Sinn Fein and how do they form a government dilemma

Loafing Oaf

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119445917#Comment_119445917

There 's no obligation on any party to discuss their plans for government formation in advance of the election. Perfectly legitimate for them to say they are standing on their own platform and then see where things stand after the election. Pascal Donohoe suggested FF and FG running on a joint platform but was knocked back so it doesn't look like that'll be happening. FF have already signalled theire willingness to do business with SF but win't want to say any more than that for fear of being portrayed as potential lackeys of Mary Lou.

Re Labour, if the Dail is divided into apparent roughly equal blocs of an SF-led Left and FF + FG + non-Left independents, any of the left/progressive parties would face an enormous backlash for 'crossing the floor' to prop up another FF/FG government. But if those are the numbers I don't believe FF & FG would form an actual bloc as it looks increasingly likely to me that FF would support an SF-led government in preference to another deal with FG.

twin_beacon

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119446906#Comment_119446906

Indeed no party is under an obligation to discuss their plans for government formation, however, if FF and FG stated that their plans are to return the current government, then the two parties should be transfer friendly.

LAB is still in decline since 2016, I really would be shocked if they entered government again.

Loafing Oaf

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119462722#Comment_119462722

IMO FF's indication that it is willing to do business with SF puts the kibosh on any sort of cooperation with FG. If the central plank of FG's election campaign is "An SF-led government would be Ireland's worst nightmare and a vote for any other party is potentially a vote for SF" I don't see how they can give any encouragement to their voters to transfer to FF.

The circumstances where I see Labour entering government is if they are essential to making up the numbers for an SF-led Left government. In this scenario SF would almost certainly be forming a government anyway with the support of FF so Labour could use the rationale that their participation would be giving the government a proper left direction.

shoegirl

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119424251#Comment_119424251

Holly Cairns only won her seat on transfers from an SF candidate in 2020 - a bump for SF (or resurgent FG now that KAren Coakley is out) there would have brought FG a seat in 2020 and higher SF in 2020 would have delivered the seat to SF. Cairns is out in the next election, surely

Garry Gannon - won the seat on the back of MLMcD not having a running mate - he'll be eviscerated in 2020 (unless he jumps ship to SF which is a slim possibility)

Cian O'Callaghan - Denise Mitchell SF had almost 2 quotas in 2020 which gifted both him and possibly Aiodhan O Riordan a seat on transfers. He only had half a quota in his own right so we'll be waving "bye bye" to him next election.

Jennifer Whitmore had .59 of a quota so has a better chance but was helped along by FG splitting its vote 3 ways (1.54 quotas) and SF having a large surplus with nowhere to go (1.45 quotas) so she'll be battling it out with FF (.83 quotas) the greens and possibly a stronger FG 2nd candidate (they made a huge mistake in running Billy Timmins in 2020).

Shortfall and Murphy are safe: with such a licking in an election would find it hard to see why they would take the risk of further cannibalisation and more likely to stay outside government. (Murphy in particular I'd predict will NEVER go into government.)

AndrewJRenko

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119482036#Comment_119482036

Great analysis, though I wouldn’t underestimate the many attractions of a Ministry for those approaching the end of their career; pension, legacy, ego.

L1011

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119483668#Comment_119483668

Going for a Ministry when you've not had one before does not guarantee any pension. You need 2 years service to get a cent; and reshuffles or new elections can knock you out.

Shortall does not have one (she is over 65, and elected before 2004 so could claim it under either basis if so) as her service was under 2 years. A few months could be very valuable there!

blanch152

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119414574#Comment_119414574

A C&S arrangement would be interesting. FF are sure to have learned from the last time.

They could pick SF Ministers off one by one. SF would be seriously exposed with nobody at cabinet with any experience of government at all.

Would be a complete disaster for the country though, and you would hope it didn't last long.

Brussels Sprout

I just hope that during the next election campaign we won't have the likes of RTE and Pat Kenny hounding all of the parties to rule out going into coalition with other parties at every given opportunity. Realistically FG and SF are highly unlikely to go into coalition with each other. They know it. The voters know it. We don't need some kind of blood oath ruling it out.

