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February 2022 Boards weather forecast contest

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  • 30-01-2022 6:22am
    #1
    Registered Users Posts: 14,427 ✭✭✭✭


    1. Predict the IMT (average temperature at five locations, Claremorris, Mullingar, Casement, Oak Park, Shannon), 1981-2010 "normal" was 5.3 C.

    2. Predict the MAX and

    3. MIN (each from the 25 stations normally reporting on the met.ie website).

    4. Predict the PRC as a percentage of normal values (the data used come from eleven locations, the five mentioned in part one, plus these six: Malin Head, Belmullet, Ballyhaise, Johnstown Castle, Cork, Valentia).

    5. Predict the SUN as a percentage of normal values (the data used come from six locations, Belmullet, Casement, Dublin, Cork, Shannon and Valentia).

    6. BONUS _ For the 14th, what will be the warmest of the standard weather reporting locations (as seen on the met.ie website under current weather and yesterday's weather) and what will be their daily maximum?

    Deadline as always is 0300h 1st (Tuesday, meaning late Monday evening past midnight) and late penalties are 1 point for every four hours or portion, up to 36h (1500h 2nd) after which the penalty increases. Anyone entering after a plausible "MAX" is set on the first, using that value, will also be subject to a cap of 15/20 score in that category.

    Post edited by M.T. Cranium on


«1

Comments

  • Registered Users Posts: 13,544 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen


    sryanbruen ________ 5.7 _ 15.2 _ -4.1 _ 90 _ 100 __ Shannon Airport, 12.9



  • Registered Users Posts: 8,913 ✭✭✭Danno


    Danno ________ 3.7 _ 14.7 _ -8.2 _ 60 _ 150 __ Valentia, 3.9c



  • Registered Users Posts: 341 ✭✭kindredspirit


    Kindred Spirit _____ 5.8 ___ 15.5 ___ -4.2 ___ 142 ___ 102 ___ Oak Park 12.7°



  • Registered Users Posts: 555 ✭✭✭dasa29


    Dasa29 ________ 5.4 _ 15.5 _ -4.0 _ 90 _ 110 __ Mullingar, 15c



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,771 ✭✭✭Bsal


    Bsal ________ 5.8 _ 16.0 _ -3.0 _ 87 _ 98 __ Casement, 10.2



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  • Registered Users Posts: 14,427 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    M. T. Cranium ___________ 7.4 _ 17.2 _ -3.5 _ 080 _ 110 __ 13.5 Oak Park

    NormaL ________________ 5.3 _ 15.5 _ -6.0 _ 100 _ 100 __ 12.0 (scoring by climatology)

    For NormaL's bonus "guess" I go with the concept that the average country-wide max will be 2 deg above the average country-wide mean, just by random scattering. So by mid-Feb the average max in Ireland is probably pretty close to 10 C, and if there was a very average sort of day, some location would be bound to reach 12 C.

    For my IMT, I just have that feeling that very mild conditions are going to dominate and it could get even warmer in the second half like it has in several recent mild Febs. There were some model runs showing cold outbreaks and maybe those will return but I noticed a downgrade recently, and that storm hitting the east coast of the U.S. over the weekend has brought along a very large load of subtropical air that was left behind over the western Atlantic. It has to go somewhere, I suppose.



  • Registered Users Posts: 190 ✭✭sunflower3


    Sunflower3 _____ 6.3___ 15.8___ -4.0___ 95___ 110 ___ Oak Park 14.0°



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,991 ✭✭✭Artane2002


    Artane2002 ________ 6.4 _ 15.8 _ -2.7 _ 085 _ 110 __ Shannon Airport, 13.3



  • Registered Users Posts: 6,962 ✭✭✭pauldry


    Pauldry ________ 6.6_ 15.3_ -3.8 _ 91 _ 100__ Valentia, 12.4

    Post edited by pauldry on


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,779 ✭✭✭Joe Public


    Joe Public__________ 5.4 _ 15.1 _ -9.4 _ 110 _ 90 __ 7.5 Valentia



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  • Registered Users Posts: 1,480 ✭✭✭Jpmarn


