I Love Punting , Providing Selections & Chatting Gibberish ; & I Intend To Do So On Hyah

Incoming, yet thoroughly dee zerr vedd 😊

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119078848#Comment_119078848

David O'Meara's TAMASKA 6/1 (who looks a v good price as things stand) will not want it any worse than good, but has an excellent winning chance otherwise, at the prices.

BOOOOOOOOOOOOMMMMMMMMMM!!!!!!! 😁 😁 Half the flamin track !! 😂

4th the below come, so BOOM 😁

If the going is the same when racing comes around, will consider Bethell's Tashkeer 10/3 for the win (3 places on machines) for a place lay;

Call an odd one right me 🙂 😃

j@utis

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119081173#Comment_119081173

Only seeing this now, went off doing other thing, my bad. Two Tempting was the other one in my notebook, but I went with longer odds one cause it was more tempting than too tempting 🤣

j@utis

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119081039#Comment_119081039

Shortie saved the day again but no extras that'd keep us going.

j@utis

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119081376#Comment_119081376

Good call, there leffe, I wished I was on!

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119081962#Comment_119081962

Ta v much j@u :)

WD on your winner an all j@u 😊 fool i was for disparaging it 😋

just in meself now,, raining a lot,, anyhoo - hope ya have a good evening :D

am betting no moe today, save for 'the last dance for me get out stakes' - logic being - if i lose there be no following races to chase losses; am not expecting to lose, as will hope to catch winner here, but i'll still have summit to look forward to as night dawns on my desultory existence

8.30 Kem

sticking to the top of betting here; looked at them all, and there's a few like to get on with it (can't recall which they are, but they include some drawn wide and forward slash and or some outsiders) so am thinkin it'll pan out as a fair-truely ran affair

These'll do me:

ILHABELA FACT , SAVOY BROWN , YORKTOWN

ew pokes the above,,

opposing this 'un

PLACATED 4/1 to get his nose in front under John Egan is young and has only had the noine runs - nonetheless, he's towards top of betting, and is encumbered by a wide draw in 10,, suppose he can go on or be held up (ie 'options') but looks short enough, so will likely go place-lay for the top 4 possy ere @ ~ 1.8 :)

gd luck

No joy as far as 'winning' goes there in t'last at Kempton; some Irish/(ex-Irish?) horse saw plenty of coin and won.. had a look and horse is I Doubt That - hard to find on first English run, based on his exploits over here on turf 😏

that's Ray Singh for ya - wonder if there's any chaps what go by that name in these parts ? 😁

Thursday 19th May

early thoughts on one here

4.55 Chelmsford

can't rule out the fav Monsieur Fantaisie 2/1 (thought he'd be bigger) here. Is unexposed at the track and trip, and has been running well over 6fs as of late; including a win and a couple of places at the course at that 6f trip, and some good placed efforts elsewhere,, all them good runs came at 6, or close to 6furlongs,, can't be having him at the prices.. 7f a more specialist trip - glad he's so short as makes him easy to discount

A lot of pace on, and it looks as if the race will be ran to suit the former C&D winner DORS TOYBOY , who has a good draw in the 5 box. nowt wrong with the 13/2 on offer,, has only the one win from all his 26 runs, but usually gives a fair account here, but hasn't always had the best of draws,, he came 2nd in Jan at CD from out the two box, so is capable, and his kind draw, along with price, gives him NB claims.. Is the only 'grey' in the race, so should be eezee 2 spot, but there's a few 'bays' innit as well, and apparently they're similar. Which brings about an 'off topic' thought - "If you're average Joe/josephine cannae tell the difference between horses/cattle etc, do it make them 'speciesist' " don't right lee know so i don't, meself, but i'll know be flaggelating meself in front a woke mob on account o me ignorance on that topic 😫

Dark Design merits a mention, with two of his 5, in total, wins, coming at the course over 1m, and 6furlongs,,, has also won three times at a mile when in Ireland,, Looks unexposed over in blighty, but did have two goes over 7f at Wolves, and on both those times he finished third,, has enough ??'s against him regards this specialist trip, so easy enough to draw a line thru him @ 11/4.

ELLIE PIPER 33s gen is one of two Robyn Brisland has here, and Newmarket trainer's charge certainly jumps off t'page based on her name 😋 not exactly enough to go on, so had to find a reason of sorts to justify putting her down as a pick,,, reason is: she wasn't too far away at Lingfield over 7 in January, when was slow away,, she has a tendency to race keen, and 'pulled hard' lto at Kempton, which couldn't of helped,, Is only her third run in a hcap - not much to go on as regards her sire, but Acclamation did have a 2nd placed finisher over CD about 2 weeks ago,,, I've convinced meself to do a lil ew on her here.

