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Share Picks 2023

  • 03-01-2023 1:17pm
    #1
    Hosted Moderators Posts: 22,983 ✭✭✭✭


    What are your share picks for this year? I've gotten rid of Pilbarra, got a good return from them. Withdrew the funds though, for other household expenses. I think Amazon will still grow this year.



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Comments

  • Registered Users Posts: 15,220 ✭✭✭✭Supercell


    PERI ..that's about it. Thinking of silver miners too as a hedge. Many commentators saying we may have a brief bear market rally this month followed by a big dump in Feb and March. So for now that's my gameplay.

    Eying up TSLA below $70, maybe down all the way to $63'ish there if the markets have one final (hopefully) dump.

    I'm nervous about Taiwan, Brazil and Ukraine escalations as well as COVID too, seems like we are headed into shark infested waters globally right now.

    Have a weather station?, why not join the Ireland Weather Network - http://irelandweather.eu/



  • Administrators Posts: 53,038 Admin ✭✭✭✭✭awec


    The Musk factor makes me nervous of Tesla. I find him an incredibly unimpressive individual who has landed himself in trouble buying Twitter.

    Have you seen the absolute state of their Cybertruck? Years behind schedule and looks like it was designed by some intern with a ruler.

    IMO more drops to come there.



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,521 ✭✭✭antimatterx


    My plan for Q1 is to continue adding to a cash position. I think there is more pain to come, unemployment will go up and counties will start officially labelling the current economic situation as a recession.

    Stock wise I'm looking at Amazon, Apple, Microsoft at maybe 15-20% lower. Tesla at $60-$70. Coinbase could also be a good buy.

    Outside of stocks, I think Bitcoin and Ethereum could prove to be lucrative long term opportunities if they continue to plunge. Bitcoin at ~12K and Ethereum at ~600 are my targets. I'm happy to take the risk, so will probably allocate 30% of my portfolio to crypto.

    I'm tempted to expose 5% of my portfolio to Gold and Silver.

    Let's see how this year goes.



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,521 ✭✭✭antimatterx


    I agree there are more drops to come. Not just for Tesla, but across the market. I think $60 - $70 is a buy range for Tesla.



  • Registered Users Posts: 113 ✭✭AnF Chuckie egg


    2022 was a good year for me with Exxon-mobil a 3X in 18 months and now at the moment I am selling Bank of Ireland which is another 3.5X winner. I managed to get out of Baba with just a small loss. I am sitting on many stocks that are down over 50%, crspr stocks in particular but I am going to hold as I do believe that some of them are going to be game changes and they are not a big % of my portfolio, I've a lot of cash to reinvest now.

    Over the last month I've added Intel, I think they have turned the ship and I really like Pat Gelsinger, he's a good leader and that's half the battle. Price target for me is $55 in 18-24 months.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 228 ✭✭Mach 3


    2023

    We are now in the 3rd year of the US presidential cycle which is historically the strongest performaning year in the cycle.

    We have inflation, but do we have wage inflation? From what I can see the only ones making money are self employed and highly experienced in their niche. Anyone working for the "man" is on the backf oot(where are all the tech workers going to get jobs after lay offs?).if this doesn't cchange soon there will be social unrest.

    What are normal joe soaps ("you") going to spend their hard earned on this year?

    The new car phase is done and dusted after covid.

    Houses are a wait and see. Extensions and renovations most likely the biggest winner this year.

    Holidays are probably the big winners this year. Plenty of beaten down stocks after covid.

    Gambling outlets historical thrive in times of recession as people throw caution to the wind.

    Stock are worth what people are willing to pay for them. If big money has pulled out of growth stocks, retail/dumb money is not going to move the dial. By all means there is some value to be had in divided aristocrats, but if the joe soap doesn't have the mon there will be no fun.

    Happy hunting.



  • Registered Users Posts: 9,325 ✭✭✭Shedite27


    Home Depot is one that always seems to do well, it's a bit different from the usual Tech stocks i am attracted to but think that'll be one of the first I pickup this year when i'm ready.



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,251 ✭✭✭massdebater


    I'd be looking at the likes of Dollar Tree and Dollarama if talks of recession keep up. Budget shops for household goods should do well if everyone is watching their money this year.



  • Registered Users Posts: 228 ✭✭Mach 3


    Okay let us divide "Joe Soap" into two simplicity categories*:

    •Home owners.

    •Non Home Owners.

