Cost of a United Ireland and the GFA

Charles Babbage

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120059241#Comment_120059241

Project Fear is exactly what it is. Arrangements which were used when the 26 counties left the UK are being declared outrageous if applied to the 6 counties. What exactly are people saying, that the Freestate should not have been founded because it would have inconvenienced some civil servants?

As for the public service it includes health (68,263), schools, colleges and education and library boards (65,514), local government (12,134) and the Police Service of Northern Ireland (10,542).

You might privatise the bins, but the health service needs all the help it can get and the more education the better. These sectors will carry on.

HerrKuehn

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120062770#Comment_120062770

Interesting choice of words, "Project Fear". I think the original project fear was proven right in the UK. There needs to be an honest discussion about all this and people need to be well informed. Of course there are some who don't care about any financial costs, I suspect because they believe it will fall on other people. NI has a huge public sector relative to population. It is not ideal to be taking that on. Any talk of the EU or the US, or even more unbelievably the UK funding it a massively delusional. I think the UK would be delighted to get rid of NI. I think SF would agree to anything to get NI, so if they are in power, I don't think we are in a good negotiating position 😄. Ironically, SF in power in ROI would make a UI less likely as the neutrals might not be persuaded.

Sleepy

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120036114#Comment_120036114

And if the only argument you have is to call someone a "bean counter", you have no argument. Sit down. The grown ups are speaking.

blanch152

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120062740#Comment_120062740

My mistake, it was 1973.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1973_Northern_Ireland_border_poll#:~:text=It%20was%20the%20first%20time,to%20remain%20in%20the%20UK.

"On a voter turnout of 58.7 percent, 98.9 percent voted to remain in the UK."

Even if every voter who didn't turn out, voted against the border poll, it would still have been 58% in favour of the union, not far off where the polls show current support to be.

Sam Russell

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120063695#Comment_120063695

Was this border poll taken after Bloody Sunday and the Ballymurphy massacres?

Was it supported by the sort of measures the Russia employed in their 'referendums' for the annexation of parts of Ukraine earlier this year? [That is extra soldiers with guns supervising the poll.]

Same result obtained so I suppose the answer is yes.

blanch152

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120064005#Comment_120064005

What are you talking about? These false comparisons of Northern Ireland are really insulting to others. Nothing done in Northern Ireland since 1921 compares in any way to what has happened in Ukraine, really disappointed that you make such comparisons.

Charles Babbage

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120063695#Comment_120063695

Please stop wasting our time in a question about Tyrone by posting data that includes places other than Tyrone.

blanch152

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120062770#Comment_120062770

These figures show the problem.

There are approximately 27,000 employees for the 26 counties in the South. That should equate to 6,230 for the six counties. What are you going to do with the surplus 6,000 local authority employees in the North?

Comparisons with the founding of the State are frivolous at best. Taxation, social welfare (almost non-existent), pensions and public service were completely different. It really astonishes me how many people are stuck in the 1920s.

Charles Babbage

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120064387#Comment_120064387

How were bins privatised in Dublin or Cork? What happened those employees?

Also perhaps the service provision in NI is the correct one, perhaps bins should not have been privatised.

People in the 6 counties pay for their local services in a way those in the 26 counties do not, if they wish to continue to do to have the council collect their bins and pay for that then they can, if they wish.

blanch152

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120064659#Comment_120064659

This is a confusing mish-mash of a response. It seems to me that you have put forward three options:

(1) Tell all the bin workers in the North that their jobs will be privatised. Do you expect their union to accept this? Do you expect any of them to vote for a united Ireland?

(2) Nationalise the bin service in the South. This will cost several hundreds of millions. Should we add that to the cost of a united Ireland for the Southern taxpayer?

(3) Leave things as they are. How will you legally have two systems, one North, one South? Will that mean one country, two systems, and a sort of federal state?

The problem is that advocates for unity can't make your minds up about which of those situations you actually want. Hand-waving the problems away doesn't work.

Maybe you can help me with another question I have about a united Ireland. Will Queens University be forced to adopt the Irish National Framework of Qualifications?

Sam Russell

This thread is about cost of a United Ireland, not about bin collection or qualification systems for a university in Belfast.

