I Love Punting , Providing Selections & Chatting Gibberish ; & I Intend To Do So On Hyah

hayrabit

one more "Thursday Thought"

5,25 worth a look at an' all

between t'two Loughnane's, they've three of the eight declared for this 7f Class5 - including Mark's only one, the early ~6/4 fav Triggered

Dixon has two - one of which was in t'same ownership as t'other right up until latest run.

plenty of solid CD performers in this lineup

early paper jolly, Triggered ~ 6/4 , looks fair short here. lto win was at Chelmsford, but different kettle here

pace angles aplenty as well

Ikkari is a lightly race 4yo, and ran well on her only course outing -which were also a course/distance one- when she ran here almost bang on a year ago

am trying to make a case for the outsider of the field, and one of Scott Dixon's two, Poet ~25s, to run a good race here. lowly enough rated to go in a Class6, yet tackles Class5 (albeit this being the only 7f race on card) - to carry less weight perhaps? very little chance on form, but is plummeting down ratings and is one of a few what could potentially dictate fractions should it suit him (or moreso: "connections" 😋), and will have very little weight on his back here to help facilitate same

Plumette, drawn in box one, is not one what's guaranteed to lead - or even try to. Dixon's are drawn in boxes two and three, and tho Poet has broken poorly and/or been held up latterly, he has been forwards in his races before

very interesting indeed, the lowdrawn Dixon horses' angle, for t'lucky 😋 Wolverhampton last

possibly Poet can bust the lids and his stablemate be right after(behind) him, thus acting as a 'blocker' / 'baulker' of sorts

interesting race

"Thursday Thoughts" could be interesting as well - going forward, throughout these Summer months 😊

hayrabit

chance one for today, matees 😂

Ayr - Good-good to firm in places

5.30 1m Class6 Apprentice hcap

go with a tentative pick here to begin with

ESTICKY END 10/1 EW

Drawn in box 7, this one, along with Shine On Brendan and Big Dream, are likely leaders.

pick is twice a winner over a mile on good ground, and has also won twice in May of last year. has an absence to overcome, but that didn't stop selection from winning fto last year at Beverley

horse is far from reliable, and flopped over CD on most recent outing when finishing last of six last July. horse tried making all then in a small field; race was ran in a slow time, so it was windy then perhaps, and along with that, possibly being all alone up front tired him out

Gianluca Sanna is experienced apprentice what knows how to ride winners. have never heard of three of these jockeys; Archie Young , S R Markey & Curtis Wilson-ruddock be those jockeys, and jury has to be out as to whether they're capable pilots. also, the jockey of selection is only one of these what's ridden a winner at course

Cosa Sara ~7/1 has forgotten more about winning over course and distance on top o' t'ground than most of these'll ever know, and as far as winning CD Apprentice Handicaps doth go, this one has two wins to her 5yo Marish name: she won "Watch on Racing TV Apprentce Hcap" in April '22 , and prevailed also in the equally august "Luxury Staycations At Western House Hotel Apprentice Handicap" , when beating the 57-rated Bulls Aye last month in a thrilla

possibly be a prize or summat for winning a hape o' Ayr Apptce Hcaps - who knows? horse, Cosa Sara, looks overpriced to me (that's w/o taking inexperienced jockey booking into account) , and would probably be closer to a 4/1 poke were a more well known pilot atop - not yet ruling out this one as a second pick, howevs. is also very versatile as regards riding style, so can be put wherever jockey wants.

