Ukraine (Mod Note & Threadbanned Users in OP)

johnnyskeleton

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118666214#Comment_118666214

That line is unfortunately Kremlin propaganda.

For the 19th and early 20th Century, Ukraine was part of Imperial Russia.

Following the February 1917 revolution, the former Empire was governed by various bodies jostling for power. The most famous of these are of course the Petrograd Soviet and the Provisional Government, but there were other local bodies across the former empire. One of which was the Ukranian People's Republic. After the October 1917 revolution, when the Petrograd Soviet seized power from the Provisional Government, the Ukranian People's Republic declared itself independent in January, 2018. They were not universally recognised, and other groups were contending to be the government of the Ukraine, such as Ukranian nationalists.

The Treaty of Brest-Litovsk, which is claimed by Putin to be when the Germans invented the Ukraine, guaranteed Ukranian independence from the Soviet Union. The Germans did not create the Ukraine, they simply forced the fledgling Russian SSR to recognise their independence. The Germans certainly supported the Nationalist side, there is no argument with that.

This was short lived in any case, because the Ukraine was going through civil war and famine at the time. This later became part of the Russian Civil War, which was won by the Reds who then created the Soviet Union. The Soviet Union recognised the Ukranian SSR as being a constituent State of the Soviet Union.

The origins of Ukranian identity go back a long way, even to Kievian Rus (one of the early incarnations of the Russian Empire) and there has been a distinct Ukranian language, or at least slavic dialect, going back centuries.

It should also be borne in mind that the Russian Empire was not culturally homogenous, nor is modern Russia, with lots of ethnic minorities, regional autonomous republics etc. Look at Chechnya or Dagestan etc for examples.

So in summary, did Germany play a part in the Ukranian independence movement between 1917-1922 - yes. But not as big a part as the Red Army, that subsequently came in, took over and declared the Ukranian SSR, which, unlike the other states from 1917-1922, survived until 1990 and then continued as modern Ukraine.

Indeed, Russia recognised Ukraine's territorial independence under the Budapest Memorandum in 1994 in exchange for Ukraine giving up its nuclear arsenal.

The idea that Ukraine or Ukrainian independence was an invention of the Germans is an a-historical claim.

As for your comment about the EU being Germany plus 26 non-sovereign states, I don't even think this is worthy of a response and is, in any event, not relevant to the Ukraine crisis.

Also, I don't know enough about this concept of "limited sovereignty" that you talk about, but a quick google suggests that it is an idea that comes from the soviet union i.e. all soviet states are sovereign, but in a limited way and subject to the Soviet central command:

https://www.foreignaffairs.com/reviews/capsule-review/1990-06-01/soviet-concept-limited-sovereignty-lenin-gorbachev-brezhnev

Gatling

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118666598#Comment_118666598

There is the Belarusian referendum on the 27th that will see Lukashenkos rule extended until the 2030's at least ,the Russians troops aren't there by accident one of the reasons he called the referendum was to give him the power to invite Russian military to permanently stay in Belarus and he will be immune from any future prosecution for crimes he may have committed while in power ,

Putin sponsored the referendum ,only the other day Lukashenko discussed becoming a Colonel in the Russian army which suggests he's already given total power to Putin as the defacto leader of Belarus

StringerBell

Russia says it has destroyed a couple of military vehicles, and 5 Ukrainian soldiers who crossed the border into Russia.

Unconfirmed reports but I think that would be the first direct clash if there is to be a war

Yurt2

https://twitter.com/DmytroKuleba/status/1495755876422111234?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1495755876422111234%7Ctwgr%5E%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.bbc.co.uk%2Fnews%2Flive%2Fworld-europe-60454795

Ukrainian Foreign Minister. Immense pressure on the Ukrainian state and armed forces now - discipline required. Russia looking for any pretext to cross the frontier.

Gatling

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118667703#Comment_118667703

Propaganda we've seen numerous report s over the last few days, saying similar but zero evidence ever produced,

ambro25

It’s starting to escalate a little fast now-

https://twitter.com/idreesali114/status/1495764089771114503?s=20&t=HdS2NHPIYmbRDwL4SrGMNg

That ‘appeal’ is a day old, maybe not even that.

