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February 2022 Boards weather forecast contest

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  • Registered Users Posts: 6,834 ✭✭✭pauldry


    It says Mullingar got to -2.6c but possible a few stations like Markree or Mt Dillon or Dunsany might beat that.



  • Registered Users Posts: 706 ✭✭✭Tae laidir


    Mullingar again-2.6.

    Must have been around midnight.



  • Registered Users Posts: 6,834 ✭✭✭pauldry


    Might go lower before month end. Next Wed looks max so far. Also a lot of rain this month forecast so that will be well above 100 percent



  • Registered Users Posts: 6,834 ✭✭✭pauldry


    Not sure but think BONUS question answer is Valentia 10.2c but Sherkin and Belmullet are at 10c too.



  • Registered Users Posts: 14,279 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    I will post the scoring analysis in a few minutes but the results shown right now (bold type indicates contest choices) are

    10.4 _ Valentia

    10.3 _ Sherkin Island

    10.1 _ Newport

    9.5 _ Belmullet, Shannon

    9.3 _ Johnstown, Mace Head

    9.2 _ Roches Point, Moorepark

    9.1 _ Athenry, Claremorris

    9.0 _ Mountdillon

    8.7 _ Casement

    8.4 _ Mullingar

    (all colder locations not picked by forecasters not shown)

    8.1 _ Oak Park

    Post edited by M.T. Cranium on


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  • Registered Users Posts: 14,279 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Scoring summary for the bonus question (max temp 14th, location)


    By the rules, Valentia scores 3 as a location, Con and NormaL both get 3 as that was the most popular choice and often occurs in the climate record. Sherkin Island was a close second and scores 2. Newport was third and scores 1 for location.

    See the previous post (edited) for all max temps at locations chosen by various forecasters. It turned out that most of the choices were near the top of the full list, which only includes those stations that were warmer than some of the chosen locations.

    In terms of points for temperatures, I looked for the seven groups that were most clustered for the 1-7 points available. This is the result of that part, with additional location and (where applicable) super bonus points indicated.

    7 pts _ JPmarn 10.2 (+3 Val, +2 = 12), Bsal 10.2 (Casement).

    6 pts _ DOCARCH 11.2 (Casement), MrStonewall 11.4 (Shannon). NormaL 12.0 (+3 = 9).

    5 pts _ Pauldry 12.4 (+3 Val = 8); Gonzo 12.4 (Shannon); MrSkinner 12.5 (+2 Sherkin = 7); waterways 8.4 (+3 Val, = 8). Con Sensus 12.4 (+3 = 8).

    4 pts _ Kindred Spirit 12.7 (Oak Park); dacogawa 12.8 (+3 Val = 7); tae laidir 12.8 (Casement); sryanbruen 12.9 (Shannon).

    3 pts _ Appledrop 13.2 (Ph Park); Joe Public 7.5 (+3 Val = 6); Artane2002 13.3 (Shannon); M.T. Cranium 13.5 (Oak Park); Adam240610 7.2 (+3 Val = 6).

    2 pts _ 200motels 13.8 (Shannon); John mac 14.0 (+1 Newport = 3); Sunflower3 14.0 (Oak Park);

    1 pt __ Dasa29 15.0 (Mullingar); Danno 3.9 (Val +3 = 4).



  • Registered Users Posts: 14,279 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    After two weeks ...

    IMT on 6.8 with the second week average 6.3, 1.0 above normal.

    MAX 13.1 and MIN -2.6

    PRC 118% with the second week average 127%.

    SUN 98% with the second week average around 125% (Belmullet has incomplete data).

    Bonus 10.4 Valentia, scoring in previous post.



  • Registered Users Posts: 14,279 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    New MAX of 15.3 at Moorepark yesterday.



  • Registered Users Posts: 14,279 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Oops, I forgot to update third week ... this will be approximately similar but one day late ...

    IMT (after 22 days) was 6.9; it was likely 6.8 after 21 days. The third week average (one day late) was 6.7 which was 1.1 above normal.

    MAX 15.6, MIN -2.6

    PRC now around 170% with the third week (either 15-21 or 16-22) around 270%.

