February 2022 Boards weather forecast contest

M.T. Cranium · 30-01-2022 6:22am #1

1. Predict the IMT (average temperature at five locations, Claremorris, Mullingar, Casement, Oak Park, Shannon), 1981-2010 "normal" was 5.3 C.

2. Predict the MAX and

3. MIN (each from the 25 stations normally reporting on the met.ie website).

4. Predict the PRC as a percentage of normal values (the data used come from eleven locations, the five mentioned in part one, plus these six: Malin Head, Belmullet, Ballyhaise, Johnstown Castle, Cork, Valentia).

5. Predict the SUN as a percentage of normal values (the data used come from six locations, Belmullet, Casement, Dublin, Cork, Shannon and Valentia).

6. BONUS _ For the 14th, what will be the warmest of the standard weather reporting locations (as seen on the met.ie website under current weather and yesterday's weather) and what will be their daily maximum?

Deadline as always is 0300h 1st (Tuesday, meaning late Monday evening past midnight) and late penalties are 1 point for every four hours or portion, up to 36h (1500h 2nd) after which the penalty increases. Anyone entering after a plausible "MAX" is set on the first, using that value, will also be subject to a cap of 15/20 score in that category.

sryanbruen · 30-01-2022 2:58pm

sryanbruen ________ 5.7 _ 15.2 _ -4.1 _ 90 _ 100 __ Shannon Airport, 12.9

Danno · 30-01-2022 5:57pm

Danno ________ 3.7 _ 14.7 _ -8.2 _ 60 _ 150 __ Valentia, 3.9c

kindredspirit · 30-01-2022 7:36pm

Kindred Spirit _____ 5.8 ___ 15.5 ___ -4.2 ___ 142 ___ 102 ___ Oak Park 12.7°

dasa29 · 31-01-2022 1:22am

Dasa29 ________ 5.4 _ 15.5 _ -4.0 _ 90 _ 110 __ Mullingar, 15c

Bsal · 31-01-2022 1:29am

Bsal ________ 5.8 _ 16.0 _ -3.0 _ 87 _ 98 __ Casement, 10.2

M.T. Cranium · 31-01-2022 2:59am

M. T. Cranium ___________ 7.4 _ 17.2 _ -3.5 _ 080 _ 110 __ 13.5 Oak Park

NormaL ________________ 5.3 _ 15.5 _ -6.0 _ 100 _ 100 __ 12.0 (scoring by climatology)

For NormaL's bonus "guess" I go with the concept that the average country-wide max will be 2 deg above the average country-wide mean, just by random scattering. So by mid-Feb the average max in Ireland is probably pretty close to 10 C, and if there was a very average sort of day, some location would be bound to reach 12 C.

For my IMT, I just have that feeling that very mild conditions are going to dominate and it could get even warmer in the second half like it has in several recent mild Febs. There were some model runs showing cold outbreaks and maybe those will return but I noticed a downgrade recently, and that storm hitting the east coast of the U.S. over the weekend has brought along a very large load of subtropical air that was left behind over the western Atlantic. It has to go somewhere, I suppose.

sunflower3 · 31-01-2022 9:54am

Sunflower3 _____ 6.3___ 15.8___ -4.0___ 95___ 110 ___ Oak Park 14.0°

Artane2002 · 31-01-2022 12:01pm

Artane2002 ________ 6.4 _ 15.8 _ -2.7 _ 085 _ 110 __ Shannon Airport, 13.3

pauldry · 31-01-2022 12:27pm

Pauldry ________ 6.6_ 15.3_ -3.8 _ 91 _ 100__ Valentia, 12.4

Joe Public · 31-01-2022 1:18pm

Joe Public__________ 5.4 _ 15.1 _ -9.4 _ 110 _ 90 __ 7.5 Valentia

Jpmarn · 31-01-2022 1:43pm

Jpmarn ________________ 4.8 _ 15.2 _ -7.5 _ 125 _ 120 __ 10.2 Valentia

Gonzo · 31-01-2022 5:06pm

Gonzo ___________ 7.7 _ 16.8 _ -3.2 _ 073 _ 115 __ 12.4 Shannon

DOCARCH · 31-01-2022 8:25pm

DOCARCH ___________ 6.1 _ 15.9 _ -5.2 _ 080 _ 105 __ 11.1 Casement

John mac · 31-01-2022 9:31pm

John mac ___________ 6.3 _ 15.9 _ -5.0 _ 90 _ 107 __ 14.0 newport

waterways · 31-01-2022 10:10pm

waterways __________5.6 _ 14.9 _ -6.5 _ 77 _ 119 ___ 8.4 Valentia

Tae laidir · 31-01-2022 11:49pm

Tae laidir ______________ 6.2 _ 15.3 _ -3.3 _ 108 _ 108 __ 12.8 Casement

appledrop · 01-02-2022 12:10am

Appledrop___6.8__15.2__-4.1___110__95__13.2 Phoneix Park

mrskinner · 01-02-2022 12:52am

Skinner_____6.4____15____-5____100____110____Sherkin 12.5.