As we move away from the big two party system and more into the multiple medium to small sized parties we're going to see more complex coalitions formed. If parties start ruling out other parties before the election even happens it doesn't really help anyone and makes everything more complex after the election.

FrancieBrady

How many constituencies/or candidates did the SD's stand in at the last election does anyone know?

Brucie Bonus

I hope we don't get a replay of the last time.

They should be having chats with potential partners in the run up. Even those previously reluctant to side them will be considering it, especially if the only other option is FF/FG again. And I'd include FF in that.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119563736#Comment_119563736

Elections ireland has lots of that data.

https://electionsireland.org/results/general/33dail.cfm

6 seats from 20 candidates in 20 constituencies.

Jim2007

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119564987#Comment_119564987

It will be far more difficult the next time around. Now that there is a genuine possibility that SF could be in government the dynamics will change. They’ll gain some supporters as a result, the other parties will do the same to ensure they won’t get in, others will voter for the first time in years because it might not turn out they want it, the economy will be different etc… The one thing you can bet on is that it won’t be the same.

AndrewJRenko

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119548976#Comment_119548976

You’re right that we don’t need dramatic questions seeking headline responses about who’s not getting into bed with who.

Press absolutely should be asking ALL parties about what kinds of compromises they’re prepared to tolerate to get into government, so voters can judge accordingly.

Podge_irl

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119565158#Comment_119565158

Press absolutely should be asking ALL parties about what kinds of compromises they’re prepared to tolerate to get into government, so voters can judge accordingly.

No one can answer that question honestly prior to an election in reality though. It depends a massive amount on how the results play out.

brokenangel

I have no idea why any party would join SF. As we have seen with SF in North and when they had any control in Ireland in local government they are fantastic at pointing the finger.

FG have already made the decision and I think it is right to say, let them off we will go into opposition. They won't change the next election either.

FF should do the same, let them off. Otherwise if they join it will just be SF trying to throw them under the bus at every turn and that will happen when you see the TD's that SF have and none of them with any experience.

FF would be better off long term getting away from these coalitions, let the rest off with it. Especially if FF have a new leader and has a long term plan, MM wanted to get the Taoiseach job and pushed a short term view. A new leader in all probability will be in place and could say I will hold on till next election.

Like in reality Leo is 43, 10 years younger than MLM so he can play the waiting game even after the next election.

I said it in 2020 that it would have been better if SF went into government then for FF and FG because by this stage now they would be thrown out, or totally crippled with people calling for an election. But SF knew this as well.

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119565202#Comment_119565202

Not sure what the answer is. I agree it is a difficult one when you are campaigning against another party, to be asked would you coalesce with them.

But one sure thing, it will be asked. People will want to know if they are voting for the same thing again or not.

Brucie Bonus

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119565068#Comment_119565068

Some fair points but the drift seems to be towards a move away from the traditional. I think FF and SF will get much the same support, FF may be pipped by SF. If the SD's, PBP and Labour gain any traction it could open up more options.

Jim2007

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119566491#Comment_119566491

After 2007 FF was finished, would never be elected again etc..... and where are they now?

If SF, SD, PBP etc do manage to reach an agreement it won't last more than a couple of months at best, the egos, the dogma and the promises etc... will cause them to fall apart quickly.

Brucie Bonus

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119566600#Comment_119566600

I think most of them have too many redline issues. Thats where there'll be trouble. That said pulling a labour by becoming more FG than FG wouldn't work out either. FF/FG being very similar helped them both but the results aren't exactly stellar. I could see SF/PBP having a go with others. Neither are workers party or the PD's.

cuttingtimber22

Once Varadkar is Taoiseach, FF will start to differentiate themselves from FG - and perhaps stir things a little but it will be the Greens who bring down the Government (I think Spring next year). SF will do well but there will be a three way tie with FF, FG and themselves. FG and FF will go into Govt again together….

