Cost of a United Ireland and the GFA

Charles Babbage

If things work out as in 1921, without the transfer of debt then that is workable.

blanch152

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120089355#Comment_120089355

How many times does it have to be explained that this is not 1921? The size of state involvement in 1921 was miniscule, yet it nearly bankrupted the new State.

Charles Babbage

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120089399#Comment_120089399

I am perfectly aware that it is not 1921. At that time, things were made much worse by the anti treaty lunatics trying to wreck the place.

jh79

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120089230#Comment_120089230

While that might explain the lack of action from FF/FG , it doesn't explain SF lack of action. One theory is the bleak economic outlook for a UI from Ireland's perspective is holding them back.

facehugger99

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120089199#Comment_120089199

Is this the United Ireland equivalent of a magic money tree?

Vague feelings that some third party will write a big juicy cheque to solve all the financial issues.

Unfortunately in the real world , fact will always trump feelings and there are no facts to back any of this up.

blanch152

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120089851#Comment_120089851

SF are petrified of coming off the fence on any issue.

Take something as simple as the VAT rate. Can you get any SF representative, or any of their "supporters" on here to commit to the VAT rate in the south or in the north? Nope, they all retreat into the mantra that a plan from the government is needed or that it will be ok because the Americans will pay for it.

There isn't a single poster on here in favour of a united Ireland prepared to take a clear position on anything.

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120089851#Comment_120089851

SF will face the same scrutiny as FF FG if they ignore the issue when they are in power.

Nothing tangible has been done to achieve either constitutional aim for 100 years by FF or FG* and I laid out one (the main reason IMO) reason why that is. Fear f losing the power. Jack Lynch blurted it out at the start of the most recent conflict, did he not.

*Pressure from a growing SF has forced our putative republican party FF to set up the Shared Island Unit and that is about the height of it.

blanch152

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120090526#Comment_120090526

Well, the constitutional aim has been removed. We no longer have a territorial claim, and only seek to reunite the people. So, you can say that progress has been made in that the belligerence on the side of the south has been stood down, so to speak. The GFA was a massive step forward in creating lasting peace by recognising the legitimacy of British rule on this island, and the right to a British identity.

There is no need to be in government to progress the issue. Within the Dail, any political party can propose legislation, outside the Dail, any political party can put forward their detailed ideas and proposals. That SF have not done so on Northern Ireland reflects their general position of not having a position (does anybody know if they ever made their mind up on the appropriate level of climate emissions for agriculture?).

The Shared Island Initiative is to be warmly welcomed. It deliberately does not rely on constitutional change to achieve the objectives of peace, but rather on the broader wellbeing aspects of people working together. A very good lesson in it for the good republicans out there.

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120090683#Comment_120090683

You cannot on the one hand say that the future must be agreed and then lay out the terms yourself.

A proposal on a UI will come when all those proposing it sit down and agree it.

The Shared Ireland Initiative is probably now going to be quietly stood down by FG. FF got it's response from Unionism...several of the ministers of the present government have been threatened and warned and the cross border institutions of the GFA boycotted.There is still a significant rump of Unionism who don't want to 'share'.

facehugger99

Nothing tangible has been done to achieve either constitutional aim for 100 years 

Tells you everything you need to know about the importance of this issue for the vast majority of the electorate, Add in the concept of all workers having to pay a 'unification tax' for decades and you'll get a sense of the likelihood of this ever happening.

Irish politicians are experts in kicking the can down the road. On this particular issue it's pretty clear that the electorate support this position.

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120090736#Comment_120090736

Look at any of the major changes to society and you could say the same thing, women's rights, divorce, SSM etc etc.

Society and electorates change and are led to that change in many instances. That's been largely a good thing IMO

Brendan Bendar

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120090768#Comment_120090768

I’d have to say there is no great swell of public opinion for a UI.

I feel it is only a lot of driven folk with an agenda and ,well, no dog in the fight income wise , who are driving this campaign.

The fact that SF are dipping rapidly in the polls re-enforces this lack of enthusiasm for those whose livelehoods

depend on it.

jh79

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120090526#Comment_120090526

It does seem like a valid reason why FF and FG have done so little but I would add that they continue to get away with this approach because the public are not particularly interested anyways. Pretty obvious now that the SF surge has nothing to do with unity and the Shared Island Unit wasn't necessary to gain back ground.

SF should face further scrutiny if they continue to sit on their hands in government but they shouldn't be let off the hook for their negative effect on unity to date. The correlation between the increase in SF support and drop in unity support shouldn't be ignored.

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120090914#Comment_120090914

Who was claiming SF's growth had to do with unity?

And you can hold anyone you want to account for the 'negative' effect on unity to date.

I personally always hold those with the 'power' responsible first and foremost.

blanch152

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120090969#Comment_120090969

So you blame the ordinary people?

blanch152

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120090725#Comment_120090725

Dissembling nonsense. Saying that the future must be agreed does not prevent any actor from setting out their view of a possible way forward. SF have been the least ambitious political party in the State in furthering a united Ireland. Their actions, and the actions of those they support and defend, have set a united Ireland back by decades.

If the people of this island don't want the Shared Island initiative, well then, that is fine, that is the democratic will.

Brendan Bendar

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120090969#Comment_120090969

Hmmm… so if “those with the power” can see that a UI would bankrupt the country given the set up of the economy in NI, where a huge segment of the population are employed by the Jurisdiction, then you would blame “those with the power” for driving the car over the cliff anyway!!!