    Jpmarn ________________ 4.8 _ 15.2 _ -7.5 _ 125 _ 120 __ 10.2 Valentia



  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,793 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    Gonzo ___________ 7.7 _ 16.8 _ -3.2 _ 073 _ 115 __ 12.4 Shannon



  • Moderators, Home & Garden Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 17,860 Mod ✭✭✭✭DOCARCH


    DOCARCH ___________ 6.1 _ 15.9 _ -5.2 _ 080 _ 105 __ 11.1 Casement



  • Registered Users Posts: 5,115 ✭✭✭John mac


    John mac ___________ 6.3 _ 15.9 _ -5.0 _ 90 _ 107 __ 14.0  newport



  • Registered Users Posts: 374 ✭✭waterways


    waterways __________5.6 _ 14.9 _ -6.5 _ 77 _ 119 ___ 8.4 Valentia



  • Registered Users Posts: 716 ✭✭✭Tae laidir


    Tae laidir ______________ 6.2 _ 15.3 _ -3.3 _ 108 _ 108 __ 12.8 Casement

    Post edited by Tae laidir on


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,860 ✭✭✭appledrop


    Appledrop___6.8__15.2__-4.1___110__95__13.2 Phoneix Park



  • Registered Users Posts: 389 ✭✭mrskinner


    Skinner_____6.4____15____-5____100____110____Sherkin 12.5.



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,730 ✭✭✭mr.stonewall


    Mrstonewall____7.2____15.6_____-3.3___88__110__shannon, 11.4



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,838 ✭✭✭dacogawa


    Dacogawa ______________ 6.6 ___ 15.9 ___ -5.7 ___ 104 ___ 110 ___ Valentia, 12.8



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  • Registered Users Posts: 815 ✭✭✭adam240610


    Adam240610 _____ 4.7 _ 14.7 _ -6.2 _ 70 _ 140 __ Valentia, 7.2c



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,603 ✭✭✭200motels


    200motels 5.8 _ 15.4 _ -4.9 _ 94 _ 101 __ Shannon Airport, 13.8



  • Registered Users Posts: 14,427 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Table of forecasts for February 2022