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119567286#Comment_119567286

FF have to find out who they are themselves before they can differentiate themselves from anybody.

Martin has moved them far from their roots and recent exposures have shown that the party they became under Haughey and Ahern is still there to drag them down.

I don't think the electorate is going to stand for it if many more of them get exposed.

Loafing Oaf

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119567286#Comment_119567286

(I think Spring next year). SF will do well but there will be a three way tie with FF, FG and themselves.

Do you mind if I quote this in the immediate aftermath of the next GE. IMO it's more likely to be spring 2025 than spring next year but should be still worth doing...

agoodusername

FG won 76 of 166 seats in 2011 with 36% of the vote, roughly where SF have been polling at recently. Would it be a stretch to say that if they got somewhere between 37-40% that they'd only need one of the smaller parties, or would transfers kill that possibility?

I'd be curious to hear of what posters feel will be the impact of the 10-20 extra seats, and if it will help any party in particular?

Brucie Bonus

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119567847#Comment_119567847

In 2011 FG came in on a wave of not being FF, after FF were the biggest disaster we'd ever seen. They've been disappointing to say the least and losing seats. I can't see them doing better than the last election. I've a feeling we'll get much the same result we did last time.

Jim2007

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119567241#Comment_119567241

Generally speaking governments with a small majority work out best in most countries. They have to pay attention and work hard to maintain it, where as big majorities and first timers get the idea that they have mandates to go off and to all kinds of crap.

I could not see say someone like Paul Murphy surviving a month in government, he is almost honor bound to do something that will cause division among the parties.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119567847#Comment_119567847

My own constituency is to get an extra seat,going from 4 to 5,it being a v.diverse with both a city and v.rural areas,

the local SF member was returned with twice the quota last time.....they are supposedly planning on running 3 here next time, but can't see it happening,I think they' ll get 2 and pull in a pbp with em instead,one highly competent independent here aswell already,leaving 1 seat up for fight....likely to return present FF junior minister for mental health

brokenangel

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119567847#Comment_119567847

Everything is based on polling at the moment which is questionable to say the least. First off we have seen SF in the "just tell everyone what they want" stage. As one TD said "whatever way the wind blows, Sinn Fein goes". Of course most people don't recognise this as it comes over a period of time and the casual voter doesn't care.

The big change will be when parties are in election mode and a manifesto is released. The SF manifesto will be pulled apart by everyone in the media, along with the FF, FG, Greens one.

At that stage if they stick with just the current flip flopping it will be pulled to pieces. Nothing add's up and no coherent message at all. They will lose votes then because a lot of people will vote based on manifesto's etc.

The last election, was it really pulled apart? after the local election SF was so far back, they themselves thought it was going to be a whitewash. The scrutiny will be on this next election. Personally I think the wheels could come off when they try to put down a point of view which add's up. They have shown nothing yet to say they are capable of doing that

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119568071#Comment_119568071

I'm no particular fan of Murphy, but surely you could say the same about a few in FF FG, I mean by that, I seem to remember a few getting in trouble very quickly when new in Government - my own TD Heather Humphries being one - Jim McDaid another. Barry Cowen wasn't long getting himself in hot water too.

Sounds a bit 'snobby' if that's maybe not the entirely correct word.

It would be interesting to see some of these TD's capabilities IMO when cast in roles were they can do something.

*P.S. Never knew Paul was a nephew of the former RTE newsreader Michael Murphy. Every day's a school day.

Itssoeasy

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119568379#Comment_119568379

If I was SF though after the next election I wouldn’t be looking to PBP and other of their friends as when there was the nomination of Taoiseach in 2020, I have this memory of I think RBB saying they would vote for Mary Lou McDonald but I found the words and the tone very unnecessary from PBP. My point is if SF are in a position to go into government next time and they want to it last any length of time, then go a different route.

