Reflection on the pandemic: questions about the authorities' response.

Goldengirl

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120323575#Comment_120323575

So do you speak for all Swedes now as well as the vast majority of people in this country ? I don't think so .

Why do you think Sweden had to change their response ? Public outcry .

normanoffside

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120326939#Comment_120326939

Here's the Eurostat information which seems to back up my point. Do you trust Eurostat. I already posted an English article above.

There is an excel in the Eurostat page which you can download and see Sweden at the bottom.

https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/index.php?title=Excess_mortality_-_statistics#Excess_mortality_in_the_EU_between_January_2020_and_December_2022:~:text=Table%201%3A%20Excess%20mortality%20indicator

normanoffside

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120326939#Comment_120326939

Again, starting to be widely reported now. The source is Statistics Sweden, Eurostat etc.

Goldengirl

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120326958#Comment_120326958

Firstly , Sweden is not " at the bottom " . If you read the graph you can see that those rates are not in order unlike the Statista graph I posted .

Secondly that starts in Jan 2021 ...when do you think the worst part of Sweden's death rates occurred ?

In 2020 , as they only started to bring in restrictions in December 2020 after a public outcry .

Again I refer you to the discussion of all of this ..and more ! ...on the Sweden avoiding lockdown thread .

odyssey06

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120326958#Comment_120326958

Did you read the full article?

It states Sweden hasnt reported all its data for 2022 yet.

Plus the figures arent adjusted for demographic changes between the baseline and pandemic period.

Don't Chute!

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120326700#Comment_120326700

These peoples egos won’t even let them admit the 2km rule was nonsense they are hardly going to row back on Sweden!

Goldengirl

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120326979#Comment_120326979

Thanks for translating it for me .

I can clearly read it is an excerpt and not the full source ?

Also provides at the bottom about how the accuracy may not be all that ...

Not sure why I can't find this particular article ..Is it a preprint , or maybe something that has been posted out of context somewhere?

Where is it being " widely reported ?

Ahhh , Twitter , I see now , eh , really ? And Elon himself twisting about it .

You do know that Twitter is not a factual source of information ?

Goldengirl

@Don't Chute! you are generalizing about " these people ' ..

How do you know that ?

What I supported or didn't has no bearing on whether I refuse to believe unvouched claims or not .

Does that mean if you didn't support the 2km restriction , that you believe whatever anybody on the antirestrictions side of the debate without question ?

astrofool

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120326773#Comment_120326773

Sweden was not a good example from a financial perspective, in the EU, Ireland had the fastest growing economy during the pandemic years:

Coronavirus: Sweden GDP Falls 8.6% in Q2, More Than Nordic Neighbors (businessinsider.com)

normanoffside

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120327028#Comment_120327028

there is one month missing from the Eurostat data for Sweden (December 2022) the Study published in the newspaper in Sweden says this hence the excess death is as a % with projected Figures for December 2022.

So when the final data is published by Eurostat will you admit you were wrong if Sweden still has the lowest excess mortality?

normanoffside

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120327063#Comment_120327063

Same question for you:

So when the final data is published by Eurostat will you admit you were wrong if Sweden still has the lowest excess mortality?

odyssey06

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120327221#Comment_120327221

Nope.

Asked and answered.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120326714#Comment_120326714

walus

Mean excess mortality for Ireland for 33 months since and including April 2020 was 8%, in the same period of time for Sweden it was 4.7%.

As I said early on, it was always going to be a marathon, not a sprint.

Who did better in the covid olympics? Well, for me there is no debate.

Goldengirl

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120327233#Comment_120327233

That link you posted is just a tweet , and not verified statistics , btw.

Here is a reply from another lonely soul on that goddawful Musk wasteland ..https://twitter.com/itjohnstone/status/1632935760080015365/photo/1

It details my reasons for not trusting this because you can clearly see the damage done to Sweden in the first year and how they brought it back when they changed tack.

So do you want myself and anyone else to say " Sweden did better on Excess deaths " ( not shown really yet ) " so let's ignore the unnecessary Covid death toll they inflicted on their population ", or are we going to agree on a more humane and widely acceptable worldwide approach.

No country except UK went anywhere near approving of Tegnell's strategy ,( if you can call it that ) and there are statistics to show how well that works for a more densely populated and less self regulating country .

I am afraid that ship has sailed as regards how I think about Sweden and its approach in that first year .

I am glad that there numbers improved so much that second year , but that is largely down to restrictions, firstly and vaccination, secondly .

