Spain and Portugal are at their driest for 1,200 years

Orion402 · 28-07-2022 7:27am

There was a fella on RTE radio yesterday declaring that the scientific community is a collective so the congregation must face in the same direction as the academic priest with no input towards the modelling or dire conclusions. It is like the Latin mass of old where the priest does not face the congregation, no dissent is allowed and the purpose of the congregation is to act as cheerleaders for whatever is projected as truth and authority. It is a waste of time to appeal to such an entity so it comes down to those individuals who can take wider perspectives in order to return to the topic with a more competent and confident view.

Gaoth Laidir · 28-07-2022 11:24pm

These are probably more of the same type of climate extremist headbangers who got onto the track at the F1 GP at Silverstone and - dare I say it - probably started the London fires last week to make a point. Here they are with their latest stunt. What's the compressional strength of ice? Not too high, I hope.

https://twitter.com/BuckSexton/status/1552120290775269376?t=hnSzzhZEZAipZJ2i-hPfDQ&s=09

ZX7R · 29-07-2022 8:34am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119401720#Comment_119401720

See how they feel when a loved one takes there life that way.

Disgusting behaviour.

Orion402 · 29-07-2022 11:08am

Climate change modelling is perhaps the final expression of a subculture which emerged centuries ago in a belief that experimental sciences scale up to Earth sciences and solar system structure. The other strand is computer modelling so that academic computer gaming attempted to extend the success of short term weather modelling over a number of days to climate itself, even though planetary climate is derived first and foremost from planetary dynamics.

Whether it is unfortunate followers using a noose to prove their convictions or politicians inflicting harm on Irish society for some vague goal of preventing Ireland's maritime climate from changing into ???, it is clear that the standard of consideration is unfortunately so low in order to restore a balance.

It is dismaying to see contributors to this weather forum play their part in pandering to an overreaching version of weather that does nothing to distinguish weather from climate clearly.

highdef · 29-07-2022 12:15pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119402789#Comment_119402789

Can you explain (in layman's terms, so that most people can understand/visualise your explanation) how planetary dynamics are causing what is in-arguably a change in the climate on planet earth in recent times? It's clear you are the expert on planetary dynamics and as you say that the climate of the planet is derived from that, I would assume that you can shed some light on to the actual cause of climate change, unlike those foolish scientists who clearly know nothing and merely speculate and postulate.

OldRio · 29-07-2022 1:40pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119401720#Comment_119401720

Wow, that's some take. From protesting to arson. As an ex firefighter I've never known that but........ enjoy your rant.

Gaoth Laidir · 29-07-2022 2:31pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119403449#Comment_119403449

Because reckless behaviour is so beyond these people, right? Protesting on the track at the start of a Grand Prix, putting their and many other lives at risk, is just unheard of. Those fires were more of these divine spontaneous combustions with no human hand at play? A row of fly-tip along a road up in flames just like that. Oh yes, because the UK broke the 40-degree mark. Right. I wouldn't be surprised if it turns out that they were started maliciously, like the majority of wild fires in Europe (yes, they are).

Gaoth Laidir · 29-07-2022 2:40pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119403082#Comment_119403082

Oh ffs don't encourage him. You know he's unable to converse with other humans or say anything coherent or related to anything remotely on-topic and will just copy and paste another essay written by a monkey on a laptop.

Thargor · 29-07-2022 3:27pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119403816#Comment_119403816

Yeah and you're right there in the seat beside him in the special class though arent you? Whats your latest theory? The fires in London were nothing to do with the heat, they were started by climate extremists? So when the London Fire Brigade says they had their busiest day since the Blitz dealing with random fires and people collapsing all over the city they're just part of the liberul conspiracy aswell I suppose?

