2022 NFL season - Regular Season Thread - Picks etc.

eagle eye

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120151350#Comment_120151350

Purdy had a bad game. He'd have lost against a QB like Goff or Cousins because that's how bad Prescott was.

I've been raving about Purdy since he started with the niners and I liked him in college and it's a great story. I never thought he'd make it at this level but he has looked great. But against the Cowboys he didn't look good at all, running backwards towards your own end zone is crazy and he did that a few times. He had some nice throws, nearly all of them to Kittle, but overall he was very poor.

On the two Prescott interceptions he threw awful balls and it was all on him, it wasn't that he was seeing something different. Even if things looked different a top class QB wouldn't throw the ball if things change, he'd throw it away or take the sack rather than make a stupid throw. Both ints were horrendous throws.

At no point have I said that the 49ers D was bad. They weren't getting there like they've done in most games this season though. They still played well just not up to the high level we are used to seeing from them. That is why the Cowboys had a chance to win. A decent QB, not a great one, would have gotten the Cowboys across the line in my opinion.

Anyway I didn't like how Purdy reacted to being pressured and I see that happening again against the Eagles. Maybe he'll learn from last weekend and it'd be great if he has.

The Eagles have the best roster in football at the minute, their offense is just so good with two elite receivers, an elite TE a great QB and three running backs who just mesh together so well. Their OL is top notch too. The most interesting battle is how the niners D does against that OL.

I think the Eagles win on both sides of the ball and win it by something like 9 points.

Foxtrol

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120153484#Comment_120153484

You keep claiming that Dak was under no pressure for either int - from angle from behind it is clear for the first that he only got it off a split second before he would have been sacked, likely stripped of the ball.

https://twitter.com/splash_cousin/status/1617966057599438848?s=20&t=0NAWrO6lx54yY9gXbYCH9g

You're really stretching claiming Purdy had a bad game. The chaotic scrambling has been a part of ever game he has played - I'm not a fan of him doing it but if you were 'raving' about his performances prior then you must not have watched his full games.

It is laughable for you to cherry picking stats and then try to prove your point by comparing a divisional round playoff game against one of the top defenses in the league to those of other QBs season long. If you're concerned about Purdy's completion % at 65 against the Cowboys defense, you must be terrified about Hurts' last three games being 66 against the weak Giants defense, then 57 against the Giants backups, and 59 against the Bears. QBs have won Super Bowls with lower competition % than what Purdy or Hurts had at the weekend.

Purdy did what he was asked during this game and the team won. He protected the ball, unlike Jimmy did historically, and then took shots down the field when needed. They relied on their defense and their run game, with multiple 49ers saying their game plan was to run the ball even more than they did but it was one of those days where things didn't work that way until late in the game, both down to the Cowboys playing well and 49ers mistakes. That context absolutely matters.

Eagles and 49ers are probably one and two for the most stacked roster in the NFL currently. The big potential difference likely to be QB, understandable with the 49ers on their 3rd string. Strange group of positions for you to call out there though - the 49ers also have two elite WRs, a TE that is better than the Eagles have, and a RB room that is better than the Eagles' also. Agree on the OL though, that could be another differentiator. When you go position by position it is mostly shaded one way or the other.

eagle eye

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120153847#Comment_120153847

I don't know what you see in the video but I looked at Dak and he's looking downfield all the time. He's not pressured and he throws an awful ball. It might be close but he never sees it coming so is unaffected by it. Tell me what you see from Dak?

How do you come to the conclusion that I cherry picked stats? I went through all of them. QB rating, completion percentage and yards per attempt. What did I not talk about? Referencing regular season stats was because of the falloff from the incredible level Brock showed during the regular season. He was comparable with the elite QB's up until the weekend.

He may get back there this weekend and it'd be a great story if he does but I'm not confident he will after what I seen against the Cowboys. He's still a rookie though and has plenty of time to improve.

I've always liked George Kittle and was talking about him when he was coming out of college and nobody rating him. I don't agree that he's on a different level to Goedart though. This season George had 60 receptions for 765 yards, Goedart had 55 for 702. Both on 12.8 yards per reception. Big difference is TD receptions where it's 11 to 3 in favour of George. Seven of them have come since Brock came in, he's been Brock's favourite target.