Very strange attitude one would have to say.

jh79

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120090969#Comment_120090969

SF are the biggest party in NI and have power. I take it you hold them responsible so for the poor returns in the polls in NI?

You don't think it would be prudent for SF in the Republic to sell unity to those in NI whether in power or not and especially with how close they are to being in government?

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120090983#Comment_120090983

No...ordinary people don't have power.

We have two constitutional imperatives in the lifetime of the state. Both were largely ignored in any effective way.

Partition is now the cause of a festering situation on this island again. It is a cyclical problem because it was wholly wrong to begin with.

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120091073#Comment_120091073

I blame those who are responsible for making the proposal - I.E. The Irish government for their inaction.

A single political party cannot do it.

A poll without a plan/proposal is also nonsense. This isn't Brexit Britain.

You'd be the first out of the blocks complaining if anyone asked for a referendum without a plan.

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120090993#Comment_120090993

They were not asked if they wanted a Shared Island Initiative (which is a Selected Voices Only Initiative, in truth) so it wasn't the 'democratic will' to begin with.

To be a United Ireland is a democratic constitutional aim though.

Charles Babbage

I think some people here reckon that W.T. Cosgrove should have had a press conference in 1922 and stated that "this whole independence thing is actually quite complicated, so we had a meeting of the cabinet and decided not to bother".

However, I think that the vast majority of people are grateful that they did bother.

jh79

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120091114#Comment_120091114

I definitely would but there is no barrier to any party setting out their vision and the associated estimated costs for various scenarios around pensions etc. Without doubt SF have chosen to ignore the economics of unity. Doesn't exactly instill confidence in the project for those on the fence.

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120091142#Comment_120091142

Don't vote for SF then? Not sure what your obsession is with them.

If you think you know how pensions will work out, then let that inform your vote when the time comes.

I don't know and nor will I, like some, pretend I know, because it requires input from the stakeholders which will be given when the government begin to produce the plan/White Paper. At that point all parties will be asked for their input. It shouldn't be, like the Shared Island initiative. just selected voices but everyone's opinion that is assessed.

ittakestwo

Judging from polls a UI is not conceivable now, probably not for at least another 10 years at earliest (providing Scotland does not leave the UK) so I see why politicians are not wasting too much time talking about it.

Also economics is extremely dynamic. The cost of unification in 2023 would be competently different to what it will be in 2033. I keep hearing NI runs a deficit of about £12bn. How do we know what this will be in 10 years time. Look how quick the Souths economy changed in the boom years. The NIP coupled with the south lifting the Norths economy up at the moment means along with London it is the best performing part of the UK. The all Ireland economy and the fact NI still has access to Europe will probably continue to improve it in the decade ahead.

ittakestwo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120090993#Comment_120090993

and if Irish people do vote for ireland to be unified that is also fine. it will be a new state. Presumably it will be a democratic republic.

Count Dracula

Gotta love the thought process on the big Yank bail out once the behemoth is pushed over the line and Fenian victory is officially, or provisionally or finally declared.

I can see the Amhrán na Bhfiann Sunday night whip arounds really forking out the price of an extra few thousand Irish Army Squadrons. Ah here I almost forgot, sure won't the Brits merge the Irish Guard with Fianna na H Eireann, of course they will?

Deadly buzz man.... we will probably get a few Harriers thrown in for the bargain. The Para's should be ok with it?

Just tap the EU for the remaining billions, easy game.

Just make sure the boyz get any uisce fé Talaimh sorted before anything is signed over. I would say the EU would prefer to pay off the insurance on any day light robbery before the Brits wash their hands for once and for all. I would imagine Brussels are salivating at the process of paying for the most dysfunctional kip on the planet.

blanch152

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120091390#Comment_120091390

There are some on here who favour a united Ireland but believe that power doesn't belong to the people. So I wouldn't take it for granted that it will be a democratic republic.

blanch152

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120091142#Comment_120091142

Those calling for unity on here are hilarious. They want a border poll now, but they are not prepared to put forward any rationale or logic for how a united Ireland would work. Some of the stuff they put forward on what might appear to them to be minor issues - Queens will just have to accept the NFQ - betrays a complete lack of understanding of how the public service works and how this is not 1921, nor even 1991 when West Germany took over East Germany - Irish unity could be nothing like that.

Then, having spluttered their way to incoherence over what ideas they might have, they have the brazen audacity to criticise the government for not producing a plan for a united Ireland that nobody is actually looking for, while at the same time, excusing their political comrades in Sinn Fein for their failure to have even one dim lightbulb moment about how it might work.

It is quite unbelievable.

Sam Russell

Well, getting back to the thread title, the cost of a UI would depend on how the Westminster over-spends over the last 50 years are assigned to NI.

There is a notional redistribution of UK costs and debts assigned to the various devolved Gov based on population, which given that NI is one of the poorest, would appear to be unjust. For example, the SE of England, the richest area, gets to benefit from the big ticket items like HS2, Cross Rail and Heathrow expansion, while NI benefits form The Titanic Quarter and - what else? The tory chums have also benefitted to billions of dodgy contracts, which have nothing to do with NI.

That lot alone adds up to GB£5 billion or so to the NI subvention - little or none of it attributed to NI, except by Westminster accounting.

If we could lose that, it would go a long ay to allowing the numbers to be manageable.

However, there are much bigger problems to be dealt with before even looking for a UI poll. With ever higher peace walls, and massive bonfires with a Tricolour atop burning on the eve of July 12th, then there are a lot of issues that would make a UI not worth contemplating for a good while.