Oh, and thirdly, as I mentioned previously, they never let their health service get overrun by elderly sick people , in the first year so they continued health services which would have made a big difference to excess mortality overall

Most other countries had ICUs and wards full of sick people of an older demographic who took sometimes months to get better .

Would I change that, yes, in a heartbeat , more staff, services , isolation wards , but not the way Sweden did it . Not by refusing to treat or to even try to care for people who could not survive without hospitalisation .

I have said all I want to say on this . I think we are at an impasse .

astrofool

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120327324#Comment_120327324

The poster being replied to was espousing the monetary aspect, Sweden did worse here in most metrics compared to similar countries, significantly worse than Ireland.

If you want to put Sweden in a good light, you need to ignore 2020 and look at 2021 onwards when they had vaccines and lockdowns.

Denmark are, arguably, the model to follow for future pandemics. Denmark also used selective lockdowns (and a study revealed that high infection areas effectively went into lockdown before the Danish government put the mandate in place). Ireland howled when Kildare had a tighter lockdown than other areas, so not sure it would have worked here in practice.

walus

Mean excess mortality for Denmark for 33 months since and including April 2020 was 7.1%.

According to what I learnt at school such figure is significantly greater than Sweden’s 4.7%.

Denmark is one of those countries that has suffered from unexplained excess deaths for many months last year.

blanch152

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120323646#Comment_120323646

It depends on how you define the "best".

If you are happy to let all the old people die in 2020, then you will have the best performance in excess deaths in 2021 and 2022, because there aren't enough old people left to die, then you are the best.

Let the most vulnerable die in 2020, impose lockdowns and curfews in 2021 so the hospitals can look after those who are left is a strategy that worked and it can be called the best. It is not one I like, though.

Don't Chute!

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120329347#Comment_120329347

Lockdowns and curfews? Are we talking about Sweden here? If so, what were the lockdowns and curfews they implemented and how did they compare to others?

blanch152

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120329495#Comment_120329495

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Swedish_government_response_to_the_COVID-19_pandemic

"As COVID-19 progressed so did the measures taken. On 10 January 2021 an Act was passed that provided the Government the right to place rules on curbing public and private gatherings, and limit international and domestic travel.[73][74][71] The law was a temporary pandemic law and allowed for Sweden to place time limits on when businesses can open and close.[74] On 30 June 2021 a travel ban was introduced on anyone from the United States or EEA.[71][75] Exceptions were on travellers from Denmark, Finland, Iceland and Norway.[75] The ban was set to be lifted on 31 October 2021.[76]

Regulations were then created to take place on 1 July 2021.[74] Numbers of people who could be in one place such as a restaurant, or store was limited, as well as social gatherings being limited to no more than 8 people.[74][77] Remote work was recommended if possible, and on 17 March[when?] school was made fully online.[71"

Sweden came late to the party.

Don't Chute!

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120329523#Comment_120329523

As we all know at this stage the "lockdowns" Sweden brought in were absolutely NOTHING compared to other countries. People keep bringing up Sweden bringing in lockdowns as if they went full hysterical like everyone else but it's simply not true. As I've said before I suspect people's problems with Sweden are nothing to do with the saving of lives and all to do with the fact that Sweden just didn't tow the hysterical line like we all did. They just didn't like Sweden thinking for themselves.

dalyboy

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120329495#Comment_120329495

According to a friend of mine from Stockholm the only action he was aware of was the government told the citizens to be mindful of their contacts as there was a bad virus going around.

He witnessed no lockdown, masks , curtailment of kid’s education, closure of gyms , bars / restaurants, parks etc and no hysterical brow beating by easily manipulated neighbours or co-workers.

The very opposite of what we (and other countries) endured when we were plunged into a half-life existence for close to 2 years.

As many of us said at the time , their strategy was the logical action. It’s no surprise that the pro lockdown contributors will now blur the reality lines and revise the not too distant past to support their position.

As the old adage says , it’s all coming out in the wash now. Rejoice

WaterWipes

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120329554#Comment_120329554

As the Matt Hancock messages in the UK show, they were outraged at the Swedish covid response, and they were shown for the knee jerk reactions that they were.

I'd love to see the conversations between Tony, little Micheal & that forgettable health minister we had... I wonder were they smart enough not to use WhatsApp?

Goldengirl

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120329564#Comment_120329564

Well done for telling a funny story about one person you know who went around for the last few years with his eyes closed and ears shut and didn't read a newspaper !

Maybe he had no Swedish and preferred listening to something else ?

That's ok , but not very reliable to be telling people what he saw and heard then ...