Meanwhile, the false flag-laden maskirovka gathers pace-

https://twitter.com/CITeam_en/status/1495759836843286529?s=20&t=sJq2aDfVBaU2ALYQTs7GXA

As some pundits noted, looks and feels like Georgia 2008 all over again.

Brussels Sprout

This happened a couple of hours ago as well:

https://twitter.com/NeilPHauer/status/1495726123686191106

This is shaping up very similar to Georgia in 2008 - except in that case the Georgians took the bait and responded to the Russian backed separatists. So far Ukraine has been disciplined but it likely won't even matter. If they don't attack then Russia will likely pretend that they did anyway.

Gatling

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118667989#Comment_118667989

Have you seen the border post that was supposedly hit 😂

Yurt2

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118668005#Comment_118668005

Very much like Georgia in 2008. The clowns won't know this, but it's a matter of record back then Condoleeza Rice spent days on the phone to Tbilisi warning them not to walk into the Kremlin trap of responding to Russian sponsored and Russian state-linked mercenary military activities in the two zones, that they'll use any pretext for an invasion. Russian state also spent the previous year handing out Russian passports to non-Georgian ethnics as a pretext to 'protect' their nationals (passportization). Tanks rolled all the way to the suburbs of Tbilisi within days once they had their engineered casus belli they were desperate for. Exact same playbook but Ukraine looks a lot more disciplined and the outside world know the tactics. The next 48-72 hours will tell a lot how this is going to go.

This is dirty, dirty business Russia is up to.

Yurt2

Bonkers stuff from the live Security Council meeting in the Kremlin. The FSB chief stands up and says (paraphrasing) "we should integrate Donetsk and Luhansk into the Russian Federation". Putin interrupts, "NO, we're talking about recognizing their independence!". FSB chief replies "Oh, right yes. Exactly." Mariupol being mentioned as well (outside the two puppet states area of control).

Kosovo and Neo-Nazis, attacks against the Slavic world being invoked by Lavrov. Blithely suggests giving 2 more days to the West, but says it wont make a difference anyway.

Crazytown. The institutional Russian state is losing its mind.

Flinty997

They didn't check with Putin exactly what he wanted them to say.

ambro25

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118668016#Comment_118668016

Yep.

One thing which I find crazy in all this (in a good way), is that nowadays the propaganda made out of the false flag ops is getting debunked about as fast as it’s made, in near real-time:

https://mobile.twitter.com/EliotHiggins/status/1495780783834943492

But is it enough to avert disaster?

Yurt2

Someone from the military saying that Ukraine will go nuclear 🤣

Yurt2

https://twitter.com/SimonOstrovsky/status/1495777081699057673?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1495777081699057673%7Ctwgr%5E%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.boards.ie%2Fdiscussion%2F2058195983%2Frussia%2Fp180

Simon Ostrovsky sums it up nicely

For such a serious situation, there's something Monty Pythonesque about that meeting

Brussels Sprout

My twitter timeline is full of people reacting to that meeting:

https://twitter.com/JaneLytv/status/1495782501347995650

https://twitter.com/ChristopherJM/status/1495769541984538628

https://twitter.com/maxseddon/status/1495780125593554950

I presume it's a done deal that they will recognise them at this point despite Putin ending the meeting on a cliffhanger.

lulublue22

Putin to address the Nation seems to be happening fairly soon.

https://twitter.com/ukrwarreport/status/1495811037572087812?s=21

Car bomb explodes in

https://twitter.com/ukrwarreport/status/1495815951056621575?s=21

Car bomb explodes in the centre of Luhansk.