I see Danno who I assume is still supposed to be the mod of this "Science" forum thanking the complete dribbling lunacy about climate theory being like "a priest at the old Latin mass" up at the top of the page aswell, you just have to laugh, poor auld Orion was a figure of fun when he showed up but once a lunatic starts coming out with the right kind of propaganda and he gets welcomed into the crew 🤣

Gaoth Laidir · 29-07-2022 3:46pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119404071#Comment_119404071

Ah Thargor, long time, still no contribution of value! And still unable or unwilling to read what was actually written. I said most fires in dry season (Europe, Australia, wherever) are started manually, many of these maliciously. Things don't just spontaneously combust because the air reaches some magical headline figure of 40.0 degrees. I was amazed to see such lush green areas burning on that Sky News aerial footage, the same one that showed a line of washing machines and other human rubbish on fire along a road. Yeah, all of this just started of its own accord, right? The same Fire Brigade were repeatedly putting out pleas for people not to have barbeques, etc., but from what I could see these fires started more in waste ground rather than somewhere you'd light up a bbq.

I may be totally ott and wrong in my assessment and so be it. At least I have an opinion to give instead of waiting in the wings with never anything more than a personal jibe to offer. You yourself allowed the likes of Banana Republic, Orion, etc. all post their made-up nonsense without as much as a word to offer, but only when certain posters post do you have anything to say. It's a Science forum alright, so why not try posting some science for a change? The mods (of which Dannon doesn't seem to be one any more) seem to be absent here anyway so maybe go ahead and continue with your drivel instead.

OldRio · 29-07-2022 5:28pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119403767#Comment_119403767

You linked protesters to arsonists in your first post and now you're off on another rant talking about spontaneous combustion.

Not only have you deduced that the fires were started maliciously but you seem to know who caused them as well. Have you informed the relevant authorities? I'm sure a little Sherlock Holmes like yourself could be of great use.

Gaoth Laidir · 29-07-2022 7:42pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119404607#Comment_119404607

The majority of fires are started by humans, and many of them are maliciously. Fact. That's in actual arid areas, such as Iberia, Sardinia, etc. It takes a lot more to get a fire going in a lush green leafy part of London, so the probability of being maliciously started is even greater. These headbangers don't seem to stop at anything, so it's not at all out of the realms of possibility that they could have been started to make a point and highlight the great "climate emergency". What better day to do it than on the much-awaited and hyped 40-degree day?

Orion402 · 29-07-2022 8:17pm

" It's clear you are the expert on planetary dynamics and as you say that the climate of the planet is derived from that,"

As far as I am concerned, there are no experts, however, it would help if there were the only thing that mattered - gentlemen. Well worth taking on board those who sought to be productive and creative without needing a diploma or doctorate to prove it-

" We should not be able to say of a man, “He is a mathematician,” or a “preacher,” or “eloquent”; but that he is “a gentleman.” That universal quality alone pleases me." Pascal

https://www.bartleby.com/48/1/1.html

If the issue goes negative, it is a misadventure described above where the assertions are built on false premises and the misuse of computers just as previously the empirical modellers misused clocks to arrive at an exceptionally dumb conclusion that one sunrise/noon/sunset cycle is Not one rotation of the planet.

The positive approach uses imaging to demonstrate that the behaviour of planetary temperatures daily and annually are a property of a moving Earth in a Sun-centred system. Until the seasonal variations are accounted for properly, it is impossible to move on to our planet's unique climate in comparison to other planets in the solar system.

These forums always have their contrarians with lots of drama attached, but this is as much an appeal for those who are competent in animation, graphics, CGI and so on in order to construct a proper climate framework that doesn't involve politicians making fools of themselves on account of academic computer gamers who have conjured up a fantasy world with nothing but dire conclusions.

This is an adventure to raise the standard of consideration rather than contend with climate change modelling with its believers/deniers. It is also a lot of fun whether the forensics of the negative approach to the topic or the positive approach but better if people have abilities in both.

Gaoth Laidir · 29-07-2022 8:32pm

See what I mean, @highdef ?

M.T. Cranium · 29-07-2022 9:16pm

North American experience with wildfires is similar, a disturbing number of them appear to be deliberately set, and another portion are clearly due to human negligence (like tossing a butt out a window onto a dry forest margin) and at some point that negligence is hardly different in legal terms from deliberate arson.

