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2022 Seanad by-election

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  • Registered Users Posts: 3,003 ✭✭✭Shelga


    I voted #1 for Tom Clonan, gave Maureen Gaffney my #3. I do like the idea of senators being independent.

    Why is Hugo McNeill doing so well? Anyone who puts rugby as a selling point on the blurb of their leaflets is an instant no from me.



  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]



    Possibly because not everyone who voted shares your view of the world. I voted for him despite the fact that he played rugby for Ireland!

    Incidentally, if you voted for Clonan no.1 then it's unlikely that your lower preferences are going to matter very much!



  • Registered Users Posts: 3,003 ✭✭✭Shelga


    Fair enough, but even if someone is a rugby fan, I don’t see how someone’s prior experience in rugby is of any use whatsoever in the Seanad! Sure, there’ll be some votes on sports funding etc, but when you see some of the achievements of the other candidates, I don’t really get it. Yes of course I can only speak for myself.



  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]



    My voting strategy involved asking myself which candidate would Bacik be most upset to see winning her seat - and the answer was very obvious!

    My son's voting strategy was equally logical - he asked himself who was most likely to beat Chu based on the recent TCD election, so went for Clonan!



  • Moderators, Business & Finance Moderators, Motoring & Transport Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 67,996 Mod ✭✭✭✭L1011


    Bassett, I would have expected - McNeill would be lower down than having Bassett in there spouting.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 41,009 ✭✭✭✭Annasopra


    Looking at the count I think Hazel Chu has an outside chance here

    Roseingrave, Mckenna, O'Neill, Stocker and Quill could all swing it to Chu


    It was so much easier to blame it on Them. It was bleakly depressing to think that They were Us. If it was Them, then nothing was anyone's fault. If it was us, what did that make Me? After all, I'm one of Us. I must be. I've certainly never thought of myself as one of Them. No one ever thinks of themselves as one of Them. We're always one of Us. It's Them that do the bad things.

    Terry Pratchet



  • Registered Users Posts: 168 ✭✭9320


    I think Gaffney will win it - MacNeill is toast I would think, just not going to get the transfers. Chu probably too far behind Gaffney so Gaffney versus Clonan.



  • Registered Users Posts: 858 ✭✭✭jolivmmx


    I voted Gaffney as my number one and Clonan as number two



  • Moderators, Business & Finance Moderators, Motoring & Transport Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 67,996 Mod ✭✭✭✭L1011


    Roseingrave nearly 2:1 to Gaffney over Chu


    McKenna's voters could be anything and everything these days, McNeill and non-transferable could take more than Chu!



  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]



    The extent of McKenna's transfers in Chu's direction could be significant. If she isn't well ahead of Gaffney after that then I reckon she hasn't a hope!



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  • Moderators, Business & Finance Moderators, Motoring & Transport Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 67,996 Mod ✭✭✭✭L1011


    McKenna now out with 463 votes to transfer.


    This could be a very odd split. Some Green line stuff to Chu, anti EU to Bassett (enough to keep him in for another count? Probably not) etc

    Chu will need an exceptionally strong split to get ahead of Gaffney on this.



  • Registered Users Posts: 41,009 ✭✭✭✭Annasopra


    I heard a tally of O'Neills number 2 transfers went way over 40% to Chu

    It was so much easier to blame it on Them. It was bleakly depressing to think that They were Us. If it was Them, then nothing was anyone's fault. If it was us, what did that make Me? After all, I'm one of Us. I must be. I've certainly never thought of myself as one of Them. No one ever thinks of themselves as one of Them. We're always one of Us. It's Them that do the bad things.

    Terry Pratchet



  • Registered Users Posts: 41,009 ✭✭✭✭Annasopra


    I still think Chu has an outside chance from transfers.

    It was so much easier to blame it on Them. It was bleakly depressing to think that They were Us. If it was Them, then nothing was anyone's fault. If it was us, what did that make Me? After all, I'm one of Us. I must be. I've certainly never thought of myself as one of Them. No one ever thinks of themselves as one of Them. We're always one of Us. It's Them that do the bad things.

    Terry Pratchet



  • Registered Users Posts: 858 ✭✭✭jolivmmx




  • Moderators, Business & Finance Moderators, Motoring & Transport Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 67,996 Mod ✭✭✭✭L1011


    Oluborode would have some small g green stuff along with O'Neill that could link through to Chu.