mr.stonewall · 01-02-2022 1:02am

Mrstonewall____7.2____15.6_____-3.3___88__110__shannon, 11.4

dacogawa · 01-02-2022 2:30am

Dacogawa ______________ 6.6 ___ 15.9 ___ -5.7 ___ 104 ___ 110 ___ Valentia, 12.8

adam240610 · 01-02-2022 12:07pm

Adam240610 _____ 4.7 _ 14.7 _ -6.2 _ 70 _ 140 __ Valentia, 7.2c

200motels · 02-02-2022 12:04am

200motels 5.8 _ 15.4 _ -4.9 _ 94 _ 101 __ Shannon Airport, 13.8

M.T. Cranium · 02-02-2022 5:33am

Table of forecasts for February 2022

FORECASTER ____________ IMT _ MAX _ MIN _ PRC _ SUN ___ Max 14th, loc'n

Gonzo __________________ 7.7 _ 16.8 _ -3.2 _ 073 _ 115 ___ 12.4 _ Shannon

M. T. Cranium ____________ 7.4 _ 17.2 _ -3.5 _ 080 _ 110 ___ 13.5 _ Oak Park

MrStonewall ______________7.2 _ 15.6 _ -3.3 _ 088 _ 110 ___ 11.4 _ Shannon

Appledrop _______________ 6.8 _ 15.2 _ -4.1 _ 110 _ 095 ___ 13.2 _ Phoenix Park

Dacogawa _______________ 6.6 _ 15.9 _ -5.7 _ 104 _ 110 ___ 12.8 _ Valentia

Pauldry _________________ 6.6 _ 15.3 _ -3.8 _ 091 _ 100 ___ 12.4 _ Valentia

Artane2002 ______________6.4 _ 15.8 _ -2.7 _ 085 _ 110 ___ 13.3 _ Shannon

MrSkinner _______________ 6.4 _ 15.0 _ -5.0 _ 100 _ 110 ___ 12.5 _ Sherkin

John mac ________________6.3 _ 15.9 _ -5.0 _ 090 _ 107 ___ 14.0 _ Newport

Sunflower3 ______________ 6.3 _ 15.8 _ -4.0 _ 095 _ 110 ___ 14.0 _ Oak Park

Tae laidir ________________ 6.2 _ 15.3 _ -3.3 _ 108 _ 108 ___ 12.8 _ Casement

___ Con Sensus ___________6.2 _ 15.4 _ -4.1 _ 095 _ 100 ___ 12.4 _

DOCARCH _______________ 6.1 _ 15.9 _ -5.2 _ 080 _ 105 ___ 11.1 _ Casement

Bsal ____________________5.8 _ 16.0 _ -3.0 _ 087 _ 098 ___ 10.2 _ Casement

Kindred Spirit ____________ 5.8 _ 15.5 _ -4.2 _ 142 _ 102 ___ 12.7 _ Oak Park

200motels _______ (-5) ____5.8 _ 15.4 _ -4.9 _ 094 _ 101 ___ 13.8 _ Shannon

sryanbruen ______________ 5.7 _ 15.2 _ -4.1 _ 090 _ 100 ___ 12.9 _ Shannon

waterways _______________5.6 _ 14.9 _ -6.5 _ 077 _ 119 ____ 8.4 _ Valentia

Dasa29 _________________ 5.4 _ 15.5 _ -4.0 _ 090 _ 110 ___ 15.0 _ Mullingar

Joe Public _______________ 5.4 _ 15.1 _ -9.4 _ 110 _ 090 ____ 7.5 _ Valentia

___ NormaL _____________ 5.3 _ 15.5 _ -6.0 _ 100 _ 109 ___ 12.0 (scoring by climatology)

Jpmarn _________________ 4.8 _ 15.2 _ -7.5 _ 125 _ 120 ___ 10.2 _ Valentia

Adam240610 _____(-2) ____4.7 _ 14.7 _ -6.2 _ 070 _ 140 ____ 7.2 _ Valentia

Danno __________________ 3.7 _ 14.7 _ -8.2 _ 060 _ 150 ____ 3.9 _ Valentia

=============================

22 forecasts so far, any later ones can be added ... consensus is median value, average of 12th and 13th ranked.