Jim2007

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119568379#Comment_119568379

Paul Murphy is a great man in a protest, but asking him to compromise and work with people he does not agree with and he's about as useful as a chocolate teapot. SF failed to form a government last time around because the people they were talking to and their voters did not understand the art of compromise. FF & FG and their voters understand it very well. Without an outright majority I'd say that the chances of a SF government surviving 12 months is very doubtful their partners are likely to be too volatile.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119567286#Comment_119567286

The GP seem to be the only ones with a legislative plan and seem to be working through it so no, I can't see them walking away. They've too much left to do

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119568453#Comment_119568453

Would you not agree that the art of forming coalitions is a learned one, as well as the art of making it last?

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119568504#Comment_119568504

This is a prime example of learning the art. The Greens haven't, their insistence will lead to them being decimated at the next GE and another rebuild process for them.

They really need to look closely at playing a long game. Repetitive crash and burns really doesn't help them to achieve their visions.

astrofool

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119568553#Comment_119568553

The Greens aren't after a majority though, as long as their policies get implemented, either by themselves or another party sticking a green label on, they're doing what they intended. I imagine they fully understand what happens to a junior government partner and will join the next coalition that they have the numbers for in the future as part of their boom/bust cycle. They have had a bit of a lefty/centrist split this time but that will sort itself out naturally when they're out of government again.

Brussels Sprout

I said it in 2020 that it would have been better if SF went into government then for FF and FG because by this stage now they would be thrown out, or totally crippled with people calling for an election. But SF knew this as well.

SF didn't make a tactical decision to stay out of government. It was literally impossible for them to get to 80 seats given that FF and FG had ruled going into coalition talks with them. SF did hold coalition talks with a few of the smaller parties but it was basically a charade played out for the cameras. The dogs in the street knew that they couldn't cobble together the numbers.

Once Varadkar is Taoiseach, FF will start to differentiate themselves from FG - and perhaps stir things a little but it will be the Greens who bring down the Government (I think Spring next year). SF will do well but there will be a three way tie with FF, FG and themselves. FG and FF will go into Govt again together….

Why would the Greens bring down the government next year? The longer they stay in the more influence they can have on government policy. The longer this government goes the more cycle lanes and greenways can be built all over the country (ie something broadly popular and tangible that they can point to come the next election). Also, bar a meteoric rise in the polls the majority of their new TDs will likely lose their seats - so they'd need a major bone of contention for them to vote for their own demise.

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119568779#Comment_119568779

Just commenting on it as a strategy, it just seems crazy to me.They face the prospect of having no influence for the next four years after the next GE and a lot fewer TD's.

SF's long game strategy seems better, build a power base and stay out of governments you don't have enough clout in to avoid being the fallguy/gals.

A hallmark of how politics - coalition is done here.

Podge_irl

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119568814#Comment_119568814

The Green Party are getting their policies implemented and so far SF are not.

Nor do I think the GP are under any illusions about ever being a primary govt party so this is as good as it gets.

astrofool

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119568814#Comment_119568814

SF are trying to build themselves into a mainstream party that is either the main opposition or in power. The Greens have a different set of goals around the environment and realise they don't need to be in power themselves to get it implemented (though better if they are), they'll never have a Taoiseach, but nor are they (realistically) trying to.

With their policies, the earlier they are implemented, the better, so they can't sit in opposition forever either or they lose their raison d'etre.

AndrewJRenko

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119565202#Comment_119565202

We're letting the political parties off lightly if we accept those answers. Coalitions are here to stay, and it's not unreasonable for parties to set out their stall at least in terms of basic principles and bottom lines beforehand. The traditional 'party manifesto' has very little value in the environment where coalitions of near equals are likely or inevitable.

Podge_irl

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119568886#Comment_119568886

I completely disagree.

We elect TDs to use their own judgement. Having stated positions on who you will go into coalition with and what policies you will or will not sacrifice is both impractical (what you will be able to implement with 20TDs vs 10 is completely different, and the board completely changes depending on who you are negotiating with) and anathema to the very concept of representative democracy that we have.

These questions are little more than pre-emptive "gotcha" questions looking for a soundbite to throw back in people's faces later on and are degrading to the political system.