Axel Jacklin has a poor draw to overcome, and Street Poet likely wants a mile here, or else over the trip but at Wolves.. just to give those two towards top of market a mention.. unlikely either of them two will be involved, but don't take my word for it.. To paraphrase Alex Jones (the Texan bloke, not the BBC homer 😊) :"Do your own research" 😂 Well dat's not really 'paraphrasing' is it, as that's pretty much verbatim what he used to say, before he gt kicked off YT,,,, yep, don't go against t' ''narrative'' Royal Heart's another what don't get blood pumping - even with plum draw, I'm unable to make any sort of a case for 'im

flukk it, I'll do another 'pagejumper' here as well, each way. VIVENCY 9/1,, tis a combo of her name/form figures(granted, they're poor enough)/position in hcap(towards top of) that makes her eyecatching here, in t'pagejumping regard; she's plummeting down weights since winning at 7 on the Standard/Slow at Kempton in January of last year. Has ran okayish at times recently w/o troubling t'judge, but if she's there or thereabouts at the end, then if anyone can haul her across t'line, it's (the very much in form) Connor Beasley - very strong in t'finish - reminds me of a young Callan - perhaps Vivency can better go well on the Tapeta surface, but her price is not ungenerous I feel.

Should Dors Toyboy win, and I posit he might, imma gonna try to predict what them folks on Racing TV (don't have it, but anyroad) might will say after the race; especially the chap what speaks strange (youngish bloke - think Dixon is his name) and that is: "Has had a very poor return/strike rate with the ability he has [at this sort of level], but conditions haven't always suited - he's had plenty of pace on to chase, so didn't need to mek his ooohnn running, a good draw in five, so was able to 'stride out' from just off t'pace"

Yeah, well 'Dixon' or whomsoever of yous is gonnar be at Essex venue, I'm saying it now! Alroight?? 😂

Good Night and Good Luck Comrades

😊

Konny Rool

Hi all :)

Am enjoying reading the thread. Some very good picks today/yesterday now 😃 and I'm liking @leffesem's comedy too ! A few good 'shorties' landed as well, with Ms j@utis nabbing a nice "mid-range" shorty at Ayr 😊 and leffesem chipped in with a few winning losing ones too ! 🤣

In keeping with short ones I will chance a treble for Sandown:

6.45 BRAYDEN STAR 4/6 Surely he only has to repeat his lto run Salisbury to succeed here

7.15 REACH FOR THE MOON 13/8 Has been very good over 7furlongs - will trust he's just as successful over a mile. Last time at Donny he tried to make all over 7furlongs and only managed second place. The going was soft enough then though. We'll hope the going is good so as to give him and all the picks a live chance later. L Dettori is on board too 😊

7.45 FRANCESCO CLEMENTE 4/5 He has only had the one run, which saw him win over a mile at Newmarket. Breeding suggests he'll be better over the 10furlong trip today. Hup Frankie !!

treble pays the princely (do they have royalty in China leff? Prince Lee 😂) sum of 55/8 in fractional odds - or 6.875/1 in decimal.

Best of luck to us all 😊

Have not managed to put in a good shift but the top two posters have me covered for good and a goodly amount of picks. I shall have another go concerning a short one - but am going to take him on 🤣

I'm so happy I think I've found a 'takeonable' one of WPMs - I wonder does Willie send PMs to his mates and bookies and give them the 'dope' (the American slang dope and not the intoxicating/illegal dope) on how his will go. Would not be surprised. I'm of the belief that crookery abounds in this sport.

The race:

6.25 Tipperary

The going here is good, as it will benefit my pick I hope. Will hope also that it does not rain, as I think that will hinder my pick's chance in this. But first onto my 'lay' pick:

LA PRIMA DONNA 1/3 This is a shockingly short price (but good for me 😃) If a smalltime trainer had this horse in this race with the same form figures I think it could be 2 or 3 to 1 or even bigger, but I don't know for sure. She (LPD) came 5th lto in a way better race than this evening's one. That was on yielding to soft ground at Punchestown. The going deteriorated all day then, but it was close to soft come race six, which was the one Willie's filly participated in. That is why I want not very much rain or no rain at all, so as for the Mullins horse to chance later on's almost similar trip, but on/over relatively unknown conditions, if ya get me.

