Cost of a United Ireland and the GFA

jh79

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120054965#Comment_120054965

Part of NI problem is poor governance. Conor Murphy has been a disaster. Who's to say that in a United Ireland that poor governance wouldn't just continue.

Maybe SF should try to fix the economy in Northern Ireland first and then consider unity when it is more affordable? If they can't make a fist of it as part of the uk you'd hardly have confidence in them to make a go of it in a UI.

Capt'n Midnight

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120055102#Comment_120055102

How exactly are SF going to fix the economy on their own ?

No majority and no partners , no money and dependence on outside assistance is against their religion.

Sam Russell

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120055102#Comment_120055102

If SF did actually fix NI's economy, the net result would be a significant reduction in the UK Gov subvention, so it would be a bit like a tenant improving the gaff for the landlord to put up the rent.

It would take a decade to get the west of the Ban to reach the levels of prosperity of Galway, Limerick and Cork. Perhaps much more to rival Dublin.

The EU have funding streams that would help largely with that, and the UK could be persuaded to help - though not without some benefit to them elsewhere. Again the EU could have a few carrots to feed their donkeys in the ruling parties.

Remember, there are the 'Three Is' in USA politics - the Irish, the Italians, and Israel. Their influence could well help - particularly in an election year.

jh79

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120055124#Comment_120055124

"Dependence on outside assistance is against their religion"

I thought the EU/US were going to fund a UI !

They are the largest party in the Assembly, unless you think it is a charade surely you see they have some influence on the economy.

To be honest I wouldn't be that well versed on NI politics, would this be a fair assessment of Murphy as finance MLA?

https://sluggerotoole.com/2021/05/26/why-conor-murphys-budget-is-failing-our-people/

Bit of a dig in there too, Murphy should of been kicked out over the Paul Quinn debacle but his performance in office hardly justify his position.

"And I say this to the Sinn Fein finance minister. He should be more than the pawn delivering on behalf of the British government. He needs to be bold, to be a leader, to think for himself, do more than just accept the way things have been done in the past and the way the British government wants him to act."

Capt'n Midnight

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120055275#Comment_120055275

SF may be the biggest party but they still don't have a majority. They still don't have willing partners. Stormont is still closed.

I just can't see how NI sorts itself out even if the main parties there joined forces because the Tories are slashing budgets left right and centre. If the economy improved the subsidy would be reduced.

kazamo

The EU funding streams will be focused on the rebuilding of the Ukraine when the war is finally ended.

jh79

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120055313#Comment_120055313

If they worked with their budgets better, the amount of subsidy would reduce and also the amount needed in the event of a UI would also reduce.

The SF/IRA tactic of making NI a failed state is only hurting themselves. The polls show little appetite in Ireland for funding NI if unity becomes a realistic prospect.

asdfg22

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120054559#Comment_120054559

There will be huge cuts in civilm service in a UI. The cozy little regimes North and South be gone. There will be big saving there. The north will have access to the multi-nationals i expect. It will take about 10 years to evolve.

jh79

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120056094#Comment_120056094

You do know the NI workforce is disproportionately made up of PS workers?

Good luck getting them and their families to vote for a UI with mass PS redundancies. Doubt unity would have much support from the unions in Ireland either in such a scenario.

Sam Russell

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120056137#Comment_120056137

Well, you could say NI is short of opportunities for employment in industry and non-public service work. Also, there is a major need for PS workers in Ireland, such as planning, and other admin work.

It is likely that Irish based multi-national businesses will open up in NI (particularly with incentives) and could be attractive to current PS employees.

A UI should be seen as a win-win for all involved.

50 years ago, Ireland joined the EEC and have not looked back. Why should NI joining Ireland not be seen as a huge adventure with mostly economic upsides.

Capt'n Midnight

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120056137#Comment_120056137

Natural wastage. A good % are near retirement age so there won't need to be any mass sackings.

As inward investment improves there will be other opportunities out side of state employment.

jh79

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120056184#Comment_120056184

Would natural wastage bring the % of PS workers to Irish levels? I wouldn't think so but worth checking out.

Can't see many settled in their PS careers agreeing to redundancy because some multinationals might sometime in the distant future give them an opportunity in a UI. Fitzgerald reckoned it would take 30 years for NI to catch up.

jh79

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120056175#Comment_120056175

In theory NI should prosper in a UI but with sectarianism still such an issue and no UK to bail them out it could easily get worse too. Could you imagine explaining to a CEO of a multinational what a peace wall is!

How is a UI a win-win for Ireland? Why would a Tech or Pharma company be waiting for a UI when they can easily invest in Cork or Dublin?

jh79

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120056184#Comment_120056184

Had a Google and 27% of the workforce in NI works in the PS. It's 13% in Ireland.