On the rushing situation, McCaffrey is awesome and Mitchell is really good, I'd say individually that both are better than any of the Eagles running backs but they have Hurts, Sanders, Scott and Gainwell. They just sync together with different skillets and it's a very powerful run game.

You had 2360 rushing yards and 20 TDs. They had 2509 yards and 32 TDs on the ground. It's a very underrated running game.

You say that Purdy did what was asked of him and I don't agree with that. He ran towards his own end zone too many times. In fairness you agreed about him doing that and said you are unhappy with it. Too many times he got out of the pocket with no plan.

I hope my prediction about Brock struggling against the Eagles is wrong. If I'm right I hope it doesn't become a big thing where people say he'sl been found out and all that crap. He's a rookie, Mr Irrelevant, and I want so much to see it all work out for him.

We'll find out the weekend how it goes. For many years the niners were my second favourite team but then things got really bad for them and I wasn't really passing much heed on how things were going for them but I like what I'm seeing there now from John Lynch and Kyle Shanahan to Deebo and McCaffrey and now Brock. There's a lot to like but I don't see them beating the Eagles. Hopefully you have all the pieces still in place next year and hopefully with a full year behind him Brock can become the QB you've yearned for over a long number of years.

Christy42

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120153847#Comment_120153847

Dak could have backed away from that pressure pretty easily. I can't blame that for the int. The route from Gallup was horrendous but it wasn't a win in any case and shouldn't have been thrown.

adrian522

Was a bad decision for sure, he was under pressure and just threw where he assumed the WR would be without checking if he was open. But from a defensive point of view it was also a great play from Lenoir to recognise and run the route to come away with the INT.

People trying to say that INT had nothing to do with the defense can't really be serious.

eagle eye

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120154660#Comment_120154660

Lenoir made a great play but only because the throw was horrendous.

adrian522

Picks for divisional round:

Bengals @ Chiefs

I'm always wary of over reacting to the previous week, particularly in the playoffs but Cincinnati have looked like the best team in the AFC for a while now. They have beaten the Chiefs now 3 times in 2022 Calendar year including last years divisional round.

Late Last year they frustrated the Chiefs offense by only rushing 3 and dropping 8 into coverage forcing Mahomes to take short throws or to run the ball. Instead KC forced the ball to Tyreek Hill and ended up losing both games.

This year Hill is gone and the chiefs are still the best offense in the league. Bengals have offensive line issues but Burrow gets the ball out quicker than anyone else in the league.

Chris Jones may be the most important player in this matchup, if he can get pressure up the middle that can wreck the game, if not I find it hard to see the KC defense slwoing down Cinci.

With Mahmoes obviously injured and the Bengals defense going so well I imagine they won't allow Kelce be the one to beat them and they'l force Mahomes to go elsewhere. If you take away the Mahomes scrambles I'm not sure you get enough production from the other receivers/running backs to win this one. I like Cincinnati by 4 in this one.

49ers @ Eagles

This one will be won and lost in the trenches. Quite obviously the 2 best teams in the NFC. Philly has the leagues best pass defense, a super deep defensive line and the best O-line in football. They have a weakness in terms of their run defense(#22 DVOA) but that is hard to exploit as you need to have enough success passing to keep them from dropping a safety to help in the run game.

In AJ Brown and Devonta Smith they have a top WR duo and they clearly have a great coaching setup both from a game planning perspective but also in game decision making.

On the other side SF has the best defense in the league with All Pros at each level and no glaring weakness. Their defensive line isn't as strong as it was in 2019 but it is still plenty good including the DPOY. The 49ers usually do well taking away the short/intermediate passes over the middle of the field, potentially struggle against deeper passes. They also do very well against the run.

Offensively the 49ers have an array of weapons that they can lineup anywhere, rb, slot receiver, outside receiver. This makes it very difficult on the defense. If Philadelphia can shut down the 49ers run game then they win the game. If SF can get enough production from the passing game to force the eagles to keep both safeties deep then I think they be able to run the ball and win.

Ultimately it comes down to how the various defensive line v offensive line battles go. I think it will be low scoring and could really go either way. I'll lean eagles given their D-line depth, superior offensive line and home field advantage.