What is coming out in the wash as I said a few pages ago is that somebody in Sweden has been trying to cover up their appalling and unethical decisions to abandon their elderly . That tweet being circulated by pro herd immunity publications is exactly that , a makey up figure by one statistician for a Swedish vested interest , ignoring the reasons for a reduction in excess deaths by that country from 2021 on .

Recording history is best left to others who don't make such a fvck up of their country's pandemic response that they manage to kill off a whole generation in one year .

https://twitter.com/bjornpiltz/status/1503285417579270147

Read what statistics actually show .. I don't think anybody would / should be rejoicing .🙄

walus

“Ahhh , Twitter , I see now , eh , really ?

You do know that Twitter is not a factual source of information ?”

#1209

Lol.

odyssey06

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120336922#Comment_120336922

Can you point out what's wrong with the Twitter analysis?

What has been presented so far is not the truth, they are facts cut in a particular way by a flawed statistical analysis, especially with regard to how 2020 have been included.

So what are the actual 'facts'?

Pay special attention to further analysis from this epidemiologist:

Tip for non-experts: if you see excess mortality metric that, by its own admission, is not adjusting based on age distribution or prior trend (if population was growing or declining), this metric is pure garbage.

https://twitter.com/galinash/status/1632014561250295808

Goldengirl

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120336922#Comment_120336922

Ahh but that was the Tweet based on unverifiable and suspect data .

The response is not based on reputable and verifiable data , from John Hopkins fir example.

As opposed to one statistician doing a nixer for a tabloid rag in Sweden .

Bit of a difference , don't you think ? Lol

walus

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120336979#Comment_120336979

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120337134#Comment_120337134

These are ‘nil pointers’.

Tweeter is not a reputable source of information, even if it confirms your beliefs.

odyssey06

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120337320#Comment_120337320

In this instance, it appears to be far more reputable source of analysis of garbage data, than a Swedish tabloid.

I'd wager the credentials of those on Twitter challenging and discrediting the data, trumps whatever hacks it employs.

So it appears you are completely unable to defend the data against basic questions.

There are also questions being raised about whether the data included all Swedish deaths, because the FOI data was pulled together from week on week data and there are thousands of deaths per year in Sweden recorded without a date of death.

normanoffside

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120337134#Comment_120337134

The tweet you posted is from a year ago.

Goldengirl

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120337414#Comment_120337414

Yep . Still valid criticism .

walus

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120337374#Comment_120337374

Yet another nil pointer.

As predicted, the narrative is changing and I don’t need to defend anything.

It is you who has been back pedalling desperately of late. Good luck.

odyssey06

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120337617#Comment_120337617

"Nil pointer"? I think that sums up your last few posts alright - unable to challenge the substance of the points made.

The objections and criticisms to the dodgy Swedish data stand.

facehugger99

The backpedaling and gas lighting on Sweden is hilarious.

We were told the justification for the severity of the restrictions was because they were to prevent widespread fatalities and bodies piling up on the streets.

Now we have a EU state that absolutely exposes that lie for what it was.

Like I said before, these posters will never admit they were wrong with respect to Covid, that the response to it was driven primarily by social media hysteria and was beyond disproportionate.

odyssey06

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120339959#Comment_120339959

England tried something like Sweden's strategy, and had to abandon it as their hospitals started to fill up. We got blowback from that failure via Cheltenham. So we have another European country that exposes the shortcomings of Sweden's strategy.

As for: "A lie?"

That's a very specific accusation and requires justification. It implies that governments and health authorities across Europe knew the restrictions weren't needed to save lives and protect hospital capacity, but brought them in any way, either for some nefarious purpose or "to be seen to do something".

You provide no evidence to support that claim just the usual slogan bingo of 'hysteria' and 'gaslighting'. And if we look at the timelines of restrictions being brought in here, and the interactions between the Irish government and NPHET, I see no evidence the response "was primarily driven by social media hysteria." If we look at China, it is the most immune regime in the world to media pressure full stop, it brought in lockdowns and restrictions. Yet somehow Sweden alone of advanced nations was immune to this 'social media hysteria' and saw through this 'lie', for reasons that are never explained.

Governments around the world reacted as they did to what they were seeing in their hospitals and to what their health authority experts were telling them.

Governments brought in restrictions because of a sincere belief they were needed to save lives and protect hospital capacity.

walus

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120339959#Comment_120339959

As long as sources of data were confirming that Sweden was paying a high price for not implementing lockdowns the data they were providing was accepted without a question. The moment the same sources provide the data that claims Sweden strategy has paid off in the long term (and will keep paying off going forward), the very same sources of data are being questioned, dismissed and attempts are made to discredit them.

