Spain and Portugal are at their driest for 1,200 years

Akrasia

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119382261#Comment_119382261

What advice would you give to the new Uk pm on climate change

PokeHerKing

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119382154#Comment_119382154

So how many years to go?

Gaoth Laidir

The index used in the Spanish Met tool I linked to is the SPEI, which is the preferred drought monitoring tool in use globally. It takes into account not only rainfall but also potential evotranspiration. Looking purely at precipitation anomalies doesn't tell the full story.

Orion402

Expunging the history and the academic doctrine of natural selection which led to the death of 6 million people in the Holocaust is horrifying and as a means to demonstrate what happens when a dangerous academic doctrine gains political and media acceptance.

There are those out there who use contrived reasoning to demonstrate a flat Earth assertion while others contend with that ridiculous notion but everyone seems to be enjoying themselves. Raising the standard of consideration is an altogether different approach as the false assertions disappear because genuine climate research is so enjoyable and as interesting as the working of the human body.

Wasting energy on climate change modelling is truly a horrific human condition which attracts those who have settled for its false assertions.

Akrasia

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119382615#Comment_119382615

Humans have broken the natural cycle. We are likely to push the earth into a new equilibrium due to increased Gahags in the atmosphere. That equilibrium can be either hospitable or hostile to human life depending on the actions we take now

PokeHerKing

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119383418#Comment_119383418

So the theory stays a theory because of a new theory yeah?

Hooter23

Spain and portugal have there driest weather for 1,200 years...and all ireland gets out of it is a 1-2 day heatwave....if this is what they call global warming then there still is no hope for our weather

timmyntc

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119383418#Comment_119383418

Humans have broken the natural cycle

Source?

That assertion would require that we know the natural cycle in extreme detail and can predict accurately where it would be less human interference. Not an easy feat given the incredibly long timespans dealt with. How do you know if the cycle is broken in such a small timescale of human emissions in the post-industrial era? Could easily be just a small aberration in the long natural cycle, impossible to know this early.

Orion402

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119383820#Comment_119383820

Researchers don't even know the dynamics behind the natural cycle in general, let alone in detail and that includes the motions which create hemispherical weather cycles known as the seasons. Humans cannot break the natural cycle unless they assume responsibility for controlling the variations in cyclical weather and the underlying dynamics which also create the seasonal variations in daylight/darkness lengths.

Humans did try to break the natural cycle as an intellectual misadventure by conjuring up contrived reasoning to vandalise the relationship between one rotation to the central/stationary Sun which gives us natural daily variations in weather by appealing to the daily change in the position of the stars instead-

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BYy0EQBnqHI

That awful 17th century mistake leads to a belief that there are more rotations than natural sunrise/noon/sunset cycles in a year-

" It is a fact not generally known that, owing to the difference between solar and sidereal time, the Earth rotates upon its axis once more often than there are [24 hour] days in the year" NASA /Harvard

It would be really nice to encounter an individual who is capable of understanding that the 24 hour day is the only acceptable timekeeping designation and that one rotation has an effect of one sunrise/noon/sunset cycle every 24 hours and a thousand rotations in a thousand 24 hour days.

Yes, things are really this bad.

Oneiric 3

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119382587#Comment_119382587

What a bizarre question.

M.T. Cranium

I would tell the new UK p.m. not to believe everything they hear from experts but of course the sort of person who succeeds in modern society is exactly the sort of person who believes that experts are infallible since they themselves are experts (on politics).

This is how we got into the mess we are in, believing that we have wrecked the weather machine, when in fact all we have done is to tinker with it slightly. And our response should be proportionate to that reality.

Leftists are going to say, thank goodness you're not giving advice to important people, because they will realize that their dreams of wrecking the economy (and the irony being that stuff about wrecking the atmosphere) would be thwarted by a common sense approach and leftist political goals would not be met.

As it is, we are staggering down the road to oblivion, having decided to commit economic (and social) suicide in some vain attempt to fix a problem which we cannot fix and which may not even be a problem.

I should probably retire, obviously I am one of those "old people out of touch" or what leftists call elders in every culture but our own. We will own nothing and be happy, we are told by people who don't plan to own nothing because, well, somebody should be rewarded for saving the earth.