Another growing cause especially in California comes from ill-advised "green" initiatives to leave fully grown vegetation in place along hydro-electric lines. When the usual combination of high temperatures and strong down-canyon winds sets up, this leads to sparking from the oscillating hydro lines and fires are set in the dry brush, spreading rapidly to nearby forests. In other jurisdictions, this practice has not been encouraged and this is one reason why California has seen worse wildfire impacts than elsewhere. Another reason of course is that the urban population of California has spread rapidly into "interface" zones where their homes are more likely to be in the path of spreading fires.

This is not to say that a significant number of our wildfires are not set by lightning, that was probably the main cause of the second wave of fires we had in BC last year (the first wave seemed to originate from various other causes brought on by the severe heat dome temperatures).

Going back to the political discussion, I think one poster was trying to say that the climate change movement is not of the political left but originates with big business and their conservative agenda. This, I would say, is a misread of political trends. Climate change has its origins in the green political movement and that is clearly of the left. There may be a split in the left in which some remnants of an older "working class left" still exist and some of those people may feel a disconnect with the new left which is clearly a movement of wealthy boomers and their many different political interest groups. Basically, as I see it, almost all politics nowadays are variants of globalism and the new left, even some centrist and self-described conservative political parties are following this agenda, perhaps more cautiously in some cases.

Big business may have been aligned with the political right in the younger days of many of us here, up to the mid to late 1990s, but the corporate agenda is basically to maximize profit and when business leaders realized that they now had an essentially groupthink-brainwashed consumer horde outside their gates, they rather quickly switched sides and now they position themselves as globalist (we are just as woke as you, don't let our country club memberships fool you, really, look, we are different now) ... so the old conservative coalition that was so successful under Reagan and Thatcher (due to an anti-communist foundation) now does not exist, it has split into three groups, neo-conservative (globalist war hawks), faux-con (conservative in name only, unwilling to make a complete split from the brand name, but already across the political Rubicon in terms of a belief structure), and libertarians and cultural nationalists who have formed a last stand alliance in most western countries, vilified by the media and all their political adversaries, because not woke enough, or (and this I assume is the "toxic" part) willing to call a spade a spade and say that people should govern themselves and not wait around for Karl Schwab, Davos and the WEF to send their disciples to govern. In Canada unfortunately the majority have said "you go right ahead, Karl, and Justin, we sure like your socks" and have decided to assist the globalist movement in dismantling Canada's economy and society in the interest of rich patrons of globalism such as the Middle eastern oil powers (why do you suppose it is that Canadian oil is "dirty" but Saudi oil is "clean" and why do you suppose this is what a stumbling horde of brainwashed individuals are heard to recite on their way to pick up the latest government benefit cheque drawn from made up money that will one day soon not even have any value at all). If this is toxic, so be it, I look at it as survivalist. I don't want to be governed by Karl Schwab, whether he's a socialist, a liberal, a communist or a fascist, and maybe he is a bit of all those, having drawn on whatever works to bring the desired results.

Also I don't appreciate having our science which had such a long and distinguished record through many decades hijacked by people who know nothing about weather or climate, pretend they know a lot, and are transparently using climate events to drive a dangerous political agenda. Here again, if this much truth is toxic, perhaps it's a good thing. Where else are you going to hear it? Will the "traditional left" who have nothing to do with all this (so they say) expose these truths? Unlikely. They are too busy inventing new narratives that have almost zero appeal as most have moved on and chosen their new 21st century political homes. And I would conclude by saying, most have chosen unwisely. We go through this about once a generation or two. The conservative revival of the early 1980s was mostly based on socialist failures of the 1970s. One can only hope the same cycle is about to begin, but with the amount of societal control gained by the globalist forces, that seems very improbable. The truth may never come out because instead we may descend into a series of ever more dangerous regional wars that will end up in a global catastrophe when forces align in such a way that nobody has anything left to lose. How close are we to this now? Five years? Ten? I am rather old, I may not survive to see it. But it's coming.