Classic case of the last phase of this circus. Enjoy the show.

walus

Interesting interview with Isabel Oakeshott who leaked Matt Hancock’s messages as she claims herself in public interest.

https://youtu.be/UqMI9pIyi30

Thank God we have had a very solid governance and transparency in place for NPHET and the government, so that things like what she speaks about did not happen in Ireland.

Lol.

Goldengirl

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120341453#Comment_120341453

They didn't .

Sweden funnily enough did lie, change numbers and keep data and important facts from it's people in those first years of the pandemic .

Some people here don't read beyond " no lockdown " .

Read something other than tabloid headlines , particularly the section here on Lack of Transparency ..

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41599-022-01097-5

If what occurred in Sweden had happened in Ireland so many people here would be up in arms , and rightly so .

At least we got all the info more or less as it happened, warts n all .

They did average in Europe , not well , and very much less well than their neighbours who are similar in so many ways , density of population , culture , household size, health service and more . . All the factors that have an impact on disease spread .

Thus study details everything I have said ...

Mortality in Norway and Sweden during the Covid 19 Pandemic

Scand J Public Health. 2022 Feb; 50(1): 38–45.

Stop with the facile commentary about whether it's to do with lockdown or no.

It's just as much to do with ethics, morality and not putting image and individualism above a country's health in a pandemic emergency .

walus

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120343429#Comment_120343429

Great to see the Swedes taking a critical look in how their own country dealt with the pandemic and pointing out the flaws of their approach. If anything it shows that they have a healthy system that does not ostracise and shunt the dissenting voices. That is how it is done and no public enquiry is required. Credit to them once again. Mistakes were made and they are not afraid to bring them up to the surface and learn from them.

I’m waiting impatiently for the equivalent studies on the other great democracies such as UK, US, Australia and Ireland to come through. When we can expect them? Does anybody know?

I hope that these studies will also include the examples of how governments and their behavioural science advisors supported by the media have ratcheted the fear and played on people’s emotions to make sure they felt sufficiently threatened to comply with lockdown policies and how they used persuasive messages prepared by ‘nudge units’ to drive the uptake of vaccines.

This is the next thing that is coming up to the surface and mark my words here, there will be plenty of reasons for people around the world and in Ireland to be up in arms, and rightly so.

So for now let’s reserve the judgement on whose approach was just, ethical and moral.

Goldengirl

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120344433#Comment_120344433

Think you've missed more than one point there...

But will leave you to your very off kilter and fuzzy thoughts, have a good evening.

Emblematic

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120343429#Comment_120343429

A critique I would have of that paper is that all references to excess deaths seem to come from year 2020. However any worthwhile evaluation of excess deaths must cover a much longer period. This is because deaths that may have been due to the lockdowns and restrictions themselves are likely to be delayed possibly several years. It may still be too early to fully evaluate excess deaths due to the response to Covid.

PommieBast

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120355525#Comment_120355525

Certainly in the UK deaths from cancer and alcoholism hit an all-time high in 2021 and I suspect the Irish HSE figures (assuming they even bothered to collect them) will be at least as bad.

odyssey06

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120357410#Comment_120357410

The UK population is increasing and aging. How many all time highs have they hit in the decade 2010-2019?

Emblematic

I think a lot of (what we now know) were the wrong responses by governments make sense if, in their heads, they had an inaccurate understanding of this particular virus. I think possibly they may have thought of it more like Ebola or the SARS outbreak of 2003. These earlier outbreaks were not as contagious as Covid19 but very serious if you caught the disease. I think about 20 to 30 percent of those who caught SARS in the early 2000s required ventilation.

If you imagine for a minute that you have this wrong understanding of Covid 19 in your head, then things like strict lockdowns, shutting hospitals and the like, make sense. Because the version of the disease you have in your head is not as contagious, you are tempted to think that strict lockdowns may kill the virus. Even though people may die from lack of cancer treatment or what have you, in the long run the lockdowns are worth it because you have eradicated the virus. This mistaken justification is further reinforced if you imagine the disease to be highly lethal to those who catch it.

The problem is once a wrong idea is lodged in the head it is hard to shift it and so we continue with the measures.

odyssey06

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120358375#Comment_120358375

Your premise is doubtful on multiple levels.

Did health authorities have such an inaccurate view of the virus? For how long?

Why would so many major health authorities in different parts of the world continue with such a view even as they could start to form their own assessment from what they were seeing in their test centres and hospitals?

It was a numbers game, which is based on infectiousness multiplied by severity, on how many cases they were seeing requiring hospital attention.

Also the infectiousness of the virus factored into decisions about hospital services capacity with regard to infection control measures.