    SUN now around 90% with the third week (either 15-21 or 16-22) around 80%.

    BONUS was scored earlier.

    With at least normal rainfall appearing likely for rest of month, and similar cloud-sunshine ratios, those elements will likely finish near the values now held. Cannot see much chance of MAX or MIN changing, although MIN could fall slightly into the -3 to -4 range, if Thursday night stays clear anywhere, and the IMT could slip back a little with a very cold day expected today (Thursday 24th) then back to relatively mild, should all balance out near 7 C.

    There has already been enough rain to guarantee an outcome of 140% for PRC (including 23rd). Our highest forecast of 142% from Kindred Spirit will likely be passed by a wide enough margin that the limited boost will not be activated, but the full mercy of minimum progression will fall gently upon one and all. There likely won't be much mercy for IMT or MIN though. We have forecasts near or even beyond those likely outcomes. MAX and SUN should score relatively well.



  • Registered Users Posts: 14,279 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    The IMT has finished on 6.8 C.

    I will leave confirmation of other elements to the Monthly Summary tomorrow.

    There was no new MIN at midnight as temps were on their way down to morning lows of --3 to -4 C.

    PRC will likely be around 165 per cent and SUN was edging back towards a normal outcome.

    Will have the exact numbers tomorrow and some scoring.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 14,279 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Scoring for February 2022

    Values used are shown in table after confirmation in MS. No adjustments were required except for SUN.

    (note that 15.6 as max in weekly reports was my error, we had 15.3 at first)


