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Storm Franklin - Sunday 20th/Monday 21st Feb 2022

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  • 19-02-2022 7:26pm
    #1
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,888 Mod ✭✭✭✭


    Thought it might be worth starting a thread as the weather models have upgraded the wind strengths for Sunday and especially early Monday morning, Met Eireann gave Donegal an Orange warning today and will see if the models raise the wind speed predictions.

    Again a fast moving system which is very low at 955 hPa when the center is just S of Iceland and about 961hPa when the main center is off Scotland, looks like a second low with a very tight gradient is coming more into play producing the very strong winds later Sun night into Mon in the top third / half of the country.

    As said in the charts to +120hr thread surprised to see the GFS increase the wind speeds so much since the earlier runs, ECM not as strong in over Ireland away from the coast, will it follow suit.

    Exceptionally high seas also possibly leading to coastal flooding.

    After the milder start turning colder from the NW tomorrow with thunderstorm potential in the unstable airflow with wintry showers and hail possible.

    Looks to me like a particularly rough combination of weather elements tomorrow and especially towards night into early Monday morning.









    Post edited by DOCARCH on


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Comments

  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,747 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    In terms of cold we will have a fairly sudden drop in temperatures tomorrow evening followed by a sudden rise in temperatures by Monday morning so temporarily a few hours of cold weather. The GFS operational isn't really going for snow but many of the other GFS members are which could give brief dustings in places tomorrow night. Any snow that does fall will be melted by Monday morning.

    Another similar spell on Thursday but we may get 24 hours of cold weather out of that one.



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,909 ✭✭✭JanuarySnowstor


    The gfs operational is showing widespread snow showers Sunday evening @Gonzo




  • Registered Users Posts: 2,110 ✭✭✭piplip87


    Woke up this morning at 6 to a dog howling to get out in the snow. Was a fairly decent covering here until it started melting at 10ish.

    It done nothing but wet the appetite so hopefully we can get another shot over the next week or so.

    Virginia, County Cavan



  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,747 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    The GFS operational didn't look very convincing on Wetterzentrale but on Meteociel it does show showers getting across the country. I was looking at the 'new snow depth' and 'snow(png)' charts on wetterzentrale and the operational was 0.0 on those for some reason while most of the other models are between 2 and 12. There could be more snow potential with this than Eunice in the form of snow showers as it will be night time too, such a pity the window of opportunity is going to be very narrow indeed. The other gfs members are probably over doing the snow risk as this will be night time and showers generally die back to the coasts after dark.

    The ECM is far less convincing of snow with mostly dry conditions away from western and northern coasts.




  • Registered Users Posts: 6,800 ✭✭✭sporina


    in KM/HR - what wind speeds are considered light, moderate, strong, gales etc?



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  • Registered Users Posts: 545 ✭✭✭Crocodile Booze


    At least the secondary schools are already closed for mid term just in case there is even a slim chance of upgraded warnings. Therefore we won't have to tolerate the usual cranks moaning and storm-denying because it's not windy in their garden and the schools are closed.



  • Registered Users Posts: 16,665 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    The windy weather should help push showers inland, but I am not expecting anything, so hopefully like last night I will be pleasantly surprised



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,597 ✭✭✭corsav6


    Wet and wild out now here in Newport. Was calm most of the day but a random gust kicked things off about an hour ago. So we're looking at 36 hours of this and maybe worse.



  • Registered Users Posts: 5,178 ✭✭✭Widdensushi




  • Registered Users Posts: 6,914 ✭✭✭pauldry


    The sea could be crazy tomorrow. Remember 2013. That's when they invented those terms weather bombs. This Winter is like one of those really boring Summers we sometimes get where ya get a week of thunder and heat right at the end cept in Winter storms n snow come. We got very lucky yesterday bar the tragic exception. Hope this one is safe.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 6,914 ✭✭✭pauldry


    Re snow Sat24 showing snow Sunday night since about Thursday. Wetterzentrale shows more snow chances Thursday. Hope some places away from West and North get some. It truly is a joy. I was as excited as my 10 year old. She couldn't believe I was up before her at 715 and I couldn't believe it snowed the night after I stayed up all night waiting for it to snow.



  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,888 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    Donegal straying into Red warning territory I reckon, looks a very rough night in the NW.

    Very wet day and looks like plenty of wintry showers to follow the frontal rain.








    Killybegs Tide Times


    Tide Times

    UTC: 


    Hi/Lo Time Height


    Low 01:49 0.62m

    High 08:01 4.10m

    Low 14:11 0.52m

    High 20:29 3.90m

    NOT TO BE USED FOR NAVIGATION



  • Registered Users Posts: 551 ✭✭✭Wine Goddess


    So these winds have been forecast for here for the last 5 days I thought it was over the top but it looks like it is very accurate. Anyone know what model XCWeather uses?