AndrewJRenko

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119568814#Comment_119568814

As a tactical strategy, it probably is the best thing for the party, but it's a bit of a cowardly tactic - putting party strategy before the country.

Itssoeasy

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119568543#Comment_119568543

It’s not SF I’d worry about in coalition it’s the other partners. Making it last is obviously the gaol Francie but even with the best will in the world from SF, PBP and others like them would probably throw a wobbler over something unbelievably small and trivial.

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119568869#Comment_119568869

That's my point.

Their 'raison d'etre' will have to sit on the sidelines for 4 yrs or longer and the Greens would have you believe we are in an emergency. Why commit hari kari if it is that much of an emegency?

Doesn't seem very astute to me. Surely their goal, given that we are probably not going to see a majority government for a lot of election cycles, would be to be in every coalition government in some form?

Instead by being too zealous they commit Hari Kari habitually. They insist on huge structural changes that just scares people instead of an incremental approach that people can go along with.

As a contrast, the SF strategy looks to be the smarter one re: longevity as a real contender for power. It was discused on Brendan O'Connor this morning in relation to FG FF strategy, with a commentator (not sure of the name) was making the point that by colescing FF FG have given the electorate no other choice but SF as an alternative.

The real concern for SF I would imagine is taking power and performing in a way that doesn't rule them out as an alternative for a long time.

Podge_irl

Their 'raison d'etre' will have to sit on the sidelines for 4 yrs or longer and the Greens would have you believe we are in an emergency. Why commit hari kari if it is that much of an emegency?

If its an emergency how on earth could you justify not going into government!? Getting into power, pushing through at least some of your agenda and taking the political hit is, if anything, the far more honourable and effective approach.

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119569046#Comment_119569046

We are talking 'politics' here and success in politics to be exact.

It may very well be an ' honourable and effective approach' (I don't believe it is either of those btw) but is it good 'politics'?

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119569046#Comment_119569046

This is same sh1te FG used sell labour with a few generations,when in reality they want a lame duck party to prop em up in power

There's no reason the greens could not get to 30 or so TDs,and be in a place to actually implement their policies,because what they are doing now,is along long way off what was in their 2020 manifesto,and it's effectively policies that ffg allow,but openly undermine

If their in coalition,they should have an equal set of policies being implemented to its partners

Podge_irl

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119569111#Comment_119569111

If their in coalition,they should have an equal set of policies being implemented to its partners

They have a third of the number of TDs. That is a silly assertion.

Podge_irl

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119569065#Comment_119569065

Well are we talking politics or are we talking addressing what they (and many others) consider an existential emergency? You said that if it is such an emergency how can they countenance ending up in the political wilderness for a number of years after being in government - but I could equally argue that remaining in opposition while faced with such an emergency is political cowardice.

astrofool

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119569035#Comment_119569035

GP will be no less vulnerable in a coalition with SF than a coalition with FG or FF, I'd argue more so with SF given it could be their first time in power and there will be a lot of process issues to take flak over (should have consulted this person, bill was missing such detail, tender process wasn't ran correctly etc.).

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119569111#Comment_119569111

But again, that's not what GP is after, if they are successful, their policies are adopted by bigger parties and they don't need to exist, they are not after power for powers sake, they're not (really) interested in a United Ireland or taxing wealth or building a socialist/capitalist society, their policies are whatever benefits the environment the most and are generally (not always as we see with things like LNG and nuclear) pragmatic about how it's achieved without any grudges to hinder that.

If it looked like the GP was gaining popularity, even to 10-15 TD, most of their policies would be adopted by bigger parties, as their policies are not as left/centre/right as others and can be tacked on by anyone (barring the extremes).

Either way, if they get the numbers, they're as likely to go in with SF as they are with FG or FF, they may expect more "give" from SF though on the programme for government.

The bigger question is which "redlines" SF will negotiate on to form a coalition.

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119569325#Comment_119569325

Boils down to what we think Ireland can do, to practically to stall the crisis the world is in, I suppose and that's a different topic.