New doubt cast on Ireland's hottest temperature

Danno

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119374393#Comment_119374393

I'd seriously doubt the station was in the rose garden, the ground there is stepped/terraformed to the last detail with very wide paved areas, etc...

https://goo.gl/maps/WviczyPNWpLMiGMw5

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119360563#Comment_119360563

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119361720#Comment_119361720

Interesting about the UK high temp, the location isnt too far from the sea. The east of England can get quite low rainfall in normal years. Lower than some middle eastern places in fact. So I guess very dry conditions are within normal variation. East Anglia is the driest part but I suppose Lincolnshire could get dry too as its not too far and still easterly.

Its been a dry spring....https://www.itv.com/news/calendar/2021-04-26/dry-weather-causing-problems-for-farmers-in-yorkshire-and-lincolnshire

Think of the sun/weather/climate as energy. If its drier the energy can be put into temperature. If it is more humid the energy must expend energy heating the humid air too. This is why wet equatorial climates dont see the same extremely high temperatures as dry deserts.

As it heated up to 40.3c Coningsby humidity hit 13% (as one goes up the other goes down). The cold north sea may lead to locally lower humidity. Other factors - 9/10m altitude in the area. Also deserts get longer daylight hours than within the tropics.

This leads me to Ireland. I wonder if the optimal timing for max highs is late june to mid July. Is it possible that as the seas warm up the humidity might get high enough to 'put a lid on max temps'. Or would a hot dry airmass moving across from Europe just dominate it?

A high in Kilkenny with compounding factors pointed out on this thread such as local hills, dry run of weather, longer sunlight as per time of year etc is no big deal. Suspicious that it keeps coming up.

Side note - during heat waves people die, if climate change is responsible for more frequent heat waves and a portion of the temperature increase then the urban heat island effect must be responsible for the vast bulk of the casualties as it has an immediate impact on temperatures orders of magnitude higher than Co2.

Gaoth Laidir

A high in Kilkenny with compounding factors pointed out on this thread such as local hills, dry run of weather, longer sunlight as per time of year etc is no big deal. Suspicious that it keeps coming up.

Not sure why it would be suspicious. A perfect timing of events, such as an abnormally severe drought on soil like that and the cumulative effect of several clear days at a time of maximum insolation is not something that happens regularly and probably has never happened since. I think the soil is the major differentiator between Kilkenny and other locations when it comes to such dry ground conditions.

Akrasia

From a climate change POV it doesn't really matter when the absolute maximum temperature for an arbitrary geographical region was set. What matters is the trends over decades and the frequency and intensity of events

The point of climate change is not that weather extremes never happened in the past, it's that the bell curve is shifting so previously extreme weather is becoming normal while opening the door for new extremes that would have been impossible in a naturally cooler world

anglesorangles

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119360405#Comment_119360405

Hahahahah all the shite people were goin on about on Monday , how dare thee question a 150 yr old record.

Akrasia

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119363871#Comment_119363871

The urban heat island effect is real but vastly overstated by skeptics to discount climate change.

The fact that our cities do heat up faster in heatwaves is a greater reason for why we should take more action on preventing and mitigating climate change.

The 40c recorded in the UK was in controlled conditions. To someone walking around London they could have experienced temperatures in excess of 40c in direct sunshine and much higher night time temperatures than the official record

Oneiric 3

Looking at the 850hPa wind flow on that record breaking day, it is clear that the air mass would have been very dry, and very likely dried out further as it travelled over the Wicklow Mts to create a 'fohn' effect over the S Midlands. Add into that that the sun is at its highest in the sky at that time of year also:

It's not unlike what happened at the end of June 2018: dry easterly air and high sun. However, what is not normal by any stretch is the temperatures we have seen earlier in week (thankfully, did not last too long) and the far, far more grueling wave we had this time last year where we saw temps reaching into the 30s under very humid, moist conditions, and this in two consecutive years running, which I am pretty sure is unprecedented in the temperature records of this isle.

Gaoth Laidir

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119376724#Comment_119376724

But if we were to get a drought now of the scale of those of 1887, 1921, 1942, etc., no doubt the Attribution groups would be all over it in an instant claiming that this is evidence of manmade climate change because the probability of such an occurrence has gone from X to Y, where X<<Y. We haven't seen the like of these droughts, yet we're being told to expect them. Or maybe lack of them is also evidence of AGW?