Ukraine call for an emergency meeting of UNSC

https://twitter.com/dmytrokuleba/status/1495785519153922050?s=21

Today seems to be off the charts - I think things may be coming to a head- would be surprised given the number of false flags , the carry on of Russia’s security council meeting and Putin’s address to the nation if Russia does not at a minimum recognise the DNR and the LPR as Independent.

combat14

dont forget russian army back in kazhakstan in last few weeks - getting very familiar with their neighbours lately

Brussels Sprout

Interesting point here:

https://twitter.com/olliecarroll/status/1495783584766038023

Also by getting them all to stand up and state clearly that they supported this action....it was the equivalent of getting all to put their hands on the knife before they plunged it in.

Dempo1

It's been fascinating watching Putin operate, I'm no fan but my god he has European leaders running around like headless chicken's. Biden has just been hapless and embarrassing, utterly lost.

Whilst all this is going on, Russia making Billions extra in revenues from high gas prices .

It was Hillarious looking at Emmanuel Macron sitting like a spoiled child at the end of the biggest table I've ever seen in my life and the Belarusian President getting a Bear hug, the Germany chancellor also got the "Not to close treatment", Putin an absolute expert on exuding contempt.

The Ukrainian President seems to be a bit of a clown, wasn't he a comedian in a previous life 🤔, it shows.

So What is it that Putin is at 🤔 apart from taking the Pee out of Europe and Biden, I've always thought this is about Gas prices and the Two area's in Ukraine were there's conflict and low and behold, he's announced he's recognising independence for the two states, Bingo

Whilst Putin would like to invade Ukraine, he's no fool , he'll break it up gradually. I can't see him launching all out war, why would he🤔, to much at risk, to much to potentially loose, he'll play the long game, ultimately getting what he wants.

All this huffing and puffing from Europe and Biden, is exactly that and it's an embarrassing spectacle.

blackcard

Unusual for Putin, he is slouched in his chair, right shoulder higher than his left. Looks under pressure, not his usual confident self

Flinty997

Im not sure how you can say the western leaders have been helpless. They've done as much as they can do without starting a war.

Whatever about Russia making money from Gas now it's going to have a big impact on future incomes. Which seems a own goal for Putin.

Irish Praetorian

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118669094#Comment_118669094

Although I would be careful not to write him off, I do think some of Mr. Putin's reputation as a skilled operator is a product unwarranted fascination and often naivete among western observers. His ability to retain power, some seem to have attributed to some political mastery as opposed to a cold calculated willingness to clamp down on political rivals, murder troublesome journalists and provide a stage managed opposition. Meanwhile his supposed achievements on the world stage have amounted to little more than violating the taboos of international law slowly built up since the Second World War - namely ordering his troops into other countries and deciding to annex those parts he so desires.

One achievement I would readily grant him is his ability to create/fan/abuse the growth of moral confusion among Western societies, which are apparently so morally fatigued that they look upon a brutal dictator in a far off land and fawn over him as either a bastion of traditional conservative values and governance, or as a bulwark against international capitalist rapaciousness (read: the US). But then that's more an indictment on the state of our own societies than a particular achievement of Mr. Putin. But perhaps it puts our own leaders in a better context; we make disagree with our Taoiseach or the UK Prime minister or the US President, but I've never once felt that my criticism of them would endanger my life, or that they would disappear someone who displeased them. So I'm a little more understanding when they are trying to deal with a man without such scruples.

blackcard

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118669177#Comment_118669177

Distinctly unimpressive. Small eyes. Rambling speech

Yurt2

Russia to officially recognise Donetsk and Luhkansk. Announced via phonecall to Macron and Scholtz.

For all the talk of "off-ramps" being provided to Putin, he's determined not to take them. Macron in particular was willing to stake his reputation in the run up to the French election, played like a fiddle twice in as many weeks. Doubt that'll be forgotten.

Putin letting the US know they think of a clear air summit with Biden.

Whether they proceed beyond the current line of control when the Russian boots inevitably hit the ground in the puppet states is the next question. Even a toecap in Donbass will trigger sanctions.

Dirty business, and Putin is risking it all now. Extraordinary to witness.

Dempo1

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118669177#Comment_118669177

I agree completely and don't doubt for a moment how he's retained power or indeed how Russian politics functions.

I'm not political expert but have been flabbergasted at the ineptitude shown by various leaders around the world. Obviously they have to be seen to Ukrainian Allies and look out for its best interest .