Eagles by 3.

Foxtrol

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120154614#Comment_120154614

Fully agree it shouldn't have been thrown but that isn't the argument that was made:

wasn't being pressured on either throw

Good to see that we're also in agreement that there was pressure.

Foxtrol

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120154063#Comment_120154063

QB play falling off when the player is playing the best defense in his career in a playoff game isn't a shock and certainly doesn't mean he had a bad game. I don't remember you calling out Brady for having a bad game against the Rams in the Super Bowl victory when he had worse stats across every measure you're judging Purdy on, some significantly worse.

Eagles are a step up on the Cowboys, presuming they also perform close to the top end like the Cowboys did, and it is likely that Purdy will struggle in that situation. This in no way changes the fact he didn't have a bad game against the Cowboys, especially given the fact that one of your main complaints is something he has done in basically every game he has played in.

On TEs, Goedert isn't in the same world as Kittle as a blocker which is part of the role of a tight end.

I don't see the Eagles rushing game as underrated at all - it is what every analyst is talking about, especially regarding Hurts and his legs. Of those numbers for the Eagles, 1/3 is made up from Hurts running and 40% of those rushing TDs. 49ers got their numbers with basically nothing from their QB after week 1. I'd argue if you took away the risk of Hurts running the Eagles RBs wouldn't be close to as productive, evidenced by the low numbers when he was injured - though a small sample.

eagle eye

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120156782#Comment_120156782

When your team wins a Superbowl you celebrate not look at stats but the right man got the MVP.

We'll just have to disagree on Purdy's performance, his QB rating suggests he played poorly, the completion percentage combined with yards per attempt also suggest that.

Obviously you haven't seen much of Goedart this year or last. His blocking both on run and pass plays has been very good. His pass blocking improved again this season. He's always been a good run blocker. I don't know if anybody grades tight ends in all three phases but if you put them all together I'd expect both Goedart and Kittle to be in the top five at worst.

I included Hurts as part of that running game, and he's a huge part of it. Sanders had close to 1300 yards in the regular season, fifth best in the league. He had 11 rushing TDs too. I certainly wouldn't disagree that the Eagles running game would likely be a lot worse without Hurts but he's there and a big part of it and I don't understand why you are even bringing that up when we are talking about their run game as a whole. Gainwell and Scott add so much in smaller roles. I don't get your issue with what I said about them. I said they are underrated. Scott and Gainwell just fit in so well with what's going on, in smaller roles. It's not a superstar lineup but it works as good as any other team in the league.

What happened when Hurts was out can't really be judged for or against anybody, you've got a whole different setup without a running QB so every part of the offense is going to have issues as they are doing different things.

Foxtrol

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120157680#Comment_120157680

So on reflection now you're accepting Brady had a 'bad' game against the Rams in the Super Bowl then???

How about Brady over his career in playoffs? Have you come to the opinion that playoff Brady is a 'bad' player?

Playoff Brady's average yards is less than Purdy had last week, coming in at 7.0, he has a lower completion rate at 62%, and his average rating only very slightly better at 89.8. Cherry on top is that Purdy didn't throw any picks and Brady averages nearly 1 a game.

I'm in no way saying Purdy is better than Brady or any nonsense like that. I'm only showing you that playoff football is hard for everyone, even GOATs. It is stupid to try to compare them to regular season football and it is just silly to claim that a performance from a rookie QB is 'bad' based on stats against a very good defense which in reality are better than the average performance of the most successful QB in history and to most 'the GOAT'.

eagle eye

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120158734#Comment_120158734

You have a tiny sample size for Purdy. I've no more to say about that.

It doesn't surprise me that you'd take any opportunity to attack Brady though. You were doing that for years. He's no longer a Patriot so I'm not concerned by it.

When he retires he'll be a Patriot again.

