Spain and Portugal are at their driest for 1,200 years
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The entire basis of this unfortunate topic is founded on an inability to interpret basis temperature cycles and their underlying cause as a means to begin climate change research.
This temperature graph indicates the daily temperature cycle is a property of a single rotation-
The longer term seasonal cycle is a property of two surface rotations acting in combination-
When contributors to this forum recognise planetary climate is a product of planetary dynamics by following the proper principles starting with the day/night cycle and then the seasons, then the standard of consideration is such that the computer gamers are no longer involved in the atrocity visited on the Earth science of climate and solar system research.
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" I actually understand the basic point of day cycle = seasonal/yearly cycle etc, but then doesn't it follow that there would be longer seasonal cycles also?"
The original explanation for the seasons 500 years ago was deficient for a number of reasons that are now easily corrected using visual imaging even if it has to be cobbled together from different sources. The small number of the original researchers like Copernicus, Galileo and Kepler were forced to work with the framework of Ptolemy, which took note of the annual cycle using the direct motion of the Sun through the fixed field of background stars (Constellations/Zodiac) and defined the year, but also the small 1 degree drift every 72 years known as the Precession of the Equinoxes or what they considered a 25,920 year cycle.
Copernicus was compelled to resolve this drift by employing axial precession and this is where the problem arises with the more important explanation for the seasons, at least in terms of immediacy, which involves the rotation of the entire surface parallel to the orbital plane and to the central/stationary Sun once every year.
The main fact here is - when daily rotation and all its effects are subtracted (day/night cycle, temperature fluctuations, ect), all locations on the surface still experience one rotation and one day/night cycle as a function of the orbital motion of the planet. This means that the older axial precession resolution has to be removed in order to allow the annual rotation to emerge as an explanation for seasonal and cyclical weather.
This is why the annual graphs relating temperatures are so important as they represent the dynamics of two surface rotations acting in combination where temperatures lag the dynamics but are intimately tied to them like Arctic sea ice evolution which continues to decrease late into September-
The danger of creating recent fluff like the meteorological seasons is that it diverges from the anchor in planetary dynamics which determines midsummer/midwinter on the Solstices as a reflection of the position of the North/South poles relative to the Sun and the dark hemisphere of the Earth. If sea ice was used as a guide, the seasons would be midwinter on March 1st and midsummer late September.
So, the issue is extracting axial precession as a resolution for the Precession of the Equinoxes insofar as the actual resolution is far more interesting as an extension of the much larger drift of one day or 360 degrees after every fourth 365 day cycle-
".. on account of the procession of the rising of Sirius by one day in the course of 4 years,.. therefore it shall be, that the year of 360 days and the 5 days added to their end, so one day shall be from this day after every 4 years added to the 5 epagomenae before the new year" Canopus Decree 238 BC
In attempting to make the genuine innovators through history look small so people can go on a misadventure with computer gaming the Earth science of climate, readers miss out on all the great material which connects them to planetary dynamics in a Sun-centred system.
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Possibly, but then when you read these parts...
The situation is probably most dramatic in northern Italy, where the region is undergoing the most extreme drought since the 1950s.
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"On average, 25 % of fresh water is lost on the way from the water source, such as a river, to an industrial area," Zal noted. Making water infrastructure more efficient will bring "huge potential savings." (Portugal)
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Once fertile soils are increasingly turning to sand, especially after the second driest winter since 1961, according to Spain's meteorological bureau.
And then factor in the greatly increased population and therefore demand for water, it's not just a question of agw but more about leaking infrastructure and sensible choices. Ireland loses more than half of its water through leaks in the system and we're on usage restrictions after just three weeks of no rainfall. Doesn't really mean our issues are all because of CO2, does it?
But the real driver of European precipitation patterns is the AMO, which, in its positive phase, has always led to drier conditions in the Med and wetter in northern Europe. Oneiric posted a chart showing the difference between the rainfall in the 1961-90 and 1991-2020 periods, which tied in perfectly with the switch from negative to positive AMO. But mentioning the AMO seems to be taboo here for some reason.
Post edited by Gaoth Laidir on1 -
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