Emblematic

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120358429#Comment_120358429

@odyssey06 wrote:

"Did health authorities have such an inaccurate view of the virus? For how long?"

To be honest I don't know. We are all trying to figure out what happened. I am just putting that forward for discussion.

"Why would so many major health authorities in different parts of the world continue with such a view even as they could start to form their own assessment from what they were seeing in their test centres and hospitals?"

Again I am not sure. I think there may have been a "virtue signalling" going on. Remember the "worlds strictest lockdown" in India?

https://www.hindustantimes.com/india-news/how-the-world-s-strictest-lockdown-affected-india/story-hi96OxJcyZe53JHb5f6gwN.html

In my view, this only makes sense if you have an eradicationalist mindset or you are trying to pander to international opinion.

Goldengirl

Definitely more drinking at home alright but whether to excessas you say in the UK ,jury is out .

"Data released by the Revenue on alcohol excise receipts and volumes shows that recorded consumption in Ireland for beer, cider and spirits decreased significantly in 2020 and 2021 compared to 2019 but are expected to rise again in 2022. Notably, wine consumption significantly rose in 2020 but reduced in 2021 below the 2019 figures. Wine consumption appears to be rising again in 2022 compared to 2021. (Revenue data of Q4, 2022, not available as of February 10th 2023)."

https://www.drinkaware.ie/research/alcohol-consumption-in-ireland/

However consumption of alcohol has been known to be above that of our European counterparts . In Europe the average per capita is 5.8 litres , whereas pre Covid Ireland's alcohol consumed oer capita over 15 years of age was over 10 litres .

Alcohol consumed did reduce in Ireland over the pandemic years .

"The OECD Report Health at a Glance: Europe 2022: State of Health in the EU (European Union) Cycle provides further international comparisons on alcohol consumption. In Ireland, the overall alcohol consumption among adults in 2021 was 9.5 litres of alcohol. This is a decrease from 10.1 litres in 2020, 10.8 litres in 2019 and 11 litres in 2018. The OECD average recorded per capita consumption in Europe is 9.8 litres per adult."

There is a very strong link between alcohol and cancer that has been known and studied for years .

https://www.drugsandalcohol.ie/37099/

It it remains to be seen if a reduction in alcohol consumed during Covid years from the high level in previous years in this country helps mitigate mortality both from Alcohol related illness like liver cirrhosis and oesophageal cancer , and other cancers that have been strongly linked to consumption.

Interestingly while drinking habits shifted from pubs and clubs to home in countries during the pandemic , Irish people did 62% more drinking at home than outside the home BEFORE the pandemic years so maybe were less affected by that shift than we would think .

The reduction in screening during pandemic years will most likely lead to a higher pick up rate immediately since screening has resumed , but whether that increase will be due to an accumulation or not will take a few years of collecting data to become clear.

Some excellent links in the drinkaware review to data worldwide if anyone interested .

Goldengirl

Also this was " on people's minds " ( excuse the pun !) a lot through the past few years . It looks like it didn't pan out quite as bad as was expected .

https://www.bbc.com/news/health-64890952

I wonder if we fared better or worse ?

https://publichealth.ie/blog-impact-of-covid-19-on-the-mental-health-of-people-living-on-the-island-of-ireland/

Goldengirl

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120355525#Comment_120355525

Absolutely . It is very vague to use excess deaths when comparing restrictions as there are so many different reasons why any particular country may have more or less in a prior year , as seen with the WHO data .

The only thing that we can say for definite are the amount of deaths from Covid , which is what that study refers to, between Norway and Sweden in 2020 . And that is why I quoted it .

odyssey06

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120358454#Comment_120358454

There may have been an 'eradicationlist' \ zero covid mindset in the initial phase, or perhaps a hope that covid could be 'crushed', but outside of China, Australia, NZ I'm not aware of any evidence of this to explain restrictions beyond wave one.

So you're left with 'virtue signalling' as a very flimsy premise to explain the conduct of the US CDC, France, Germany, Canada, Ireland, England beyond wave one.

Versus the declared reasons as restrictions being the mechanism used to try to bring down cases to a level manageable by the countries health services, with the restrictions being varied in response to the situation on the ground and trajectory of cases. Which therefore seems the plausible explanation to me.

Emblematic

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120358553#Comment_120358553

I don't think it is vague to use excess deaths. They are probably the better measure than say covid-deaths alone. The problem comes if you limit the timescale to the time of the outbreak itself since what we are trying to weigh up is not only the cost of Covid itself but the cost of lockdowns and restrictions used against it. As I said, the cost of these may take years after the initial outbreak to assess.