Orion402 · 30-07-2022 7:25am

" I see Danno who I assume is still supposed to be the mod of this "Science" forum thanking the complete dribbling lunacy about climate theory being like "a priest at the old Latin mass"

When a contributor raises the standard of consideration in any topic, they do not need to attack anyone nor do they need to dilute what is being said as you have just done. A subculture which demands that the cheerleaders follow the dictates and imperatives without question attracts those who don't reason for themselves and climate change modelling as one symptom of these monstrosities among others, creates a false atmosphere for discussion. I do not contend with those who come up with contrived reasoning to support their assertion of a flat Earth while others may contend with them and likewise, the idea that humans can control the weather by doing or not doing something is also from that type of utterly ridiculous assertions. Of course, this is written for people who can step outside the conceptual bubble and recognise that planetary climate is rooted in planetary dynamics.

I brought up natural selection as an example of a society which ran with an academic doctrine, in this case 1930's German society, where they were unquestioning in the natural selection imperative to invade and exterminate based on the idea of superior/inferior 'races'. It is remarkable that after the WWII Holocaust that the academic doctrine not only survived but continues to be passed on from one generation to the next as an intellectual achievement. That is what society is up against, an unbending academic community that only knows how to protect itself, but also does not know how to change. You may not know it, however, I am certain that other, more reasonable people with a sense of integrity do.

Once again, it takes information sharing and raising the standard of consideration to counter those who imagine discussion is point scoring or some other bag of tricks to dilute appreciation of the Earth science of climate as it really exists.

Thargor · 30-07-2022 7:58am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119404140#Comment_119404140

Oh look still the angry little forum policeman dictating who can say what... Well you can lie and claim not to have said it but its right there a few posts above yours... did you miss the bit where a retired firefighter took you up on it aswell or did that not happen too? Throw in a bit of gaslighting and strawman crap about spontaneous combustion which nobody claimed, real value being added to the forum there alright.

Whats your value contribution that you're always demanding from others here exactly then wannabe forum policeman? "I may be totally ott and wrong in my assessment and so be it. At least I have an opinion to give". Oh yeah very scientific approach professor! A wild conspiracy theory about environmental campaigner arsonists burning down rows of houses on the worst day for the London Fire Brigade since WWII and not a peep out of the police and the media about it? Jesus Christ. Nothing to do with AGW making drought and fire conditions more and more prolonged and prevalent year on year exactly in line with predictions no, only geniuses like you and Orion402 can see the real "science".

Gaoth Laidir · 30-07-2022 9:03am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119406586#Comment_119406586

"Angry little forum policeman". Look who's talking!

Before yesterday you hadn't posted in this forum for almost 9 months, and that post back then was what? A personal jab at me, of course. Going back further and further the same posting pattern of only personal insults and namecalling. Before the switch to the new webs(h)ite last year such a pattern would probably have had you banned, but maybe the mod rules have changed now too. It seems anything goes.

Do you want to give some scientific reasons why you think only agw caused drier conditions this year, given that many other years in the 19th and early 20th centuries had worse droughts? Or did you miss that discussion too? Put your money where your mouth is and come up with some figures.

kippy · 30-07-2022 9:29am

The climate change 'debate' is an interesting one. There are countless people who think humans aren't having an impact on climate and countless others who think they are. Plenty think all of this is natural and cyclical and plenty who think human activity is excarbarating the situation.

On one hand you have people who think we shouldn't change our behaviour and on the other people who think we should.

Now if you take this on a purely climate change angle that may be fine. Perhaps if we continue as we are things will remain cyclical and we had no impact on anything but really, when common sense comes into it you really have to accept that we need to change our behaviours drastically and not from a climate change perspective although the change in behaviour would help those that accept human led climate change is real.

Our consumerism based society is leading to a hell of a lot of negative consequences that we have to accept are bad for the human race ultimately. Whether is it slave labour and questionable work practices, microplastics, utilising finite materials, throwaway culture, and so on. The list is endless.

Not saying we need to stop investing in tech or go back to the stone age, but that we need to take a long hard look at where we are going.