    They also have snow forecast for Thursday morning! Fingers crossed for that!



  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,888 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    WRF 18Z





  • Registered Users Posts: 859 ✭✭✭SnowyMuckish


    Thanks Meteorite for keeping us updated!



  • Posts: 257 ✭✭ [Deleted User]


    I'm in Donegal and still pregnant! Dreading the drive if labour kicks in, in that Orange/Red warning window. My nerves 🥴

    Thanks too for giving us these invaluable updates Meteorite 😀



  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,888 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    Potentially more disruption from this compared to Eunice , much longer duration strong winds over more of the country and the ground is getting very saturated now and things are getting loosened up.

    Strongest winds tomorrow night into Mon morning. Certainly high end yellow but add all that rain with it would wonder are we getting into more widespread Orange especially in the N half of the country ?? Will see.








  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,888 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    You would never go with Franklin would you 😅


    Take care and the very best!



  • Registered Users Posts: 10,087 ✭✭✭✭Oscar Bravo


    A chance of gusts up to 60 knots at Knock after midnight. Stormy one ahead for the west and north west

    BECMG 2022/2024 30030G50KT 

    PROB30 TEMPO 2100/2105 30035G60KT 



  • Registered Users Posts: 5,522 ✭✭✭obi604


    East Galway - Felt like an actual storm overnight, way windier than Eunice the other day. The other half could not sleep with it.

    very windy still as I type.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 10,087 ✭✭✭✭Oscar Bravo


    Malin head gusting 54 knots(100km/h) at 7am



  • Registered Users Posts: 427 ✭✭Donegal Ken


    Alot of rivers have already burst there banks here in the northwest this morning. Rain has been none stop since 6pm Saturday.



  • Registered Users Posts: 3,399 ✭✭✭StevenToast


    Weather is brutal in limerick...far worse than the "orange" status during eunice....dangerous enough out there...

    No live updates on rte.....sure its a sunday, no news occurs of a sunday for RTE...

    "Don't piss down my back and tell me it's raining." - Fletcher



  • Registered Users Posts: 248 ✭✭ascophyllum


    GFS forecasting average winds over 80kmph and gusts over 120 for Mayo for today, yet still only a yellow warning from Met Eireann? Are they seeing something totally different? The ECM doesn't look too different. Or is there a different crew working weekends? There was a similar situation New Years Eve



  • Registered Users Posts: 7,134 ✭✭✭pad199207


    We have Storm Franklin now!

    Status Orange - Wind Warning for Clare

    Met Éireann Weather Warning

    Storm Franklin will cause gale force westerly winds with severe and damaging gusts. These winds combined with very high seas will lead to wave overtopping, which may result in coastal flooding.

    Valid: 12:00 Sunday 20/02/2022 to 00:00 Monday 21/02/2022

    Issued: 08:45 Sunday 20/02/2022



  • Registered Users Posts: 427 ✭✭Donegal Ken


    Forecast models this morning still showing severe and damaging gusts across the northwest and north. Some models showing gusts in excess of 130km/hr especially along some coastal areas. Winds inland of between 100km/hr to 120km/hr.

    UKMO and ICON trying to blow Donegal away.

    Sligo, Leitrim and Mayo may be added to the Orange warnings this morning. Especially northern parts of them counties were winds will be there strongest.

    Wonder will it be named.

    Fairly calm here this morning now




  • Registered Users Posts: 7,134 ✭✭✭pad199207


    Status Orange - Wind warning for Donegal, Leitrim, Sligo

    Met Éireann Weather Warning

    Storm Franklin will cause gale force west to northwest winds with severe and damaging gusts. These winds combined with very high seas will lead to wave overtopping, which may result in coastal flooding.

    Valid: 23:00 Sunday 20/02/2022 to 07:00 Monday 21/02/2022

    Issued: 08:53 Sunday 20/02/2022



  • Registered Users Posts: 14,321 ✭✭✭✭ednwireland


    pretty gusty in sw donegal. 80kmh gusts at finner. don't think ill be cycling today.



  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators, Regional West Moderators Posts: 59,844 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gremlinertia


    Got caught out by a gust as I walked home, very nearly onto the road, very rough at times overnight and a lot of water down.. Galway..



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  • Registered Users Posts: 7,134 ✭✭✭pad199207


    Status Yellow - Wind warning for Ireland

    Met Éireann Weather Warning

    Storm Franklin will cause very strong winds with severe and damaging gusts. These winds combined with very high seas will lead to wave overtopping along Atlantic coasts, which may result in coastal flooding.

    Valid: 09:00 Sunday 20/02/2022 to 09:00 Monday 21/02/2022

    Issued: 09:00 Sunday 20/02/2022



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