  • Moderators, Business & Finance Moderators, Motoring & Transport Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 67,996 Mod ✭✭✭✭L1011


    Going on William Quill's spreadsheet (he hasn't tweeted the summary yet), Gaffney got more of McKenna's transfers than Chu; Bassett now out.

    edit:




  • Registered Users Posts: 858 ✭✭✭jolivmmx


    I cannot imagine a lot of Bassett’s votes will go to Chu



  • Moderators, Business & Finance Moderators, Motoring & Transport Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 67,996 Mod ✭✭✭✭L1011


    McNeill and the bin (non transferable) to be the main winners, I'd expect.

    I thought they'd take more than Chu from McKenna, which they did combined (32+32 vs 60) at least.



  • Registered Users Posts: 41,009 ✭✭✭✭Annasopra


    I heard there was a tally that she was getting roughly 45% of Sadhbh ONeill number 2s

    It was so much easier to blame it on Them. It was bleakly depressing to think that They were Us. If it was Them, then nothing was anyone's fault. If it was us, what did that make Me? After all, I'm one of Us. I must be. I've certainly never thought of myself as one of Them. No one ever thinks of themselves as one of Them. We're always one of Us. It's Them that do the bad things.

    Terry Pratchet



  • Registered Users Posts: 858 ✭✭✭jolivmmx


    She would still need in excess of 250 extra votes, as it stands currently, plus whatever excess that the other candidates receive. I just cannot see it happening



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  • Moderators, Business & Finance Moderators, Motoring & Transport Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 67,996 Mod ✭✭✭✭L1011


    Only really helpful if Gaffney doens't get ~20% or more though; which considering who will be left is quite likely.



  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 19,433 Mod ✭✭✭✭Sam Russell


    It looks like Gaffney is getting more transfers than Chu, and McNeil is not getting enough, so between Gaffney and Conan.

    The differences between the front four is about the number of transfers each is getting, and that will increase as more are eliminated, so still all to play for - but Chu has a long way to go to catch up.



  • Moderators, Business & Finance Moderators, Motoring & Transport Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 67,996 Mod ✭✭✭✭L1011


    Minor aside - if Gaffney gets this, it will give Trinity two of the oldest members of the Oireachtas in her and Norris.



  • Registered Users Posts: 858 ✭✭✭jolivmmx


    When I was reading up on her, she stated that she was the first person in her family to go to College. I like that!



  • Registered Users Posts: 625 ✭✭✭Cal4567


    So this elitist nonsense is only open to those who graduated out of Trinity College. Any other requirements, like you have to own 2 houses as well?

    Cannot believe we still have this farce, along with the media giving it attention.



  • Moderators, Business & Finance Moderators, Motoring & Transport Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 67,996 Mod ✭✭✭✭L1011


    Spreadsheet reading pre-Quill tweet again - MacNeill and Clonan the main recipients of Bassett's votes. Oluborode out. Gaffney eked a tiny bit further ahead of Chu

    MacNeill only leads by 7 now and I expect that to end on the next count.

    Its all left or left-ish women to go out now; but both Chu and Gaffney are potential recipients for that vote. And Clonan of course; he can't be entirely written off.



  • Registered Users Posts: 7,269 ✭✭✭MrMusician18


    Have to laugh that the discussion here is all about Chu even though she looks like an outside chance only at this point. She's quite the divisive character.

    Not a great selection of candidates there to be fair. How many of them seem to be some shade of green?



  • Registered Users Posts: 7,269 ✭✭✭MrMusician18


    You have to have a horse worth at least £5.

    It's mad that such a rotten borough can exist in a modern democracy tbh, and I say that as someone who had a vote here.



  • Registered Users Posts: 859 ✭✭✭Icemancometh


    Presuming Clonan passes out MacNeill, would you think it'd come down to MacNeill's transfers?



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  • Moderators, Business & Finance Moderators, Motoring & Transport Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 67,996 Mod ✭✭✭✭L1011


    Three of them have run as Greens in other races (Chu, O'Neill and Roseingrave); one is a member of the lawyers environmental group (Oluborode).

    Its mathematically possible for it not to come to that... but it probably will.



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