There are nearly as many PS workers in NI as Ireland (300k v 250k).

They would need to lose 100k to normalise the situation. No chance the people of NI would vote for that. No chance Ireland will pay for them and give them Irish PS pay too if they stay.

I just don't think it's possible to keep both sides happy to get a UI.

Count Dracula

It astonishes me how naive some of the posters are. Words like British Colony and I read somewhere about a repatriation scheme? What the phuck are you clowns on about?

If I came around to your gaff tomorrow, where you have lived and worked all your life and said to " hello there, I am from a different country and we think it is time that we started talking about your future here" .... " how do you feel about turning your back on your entire identity and phucking the phuck off over the water where we think you belong" ... " more than 50% of the people living over a 200 miles away think you should?"

Get an absolute grip on what pours out your gobs. The biggest problem with the peace in the six counties is that it brought with it a total lack of realistic conjecture in what is being said. Every Irish person in the north has been completely patronised and agreed with ,,,, not just by their own either? Appeasement does not mean your opinion is being considered, it simply means that it is not being opposed... just at the moment?

Do you really think that 1 million people would even consider leaving their lives because you want to live in some Irish Utopia? Really?

The only unionists who left the free state in 1922 were army officers, actual Lords or Earls, who were physically burnt out by locals and/or other British born civies who didn't fancy hanging around a country riddled in conflict. Which by the way is all you are going to get when you propose to a million people that you think it might be a nice option for them to leave their homes and livelihoods because you think that is a good idea?

Get a grip you clowns, please? It is nauseating the drivel that pours from it. Unreasonably biased tripe that will get you nowhere, at all.

Capt'n Midnight

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120056275#Comment_120056275

Cheaper local wages because cheaper to live there. Cheaper land.

Political instability is an issue at the moment with the NI Assembly paused now and then.

blanch152

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120056330#Comment_120056330

Pretty accurate summary.

It seems like the nationalist approach to a border poll is to say to NI residents, please vote for a united Ireland because we will give you a chance to leave your family and friends behind and move to the UK, and if you don't want to go, we will fire you from your public service job and hopefully some pharma or tech multinational will hire you instead, even if you are a 50-year old without a degree or any other qualification.

Based on that approach, the 30% support for a united Ireland seems like an overestimation.

Sam Russell

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120059166#Comment_120059166

There are no proposals whatsoever as to what would be proposed in a United Ireland wrt to any issues you allude to in your post.

There are Unionists, like Arlene Foster, who have said that if a UI comes about then they will leave NI - not sure where to, but that has been stated. I have no idea how many would subscribe to that point of view, or how many would actually leave following a vote for a UI. No-one will be forced to leave, but many Unionists left Dublin for NI 100 years ago to avoid living in the Free State, but many did not. Carson - did he leave?

There is no likelihood of wholesale redundancies in the NI Public Services, and if there were, they would not be based on firing the incumbents but offering a generous redundancy package.

There could be administration work that moves north to be done by some departments, like agriculture, health, planning. The skills are the same both sides of the border, so it is possible to do that.

If new employment arrives owing to FDI, some new hires will be from NI emigrants returning home, some will be people moving north, and some will be local. Also economic benefits will flow to the locality as a result of that employment.

The benefits of a UI will take a decade to fully integrate, but some will be immediate.

There is a sense that project fear is already underway.

blanch152

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120059241#Comment_120059241

Who will fund the generous redundancy package? The US? The EU? Hilarious stuff.

Right, so now we expect that the southern taxpayer will bear the cost of the bloated NI public service, the increased cost of social welfare harmonisation while watching FDI jobs move to Northern Ireland. Do you remember the result when the Irish people were asked if they would vote for a united Ireland if it meant higher taxes?

There is an unsolvable dichotomy. You need to promise the sun, moon and stars to Northern Irish voters so that they will vote for a united Ireland but that leaves a bill that the southern taxpayers won't pay.

Margaret Thatcher famously said that "The problem with socialism is that you eventually run out of other people's money". This is the same problem that united Irelanders have. A united Ireland will cost an awful lot of money through the €10bn subsidy, the harmonisation of social welfare upwards, the harmonisation of tax downwards etc., that you end up not being able to afford it.

Sam Russell

@blanch152 I do not think you read my post - well not correctly.

The NI PS is just bloated because there are not enough non-PS employees paying taxes to support them. Increase employment and the PS ceases to be bloated. Increase the workload of these NI PS employees by taking some of the load from the current Irish PS employees.

I actually said that there was no likelihood of wholesale redundancies in the NI PS. You then changed that to say there would be. All redundancy payments are generous - that is the nature of voluntary arrangements.

