New doubt cast on Ireland's hottest temperature

LaoisWeather

Ireland will struggle to cope with mid-30s temperatures (irishexaminer.com)

Next year will likely be the hottest ever globally if the so-called "El Niño" climate phenomenon returns as expected in 2023, while Ireland's record temperature will almost certainly be shattered repeatedly this decade.

Those are just some of the predictions of Maynooth University climate change professor Peter Thorne, who warned prolonged spells of heat in the mid-30s could have grave implications for human health, livestock, land, and biodiversity in Ireland.

The northern hemisphere experienced the third winter of the La Niña water cooling phenomenon, in a highly unusual "triple dip" situation. 

Opposite to the warming El Niño pattern, La Niña refers to the large-scale cooling of the ocean surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean, coupled with changes in the tropical atmospheric circulation, namely winds, pressure, and rainfall.

Even though the northern hemisphere has had three La Niña events in a row, Europe still managed to experience its hottest-ever summer. 

If El Niño returns as expected this year, its warming characteristics will significantly ramp up the potential for even hotter summers. 

Prof Thorne said the return of El Niño would likely be even more pronounced because of its longer-than-usual absence in recent times.

The massive Tonga volcanic eruption of 2022 will also be a major factor because of the huge amounts of water vapour it sent soaring 10kms into the atmosphere, where it acts like a major greenhouse gas, he added.

Irrespective of El Niño, La Niña, or neutral patterns, there is a "parade of heat records falling" across Europe time and time again, according to Prof Thorne, who was a contributing lead author on the recent UN-backed International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reports.

Ireland would not need to reach 40C like other parts of Europe to have major implications on society, he warned.

"Even hitting 33C last summer has major, major implications. Such heat has implications for a large number of people — for farmers managing livestock with heatstroke. It did a number of vegetation, beech trees in particular. 

There were very clear signs of heat distress. Natural systems and human infrastructure are not set up to sustain those kinds of temperatures, so we don't need to hit 40C for major implications for Ireland."

Whether the 33.3C record of 1887 in Kilkenny Castle is truly the highest ever temperature in Ireland, or the 33C reached in Phoenix Park last summer, it is likely to become moot by the end of the decade with those numbers being shattered, according to Prof Thorne.

"If you're going to hit 35C, you're probably looking at a longer duration event. Buildings in Ireland are built to retain heat. Pushing 33C to 35C, the stress that many people feel with the ability to cool their houses will be much worse.

"Looking at records in the likes of France, the UK, and Benelux countries have been smashed recently by degrees, not by tenths of degrees, it is only a matter of time before we break ours. 

"I can't say yet if it will be this summer, but I believe it will be shattered by 2030. We won't be arguing about whether Kilkenny Castle or Phoenix Park is the true record by then because they'll both be surpassed.

"It's certainly possible this summer for Ireland to break its temperature record. In a perpetually warming world, heat records are beating cold records far more, some by four to one in some locations."

A slight row back on his last interview where he alluded that 33.3c would likely fall during summer 2023. But he ups the ante and is certain it will be gone by 2030 and repeatedly. Thats 33.4c or higher at least twice by 31st August 2029. Tick tock.

M.T. Cranium

If he's correct about more frequent heat waves in the mid 30s, it will just be like many other places where people seem to cope fine and the biodiversity aspect is not really threatened unless the heat comes with extreme drought and wildfires. Really, a climate like Ireland enjoys is one that can handle a degree or two of warming better than most. It may not be to the liking of weather forum enthusiasts to see a shift to milder winters, but I can't think of many negative impacts on society from winters with less snow and frost. It's not like you have a winter sport industry that would suffer. Warmer springs and autumns would be generally good for business and agriculture. Not everyone on earth is going to die if the temperature goes up a degree or two, obviously you wouldn't want to be in Palm Springs or Pakistan. But you're not, so ...

Supercell

The older I get the less i like cold weather, milder winters and summers like the last one would suit me just fine. Wouldnt mind being able to grow citrus fruit in the garden

AnFearCeart

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120259403#Comment_120259403

Over 30Cs in Ireland can be oppressive with the humidity. Maybe our southern and south-eastern coastal areas will see weather more like Eastbourne and Brighton in the summers going forward? That would be a good trade-off.

Thelonious Monk

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120259403#Comment_120259403

but given we import most of our food and millions of tonnes of feed every year to give our animals we're highly dependent on weather elsewhere too. never mind the millions or billions that would be displaced by a degree or two of a rise, which would cause mayhem all over europe and give rise to all kinds of political movements. should be a right laugh.

Supercell

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120270478#Comment_120270478

Who is in second place? -https://impact.economist.com/sustainability/project/food-security-index/

highdef

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120270478#Comment_120270478

A news headline today ties in very well with your post: https://www.rte.ie/news/ireland/2023/0221/1357956-grocery-ireland/

Thelonious Monk

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120270514#Comment_120270514

we produce a load of beef and butter but we're still net importers of food i.e. most people's dinner in ireland tonight will consist of mostly imported food

Thelonious Monk

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120270591#Comment_120270591

yeah i was reading earlier that italy is facing its second year in extreme drought and canals are drying up in venice. this will hit the food system eventually.