Irish birthrate slumps 22% in a decade

conorhal

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119267015#Comment_119267015

At least the 'xenophobic Irish first nonsense' is efficient, compared to your nonsense, which will take at least several more decades to turn Ireland into a third world country. Perhaps instead, we could address the fact that we have allowed corporate interests to transform work and society into an utterly hostile envirornment to the very concept of family.

ancapailldorcha

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119267271#Comment_119267271

I'll believe it when I see evidence. In my experience, this tends not to be forthcoming.

Corporate interests didn't turn work and society into a hostile environment as you say, conservatives did.

Sunny Disposition

Amazing that the birthrate could fall so much in a decade.

I'd expect that quite few working people nowadays would have a house or a child by 30. Until relatively recently it'd be unusual for a woman not to have any children by age 33, but that wouldn't be a bit unusual now. Things have changed hugely really, large families are not very common anymore, four would be seen as a big family now, whereas once it might have been about average. The UK used to have smaller family sizes than us, but more and more Ireland is like that with fewer kids very much the norm.

One concern I'd have is that culture doesn't encourage having children nowadays. I think many younger people, even my own kids, don't realise how rewarding it is. It strikes me that many younger people only see downsides, even though being a parent is fantastic.

Igotadose

Increase in education levels, especially among women, is correlated with smaller family size. As is increase in prosperity - prosperous parents have fewer children. And, it's a cycle - fewer children means lower expenses and a better lifestyle.

Tony EH

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119267523#Comment_119267523

It costs money to have a child. A lot. And many people just have it.

Igotadose

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119267565#Comment_119267565

Don't have it?

Geuze

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119267534#Comment_119267534

There is some evidence of slightly higher fertility at high incomes:

https://twitter.com/scottsantens/status/1004807354402172928

Geuze

A nice study of fertility:

https://voxeu.org/article/new-era-economics-fertility

A new era in the economics of fertility

Matthias Doepke, Anne Hannusch, Fabian Kindermann, Michèle Tertilt 11 June 2022

As fertility rates have declined in high-income countries, the cross-country relationship between women’s labour supply and fertility has reversed. Today, in countries where more women are working, more babies are born. This column suggests that classic models of fertility no longer explain ultra-low fertility rates in high-income countries, where the compatibility of women’s career and family goals are now a key driver of fertility decisions. The authors highlight four factors that facilitate combining a career and childbirth: family policy, cooperative fathers, favourable social norms, and flexible labour markets.

Shoog

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119267271#Comment_119267271

If you misidentify the source of a problem then you will propose ineffective solutions. Immigrants are not the source of the Irish housing crisis - the cause is the response to the financial crisis of a over a decade ago. Cheap money for the super wealthy means they can buy up all the assets, including houses, and rent it out to everyone else at vast profit. Thats what heppens when you allow a sector to monopolize an asset. Government policy encouraged this.

Immigrants don't buy houses - they rent houses - if there are no houses to buy then you have to ask who has them and why.

Greyfox

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119267523#Comment_119267523

Those possible downsides should not be ignored as parenting is very hard work. Parenting is not for everybody and I'm glad more people these days are weighing up the many pros and many cons before deciding.

completedit

Revolution is in the air. 10 years I gave it unless they've placated us so much with their entertainment products. The show is up and Russia Ukraine and the loose monetary policy combined with the global warming is gonna change our society in a way that we haven't seen since the French Revolution.

The capitalism we have had since the 80s has benefited capitalism itself and the ultra rich. It feeds into our lizard brain though because those who do well think they are the winners and in some ways they are. They then enjoy the fruits of their efforts and the cycle repeats itself like a virus. If you step outside the game you're a loser. We are all complicit in this bullshit. And what we have to show for it is the anericanisation of the globe and a Starbucks on every corner. **** that.

Dyr

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119268399#Comment_119268399

A hundred thousand PPS numbers issued to non Irish last year, apparently this is not the major driver in the availability of housing because.... they werent buying houses 😂

I'll give the Irish left one thing, their commitment to the reciting their lines regardless is exemplary

spontindeed

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119268399#Comment_119268399

If demand for housing outstrips supply because of the immigration surge, it's common knowledge that Irish people and couples won't be able to find housing or even rent. The only way to curtail demand for housing is to curtail non-EU migration here thus making it easier for professional working people to find housing/accommodation. We can't keep paving over our countryside. If anything, I think we will need legislation to take down the SDH high-rise developments that were previously granted between 2016 and now and use some of the Apple Tax to compensate the owners fully or partly (depending on whether or not they're individuals or cuckoo funds). This would be retroactive and it can be legally done, because it would be in the public interest.

Shoog

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119269225#Comment_119269225

So you do not see that vast tracks of housing have been bought up by vulture funds for rental at exorbitant rates ?

Your only able to see the issue you want to focus on.

Hamachi

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119269261#Comment_119269261

If you can’t understand that the exorbitant levels of inward migration to this country aren’t a significant contributory factor to the housing crisis, it doesn’t say much for your powers of comprehension.

spontindeed

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119269261#Comment_119269261

We can't keep paving over our countryside. There seems to be a simplistic solution of 'more housing' but no matter how much housing we keep building, we will never be able to keep up with demand if we don't curtail non-EU immigration here. We would just be building all over the place and that's not sustainable. The Government needs to make multinationals and cuckoo funds pay higher taxes or force them to pay potential back taxes in order to cool the overheating economy while at the same time using the tax money to target Irish professional working people to procreate. Only working people should be entitled to it, like for example in Hungary.