Orion402

The term 'denial' in climate change denial comes from borrowing on Holocaust denial or people who refuse to accept the history behind millions murdered in the death factories of WWII. The Nazi centred their invasion and extermination policies on natural selection, a Victorian races/racism doctrine which is founded on a large part by events in 1840's Ireland, where the imperatives of the invader (Malthus) were joined with the biological deficiencies of the invaded (Darwin/Wallace).

There is no need to expunge the links between an academic doctrine of the mid 19th century and the political actions of the mid 20th century and especially in the topic of climate modelling which raises the term 'denial'. The lesson learned is that when an academic doctrine gains social/political acceptance, it takes on monstrous convictions which fill social media and often headlines the news in order to drive society into hysterics and desperation.

I urge the moderator not to disguise what happened when an academic doctrine got out of control, not because the 1930's German society misused that doctrine but that it applied its awful races/racism principles with enthusiasm -

"I could show fight on natural selection having done and doing more for the progress of civilisation than you seem inclined to admit. Remember what risks the nations of Europe ran, not so many centuries ago of being overwhelmed by the Turks, and how ridiculous such an idea now is. The more civilised so-called Caucasian races have beaten the Turkish hollow in the struggle for existence. Looking to the world at no very distant date, what an endless number of the lower races will have been eliminated by the higher civilised races throughout the world." Charles Darwin 1881

" Under proper guidance, in the course of the final solution the Jews are to be allocated for appropriate labour in the East. Able-bodied Jews, separated according to sex, will be taken in large work columns to these areas for work on roads, in the course of which action doubtless a large portion will be eliminated by natural causes. The possible final remnant will, since it will undoubtedly consist of the most resistant portion, have to be treated accordingly, because it is the product of natural selection and would, if released, act as the seed of a new Jewish revival" Wannsee Conference, 1942

It takes courage to take on wayward ideologies like climate change modelling so that while the Nazis were defeated by the courage of other nations, the underlying academic doctrine which sent a society into enacting atrocities still survives and remains celebrated among those who use it for science vs faith or creationism vs natural selection and things like that.

This is our history and we should own it rather than try to hide it. Computers are needed for things like CGI which will help observers understand planetary climate arising from planetary dynamics so let those who argue at the level of climate change believers/denialists carry on, more reasonable people are asked to raise the level of consideration.

Oneiric 3

The calibre of contesters for the next UK PM, and we are asked as to what advice we would give them?

https://twitter.com/AdamBienkov/status/1549396990051639296

😏

THE_SHEEP

Funny this , but we've been recently informed here in Ireland , that we cannot trust data from the 1850s as regards temperature change , but yet , 1200 years ago ..........

( Ahhh , but that suits a narrative !! ) .

Thelonious Monk

Parts of England have seen zero rainfall in July and are looking at the driest July on record, a dry August will mean drought conditions. As well as record breaking temps this summer.

Danno

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119391983#Comment_119391983

Blog: The UK's wettest and driest months | Historic Droughts (ceh.ac.uk)

February 1891 was extremely dry and the driest calendar month in our records. February has a slight advantage here being our shortest month, but even taking this into consideration it really was a notable month. Many rain gauges recorded very little rain or even no rain at all. The settled conditions favoured frequent fog, and the totals reported from some rain gauges were in fact small amounts of water from the fog and heavy dew rather than rainfall. Outside of the fog however there was plenty of fine sunny weather. In London the observer in West Kensington celebrated this unusual occurrence:

“A rainless month has not occurred in London since July 1800! So we may congratulate ourselves on having seen what hardly anyone living has seen before.”

July 1800 and February 1891 were both extremely dry across the UK.

History is fantastic!

Gaoth Laidir

Not sure how July 2022 can be a record dry month when July 1800 had 0 mm. Can't get drier than that.

Danno

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119392117#Comment_119392117

Maybe the observer was using the rainwater for some homebrew? 😜

Thelonious Monk

I was just parroting what I saw on BBC Weather about an hour ago. Either way, they're going into drought territory in much of England. As are swathes of the USA. Maybe this is normal but it seems to me that there's a lot of drought going on right now.

Gaoth Laidir

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119392182#Comment_119392182

Or it may be the old attribution chestnut that "the probability of dry months is projected to increase, therefore that proves that this dry month was due to agw".

dePeatrick

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119387752#Comment_119387752

You do realise the new PM in UK is likely to be Truss…good luck with telling her anything.