She came a good 4th on relatively good ground the race before that over 2miles. That was another quality affair but, and the thinking here is: Will she stay the 2 1/2miles on good (if it stays good and hopefully it will) ground ? Likely the majority of the 'twelve angry men' would say "yes, she will" but as far as me personally is concerned, that jury is out.

More in the +column for opposers of the unjustly lowly priced favourite is the fact that the beast what sired her, Saint Des Saints, is known mainly for training chasers.

It's a poor race by all accounts and they say "the bigger the field, the bigger the certainty" - not always the case. I'm sure Donn McClean & Ruby will do a less than stellar job of swaying folks against the jolly. I can picture Ruby (off camera) rubbing his hands in glee before the off when the fav is remaining a solid 3s on - 2/7 shot.

Could well be she wins and Ruby will no doubt come out with his "A value loser is still a loser line" on many occasions.

What can win?

I looked at the top four in the betting and I'm liking the 2nd fav here - and this is why I especially want the going to remain good, as I think it will benefit my selection, which is:

EMILY ROEBLING 9/2 Not a very big priced second favourite against a long odds on jolly in a field of 15! Emily has decent form on soft and heavy going, which is the going upon which she's ran the majority of her races "under rules". Her daddy is the German Getaway (he's German and his name's Getaway) and a lot of his crop like to go on good ground. Emily has come third over 2 1/2miles when she ran on yielding/good to yielding ground at Cork in one of her few runs not on soft or heavy going, in Jan 2021. Not exactly savage form but it shows she can go very close on goodish ground. She came 3rd also in the second of her three PtPs, which was on good ground.

She's a late enough comer to the game at currently eight years of age is Emily Roebling. She was all of close to 7 years old when she ran her first bumper in Dec 2020. Perhaps connections think they have a "good one" on their hands and so have been "minding her" by running her on predominantly "soft" ground. Not a major trainer in the grand scheme of things is Gerard Kelleher, and the owner and breeder seem to be related (no relevance there - just an obbo) and they may not care how long it takes Emily to come good. Emily has possibly had other problems as well, not of the physical variety - her mother is Irish, her daddy's German, and her granny on her mammy's side is French - odds on her having had a crisis of identity are low enough, but we'll hope she's over that hump (am only surmising, I'm not "in the know" ) now and ready to show the good folk of Tipperary, and elsewhere, what she's capable of. 6/1 in the paper was Ems, but she's pretty much a 9/2 shot across the board.

Apart from Willie Mullins only horse in the race the rest of the field are trained by smalltime/relatively smalltime trainers; likely this is also contributing to the prohibitive price of LPD here. 'La' 'Prima' 'Donna' - hmm ;( .... don't need to be a psychologist to venture a guess that her short price might be that bit bigger had she a more ornery name. She's never won a hurdle race (only the four runs, but still,, ) I'm smelling a figurative rat and there's a stench emanating from that particular rodent 😒

not much liquidity on the exchanges and have laid Emily at approx 1.45 to lose a couple or three Euros. Backed Emily to win at about 8.0 (7/1) for a cupla Euro also.

Could well lose twice here, but it's a guessing game innit? If I'm not in then I can't win 😄

Once more - Good luck all !

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119083555#Comment_119083555

❤️ ❤️

Congratulations Konny Rool !! You have received 2 'likes' from leffesem 🙆

One for the 100th post 🎂

Another ❤️ for your post is given as the panel considered it of both comedic and informative merit 😁

WD

3.20 Wolves

"peaky blinders" nag on show

John Butler sends his Exceed And Excel ''peaky blinders'' colt Nationwide 10/11 here to take part in a Class 4 sprint over 6fs. 10 to flippin 11! Looks like a 'steal' as should sluice up on all known form - ie his last two runs, esp the last one over course and distance, similarly a Class 4. He has top weight to lump, but still, it's hard to get away from his lto run. On a/c of the trainer I cannot be having him; were he trained by a more 'respectable' trainer I reckon he'd be 4/7. I'm thinking the layers are offering the generous looking odds because 'they know' !! I can't be having a bar of him personally - looks like a trojan gift-horse this fellah 😒

Whether he wins or not, something has to come 2nd, and if all 8 go to post, then there's a 3rd plce on offer too for each way players.