    FORECASTER ____________ IMT _ MAX _ MIN _ PRC _ SUN ___ Max 14th, loc'n


    Gonzo __________________ 7.7 _ 16.8 _ -3.2 _ 073 _ 115 ___ 12.4 _ Shannon

    M. T. Cranium ____________ 7.4 _ 17.2 _ -3.5 _ 080 _ 110 ___ 13.5 _ Oak Park

    MrStonewall ______________7.2 _ 15.6 _ -3.3 _ 088 _ 110 ___ 11.4 _ Shannon

    Appledrop _______________ 6.8 _ 15.2 _ -4.1 _ 110 _ 095 ___ 13.2 _ Phoenix Park

    Dacogawa _______________ 6.6 _ 15.9 _ -5.7 _ 104 _ 110 ___ 12.8 _ Valentia

    Pauldry _________________ 6.6 _ 15.3 _ -3.8 _ 091 _ 100 ___ 12.4 _ Valentia

    Artane2002 ______________6.4 _ 15.8 _ -2.7 _ 085 _ 110 ___ 13.3 _ Shannon

    MrSkinner _______________ 6.4 _ 15.0 _ -5.0 _ 100 _ 110 ___ 12.5 _ Sherkin

    John mac ________________6.3 _ 15.9 _ -5.0 _ 090 _ 107 ___ 14.0 _ Newport

    Sunflower3 ______________ 6.3 _ 15.8 _ -4.0 _ 095 _ 110 ___ 14.0 _ Oak Park

    Tae laidir ________________ 6.2 _ 15.3 _ -3.3 _ 108 _ 108 ___ 12.8 _ Casement


    ___ Con Sensus ___________6.2 _ 15.4 _ -4.1 _ 095 _ 100 ___ 12.4 _


    DOCARCH _______________ 6.1 _ 15.9 _ -5.2 _ 080 _ 105 ___ 11.1 _ Casement

    Bsal ____________________5.8 _ 16.0 _ -3.0 _ 087 _ 098 ___ 10.2 _ Casement

    Kindred Spirit ____________ 5.8 _ 15.5 _ -4.2 _ 142 _ 102 ___ 12.7 _ Oak Park

    200motels _______ (-5) ____5.8 _ 15.4 _ -4.9 _ 094 _ 101 ___ 13.8 _ Shannon

    sryanbruen ______________ 5.7 _ 15.2 _ -4.1 _ 090 _ 100 ___ 12.9 _ Shannon

    waterways _______________5.6 _ 14.9 _ -6.5 _ 077 _ 119 ____ 8.4 _ Valentia

    Dasa29 _________________ 5.4 _ 15.5 _ -4.0 _ 090 _ 110 ___ 15.0 _ Mullingar

    Joe Public _______________ 5.4 _ 15.1 _ -9.4 _ 110 _ 090 ____ 7.5 _ Valentia


    ___ NormaL _____________ 5.3 _ 15.5 _ -6.0 _ 100 _ 109 ___ 12.0 (scoring by climatology)


    Jpmarn _________________ 4.8 _ 15.2 _ -7.5 _ 125 _ 120 ___ 10.2 _ Valentia

    Adam240610 _____(-2) ____4.7 _ 14.7 _ -6.2 _ 070 _ 140 ____ 7.2 _ Valentia

    Danno __________________ 3.7 _ 14.7 _ -8.2 _ 060 _ 150 ____ 3.9 _ Valentia

    =============================

    22 forecasts so far, any later ones can be added ... consensus is median value, average of 12th and 13th ranked.

    For the location of the warmest temperature on 14th, the forecast choices (and Con Sensus scoring if correct) are

    Valentia ____ 7 ___ Con scores 3 if correct

    Shannon ___ 5 ___ Con scores 3 if correct

    Oak Park ___ 3 ___ Con scores 2 if correct

    Casement ___3 ___ Con scores 2 if correct

    Phoenix Park _1 ___ Con scores 2 if correct

    Mullingar ___ 1 ___ Con scores 1 if correct

    Newport ____1 ___ Con scores 1 if correct

    Sherkin ____ 1 ___ Con scores 1 if correct

    any other location _Con scores 0 if correct

    ... if any other location takes the max, our scores will be based on highest values at predicted locations

    ... the scoring will run 7/10 for temp value and 3/10 for location _ 1 and 2 pt superbonus available.

    NormaL scores by climatology on this location, will check when we have a location and decide then.



  • Registered Users Posts: 716 ✭✭✭Tae laidir


    Moore Park 12.9 yesterday may be the warmest so far.



  • Registered Users Posts: 14,427 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    After the first week ...

    IMT is on 7.4 which is 2.2 above normal.

    MAX was 12.9 yesterday, could have edged higher today with 13 C hourly reports in the south.

    MIN -0.2 also yesterday at Mullingar.

    PRC 109% of normal.

    SUN 71% (424/600) with the west particularly cloudy.

    Model maps for 14th looking rather chilly at this point. GFS shows temps of 6 to 8 C. ECM similar.



  • Registered Users Posts: 716 ✭✭✭Tae laidir


    Oak & Moore Parks 13.1 yesterday.



  • Registered Users Posts: 716 ✭✭✭Tae laidir





  • Registered Users Posts: 5,860 ✭✭✭appledrop


    The forecast is for plenty of frost tonight so we may get our min for the month.



  • Registered Users Posts: 6,962 ✭✭✭pauldry


    Tomorrow night is the colder one Appledrop



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  • Registered Users Posts: 5,860 ✭✭✭appledrop


    Your spot on pauldry got it mixed up. Let's see what min we get tonight.



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