The burden of the cost of a UI would depend on the settlement agreed by all parties - before the vote takes place. The current 'subvention' includes a small item of 'allocated expenditure' which looks to me to be a made up number plucked from the rarefied atmosphere found in the higher levels of the Whitehall mandarins as they try to justify budgets - like the Barnet Formula - allocating whole of the UK expenditure to each region, while the vast majority is down to England. HS2, Heathrow expansion, and Crossrail are all big ticket items that only benefit the SE of England.

SW harmonisation will come with taxation harmonisation. Could it balance out? Depends.

blanch152

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120060299#Comment_120060299

If you do anything other than harmonise social welfare upwards (or are you going to specify who will lose out?) and taxation downwards (are you going to tell either set of taxpayers they will have to pay more?), you harm the chances of a united Ireland getting passed. That leaves a big black hole in the finances which could also harm the chances of a united Ireland getting passed. It also explains why SF are so slow to put any detail on a united Ireland and claim the gubberment has to come up with a plan. If the government ever did produce a plan that told the truth about the difficulties, SF would be on the sidelines claiming that they could do it cheaper, again without providing any details.

I haven't even gone near the idea of NI PS employees taking the burden of the current Irish PS employees. Like do you expect those extra NI teachers to move down South to work in schools? Or PSNI lads to move to Donegal? Did you ask the unions in the North if their members are prepared to take on extra work or whether the ones in the South want to lose promotion opportunities if roles move North?

The subsidy isn't a number picked from the rarefied atmosphere, but it certainly beats your economic wishful thinking which seems to have come from another dimension.

Sam Russell

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120060460#Comment_120060460

Who mentioned anything about teachers or PNSI members moving south? You just make up nonsense to refute what is not to your liking.

What do these bloated NI public servants do that makes them so bloated? Could they not be streamlined to do wider aspects of work?

SW and taxation go hand in hand. One pays for the other, and it will all balance out.

The numbers in the Barnet Formula is very much a number plucked from the air. Which bit of the HS2 or Crossrail is to be charged to NI? Any particular stations or strip of track? It is just an accounting trick to balance the books.

blanch152

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120060528#Comment_120060528

What do all these surplus PS workers do?

https://www.gov.ie/en/policy-information/fd9c03-civil-service-renewal/#:~:text=There%20are%20approximately%2040%2C000%20civil,of%20government%20departments%20and%20offices.

"There are approximately 40,000 civil servants working in a range of government departments and offices."

https://www.publicjobs.ie/en/information-hub/12-information-hub/247-about-the-public-service

"More than 300,000 public servants work across a broad range of organisations to deliver public services to the people of Ireland. This includes working in areas of education, defence, conservation, economics, health and policing."

So only just over 10% of the public service are civil servants. The rest are gardai, nurses, teachers, academics, local authority workers etc. So maybe explain to me again what the surplus nurses, PSNI employees, teachers, local authority workers in the North are going to do instead of the workers down South? I am really struggling to see how your idea could work.

You still haven't explained how you can increase social welfare and decrease taxation in a united Ireland, unless you are suggesting that southern taxpayers will have to pay more tax, in which case, you know already from the polls, that they won't vote for a united Ireland.

Sam Russell

@blanch152 What I said: 'SW and taxation go hand in hand. One pays for the other, and it will all balance out.'

What you think I said: 'You still haven't explained how you can increase social welfare and decrease taxation in a united Ireland, unless you are suggesting that southern taxpayers will have to pay more tax, in which case, you know already from the polls, that they won't vote for a united Ireland'.

If you look, they are not the same. Increase of SW would only be possible by a rise in taxation. Nowhere was a reduction in taxation mentioned, and I doubt a reduction in taxation is envisaged because of a UI.

Reduction in taxes - who would expect it - or even propose it?

blanch152

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120060671#Comment_120060671

Who would expect an increase in taxation as a result of a united Ireland???

For example, let's just take VAT. Standard rate in Ireland is 23%, standard rate in UK is 20%. Which do you think should apply in a united Ireland? When you have answered that, we can take a more detailed look at reduced rates etc.

blanch152

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120060830#Comment_120060830

The North would have voted to leave the UK, but a united Ireland would be off the table.

blanch152

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120060861#Comment_120060861

Yes, because it is unknown territory thereafter. We will have dark mutterings from the likes of MLMD of a return to violence, but other options would have to come on the table.

mazdamiatamx5

Strikes me there's an awful lot of effort expended on estimating the costs of a potential united Ireland, but very little on the costs of partition, whereas the latter are presumably much more easily provable. Which is odd.

blanch152

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120060916#Comment_120060916

Other than some relatively small extra costs relating to security and customs, there isn't much of a cost of partition to the taxpayer in the South.

Charles Babbage

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120054560#Comment_120054560

Oh right, I suppose a majority in Tyrone voted for that one?