion spreading, Out of bank stocks for now, back to mostly cash.

https://twitter.com/Schuldensuehner/status/1635940215624695808?s=20

That's shocking - going to be a massive rock about to be dropped into the banking pool.