'Green Shoots' on overall jockey score, so, being as we take them in to serious consideration and indeed almost as much as what's gi'en to les horsey's form, such is da kind o' race it is 😁

think i've meself convinced to back COSA SARA 7/1 WIN as second pick. infacta, Jim Goldie, who trains Cosa Sara, also has one of t'likely pacesetters in Shine On Brendan, and instructions might be try make all on topweight and possibly as well, for Cosa to be held up oot back fo' tae poonce late 'nd keep spoils at home in bohnnie Scoteland, ae 👁️‍🗨️

mebbe chance a conny rev/f'cst an' all

gl

j@utis

Hi there, appearantly it's Paul Mulrennan's and Jim Goldie's day at Ayr today. All Goldie's runners are being hammered in the market... One interesting fact that Paul has opted to ride Innse Gall in 5pm instead of Goldie's horse.

j@utis

e.g. Yaaser in 4pm, must be a sure sure thing :D

j@utis

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120633794#Comment_120633794

Cosa Sara is a non-goer now, you gotta pick another possible winner. I suggest Engles Rock on the basis that other rookie riders will overrace their mounts and set this race up for the held up horse like Engles Rock. W Pyle(3) rode a winner in Ayr yesterday, so he must be all pumped up now to double his tally.

j@utis

In the first in Yarmooth my pen landed on Daaaaris 3/1 but I noticed that he was available 10/3 earlier, so I left backing him for later with a hope of a drift and now he's 11/4, ah bugger, dunno now take it or leave it...

j@utis

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120635111#Comment_120635111

And I didn't and for the better, NH horse steals the price from the front.

hayrabit

went for Mason/Goldie combo, SOPHIESTICATE 14s EW, in 5,oc Ayr

a CD winner on Good-good to soft. hope to be in with a chance, and horse not w/o a squeak if replicating penultimate cd outing - minus the racing keenly early doors bit

gl

hayrabit

was there with every chance but Sophiesticate not good enough

the topweight and lto CD winner, Morning Sun, prevails

hayrabit

7.10 Kempton

two win picks here: GLORY SKY 7/2 , BEAUEN ARROWS 5/1

Beauen Arrows has obvious claims, and has gone close a couple of times over CD, is one of only two 4yo's here,,, early double figures prices long gone :(

not liking the skimpy and drifting 13/8 fav, Kitten Gloves - think 7f is a stamina stretcher here

g'l

might try put up short in-running lays on both t'picks; both of these being likely leaders, they could go off together hammer 'n' tongs, or one could try make all on their own only to be nabbed late

j@utis

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120635102#Comment_120635102

Last lol, no good. :lack of sleep: and lack of interest in the game today.

hayrabit

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120633794#Comment_120633794

nr Cosa Sara , Esticky End w/drawn :(

funny old race - Bulls Aye tears off in front, gets nabbed in shadow o' post after trading @ 1.01 in running,, Alex Jary, an experienced apprentice, wins from a confident hold-up ride

chance GATS AND CO ~ 11/4 WIN in 6,20 Southwell. might try make all in this 4 runner 2-horse race 😃

j@utis

@hayrabit I'm surprised you didn't talked up Mountbatten again today (4:00 Ayr), that bugger won again.

hayrabit

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120636282#Comment_120636282

hiya j@u 😊

i didn't know he were going missus 😖

had a squizz last nighttee , but just looked straight past @Mountbatten's race :(

didn't know he were running til i saw the results,,, think he were 7/4 early on, and was up in trip and running on better ground - jury has to be out as regards would i have backed him at, say, 3s or bigger, when he started drifting? deffo wouldn't have chanced him @2s or so - having just had look at his form previous

perhaps not 🙂



looks(?) like he needs to lead over a mile in order to win , so perhaps won't be rushing to back him in near future

hope ur having a good day at summat or other- don't need be punting, ms j@utissseeeee 😁

hayrabit

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120636276#Comment_120636276

Gats And Co tries make all but falls short and finishes second,, fav wins easy enough - writing were on wall for selection 2 out, and fav always looked like he had me pick covered :(

j@utis

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120636312#Comment_120636312

Mountbatten opened 4/1, won 9/2, I noticed him entered during my morning card "study" but me in brain freeze all day, I couldn't muster enough of energy to assess his chances in a tricky class 4 event.