    Do home owners buy Ikea(example for Ireland) to fully furnish their forever home or just bits and bobs? Do non home owners (renters, live at home and landlords) buy Ikea?

    Which category do you suppose has the most spending power?

    What do you think either category is going to spend their money on this year?

    Recent home buyers (last 3 years)are spending feck all unless they are experienced in their niche. Probably have the new or nearly knew car.

    The Tiger(great financial recession)home owners have got the laptops, pc's ps5, tablets, the 300ft next generation tvs and phones to beat the beat the band. New or nearly car(s) and a chunk of cash as they will never be caught out again.

    The morgage free home owners as above and Probably board have the t- shirts to prove it( with a feck off tesla.

    The non home owners are board and sick of saving only to realise that they are a chasing their own tail.

    2023:

    Home extensions/renovations.

    Holidays (and I mean lots of holidays each and every subcategory).

    Gambling.



    *trying to be analytical not condescending or insulting.



  • Registered Users Posts: 529 ✭✭✭Ekerot


    BBBYBros....we're back in the game!



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  • Registered Users Posts: 1,774 ✭✭✭Patsy167


    I thought the below was a handy guide for anyone that appreciates a good visual - https://www.visualcapitalist.com/predictions-2023/



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,659 ✭✭✭crushproof


    Edesa dropped 42% today on the back of poor test results. Wiped out a decent run since the start of the year.



  • Registered Users Posts: 228 ✭✭Mach 3


    Home Depot (HD)

    Is currently sitting at the top of a $67 trading range. It looks like a double bottom has formed from the June and September lows.

    If it breaks out it would take it up to last years highs or 20% higher from current price.

    Not beyond the realms of possibility with all the damage from hurricanes in the US of late.



  • Registered Users Posts: 228 ✭✭Mach 3


    Armstrong World Industries Inc (AWI)

    Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd (NCLH)

    Worth watching also.

    NCLH has started the year at a cracking pace, expect profit taking after the quick gains 😉



  • Registered Users Posts: 949 ✭✭✭gabbo is coming


    Will it recover? Edesa



  • Registered Users Posts: 15,220 ✭✭✭✭Supercell


    Anyone jumped back in? I went 80% cash a while ago, haven't dipped back in yet but its getting awfully tempting, anyone feel the bear market is really over?

    Have a weather station?, why not join the Ireland Weather Network - http://irelandweather.eu/



  • Registered Users Posts: 499 ✭✭theboringfox


    I find it hard to call as the bets really on whether inflation under control and where rates going. Ive retreated for now to just putting surplus into pension for tax efficiency buffer and on break from individual stocks



  • Registered Users Posts: 9,325 ✭✭✭Shedite27


    Yeah I'm going to start DCA'ing in again from Feb, looks like we've turned the tide on a lot of my favourite stocks.


    As an aside, anyone else here members of MyWallSt? I see they've scrapped their €80/year subscription option and only going for the €800/year option. That's an odd business move IMO, surely there' a lot of people are happy to pay a fiver a month, but €50 a month is a proper commitment.



  • Registered Users Posts: 81 ✭✭bankboucy


    Glenveagh Properties - some of this years delivery stuck in the planning mud weighing on valuation.....however.......LTI rules moving from 3.5x to 4x which is supportive of housing pricing even in a rising interest rate environment..........then throw in the general housing shortage & cost of NOT owning a home i.e. the alternative product - renting.....then all government supports (Help to Buy AND First Home scheme) that are directed at new build housing market. House prices might fall but I dont new build house prices are falling any time soon. Thats the macro backdrop - which I would say is supportive of new build house price stability and/or inflation.

    Company specific - Glenveagh, via its offsite timber frame construction facilities & vertical integration, will be if it isn't already, the low cost producer of a new build home in Ireland. Nobody should be able to touch them. Owning the low cost producer tends to be a great place to be as an investor - think Ryanair etc.

    Its focus on partnerships with local councils/LDA where council/LDA provides the land...... plus its new lets call it 'farmer' land partnerships scheme where it takes an option, subject to planning, to buy land from the owners of zoned land (who are digesting the new unused land tax problem) should see Glenveagh reduce the amount of owned land it carries on its books......and move closer to a more capital/land light 'land option' model ala $NVR in USA. This should change the valuation framework from a traditional price to book metric most commonly used for home builders to a multiple of capacity & margin model.