Much was made of the recent localised area of very positive T850 warm anomaly over western Europe, caused by the persistence of that cut-off low west of Portugal, however no mention was made of the vastly greater area of negative anomaly all over the NE Atlantic, norther, eastern Europe and northern Africa. Talk is made of cherrypicking by skeptics, yet one relatively small but concentrated area of very high anomaly with a definite synoptic and not CO2-induced cause is focused on. We don't have such maps for the 19th century, but I bet similar would have occurred from time to time.

https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1549488698575622144

Danno

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119376939#Comment_119376939

 which I am pretty sure is unprecedented in the temperature records of this isle.

@sryanbruen had a table up recently which showed 10 days of 30c+ in year 1995.

EDIT - found it:

https://twitter.com/SryanWx/status/1548261068585066496

Oneiric 3

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119378569#Comment_119378569

I should have been clearer. I was talking about intense heat (>=30c) combined with high humidity occurring in two consecutive years. But going from that data alone. A crude reading suggests that, on average, 30c + days occurred about once every 12 to 14 years up to about 1960, to as little as just 3 years since 2013 up to the present year. What was once very much the exception, is clearly becoming more the rule.

Danno

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119378748#Comment_119378748

But you'd have to factor in better station coverage in these modern times.

For example, Bunclody last Tuesday recorded over 30c as the remnants of the heat hung on in Wexford/Carlow...

https://twitter.com/SryanWx/status/1549413439755403264

Akrasia

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119378569#Comment_119378569

Can you not see the trend?

Oneiric 3

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119378889#Comment_119378889

A fair point Danno.

Though appreciating as we all do at just how methodical SyranB is when doing his research, it is very likely I think that he would have used a consistent dataset when doing up those stats (probably from the synoptic network)

Something isn't quite right about the pattern that set in during the second half of July last year. Abnormally high pressure readings in the NE Atlantic for the time of year, which repeated itself down to a tee this month, not to mention the near persistence of that same Azores high that parked itself near or directly over us during the bulk of last autumn and winter. What is causing all of this, I don't know and I'll leave it to others to debate all of that, but it is well outside of the norm, particularly regarding it's shear persistence.

Danzy

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119362701#Comment_119362701

Outside of very precise requirements not related to weather the thermometers from then still meet standards today for weather recording.

sryanbruen

Still awaiting a response from Met with regards to my request of a photograph or at least a concept of the location of the Kilkenny Castle station in 1887.

As for my 30C days dataset in the tweet given above, I can confirm at least one synoptic station achieved the 30C figure in all the years named. However, the count of the number of days is susceptible to the number of stations available at that given time and of what data is public at the moment so it's not homogenous. It is very much a work in progress like all my projects as more data becomes available and thinking of ways to present it for the interest of people.

The thermometers met standards then as they do now. It was how those thermometers were used. For example, the Glaisher Stand was widely used for recording in the 19th century until the Stevenson Screen became mainstream. GS measurements were found to be at least a degree warmer than using the same thermometer in a Stevenson. If a GS was not well maintained or used properly, the sun would shine directly on the thermometer which goes against standards obviously. At a certain point, all prior GS readings were disregarded from official climatological records for this reason. Same with various other recording methods that may have been used such as indoors in a window recess and a large closed shed. The Stevenson tended to be introduced in the late 1870s and early 1880s. So readings like Markree's 3 days of 32.9C or greater in June 1851 or Phoenix Park's 33.4C in July 1876 are disregarded due to potential bias from observation recording methods at the time. Phoenix Park has data since 1831 but its current official temperature records began in 1881 after the Stevenson was installed in December 1879 and was marked in good order in October 1880.

If you would like to know about the recording methods at various Met stations in the 19th century, their metadata can be found here. Shame Kilkenny Castle is not there 😏

Danno

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119409193#Comment_119409193

Good work @sryanbruen - it's a pity in a way that the GS readings are disregarded, I'd be of the opinion that the cold records from that era are of very good use - I believe there is a -24c from Armagh Obs in that record.

Gaoth Laidir

On the one hand they are (rightly) rejecting old readings because they were not in Stevenson Screens, but on the other hand they're accepting readings from all sorts of stations nowadays, even AWS with holes in the shield! Here's the 48.8 °C one from Sicily last year with a cut-out slot in the shield, which is just a few cm right above a hot metal bar.

Danno

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119410413#Comment_119410413

Jesus H Christ.

If that is the standard we're accepting for recordings then Lidl's finest weather station recording 37c in West Clare is our own new national record.

Meanwhile the biased media will have alot of Europe convinced that 48.8c was recorded via alarmist headlines - but when the state of the station is revealed, it might garner a tiny corner buried in the middle of the paper.

Gaoth Laidir

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119410633#Comment_119410633

Sshhh, you're not allowed bring up stuff like that here.