Gaoth Laidir · 30-07-2022 9:37am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119406756#Comment_119406756

Good points. We need to get off fossil fuels anyway as it's a finite resource and there are so many more cleaner and free energy sources available, if only the will were there to use them. But then you have nimbys who don't like the look of a wind farm on the side of a mountain or 10 km out to sea off the east coast. No excuse for not using wave/tidal or even nuclear energy for our energy needs. The very mention of the word "nuclear" sends people running but in many cases they're not quite sure why.

Thargor · 30-07-2022 9:41am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119406687#Comment_119406687

Yeah nice dodge of addressing any of the points that were put to you there, smooth, Id be embarrassed too and wouldn't want to talk about it if I came out with that crap.

"Put your money where your mouth is and come up with some figures." Okay hang on a minute while I fire up Microsoft Excel there and make up some fake numbers like you were hilariously caught doing.

Rikand · 30-07-2022 9:48am

I dont often agree with Orion, but I do like how he stepped in there and effectively told Thargor to go do one.

Orion402 · 30-07-2022 9:51am

" The climate change 'debate' is an interesting one"

The climate change assertion is like a flat Earth assertion as the standard is so low that it can only interest those who lack the perceptive faculties to realise it is based on an imperative that humans must control weather/temperatures through action or inaction.

Cyclical weather like the seasons involves planetary dynamics so climate is an extension of this approach. In short, planetary climate is the rate of change in atmospheric, oceanic and landmass conditions across latitudes as the planet runs a circuit of the Sun with each component influencing the other. It is therefore not just an atmospheric issue as the modellers would wish to have it but far more involved and intricate.

Gaoth Laidir · 30-07-2022 10:12am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119406799#Comment_119406799

Nice dodge yourself re. Excel. Childish.

About the spontaneous combustion, I didn't make that up. Not sure why you and OldRio think it's a strawman. It's what one resident claimed happened to a compost heap in a Wennington garden.

“It was a three-foot high pile of grass and the heat had built up inside, it just spontaneously combusted.

Mr. Stock’s claim has not been confirmed by LFB.

It's amazing the amount of tinder that's all around me here in Sardinia as I speak and yet it's not all bursting into flames. Truly amazing. Here are some photos I took the other day. That poor donkey is probably burnt to a crisp by now.

OldRio · 30-07-2022 1:23pm

I've never seen a compost heap set on fire but the temperatures generated can be very high. Mine are about 60C and have reached 70C. For auto ignition to take place those temps would have to be much much higher. (Spontaneous Ignition is a term that in laymen terms is 'bollox')

I have read reports of them igniting when the moisture content is incorrect, very dry but I've never seen it myself.

As for hordes of climate activists igniting all and sundry. Well, I'm reminded of that layman's term again.

Thargor · 30-07-2022 1:25pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119406909#Comment_119406909

Childish? You're the one who tried to get away with it and got busted, Im just laughing about it still 🤣

Anyway WTF are you on about now? One resident in all of London thinks a compost heap spontaneously combusted, so what? Another nice dodge of the points put to you about your ridiculous arson conspiracy comments btw, care to address any of that?

(Not to even mention the fact that spontaneous combustion in compost is a well documented occurrence whatever point you were trying to make there only Orion402 knows)

Gaoth Laidir · 30-07-2022 2:44pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119407535#Comment_119407535

Tried to get away with and got busted for what?

You really can't follow what's going on, can you? You call it arson conspiracy theory, well I'm afraid the stats show that in many cases it's down to arson. I've outlined in detail why, as has MT, but you just ignored that bit. The source of one of the major fires was said to be that compost heap, a 3-foot pile of grass cuttings, in the garden of the guy I quoted. It was all over the news, not just "one resident thinking it". It was the same with the Canadian heatwave last year. You had Akrasia here claiming a whole town just went up in flames out of nowhere. People seem to believe this sort of stuff. Meanwhile, in the real world, piles of tinder in hotter climes are not just going up in flames. You ignored that bit too. But go ahead and believe all this stuff if you want to while still not providing one shred of evidence of anything.