For the location of the warmest temperature on 14th, the forecast choices (and Con Sensus scoring if correct) are

Valentia ____ 7 ___ Con scores 3 if correct

Shannon ___ 5 ___ Con scores 3 if correct

Oak Park ___ 3 ___ Con scores 2 if correct

Casement ___3 ___ Con scores 2 if correct

Phoenix Park _1 ___ Con scores 2 if correct

Mullingar ___ 1 ___ Con scores 1 if correct

Newport ____1 ___ Con scores 1 if correct

Sherkin ____ 1 ___ Con scores 1 if correct

any other location _Con scores 0 if correct

... if any other location takes the max, our scores will be based on highest values at predicted locations

... the scoring will run 7/10 for temp value and 3/10 for location _ 1 and 2 pt superbonus available.

NormaL scores by climatology on this location, will check when we have a location and decide then.

Tae laidir · 08-02-2022 1:56pm

Moore Park 12.9 yesterday may be the warmest so far.

M.T. Cranium · 08-02-2022 10:05pm

After the first week ...

IMT is on 7.4 which is 2.2 above normal.

MAX was 12.9 yesterday, could have edged higher today with 13 C hourly reports in the south.

MIN -0.2 also yesterday at Mullingar.

PRC 109% of normal.

SUN 71% (424/600) with the west particularly cloudy.

Model maps for 14th looking rather chilly at this point. GFS shows temps of 6 to 8 C. ECM similar.

Tae laidir · 09-02-2022 12:54pm

Oak & Moore Parks 13.1 yesterday.

Tae laidir · 09-02-2022 12:55pm

appledrop · 09-02-2022 5:48pm

The forecast is for plenty of frost tonight so we may get our min for the month.

pauldry · 09-02-2022 8:50pm

Tomorrow night is the colder one Appledrop

appledrop · 10-02-2022 10:44pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118607473#Comment_118607473

Your spot on pauldry got it mixed up. Let's see what min we get tonight.

pauldry · 11-02-2022 9:22am

It says Mullingar got to -2.6c but possible a few stations like Markree or Mt Dillon or Dunsany might beat that.

Tae laidir · 12-02-2022 10:31am

Mullingar again-2.6.

Must have been around midnight.

pauldry · 12-02-2022 12:20pm

Might go lower before month end. Next Wed looks max so far. Also a lot of rain this month forecast so that will be well above 100 percent

pauldry · 15-02-2022 1:43am

Not sure but think BONUS question answer is Valentia 10.2c but Sherkin and Belmullet are at 10c too.

M.T. Cranium · 15-02-2022 8:37am

I will post the scoring analysis in a few minutes but the results shown right now (bold type indicates contest choices) are

10.4 _ Valentia

10.3 _ Sherkin Island

10.1 _ Newport

9.5 _ Belmullet, Shannon

9.3 _ Johnstown, Mace Head

9.2 _ Roches Point, Moorepark

9.1 _ Athenry, Claremorris

9.0 _ Mountdillon

8.7 _ Casement

8.4 _ Mullingar

(all colder locations not picked by forecasters not shown)

8.1 _ Oak Park

M.T. Cranium · 15-02-2022 9:58am

Scoring summary for the bonus question (max temp 14th, location)

By the rules, Valentia scores 3 as a location, Con and NormaL both get 3 as that was the most popular choice and often occurs in the climate record. Sherkin Island was a close second and scores 2. Newport was third and scores 1 for location.

See the previous post (edited) for all max temps at locations chosen by various forecasters. It turned out that most of the choices were near the top of the full list, which only includes those stations that were warmer than some of the chosen locations.

In terms of points for temperatures, I looked for the seven groups that were most clustered for the 1-7 points available. This is the result of that part, with additional location and (where applicable) super bonus points indicated.

7 pts _ JPmarn 10.2 (+3 Val, +2 = 12), Bsal 10.2 (Casement).

6 pts _ DOCARCH 11.2 (Casement), MrStonewall 11.4 (Shannon). NormaL 12.0 (+3 = 9).