Carcharodon

In a suicide league and down to last 12 people with a pick each, $45,0000 on the line, tried to do a split this week but 2 people didn’t want to split it. So got to pick the winner of both games this weekend. We’ve been picking 2 teams for a few weeks now cos so many people made it this far.

thinking eagles and Cinci, torn cos Iam a big niners fan

Realt Dearg Sec

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120158948#Comment_120158948

45 grand though...the team won't mind if you follow your head

Carcharodon

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120159063#Comment_120159063

Still torn on who I think will actually win, I think Eagles have the edge but don’t sleep on the niners, it’s just the kind of game they can grind out

kc and Cinci is a wild one, a lot of variables

collybyrne

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120158948#Comment_120158948

Wow 45k!! Best of luck man!!

adrian522

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120158948#Comment_120158948

I think that's the correct call, see my reasoning up above. The 49ers game is a 60/40 sort of game, with advantages on both D-Line and O-Line and home field advantage and Shanahans tendency towards conversative decisions on 4th down and before half the smart play is on Philly.

Foxtrol

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120158783#Comment_120158783

What I did in comparing an average of Brady stats to Purdy's single game is exactly what you did earlier when you compared his stats in this single game to the average of other players across a season. Good for the goose is good for the gander.

Here you are doing it:

Purdy's rating was 87.4 which on regular season numbers would put him just behind Heinicke, Mariota and Brissett.

There were four QB's that had a completion percentage in the 65's over the course of the regular season. They were Cousins, Tanehill, Mac Jones and Goff.

The only difference is that my comparison is far, far fairer due to only taking account of playoff football, which Purdy's game against the Cowboys was.

Your inconsistency has clearly broken your brain. Where did I attack Brady? I never said the stats Brady averaged in the playoffs would be deemed 'bad' or showed that he 'wasn't up for it' - that was all you. I'm actually the one defending Brady here and you're the one attacking his legacy unless you admit the stats you chose out of context are close to worthless in assessing QB performance, which is pretty obvious at this point.

Foxtrol

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120159478#Comment_120159478

If I had that sort of money on it I'd go the same. I have it more 55/45 to the Eagles, as I agree they shade a number of areas.

Feel there is a lot more variance out there though given my points earlier in the thread regarding the quality of competition this Eagles team has faced over the last two seasons and a lot of the areas for the Eagles aren't really that much of a step up over the Cowboys the way they played last week.

Most likely situation is that it comes down to the performance of Purdy and whether he has an actual bad game or performs at least as well as last week. If the 49ers win the turnover battle I think they win.

On the 4th down situations, it wouldn't surprise me if that becomes a huge talking point afterwards in either direction. Over a season being more aggressive is 100% the way to go (also doing so against a team where you're clearly out matched) but in playoff scenarios one or two of those don't go your way and you lose a game that you should have won.

adrian522

I think the burning time before half time rather than trying to score is an issue too. Happened last week and also in the superbowl. Hopefully he just plays to win this week.

eagle eye

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120160842#Comment_120160842

How many postseason starts has Purdy? How many divisional round games has Brady had? How about if you want to do that right you take all Brady's divisional round games and put them up against Purdy's one game? You picked one Superbowl game out of all of Brady's postseason starts.

Can we pick a different game of Brady's to compare it to like the divisional round against the Chargers in the 2018 season or against Tennessee the year before or all the way back to the 16-0 2007 season and that divisional game against the Jags?

I showed season averages and compared them to how Purdy played in his divisional round matchup. I was providing an idea of the level that Purdy played at. I also said that Purdy played at an elite level before then. The big question mark remains how he handles a top level pass rush. He didn't do well against the Cowboys and it remains to be seen how he does against the Eagles.

You are lowering your expectations before the game and then finding his performance to be near enough what you expected. I'm looking at it as a poor performance plain and simple. You shouldn't be lowering your expectations to start with. Plenty of QBs played at an elit level against the Cowboys during the season.

We had eight teams play last weekend. The most outstanding performance for me was Burrow then Mahomes and Hurts who both played well.

After that we had five poor performances. Purdy was the best of them but he was poor. He was better than Allen, Lawrence, Jones and Prescott.

I'm not here to dish the guy and say he's the worst ever or anything of the sort. I'm simply saying he didn't handle the pass rush well and he has to face it again this weekend. We'll find out then if it was just a once off or if he has work to do on his game. Either way I think he's going to be around for a long time.

I'm just not confident he's ready yet for a serious pass rush is all I'm saying.