These items are small beer in comparison to the major items - like Barnet formula for distributing notional UK-wide charges that amount to GB£5 billion per year (in the case of NI), and contributory state pensions that amount, currently, to about GB£3.5 billion (for NI). SW is also a big ticket item, but so are taxes, like VAT and income tax.

Any changes in local matters would be part of transition arrangements, but the first two I mention above are too big and not related to NI because they are UK national issues. I would not see the PNSI changing much other than transfer being enabled for members transferring either way between the two police forces. After all, pre 1922, there used to be a DMC and RIC in Ireland.

Someone entitled to a contributory pension, anywhere in the UK, is entitled to a UK pension wherever they live in the world after they reach retirement age. Now those contributions could be paid in any region of the UK, and the contributor could have moved from region to region during their working lives - so who decides that the pension of a retiree falls to the account of NI (and so to the account of a UI) or the rUK?

The contributions are collected by HMRC nationwide, and form part of the UK wide budget, and is not credited to the devolved assemblies of NI, Scotland or Wales and so is a Westminster fund. That to my mind makes them to the account of the rUK in the case of a UI.

blanch152

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120065268#Comment_120065268

I have previously linked several times to the fact that there is a separate pension fund for Northern Ireland. It is crazy that some posters attempt to post authoritatively without even knowing the fact.

https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/national-insurance-fund-accounts

I have previously pointed to the fact that it needs to be subsidised from Great Britain. That won't happen after a united Ireland. Pretending otherwise is just silliness.

What will be very interesting is how they deal with people living along the border who managed to claim two pensions from both jurisdictions. A lot of good republican pensioners could lose out in a united Ireland.

Charles Babbage

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120064742#Comment_120064742

So when Ireland takes her place in full among the nations of the world, won't someone think of the binmen (and bin women, refuse collection operatives of course)?

Sam Russell

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120072089#Comment_120072089

They can, and surely will, but not in a thread about costs of a united Ireland.

You may not have noticed, but Ireland currently sits on the Security Council of the United Nations (for the third time) so has already taken her place among the nations of the world.

Charles Babbage

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120072858#Comment_120072858

Part of Ireland has taken its place among the nations of the world, but Emmet surely hoped for all the nation to do so.

Some people here reckon that as long as their bit has, then the rest of the nation can be dispensed with, just as many believe that so long as they have adequate health care then that failure to provide health care for others is of no consequence, especially if that failure saves them money.

My point is that the real issues should not be derailed by trivia. The local authorities in the 26 counties privatised their bins at different times, at particular times there were some areas with public bins and neighbouring authorities with privatised bins, so this type of issue is of little importance and would not have to be dealt with urgently in any case.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120064742#Comment_120064742

Yes, of course Queens University will adopt the Irish National Framework of Qualifications. This too is a matter of little importance, as qualification frameworks are coordinated internationally anyhow. I would have thought that issues like the pension scheme for academic staff would be more substantial, while still very doable.

HerrKuehn

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120073101#Comment_120073101

Many people in Northern Ireland are happy with the current situation, polls would indicate the majority would vote to remain. Robert Emmet died over 200 years ago, he is not really up to date with the issues in Northern Ireland.

It seems there are quite a few people in the ROI who also doubt the benefits of a United Ireland and would like an honest discussion about what it would look like and what it would cost. The true believers prefer to wave all of that away, but the fact is, many people will want to know, will I be much worse off in a United Ireland?

Out of interest, how much would you be willing to sacrifice financially? 5k per year in increased taxation? 10k? More?

blanch152

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120073101#Comment_120073101

All of these seemingly trivial issues have a resonance with certain people. You can be certain that there are students and lecturers in Queens who will be worried (wrongly, but they will be worried) about academic standards in a united Ireland. There will also be local authority workers who will see that local authorities in the South get by with about half the number of staff and will wonder about their job. You and others have already told us that public sector workers in the North will have to take on some of the surplus work from the South. Who is going to vote for a united Ireland if it means their job gets harder?

These are everyday realities and everyday living for people. Dismissing them from some nationalist green tower as trivia is condescending. It demonstrates once again that there are nationalists with lofty ideas in principle about a united Ireland but that haven't got a clue or a concern about how a united Ireland would affect ordinary people.

Look over here, a United Ireland (Brexit) will bring untold benefits and don't worry about the details.