    FORECASTER ____________ IMT_MAX_MIN_PRC_SUN _ Bonus __ TOTALS

    _____ (est or confirmed) _ 6.8_ 15.3_ -2.6_ 162_ 96 __ 10.4 Val

    Pauldry _________________23 _ 20 _ 09*_ 08*_ 09 ___ 08 ______ 77

    Tae laidir ________________19 _ 20 _ 14*_ 12*_ 08 ___ 04 ______ 77

    Appledrop _______________25 _ 19 _ 06*_ 13*_ 10 ___ 03 ______ 76

    MrStonewall _____________ 21 _ 17 _ 14*_ 05*_ 07 ___ 06 ______ 70

    Artane2002 ______________21 _ 15 _ 20*_ 04*_ 07 ___ 03 ______ 70

    ___ Con Sensus __________ 19 _ 19 _ 06*_ 09*_ 09 ___ 08 ____ 70

    Bsal ____________________15 _ 13 _ 17*_ 05*_ 10 ___ 07 ______ 67

    Kindred Spirit ____________ 15 _ 18 _ 05*_ 15*_ 09 ___ 04 ______ 66

    Dacogawa _______________ 23 _ 14 _ 01*_ 11*_ 07 ___ 07 ______ 63

    MrSkinner _______________ 21 _ 17 _ 01*_ 10*_ 07 ___ 07 ______ 63

    Sunflower3 ______________ 20 _ 15 _ 07*_ 09*_ 07 ___ 02 ______ 60

    sryanbruen ______________ 14 _ 19 _ 06*_ 06*_ 09 ___ 04 ______ 58

    Joe Public _______________ 11 _ 18 _ 00__ 13*_ 09 ___ 06 ______ 57

    ___ NormaL _____________ 10 _ 18 _ 01*_ 10*_ 09 ___ 09 ____ 57

    Jpmarn _________________ 05 _ 19 _ 00__ 14*_ 05 ___ 12 ______ 55

    John mac ________________20 _ 14 _ 01*_ 07*_ 08 ___ 03 ______ 53

    DOCARCH _______________ 18 _ 14 _ 01*_ 03*_ 08 ___ 06 ______ 50

    Dasa29 _________________ 11 _ 18 _ 07*_ 06*_ 07 ___ 01 ______ 50

    200motels _______ (-5) ____15 _ 19 _ 01*_ 08*_ 09 ___ 02 _54-5= 49

    Gonzo __________________ 16 _ 05 _ 15*_ 02*_ 06 ___ 05 ______ 49

    M. T. Cranium ____________ 19 _ 01 _ 12*_ 03*_ 07 ___ 03 ______ 45

    waterways _______________13 _ 16 _ 00__ 03*_ 05 ___ 08 ______ 45

    Adam240610 _____(-2) ____ 04 _ 14 _ 01*_ 02*_ 01 ___ 06 _28-2= 26

    Danno __________________ 00 _ 14 _ 00__ 01*_ 00 ___ 04 ______ 19

    ============================= --- ==========================

    * MIN scores boosted by one point, better half of raw zero scores --> 1 pt. (highest raw score 19/20 activated limited boost, 10/22 zero scores required some boost ... PRC full minimum progression as outcome 170% and max forecast 142% had raw score of 6/15.

    ==========================================================

    (actual forecasts)

    FORECASTER ____________ IMT _ MAX _ MIN _ PRC _ SUN ___ Max 14th, loc'n


    Gonzo __________________ 7.7 _ 16.8 _ -3.2 _ 073 _ 115 ___ 12.4 _ Shannon

    M. T. Cranium ____________ 7.4 _ 17.2 _ -3.5 _ 080 _ 110 ___ 13.5 _ Oak Park

    MrStonewall ______________7.2 _ 15.6 _ -3.3 _ 088 _ 110 ___ 11.4 _ Shannon

    Appledrop _______________ 6.8 _ 15.2 _ -4.1 _ 110 _ 095 ___ 13.2 _ Phoenix Park

    Dacogawa _______________ 6.6 _ 15.9 _ -5.7 _ 104 _ 110 ___ 12.8 _ Valentia

    Pauldry _________________ 6.6 _ 15.3 _ -3.8 _ 091 _ 100 ___ 12.4 _ Valentia

    Artane2002 ______________6.4 _ 15.8 _ -2.7 _ 085 _ 110 ___ 13.3 _ Shannon

    MrSkinner _______________ 6.4 _ 15.0 _ -5.0 _ 100 _ 110 ___ 12.5 _ Sherkin

    John mac ________________6.3 _ 15.9 _ -5.0 _ 090 _ 107 ___ 14.0 _ Newport

    Sunflower3 ______________ 6.3 _ 15.8 _ -4.0 _ 095 _ 110 ___ 14.0 _ Oak Park

    Tae laidir ________________ 6.2 _ 15.3 _ -3.3 _ 108 _ 108 ___ 12.8 _ Casement


    ___ Con Sensus ___________6.2 _ 15.4 _ -4.1 _ 095 _ 100 ___ 12.4 _


    DOCARCH _______________ 6.1 _ 15.9 _ -5.2 _ 080 _ 105 ___ 11.1 _ Casement

    Bsal ____________________5.8 _ 16.0 _ -3.0 _ 087 _ 098 ___ 10.2 _ Casement

    Kindred Spirit ____________ 5.8 _ 15.5 _ -4.2 _ 142 _ 102 ___ 12.7 _ Oak Park

    200motels _______ (-5) ____5.8 _ 15.4 _ -4.9 _ 094 _ 101 ___ 13.8 _ Shannon

    sryanbruen ______________ 5.7 _ 15.2 _ -4.1 _ 090 _ 100 ___ 12.9 _ Shannon

    waterways _______________5.6 _ 14.9 _ -6.5 _ 077 _ 119 ____ 8.4 _ Valentia

    Dasa29 _________________ 5.4 _ 15.5 _ -4.0 _ 090 _ 110 ___ 15.0 _ Mullingar

    Joe Public _______________ 5.4 _ 15.1 _ -9.4 _ 110 _ 090 ____ 7.5 _ Valentia


    ___ NormaL _____________ 5.3 _ 15.5 _ -6.0 _ 100 _ 100 ___ 12.0 (scoring by climatology)


    Jpmarn _________________ 4.8 _ 15.2 _ -7.5 _ 125 _ 120 ___ 10.2 _ Valentia

    Adam240610 _____(-2) ____4.7 _ 14.7 _ -6.2 _ 070 _ 140 ____ 7.2 _ Valentia

    Danno __________________ 3.7 _ 14.7 _ -8.2 _ 060 _ 150 ____ 3.9 _ Valentia

    =============================

    Post edited by M.T. Cranium on


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,279 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium



    Annual Scoring Summary and Winter segment of Four Seasons contest

    Four seasons points ... 10 for top score, 7 for 2nd, 6 for 3rd, etc, 2 for 7th and 1 for 8th to 12th.