John.Icy

Update here; I had also reached out to Met Eireann over this supposed picture. And I got a response.

Seems like there is no such picture unfortunately. Or at least not to the knowledge of the person/division who got back to me. But the fact there is talk of a photo still raises the possibility that there is one out there but it's not fully known who has it sitting on file?

The mystery possibly dies at this stage. I'm sure there's maps somewhere buried in some physical archive or photos. In some of those old Met Office reports there is schematics of station layouts/sites. I'm sure the same was done for Kilkenny. Maybe something for TY students in Kilkenny to go trawl through archives in Kilkenny library or something.

Danno

https://www.thejournal.ie/hottest-temperature-ireland-study-5960834-Jan2023/

Back on TheJournal.ie today. Notice the article has dropped Evelyn Cusack's comments from last July when this was first raised in the "media".

Danno

From:

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/ireland-could-see-35c-weather-this-summer-as-scientists-warn-of-more-extremes-in-2023-tzc8hqjsw

Peter Thorne, a climate scientist and director of the Irish Climate Analysis and Research Unit at Maynooth University, believes that Ireland could break its record and hit a temperature of 35C in 2023. On July 18 last summer, 33C was recorded at Phoenix Park, a fraction below Ireland’s highest ever temperature of 33.3C, which was recorded at Kilkenny Castle in 1887.

“We will exceed 33C, the only question is when,” Thorne said. “That record probably will not stand very long and it will continue to be beaten. Ireland at the moment, given the right meteorological set-up, could go somewhere north of 35C. If you had a very long dry spell, a large build-up of heat and an export of very dry warm air from the continent, I could see somewhere in central Ireland exceeding 35C physically.”

No doubt a bold prediction - 35C this coming Summer!

Alternative Link: https://archive.is/20230101003851/https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/ireland-could-see-35c-weather-this-summer-as-scientists-warn-of-more-extremes-in-2023-tzc8hqjsw

Thelonious Monk

well he said we "could" break 35c. It'll be broken in the coming years anyway. UK and Ireland recorded 2022 as warmest year on record and some ridiculous summer temperatures in Europe in recent weeks. It's amazing the hoops people will jump through because they don't want to admit they're wrong and that man made climate change is real. I really hope it isn't and the scary future ahead of us doesn't transpire.

Hooter23

The 1887 record was recorded "near a castle that heats up or expel heat" so it means its wrong... nowadays we have miles upon miles of tarmac and concrete in every direction but this does not have that same effect and it still did not beat the record...if they had all this back in 1887 sure who knows what record they might have got...

Danno

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120074979#Comment_120074979

I really hope it isn't and the scary future ahead of us doesn't transpire.

What scary future? We generally get a few disruptive spells of weather each decade. No need to believe all the hype.

Danno

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120075278#Comment_120075278

True that.

No critical eye cast over the Phoenix Park station regarding the 33.0c there:

Clearly a new building to the southeast of the station. Just a tad over 16 metres away:

The wind was SSE that day when 33.0c was recorded - not that it matters in the Phoenix Park station as Met Eireann won't measure wind data there because it's too sheltered - they'll admit that themselves.

Wonder will Mssr Thorne call the 33.0c into question?

He will in his feck.

Furze99

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120067877#Comment_120067877

It's an awkward record - one that doesn't suit prevailing agendas.

Danno

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120076172#Comment_120076172

Spot on, if Phoenix Park had hit 33.4c last July 18th that "report" wouldn't have seen the light of day.

Neddyusa

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120076172#Comment_120076172

Nail on the head!

These guys like Thorne are actually hilariously transparent in their cherry picking of records they want to recognise, and denial of the ones that don't suit their ideology.

In another example I heard John Gibbons (not a scientist but purports to be an "expert") on the radio yesterday.

He was catastrophising about the recent warm spell in Central Europe being undisputable evidence of man-made climate change going out of control.

Then a point was made from a listener about the two week cold spell we had here in December, his response; "Oh well, we have to recognise the difference between climate and weather, that cold spell was just normal weather variation"

🤣🤣🤣

Danno

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120076886#Comment_120076886

Gibbons is a right dose alright.

Overall though there are glaring contradictions from the likes of Thorne, etc... where there is a big issue with the Kilkenny 33.3c data - when it comes to comparing data from today against data from the mid-1800s (to make the popular claim that we've warmed over 1c since 1850) there is no issue with the mid-1800s data then!

Cherrypicking of the highest order.

I bet you anything: the -19.1c at Markree from six years earlier (16/01/1881) than Kilkenny's record 33.3c will never be called into question.