Orion402

It is genuinely nice to see you all look after each other within the ideology of climate change modelling, although it doesn't help raise the standard of consideration. On the other hand, it really is not nice to see those with political influence argue over agriculture even though we are blessed with a maritime climate with plenty of grass arising from our proximity to the Atlantic among other things. Somehow, people forgot we have a maritime climate which doesn't change no matter how small or large our livestock is but then again, common sense doesn't make an appearance in this topic at any level of consideration.

Modelling for interpretation using computers, CGI, graphics and so on should be a brilliant and productive exercise, using computer simulated conclusions with dire predictions is a sign of gamers although short term weather modelling is fine within limits. Obviously readers can't presently tell the difference.

M.T. Cranium

For the question of how much rain has fallen in England, the EWP (England and Wales precip) stands at about 15 mm and will likely finish the month between 20 and 25, the sixth driest July in 256 years of data they have. 1825, 1800, 1911 and probably 1868 will finish drier, and this July may be around 5th or 6th driest so it's not quite as bad as some have implied, albeit that is a regional average and perhaps parts of the south are very close to zero. The hot summer of 1976 also had considerable drought problems in southern England. August looks like it will begin to return to a more normal pattern, so perhaps this drought will eventually be alleviated in the worst hit cases.

Gaoth Laidir

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119392539#Comment_119392539

Alas, all reasoning that will never make it into the Guardian or onto the BBC.

odyboody

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119387752#Comment_119387752

Don't think its a leftist agenda in fairness, After all its big business that are making a fortune by convincing us it our fault while doing nothing to really correct the problem. Sure they are selling us the dream that we can effect change by buying more stuff, changing where the emissions are produced and telling us we are not producing any. In the end until big business really start to make meaningful changes we are only being fooled.

There is also other ice core evidence which shows that a fluctuating climate is the normal for our planet, it is only an abnormally long stable period which has enabled the human race to develop.

Orion402

The nearest to being negative is the demonstrate where even the most basic experience of weather and its underlying cause found in one rotation of the planet was vandalised by empirical modellers using clocks in the late 17th century just as academic gamers misuse computers in ours.

"The first motion, named nuchthemeron by the Greeks, as I said is the rotation which is the characteristic of a day plus a night." Copernicus, Chapter 11, De Revolutionibus

http://www.webexhibits.org/calendars/year-text-Copernicus.html

It is much easier to associate one rotation with one sunrise/noon/sunset cycle insofar as the day/night cycle is anchored to noon along with the timekeeping 24 hour cycle.

At the level of computer gaming the Earth science of climate, whether a proponent or an opponent of its dire conclusions or disputing whether it is human caused or natural, the fantasy is maintained so long as the original assertion that humans control the weather/temperatures is not challenged. Considering this not only took up a large proportion of the news this morning, but also brought in commentaries on challenging an academic collective, it is remarkable that the same academics haven't the slightest interest in planetary climate as a property of planetary dynamics first and foremost.

As far as I can tell, the entire issue of climate change modelling can be reduced to the Guinness Book Of Records where it is all about record breaking weather events and that never can be the basis of anything.

Whatdoesitmatter

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119394234#Comment_119394234

Your words give me wood

Oneiric 3

I don't really get this 'leftist' thing. But with all respect to MT, this is just toxic N. American 'culture war' speak that has no place on this side of the Atlantic. What American's call 'leftist' is something I don't recognise as being remotely left-wing.

Back on topic. Droughts have always occurred in the UK and the south of the country in particular has always been more prone than most. I don't think a longer term trend (using E & W data) can be reasonably picked up either way. Some of our own biggest droughts that have lasted months have occurred in the long gone past.

Whatdoesitmatter

Mod Note:

@Orion402 Please do not post in this thread again

Danno

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119392206#Comment_119392206

Therein lies the problem...

I was just parroting what I saw on BBC Weather about an hour ago.

The sooner that ordinary people realise that vast swathes of the media which really are just mega-corporations are feeding them a diet of guilt and shame along with a generous topping of bull manure the better.

The newscaster that uttered those words into the microphone - do they give two fooks about the environment as they pick up their six-figure salaries? They're out the gap a few hours later into their large land cruisers on to uncongested streets (as the peasants cannot afford the charges) and out into the leafy suburbs to their two-million pound mansion. They'll be by the pool having their house maid cook up an avocado stir fry to be washed down with a Californian wine as the sun goes down.