OOH IS IT 12/1 ew will do me here representing the Dave Evans (would have a lot in common with Butler would David methinks) yard. Horse is a big price and has a squeak on ratings I believe. Would need to lie just behind the pace, and not go directly to the front, to have a chance of seeing out the 6f trip imo. Horses numbered 2, 3, & 7 are all likely frontrunners based on previous. Looking at some of Ooh Is It's winning form over the minimum at the track, when hitting the line well, can give him hope at a generous looking price.

HOLBACHE 28/1, one of two Tony Carroll has here, would be of an outside interest based on some of his turf runnings, but the layoff is a concern. That said, Carroll's other one Recon Mission may well be used as a pacemaker for his stablemate. Recon Mission could go well too, but I've convinced meself to have a small ew on Holbache also.

Very interesting race this regardless, and am overall happy enough with t'picks,, no NAP or NB amongst them, but there are grounds for optimism 😊

g'luck ye good folks o boards :)

j@utis

The more I look at that 4:55 Chelmsford the less likely I'm to back anything in it. Favorite Monsieur Fantaise and 2nd fav Dark Design have met before where DD beat MF, there was 7lb pull in between them in MF favour in that race, today is only 2lb that separates them in ratings. Doors Toyboy was behind DD on the other occasion when there was only 3lb in Door's Toyboy favor but today it's like 9lb pull.

I know Dark Design is lacking convincing form over 7f but he ran well after a short break and he's coming back here fresh again, unlike Street Poet and Door's Toyboy both had only 5 days to relax, btw Street Poet was ahead DT lto on the same terms, that adds another twist into the story 😅

j@utis

Do you want another good riddle to have a go at? Look at 5:00 Wolves - 10runners, 9 out 10 are price 10/1 or below 🤣

Konny Rool

@[Deleted User] thanks very much for them 2 likes - I'll keep them with me own !

I like your comedy too - it's "reet good" as you might say 😂

😓 I'm crying here for your Ellie leff. They backed her "intee" 9s leff, and they've only pulled her 😓 33s you had her at for 4.55 - a cruel cruel blow! Maybe she wanted to go to Tipperary to watch my Emily hack up !

I think Street Poet is solid place-lay material in 4.55 C; like leff says I think he needs a mile at Chelly, and it will (the pace) catch him out over 7furlongs here. He has a good pilot up in R Kingscote + good draw, but I've laid him for 3 and 4 places at 5/4 and 8/11 "anyroad" 🤣

j@utis

In 3:20 Wolves a case can be made for Yazaman too - he was once rate into 100s when 2yo, now tumbled down the weights and this is his only 2nd start in class 4 even off the lowest career mark, e/w chance.

5.00 Wolves

Here there be many C&D winners = very very tricky

Have plumped for DAHEER 9/2 as most or all of his (many) CD wins have been in Class4s; as well as that he is very versatile as to how he runs his races. Will do me for this, but 15mins was enough to look at this race,, could spend another several hours looking and still be none t'wiser

don't look an each way race to be - I'm calling the 5o'c Wolves a on the "nose job"

I'm not gonna bother with ratings and the like - ie who's giving or receiving x amount of pounds to whom,, will not lose sleep no matter who wins this one - as in life in general, I know me limitations 😴 😛

whatcha think yourself j@u ? You 'posed the problem' after all 😃

all the best 😊

3.40 Market Rasen

Was going down the card and thought I had two decent/reasonably priced win picks.. Then I saw the bottom two and they can't be ruled out here. A combination of going up in grade - Wake Up Early, and one pick too many picks - The Very Thing (good 2nd lto, but was an amateur race) makes me reassess my picks.

Instead of backing them win, I'm going small each way on the first two that caught me imagination - LADRONNE 9/2 and PARIS TEXAS 11/1.. If the ground was softer I'd definitely consider The Very Thing, but two picks is plenty enough here, where I could pick four, and perhaps, at best, get a sole placer.

It's a very tricky race and will give me a distraction for 7 and a bit minutes. WD if yis have a strong pick here.

😊 g'luck 😊

3.30 Wolves 3.30 Lingfield

A lowly seller "Claiming Stakes" affair

The only three I think have live/decent chancs are:

SPIRIT OF CIMARRON , SAY GRACE and SURREY TERRITORIES

wish I had looked at it earlier - ST was about 18/1 i think, and he'd have an excellent chance ....