Just on Brady again, he used to have an absolute stinker of a game every couple of years. When it was going on I just accepted it because it happens to every QB. I laughed about it. If anybody said he played badly I agreed.

Foxtrol

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120161322#Comment_120161322

I initially picked one Super Bowl game but then when you pushed back I expanded and looked at all of Brady's historic playoff numbers.

We aren't talking about one 'stinker', the earlier analysis is a comparison against the average of playoff games during all of Brady's career:

Playoff Brady's average yards is less than Purdy had last week, coming in at 7.0, he has a lower completion rate at 62%, and his average rating only very slightly better at 89.8. Cherry on top is that Purdy didn't throw any picks and Brady averages nearly 1 a game.

It is simple, if you believe Purdy's stats prove he was 'bad' then the same stats say Brady was on average a 'bad' player in the playoffs. That is your claim, not mine.

Foxtrol

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120161222#Comment_120161222

I was frustrated at the time but having heard his explanation I was ok with it.

He wanted to avoid a risk of Cowboys getting the ball back and scoring and then having the opportunity to score again when they received the ball. He is generally more aggressive when they have the ball before half time and then receive the ball after - he calls is 'lapping' the opposition and some of the team have also spoken about it.

Last weekend was stressful but they felt in decent control and didn't need to take risk, be it being aggressive before halftime or Purdy dropping back more or trying more imperceptible passes.

This week will likely be different unless they somehow dominate but I'd be fully in favour of making more aggressive against a Chiefs or Bengals.

Kev8360

Championship Round

Going for the home team in both games but they are so close I wouldn't be shocked to see both go to last drive/OT.

49ers @ Eagles

Bengals @ Chiefs

eagle eye

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120161594#Comment_120161594

Yeah but you are including games before 2007 when the whole game changed and it became a passing league with a huge emphasis on officials calling PI's on defenders.

John Elway is considered one of the best to ever play the game and he retired with an all game 56% completion rate.

Joe Montana, considered the best before Brady, retired with an all game 62% completion rate and an all game QB rating of 92.

PI calls have become more prevalent as time has gone on and as a result completion percentages and QB ratings have gotten higher and higher. A 65% completion percentage today is equivalent to a 58% rate at the end of the 90's. A QB rating of 100 is similar to 92 back then.

There's an awful lot to be considered because of changes in the game. The lowest QB rating to lead the league at the end of the season in the last ten years was 104, in the ten years before that it was 100, in the ten before that it was 97 and in the ten before that it was 92.

You go and show me anywhere I've ever compared player stats from 20 years ago with a player today.

I'd guess Brady was around the sixty mark prior to 2007, no idea about his QB rating back then. I know it was 117 in 2007. I'd guess his last ten years are a lot higher in percentages to the previous ten and that's down to the changes in the laws of the game.

Foxtrol

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120161808#Comment_120161808

Even cherry picking the years of his career doesn't help your argument.

Taking Brady's playoff performances from 2007 onwards he is still below Purdy's Cowboys performance in both Comp % and Average Yards, 63.6% and 7.2 respectively, and only slightly ahead on Rating at 91.6.

I'll even go further and look at only the last 10 years of Brady's playoff performances and it is the same story again, he is below Purdy's Cowboys performance in both Comp % and Average Yards, 62.6% and 7.3, and still only slightly ahead on Rating at 92.6.

Either 1) Purdy wasn't as bad as you claimed, 2) you need to completely reassess the stats you use to base your opinion on, 3) you believe average playoff Brady was 'bad'.

Ohmeha

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120161638#Comment_120161638

I wouldn't feel confident betting a euro on the outcome of either of these games, probably the four most closely matched teams in conference championships games in a good few years. I suspect many will go for Eagles and Bengals wins based on their more impressive wins in the divisional round and question marks over Mahomes' ankle and whether Purdy will crack

collybyrne

182-100 coming in:

49ers @ Eagles

Bengals @ Chiefs

I feel the same as everyone else here that these games are just too close to call and could easily go either way. I'm using the Mahomes potential injury to sway my decision to the road team on that one and sticking with the Eagles at home.

eagle eye

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120161923#Comment_120161923

Can you send me a link to where you got those stats?

Chiefs and Eagles in two blowouts.

Eagles to go all the way.