Looking further East , North Korea bullied their way to attention , Trump visited , Kim got some concessions and world wide attention, Now and despite recent missile launches and continued war mongering rhetoric, he's essentially being completely ignored like a petulant child he is. Obviously Ukraine is more strategically important in Europe's eyes.

I don't pretend to have the Answers re Putin but just find it astonishing and despite all the intelligence, Europe and Biden entertaining him knowing how he operates.

Brussels Sprout

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118669094#Comment_118669094

I'm going to respectfully disagree with a lot of that.

I think Biden has made a lot of errors since he's come in to office but his handling of this isn't one of them. He's played this situation about as well as he can so far. Ukraine's not a member of NATO so they were never going to send in troops. They have supplied them with weapons though and they have been clear with Russia about ramping up of sanctions should they invade. Given that both countries are nuclear powers that's about as much as he can do. The decision to just straight up announce their intelligence to the world has been very clever. Putin has always thrived in the shadows. The American's have basically switched the lights on so that it's clear to see what he's up to and he doesn't like it. He's forced now to go ahead with his ludicrous narrative of Ukranian genocides and Ukranian attacks despite that the whole world was waiting for him to do exactly that because the Americans announced that he would a few days ago.

As for the tables. It's simple. Lukashenko is a pliant lackie so he got the short table and the hug. Putin has no respect for him. In contrast, Macron is not an ally. He's an adversary. He's the president of a country with a permanent seat on the UN security council (like Russia) He also refused to do a PCR test in Russia. He got the long table.

Dempo1

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118669233#Comment_118669233

And of course I appreciate differing opinions, I personally don't accept the PCR angle, it bordered on Ludicrous, Macron worried about the Russians getting his DNA 😁 German chancellor got the same treatment , I recall a number of commentators talking about the long table treatment and it was obvious to see what Putin was playing at.

Biden just seems to have one comment, repeated almost daily, He'll invade tomorrow, the next day etc. Putin won't and I'm no foreign affairs expert and can work that out for myself. I know alot of it is BS , brinkmanship etc, trying to prempt what Putin might do next, I just think it's silly nonsense. This aside , NATO leaders seem to be actually advising putin in advance of every movement they are making in building up defensive measures. Just seems utterly bizzare carry on.

Yurt2

I think the US' commutations strategy has been extremely good. Say f*ckall beyond "we know what you're up to, and here are the consequences". And they likely do know what's going on behind the curtain beyond what other Western countries can see. Between eyes in the sky, signals intelligence and disaffected human intelligence assets within the Putin set up.

Kooks love spreading nonsense about about the CIA thinking they're sending mind control rays to put the lizard people in charge. But the reality is their bread and butter is knowing what the f*ck is going on so the President can act with foreknowledge, and they're probably the best at it out there. I have full confidence that the US intelligence community has a fuller picture of what was and is being planned, probably more so than many in Putin's inner circle.

Yurt2

This is box office. 40 million Ukrainians being subjected to genocide apparently. The man has lost it.

The Putin defenders really should pause for a moment and listen to this before they hit send on their next post.

Ahherelads2022

Mother Russia is back.. Classic Putin. Shove your sanctions up you whatever.

Gatling

Everything I said would happen over the last 8 years is coming to fruition ,if putin is allowed to continue this madness the whole of Europe will burn ,he wants the old Soviet union to rise from the ashes ,

This is Dangerous

Flinty997

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118669305#Comment_118669305

No hiding from Satellites theses days.

All they can do it put pieces on the board and let Putin have his sugar rush. They can't put feet in the Ukraine, everyone knows this. They've done as much can.

Ahherelads2022

They get the east. If Ukraine attack or the West imposes sanctions then it's war.

Gatling

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118669511#Comment_118669511

It's already war ,

Larbre34

The Crimea humiliation really was the biggest foreign policy error of the combined Western hemisphere since 1938.