hayrabit

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120636345#Comment_120636345

aye, mebbe, but he were about 7/4 this morning, and prolly similar price last night

didn't notice him today after me surfaced, as me no puntee today until late in the 'arvo' 😛

i tell meself i wouldn't have backed @Mountbatten, but me's happy anyroad, ms j@utis, u noticed/remembered that horse from us mentioning him ~2/3wks previous 😂

:)))))

j@utis

Look @7:40 Kempton - Satin Snake hasn't finished out of frame over CD. But I can bet you now if I'm to back him tonight, he won't reach the frame

😂

hayrabit

Saeed Manana's SHADES OF SUMMER 10/1 WIN/EW will do us here. can't fault filly's lto Chelmsford form

not liking @Satin Snake, at least not from the nine box anyroad. don't know how Keatley gets away with practically having same colours/design as JP 😓

another angle could be ye "Showcasing" one - always think (for some strange reason possibly) that his progeny don't like 7fs, so will chance plce-lay on the ~5/6 fav Solar Orbiter, @ ~ 1/4. longish layoff, and can't fault his two wins from just the two runs - at Kempton and Ncs, but both them victories were over 6fs.. worth tekkin on, imo, for da lolz and hopefully for t'coin an' all !

only three i looked at.. i blame @j@utiseeeeee for drawing us attention to this race if me have no joye 🤣😂🙂

:)

j@utis

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120636167#Comment_120636167

Good call on Glory Sky, never in doubt!

hayrabit

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120636167#Comment_120636167

Glory Sky wins easy :)

Beauen Arrows ran okay for a while from forward position, and does alright to finish third,, a veritable cliff horse this one - might fare better in CD Class6 (Class5 today) from a good draw with little else pace on,, rated 56 and might(?) drop 1lb or 2 for this run - either way, looks lowly enough rated for basement grade

#neverrarelyhaveenufonawinner 🙂

hayrabit

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120636453#Comment_120636453

ta v much j - were a procession tbs !

winna winna 😁

hayrabit

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120636442#Comment_120636442

no joy there - pick fades and jolly finishes well inside places, in second spot :(

hayrabit

BARENBOIM will do me at 6/1 in 8,10 K for the WINNNN ! 😁

j@utis

Yup, as I said, Satin Snake out of frame 6th 🤣 eventual winner with no course form, not easy to find.

hayrabit

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120636585#Comment_120636585

won easy last time he ran at t'course (December) carrying topweight in a grade lower when tackling slightly shorter trip there, and on the same Standard/Slow Going

race far to tricky for to look at 'em all in depth, imo

gluck

hayrabit

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120636585#Comment_120636585

out the back and were NEVER put into race at all 😒

keep eye out for nto, as pds horse didn't give true showing there 😪😬

had a look at winner, Cemhaan, but wasn't convinced - only hoses up at a *massive(ish) price 😴 *not really tho; someone 'knew' as horse was punted into 8/1 from an opening show of 12s

8,40 luuks crap race - pen landed on a complete 'hit and hope' pick here: JUNOESQUE 22/1 WIN. no logic or reasoning, apart from: can win at trip / lightly raced overall on AW in times recent ; probably has to lead to win

feckin lotto

#2moro'sanudderday

🙂

j@utis

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120633357#Comment_120633357

Zeno looks like 2nd best and might be worth sticking with in "no hot fav" market.

j@utis

I'm gonna go with a "long" shot Huscari 10/1 in 4:20W, only a 4yo, so there might be some unlocked potential left...

j@utis

I can't solve that 5:25 in Wolves, markets suggests that it's between two Loughnanes, Plumette has a better course record but by the looks of it mark of 70 is as good as she can get and she'll need all the luck to win again off that OR. Triggered has been rated higher in his heyday but he's recorded most of his successes in class 6 and hasn't won on tapeta yet... So, with tons of negatives against two market leaders we gotta look elsewhere and there's almost nothing to choose from, maybe a bottom weight Tom T? Nah...