Count Dracula

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120062770#Comment_120062770

It is interesting to note the different policing requirements when compared between the 6 / 26 counties. On first inspection 10,452 officers to manage the shenanigans of 1.9 million crazies is glaring when contrasted against 14,700 policing 5.1 million in the Free State.

Considering that those numbers would need to be ramped up excessively once the Short Strand gets wind of a UI poll, you are also looking at deploying 1,000's more front line workers such as fire officers, medical staff.... the army?

I am not seeing any elasticity for the inevitable shítstorm which Loyalist paramilitaries can be expected to ignite, even before a vote was even arranged.

Dream on.

Charles Babbage

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120087687#Comment_120087687

You do realise that the Short Strand is nationalist, don't you?

Policing will become much simpler in Louth, Armagh, Monaghan, Cavan, Fermanagh, Leitrim, Donegal, Tyrone and Derry and much of Down. That may provide some savings.

blanch152

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120087913#Comment_120087913

Unfortunately, I don't think that simpler policing will come about. The good republican lads who have been dining out on smuggling will turn to other nefarious activities, making the policing job even harder.

Now, if you could tell me who killed Paul Quinn, that might make me believe.

Count Dracula

Short strand or sandy row , makes no odds once the bottles of petrol starting flinging themselves over every wall they can find.

Charles Babbage

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120087933#Comment_120087933

Perhaps they will, but ending ridiculous discontinuities in policing will both improve it and save money. Of course you want people in the border area to have substandard policing and other public services, but other people do not.

blanch152

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120088123#Comment_120088123

Quite the opposite. Given the amount of lawlessness prevalent among the good republicans, I would expect the ordinary people in the border area to receive above standard policing, they need it.

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120088862#Comment_120088862

Noitwithstanding the fact that the removal of a border or frontier will instantly kill the potential for smuggling/crime is there any data for your claims here other than spin, stereotyping and cliché?

blanch152

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120089009#Comment_120089009

There is no reliable data on crime. Garda-derived statistics are skewed by the presence of Gardai. Self-reporting in surveys is also problematic.

On the smuggling issue, I have already pointed to the fact that the elimination of smuggling opportunities will leave the good republican criminals with nothing to do. They turned to smuggling when the PIRA stopped them terrorising their communities. Where will they turn after smuggling is gone?

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120089062#Comment_120089062

So you have no reliable data here yet theorise on the 'amount of lawlessness' needing 'above standard policing'?

You also seem to have a lack of knowledge on the isssue of smuggling along the frontier which has been engaged in by all types, from republican to loyalist and even people not aligned either way.

https://www.itv.com/news/utv/2022-08-22/court-told-of-window-cleaners-alleged-role-in-uvf-drugs-smuggling-racket

These people are criminals, simple as, and should be treated no differently to criminals on the island as a whole. Something an all island police force will do in a better and more economical way as has been pointed out.

tayto lover

I wonder if they worried about the cost in 1922?

I'd love to see a United Ireland and I feel that it would be propped up by American and European money too.

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120089199#Comment_120089199

There were no established power bases then, petrified about losing their grip on that power.

That is basically what underpins the faux pessimism about the economic prospects of a UI now. Everything must be portrayed in the bleakest terms.

Charles Babbage

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120088862#Comment_120088862

The point is that when the border is removed they won't need any different provison than anyone else as they won't be discriminated against.and will be the same as everyone else.Remove the cause of the distortion and the distortion disappears.

Count Dracula

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120089199#Comment_120089199

The cost of partition was laid out in the London treaty 2021, the British officially turned off the taps in 1927.

They still funded and oversaw the treaty ports. Plus of course the thrifty occupied 6 counties, like to have eyeballed the budget there...... holy phuck, they must have seen it coming surely?

I would hope the budgeted handover has some scope for the inevitable detaining of irate loyalist yahoo's and the local militia which the RA will call their death squads, which will be "deployed" to "protect" local's that refuse to allow PSNI around.

I am not arsed linking brigades up at this point , Google them?

" on of those " , " coconuts " ... i would hope the budget review has left in a few billion to sort that one out.

Coz the Brits won't be paying that either.

I would make sure the AC has plans to rob a few banks before the handover, members will surely need to be brought out of retirement at that point?