Putin should have been stomped on in 2014, literally stomped into a pink mist. Now it'll have to be done in 2022 and it will be all the more difficult after eight years of consolidation and military modernisation.

maestroamado

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118669455#Comment_118669455

Europe pretty well redundant on this... we are a stopping off place... This is an exercise to make it big 3 in my view... US, Russia and China and we EU left out... i think Putin winning....

Ahherelads2022

The EU is controlled by the US via Nato. The EU could have its own policy years ago but was chipped away by uncle same.

maestroamado

Just watching C4 news and they reporting Putin's address to the Russian people reporter saying the world are watching which we are but we are doing nothing...

So Putin addresses Russian people and live on west tele... its a PR exercise... no intention of invading... play the game it actually kinda suits US i think...

Yurt2

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118669577#Comment_118669577

The EU has never had a military component until extremely modest initiatives in the last decade or so, and it would have been baulked at by many member states - as small as Ireland and as large as Germany.

NATO has been around since 1949 and had a coherency that backstopped the European peace when the European political project was about coal and steel tariff reduction. Is the USA the most influential country in the Treaty? Absolutely. Would it have happened without them and the European settlement post-war been shielded from further conflict? Absolutely not.

NATO has its faults, but if it wasn't invented, I don't think you'd like how the second half of the 20th century would have gone for Europe. It would highly likely have looked like the first half. NATO was not an American foreign policy luxury, it was essential. If you think that the USSR would have stayed politely at their side of the Iron Curtain or indeed that a nationalist in the West wouldn't have risen to settle old WW2 scores the other side of the Berlin wall you're deluded. NATO took the sting out of a lot of bad elements in European politics and militarism. I don't imagine it was going to be nominated for a Nobel Peace Prize, but in the real world of iron, steel and ancient European grievances, it was and is completely necessary.

EDIT: I actually missed it on the first pass on your comment, but no, the US does not control the EU via NATO - that's high-order conspiratorial nonsense. Very, very silly stuff.

Flinty997

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118669641#Comment_118669641

That's the game though isn't it.

beggars_bush

very similar to hitler in 1939

next there will be referendums in those two areas and they will be assimilated into Russia

maestroamado

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118669771#Comment_118669771

RTE news said Simon and EU will sort out...

Yurt2

https://twitter.com/yarotrof/status/1495873686129283075

Looks like we're underway...

Dark day for Ukraine and a lot of uncertainty and danger lies ahead. Will they head for Kyiv as they went for Tbilisi in 2008? The form book would suggest yes, but we'll see.

Ahherelads2022

Depends on Ukraine's next move. Fight back or make a deal. They wouldn't be allowed make a deal though, after the coup they have to go all in with what the US says, and what suits the US.

Yurt2

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118670145#Comment_118670145

Yes the real problem here is the US and what you think is going on behind closed doors. Not the decades-long military coercion, dismemberment, assassination campaigns, economic threats emanating from Moscow because Ukraine had the temerity to look towards institutions such as the EU.

On a day when an addled and practically foaming at the mouth Russian President gave a speech essentially saying Ukraine doesn't exist and any sovereignty they enjoy is at the Kremlin's pleasure, another repurposed conspiracy theory about the US' role is a little off-color.

Ahherelads2022

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118669676#Comment_118669676

When the coup was happening I remember Nuland was out giving the bums protesting bread rolls. Then she was caught on the phone saying F the EU. They US policy in the region is why the EU will have a problem with Russia.

Yurt2

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118670271#Comment_118670271

It wasn't a coup. Yanukovych hit the skids for Russia ahead of impeachment and was removed from the Presidency by parliament in accordance with the Ukrainian constitution.

The fact you're calling it a coup tells us all we need to know. The only people calling it a coup are Kreminlinistas and those that eat up what comes out of there uncritically.

Flinty997

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118670145#Comment_118670145

What sort of a deal. Im not sure they can build Putin a palace big enough.

gmisk

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118669641#Comment_118669641

Errr this has aged badly incredibly quickly...they are already moving in..."peace-keeping"...

Ahherelads2022

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118670435#Comment_118670435

Yes basically, Ukraine is just a piece of land with no power controlled by Nato and Russia.