😁 Scratch all that - race is at Lingfield and not Wolves; that changes things - win only on Surrey Territories 9/2

Konny Rool

tricky race alright leff - and it's on turf too; just to add more 'complexity' to the equation. Best of luck with ST there. Hard to make a case for anything. Even if the three you 'accidentally mentioned' ! 😁 finish all in the first three, I think one pick is more than enough in a race like that!

Meanwhile, had a look at Sandown - one's a non (okay I suppose) , but Subastar is also a non in Francesco Clemente's race = massive rule 4 :sademoji

Have laid La Prima Donna again for Tipperary race. Think that's about enough punting for today.

All the best to everyone "knocking about" 👁️‍🗨️

Konny Rool

And now I'll watch Wolverhampton 3.20 race featuring Nationwide with 'Bated Breath' (not the sire 😂) to see how it goes. I think 'poster no 1' was dead right to not be having a bar of him (the fav) - tho I do think he'll hack up.

Pretty sure Butler had a well fancied 6/5 (backed in from 9/4-2/1) shot on turf last week somewhere in a 6 or so horse race - 4th he come :mad Cannot trust that Butler - pretty sure he's of the same 'Parish' (as they say) as Barney (RIP) Curley , or they used to be in some sort of partnership.

Nice and sunny out 😊 Could help me Emily down in Tíobraid Árann later 😅

Best of luck with your picks in it leff and j@utis 😊

Konny Rool

No surprise to see Nationwide hose up in that 6f race at Wolves

I reckon you were right pi$$ed to see Ooh Is It setting "t'fractions" leff - had no chance doing that 😒 was annoyed me own self watching 😄

Would likely have made no difference whatsoever to how that race panned out, but for future reference:

"Words to the Wise" Any time Evans has a horse on the AW (with ostensibly little or no chance on form) and that horse happens to be drawn low; I've often seen them "burn the gallops" early on - which definitely spoils the race eg if you're on a hold-up one at, say Lingfield, likely it'll be too late to 'get a run' or there'll be a 'wall of horses' in front, come the 'taps turned on' stage 😏

liamtech

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119084959#Comment_119084959

Daheer has drifted nicely to 13/2!

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119085866#Comment_119085866

I think it's a very fair price that - in about as wide open as a 'wide open' race can be 😊

Best of luck if you're on liamtech !

liamtech

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119086086#Comment_119086086

thx - cheeky each way here - just for fun

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119086120#Comment_119086120

WD plumping for e/w- ya didn't lose anyway 🤣 8/1 alright,, be nicer if he won

'Stablemate' wins - I'm going to have a 'stewards' in my head liam 😊

liamtech

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119086157#Comment_119086157

hahaha

Well im up for the day myself so - il quit for today while im ahead (modestly ahead - shame he only placed as his SP went up to 8-1 like you said!)

fair play liam - nice to see someone ahead/up; far too nice (in the 'grand scheme of things' way) of a day to be losing, so ur best off quittin 😊

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119084813#Comment_119084813

Street Poet is solid place-lay material in 4.55 C

but I've laid him for 3 and 4 places at 5/4 and 8/11 "anyroad" 🤣

Unlucky there KR - only for Kingscote give him a great ride - he might have finished 4th; you'd have got something back.. You were right enough about him 'not being good enough' - ye went with your opinion and ya almost got it right!! Suppose you could always lay for t'win 😃 Scary enough proposition tho - be like backing a 2/11 shot, or close to it..

I think I've had enough myself for today !

Hope everyone's well and not losing much or better still - winning 😊

leff :D

j@utis

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119084959#Comment_119084959

I'm flat out at work, doing evening shift today, no fun, only browsing the results now on my break, some good insights here, well done lads.

Ta for stoppin by j@u ; your compliments is appreciated by us all 😊 We won't expect posters to be 'on hand' all t'time on here; too stressful that! - must tek note meself 😃

'Work' 😒 bah!! hope it's going ok anyroad :)

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119083555#Comment_119083555

6.45 BRAYDEN STAR - non-runner that one

7.15 REACH FOR THE MOON 13/8  - bummer there; was in front and looked like winning, until the last 100yds

Unlucky there KR :(

__________________________________________________

But first onto my 'lay' pick:

LA PRIMA DONNA 1/3 This is a shockingly short price (but good for me 😃)

Wins at 2/13 - I guess that one wasn't unexpected - worth a go tho nonetheless :) Your ER got 2nd, so a good call there,,

all the best folks -- tomorrow another day, but have no study done yet for it,, we'll see; may or mayn't leave it off,,

have some thoughts for one on Sat'dee, but that can wait

☺️