Jim2007

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119269362#Comment_119269362

So what is your excuse for the housing crisis in the 50s, 60s, 70s…… beyond pretending it never existed. Ireland is a wealthy first world country that could go along way to solving the housing crisis if it followed the same approach as other EU member states, but that is not what the voters want.

The voters want/demand that the solution to the housing crisis must be that everyone should be able to own a house at a reasonable cost. That has never worked in the past nor for that matter in any other Anglo sphere country and it is not going to work now either.

Tony EH

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119268288#Comment_119268288

Money.

Mike Murdock

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119269486#Comment_119269486

I agree @Jim2007

Security of tenure when it comes to renting is critical. Not one-year leases, but three to five-year leases with no rental increases allowed during that period and a subsequent cut in the tax that Landlords have to pay. It's around 40% now, which is insane.

But, it will be difficult to change a culture that believes that "Rent is dead money".

Wanderer78

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119270232#Comment_119270232

...again, what people are truly looking for is 'security of accommodation', hence why theres a want and need for ownership, as its an attempt in doing so, again, ownership in ireland is actually on par with european averages, but since we ve also imported modern ideologies such as financialisation of our property markets, we to are now also experiencing its dysfunctions and failures, primarily serious supply problems, along side hyper inflated prices.....

conorhal

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119268399#Comment_119268399

Add a million people to the country in a manner that is utterly inorganic and difficult to plan for, be surprised there is a housing shortage and pretty much all other services come under strain.

Add hundreds of thousands of migrants that (as you point out) rent and then watch the building sector pivot to build lucrative buy-to-let shoebox properties to accomodate that market, be surprised that there are no houses to buy.

Import hundreds of thousands of wagie's to do minimum wage jobs, people who pay little tax and expatriate what megre saving they make and are a net drain on the economy, be surprised that immigrants aren't actually going to 'pay for your pension' and the age at which you will qualify for one goes up despite all the migrants that have arrive tp 'pay for your pension' as we keep getting told.

Reduce your society to nothing but an economy of transiant workers and citizens to nothing but a PPS number, and be surprised when social cohesion collapses.

I could go on, and on but it would probably be fruitless. Mass immigration is nothing less then a pyramid scheme.

Wanderer78

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119270269#Comment_119270269

...again, immigration is a consequences not a causation!

Sunny Disposition

There is some frustration in this thread and I think it's understandable.

It's a pretty sad indictment of Ireland at the moment that people in stable relationships won't have children because they can't afford a house.

In my local paper today I saw that the county of Clare's population has increased by 40% since the 90s, no doubt this is the case across most of the country. Of course there was very little planning for this and houses have become very expensive. The fall in the birth rate is almost certainly tied up with this.

Someone else said that there could be a revolution. I wouldn't be as dramatic as that, but if SF come to power promising to promote cheaper housing and more protection for workers rather than encouraging FDI it'll be a huge political moment. I'd be very cynical about SF, but if people can't afford basics like a house and feel they can't have children then there is a huge need for an upheaval.

Geuze

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119270232#Comment_119270232

I can't see how there can be a different income tax rate for rental income versus all other types of income.

There might be other tax changes possible.

Wanderer78

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119270389#Comment_119270389

ah tis in the post now, it ll be interesting to see how sf get on, but you can already see peoples expectations of them are already too great, they re gonna struggle to live up to them....

we need the fdi, but their interests should not exceed our needs...

i found this times podcast equally interesting yet disturbing at the same time, you can see how lost our main parties are with this....

https://player.fm/series/irish-times-inside-politics/do-fine-gael-get-it-una-mullally-debates-neale-richmond

Sunny Disposition

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119270431#Comment_119270431

Expectations are way too high for sure. They could find it very hard to make house prices ten per cent more affordable, if they were to achieve that I'd count it as an achievement. But one way or another the demand for a strong left wing party is here now, I doubt it'll go away either. To bring it back to the thread, if people in their 30s find it so hard to afford having children then society does need to be reset to some extent.

Wanderer78

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119270580#Comment_119270580

im not convinced its possible to significantly reduce the price of housing, in fact, it may remain climbing, governments have limited abilities to control such prices, sf would probably be better off significantly increasing output, but keep the majority of these new properties in public ownership, place these new assets in sovereign wealth funds, this will help to provide us with our future needs, and offer these properties for long term rent. this would solve many issues, the most important being providing, 'security of accommodation' to those that need it...

yes anger is peaking now, but expectations are to, these issues will not be resolved quickly, they ll take many years to attempt to, sf will require a couple of terms to try, but the electorate may not give them that, that leaves the door open for the extremes! we really do need to be very careful what we wish for here!

Dyr

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119269261#Comment_119269261

Irish left: We don't understand that demand is a critical factor in pricing 😂

So much fun to see the Irish left performing all sorts of acrobatics to protect their sacred cows

Wanderer78

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119270629#Comment_119270629

...and many dont understand, ignoring the overall money supply, in particular the private sector money supply, i.e. the credit supply, and its dangers, leads to catastrophic failures!

Sunny Disposition

"Lists and graphs and GDPs and indexes and stuff" says Una Mullally on that podcast.