    Glenveagh in advance of this is reducing its land holdings and recycling that capital into share buybacks reducing shares outstanding significantly & driving future EPS up. Is it a sexy tech stock, no....is it gonna rip 50% in a day like Bed, Bath & Bankruptcy, no.......but demographics are destiny....Ireland needs perhaps 62,000 homes a year built to house our growing population and replace old housing stock......money is being thrown at the problem by this government and whatever government comes next even Sinn Fein......Glenveagh is a strategic private sector solution.....Government does policy and makes plans.....somebody needs to, eventually, build the damn things....and GLV will build houses cheaper and quicker than anybody else can.



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,717 ✭✭✭littlevillage


    The beaten down FAANG's putting a nice green glow on my portfolio, last week or two. Glad I held firm and didn't cash the suckers in, when all seemed lost there a little while back



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  • Registered Users Posts: 9,325 ✭✭✭Shedite27


    Yeah dipped my toes in again today, Shopify, Crowdstrike and AirBnB. 3 big losers over the past year, but companies I expect to be far bigger in 5 years



  • Registered Users Posts: 6,402 ✭✭✭weemcd


    Terrible earnings from Intel. Anyone tempted or are they well worth avoiding? I've no real exposure to semiconductors, and I prefer AMD and others above Intel, but still...



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,717 ✭✭✭littlevillage


    Intel results not exactly impressing the market today 🤷‍♂️



  • Registered Users Posts: 113 ✭✭AnF Chuckie egg


    This has already been priced in. Intel was trading as high as $68 in the last 18 months and this earning drop has been well flagged. Long term they will be fine. The investment in foundries will pay off as we are down to only only 3 companies that can compete in Chip manufacture and Intel are the only ones who will have space to grow. TSMC and Samsung are both at capacity with no major plans to increase. I'd like to see them slim down the fat of the workforce a bit more while they are at it wrt job cuts. Like every other tech company they have dead weight that needs to be cut loose



  • Registered Users Posts: 13,505 ✭✭✭✭Mad_maxx




  • Registered Users Posts: 1,718 ✭✭✭ballyharpat


    Ive gotten in recently again, after some in and out of apple and taking profit over the last 6 months, also had some gains in ITKY, lost a lot on ABNB last year, but I've been following it down and recovering well over the last few weeks. I got into TSLA at $110 doing well on that, Bought INTC ot its high yield and low p/e, even after the drop today, I'm in green, I see it recovering. I bought KRZ as a solid growth stock, they do well in recessions, lots of cash and always buying. I have an etf on China as well.


    I'm about 60% in stocks, rest cash. (of my liquid portfolio). Truth be told, I got badly burned in covid when Oil went negative for that brief time- I lost about 90k, but now that is only about 40k of a loss, and that 90k had come from 30k invested, so I guess I'm up 50% in about 5 years, nearly as good a return as a rental property yield in that time.



  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    I’ve mentioned Jazz Resources previously. Now called JZR Gold.

    They have been milling tailings and some new ground for some time.

    Results are overdue, but from PR last week and previous I’m expecting results in the next couple of weeks. Signs are good from my reading of PRs…

    Speculative of course.



  • Registered Users Posts: 19,397 ✭✭✭✭cnocbui


    Speculative is usually an understatement in relation to gold miners. The most accurate description I have ever seen for gold mines is 'a big hole in the ground with an even bigger liar at the top.'

    I got singed slightly by one a few years ago, but got suspicious early enough to pull the plug before the big crash. Only lost one sleeve off the shirt.



  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    But, but... I've done my DD 😟 What could go wrong...

    ...

    ...

    ...

    🤢🤮



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  • Registered Users Posts: 19,397 ✭✭✭✭cnocbui


    Well just as an example of my own blunder, I bought into an Australian gold miner, Dacian, and it all looked really good, drilling results, assays and so on, until it emerged that the MD had done the geological report himself and not an outsider and this emerged as it all began to unravel and the MD suddenly left and actual yields started to diverge from the estimated yields considerably.

    This is what can go wrong: Dacian:

    I also had a dissapointing experience with another gold miner, Medusa mining, another WA firm with their main mine in the Phillipines. Again, actual performance vs stated prospects didn't eventuate. I have absolutely no evidence, but I began to suspect that politicaly influential and internal interests were just basically rocking up and driving away with gold bars before they were tallied. So the mine was well viable, but I became convinced it's output was being under reported and that it was being run for the benefit of local politicians and those running it, not the investors.

    I really should have known better as I have personally known the MD of a gold mining company in WA. No amount of DD can even begin to get near revealing the real situation with gold miners, IMO, except maybe huge players like Newcrest.



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