    This year, Con Sensus and Normal points are in the interval between forecasters' points unless tied for 1 pt.


    Rank _ FORECASTER _______ Jan _ Feb __ TOTAL __ Dec 2021 _ Winter total _ pts (Four Seasons)


    _ 01 __Pauldry _____________78 _ 77 ____ 155 ______ (72) ______ 227 _______ 7

    _(02) _____Con Sensus _____ 80 _ 70 ____ 150 ______ (76) ______ 226 _______ 6.5

    _ 02 __Tae laidir ___________ 70 _ 77 ____ 147 ______ (79) ______ 226 _______ 6

    _ 03 __Kindred Spirit ________80 _ 66 ____ 146 ______ (87) ______ 233 ______ 10

    _ 04 __Appledrop ___________67 _ 76 ____ 143 ______ (74) ______ 217 _______ 5

    _ 05 __dacogawa ___________78 _ 63 ____ 141 ______ (34) ______ 175 _______

    _t06 __sunflower3 __________77 _ 60 ____ 137 ______ (68) ______ 205 _______ 1

    _t06 __Mr stonewall _________67 _ 70 ____ 137 ______ (73) ______ 210 _______ 2

    _ 08 __john mac____________82 _ 53 ____ 135 ______ (68) ______ 203 _______ 1

    _ 09 __Artane2002 _________ 59 _ 70 ____ 129 ______ (80) ______ 209 _______ 1

    _t10 __DOCARCH __________ 78 _ 50 ____ 128 ______ (81) ______ 209 _______ 1

    _t10 __Bsal _______________61 _ 67 ____ 128 ______ (88) ______ 216 _______ 4

    _ 12 __MrSkinner __________ 63 _ 63 ____ 126 ______ (87) ______ 213 _______ 3

    _ 13 __sryanbruen _________ 65 _ 58 ____ 123 ______ (61) ______ 184 _______ 1

    _ 14 __Dasa29 ____________ 72 _ 50 ____ 122 ______ (50) ______ 172 _______

    _ (15) __NormaL ___________60 _ 57 ____ 117 ______ (67) ______ 184 _______ 1

    _t15 __waterways __________65 _ 45 ____ 110 ______ (68) ______ 178 _______

    _t15 __M.T. Cranium ________65 _ 45 ____ 110 ______ (63) ______ 173 _______

    _ 17 __Jpmarn _____________54 _ 55 ____ 109 ______ (57) ______ 166 _______

    _ 18 __Joe Public ___________50 _ 57 ____ 107 ______ (69) ______ 176 _______

    _ 19 __200motels __________ 57 _ 49 ____ 106 ______ (73) ______ 179 _______

    _ 20 __Gonzo ______________43 _ 49 _____ 92 ______ (55) ______ 147 _______

    _ 21 __adam240610 ________ 54 _ 26 _____ 80 ______ (65) ______ 145 _______

    _ 22 __Bazlers _____________56 _ --- _____ 56 ______ (30) _______ 86 _______

    _ 23 __esposito ____________52 _ --- _____ 52 ______ (56) ______ 108 _______

    _ 24 __Danno _____________ 30 _ 19 _____ 49 ______ (24) _______ 73 _______


    ==================================================

    note: Forecasters in Dec only not listed.

    Post edited by M.T. Cranium on


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,279 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    So that completes the work on scoring, congrats to Pauldry and tae laidir who tied for the lead in Feb, and are also 1-2 in the annual contest, with appledrop close at 3rd and 4th, also congrats to Kindred Spirit who had the top score for winter and is third in the annual contest.



  • Registered Users Posts: 5,743 ✭✭✭appledrop


    Thanks M.T, delighted with that, I messed up a bit with bonus question.

    What was I thinking of course I should have picked Valentia for Valentines day!



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