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Storm Franklin - Sunday 20th/Monday 21st Feb 2022
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19-02-2022 7:26pm#1
Thought it might be worth starting a thread as the weather models have upgraded the wind strengths for Sunday and especially early Monday morning, Met Eireann gave Donegal an Orange warning today and will see if the models raise the wind speed predictions.
Again a fast moving system which is very low at 955 hPa when the center is just S of Iceland and about 961hPa when the main center is off Scotland, looks like a second low with a very tight gradient is coming more into play producing the very strong winds later Sun night into Mon in the top third / half of the country.
As said in the charts to +120hr thread surprised to see the GFS increase the wind speeds so much since the earlier runs, ECM not as strong in over Ireland away from the coast, will it follow suit.
Exceptionally high seas also possibly leading to coastal flooding.
After the milder start turning colder from the NW tomorrow with thunderstorm potential in the unstable airflow with wintry showers and hail possible.
Looks to me like a particularly rough combination of weather elements tomorrow and especially towards night into early Monday morning.
Post edited by DOCARCH on27
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The GFS operational didn't look very convincing on Wetterzentrale but on Meteociel it does show showers getting across the country. I was looking at the 'new snow depth' and 'snow(png)' charts on wetterzentrale and the operational was 0.0 on those for some reason while most of the other models are between 2 and 12. There could be more snow potential with this than Eunice in the form of snow showers as it will be night time too, such a pity the window of opportunity is going to be very narrow indeed. The other gfs members are probably over doing the snow risk as this will be night time and showers generally die back to the coasts after dark.
The ECM is far less convincing of snow with mostly dry conditions away from western and northern coasts.
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Donegal straying into Red warning territory I reckon, looks a very rough night in the NW.
Very wet day and looks like plenty of wintry showers to follow the frontal rain.
Killybegs Tide Times
Tide Times
UTC:
Hi/Lo Time Height
Low 01:49 0.62m
High 08:01 4.10m
Low 14:11 0.52m
High 20:29 3.90m
NOT TO BE USED FOR NAVIGATION
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So these winds have been forecast for here for the last 5 days I thought it was over the top but it looks like it is very accurate. Anyone know what model XCWeather uses?
They also have snow forecast for Thursday morning! Fingers crossed for that!
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Potentially more disruption from this compared to Eunice , much longer duration strong winds over more of the country and the ground is getting very saturated now and things are getting loosened up.
Strongest winds tomorrow night into Mon morning. Certainly high end yellow but add all that rain with it would wonder are we getting into more widespread Orange especially in the N half of the country ?? Will see.
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Forecast models this morning still showing severe and damaging gusts across the northwest and north. Some models showing gusts in excess of 130km/hr especially along some coastal areas. Winds inland of between 100km/hr to 120km/hr.
UKMO and ICON trying to blow Donegal away.
Sligo, Leitrim and Mayo may be added to the Orange warnings this morning. Especially northern parts of them counties were winds will be there strongest.
Wonder will it be named.
Fairly calm here this morning now
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