5 pts _ Pauldry 12.4 (+3 Val = 8); Gonzo 12.4 (Shannon); MrSkinner 12.5 (+2 Sherkin = 7); waterways 8.4 (+3 Val, = 8). Con Sensus 12.4 (+3 = 8).

4 pts _ Kindred Spirit 12.7 (Oak Park); dacogawa 12.8 (+3 Val = 7); tae laidir 12.8 (Casement); sryanbruen 12.9 (Shannon).

3 pts _ Appledrop 13.2 (Ph Park); Joe Public 7.5 (+3 Val = 6); Artane2002 13.3 (Shannon); M.T. Cranium 13.5 (Oak Park); Adam240610 7.2 (+3 Val = 6).

2 pts _ 200motels 13.8 (Shannon); John mac 14.0 (+1 Newport = 3); Sunflower3 14.0 (Oak Park);

1 pt __ Dasa29 15.0 (Mullingar); Danno 3.9 (Val +3 = 4).

M.T. Cranium · 15-02-2022 1:51pm

After two weeks ...

IMT on 6.8 with the second week average 6.3, 1.0 above normal.

MAX 13.1 and MIN -2.6

PRC 118% with the second week average 127%.

SUN 98% with the second week average around 125% (Belmullet has incomplete data).

Bonus 10.4 Valentia, scoring in previous post.

M.T. Cranium · 17-02-2022 12:26pm

New MAX of 15.3 at Moorepark yesterday.

M.T. Cranium · 24-02-2022 2:36am

Oops, I forgot to update third week ... this will be approximately similar but one day late ...

IMT (after 22 days) was 6.9; it was likely 6.8 after 21 days. The third week average (one day late) was 6.7 which was 1.1 above normal.

MAX 15.6, MIN -2.6

PRC now around 170% with the third week (either 15-21 or 16-22) around 270%.

SUN now around 90% with the third week (either 15-21 or 16-22) around 80%.

BONUS was scored earlier.

With at least normal rainfall appearing likely for rest of month, and similar cloud-sunshine ratios, those elements will likely finish near the values now held. Cannot see much chance of MAX or MIN changing, although MIN could fall slightly into the -3 to -4 range, if Thursday night stays clear anywhere, and the IMT could slip back a little with a very cold day expected today (Thursday 24th) then back to relatively mild, should all balance out near 7 C.

There has already been enough rain to guarantee an outcome of 140% for PRC (including 23rd). Our highest forecast of 142% from Kindred Spirit will likely be passed by a wide enough margin that the limited boost will not be activated, but the full mercy of minimum progression will fall gently upon one and all. There likely won't be much mercy for IMT or MIN though. We have forecasts near or even beyond those likely outcomes. MAX and SUN should score relatively well.

M.T. Cranium · 01-03-2022 1:12pm

The IMT has finished on 6.8 C.

I will leave confirmation of other elements to the Monthly Summary tomorrow.

There was no new MIN at midnight as temps were on their way down to morning lows of --3 to -4 C.

PRC will likely be around 165 per cent and SUN was edging back towards a normal outcome.

Will have the exact numbers tomorrow and some scoring.

M.T. Cranium · 02-03-2022 10:40am

Scoring for February 2022

Values used are shown in table after confirmation in MS. No adjustments were required except for SUN.

(note that 15.6 as max in weekly reports was my error, we had 15.3 at first)

FORECASTER ____________ IMT_MAX_MIN_PRC_SUN _ Bonus __ TOTALS

_____ (est or confirmed) _ 6.8_ 15.3_ -2.6_ 162_ 96 __ 10.4 Val

Pauldry _________________23 _ 20 _ 09*_ 08*_ 09 ___ 08 ______ 77

Tae laidir ________________19 _ 20 _ 14*_ 12*_ 08 ___ 04 ______ 77

Appledrop _______________25 _ 19 _ 06*_ 13*_ 10 ___ 03 ______ 76

MrStonewall _____________ 21 _ 17 _ 14*_ 05*_ 07 ___ 06 ______ 70

Artane2002 ______________21 _ 15 _ 20*_ 04*_ 07 ___ 03 ______ 70

___ Con Sensus __________ 19 _ 19 _ 06*_ 09*_ 09 ___ 08 ____ 70

Bsal ____________________15 _ 13 _ 17*_ 05*_ 10 ___ 07 ______ 67

Kindred Spirit ____________ 15 _ 18 _ 05*_ 15*_ 09 ___ 04 ______ 66

Dacogawa _______________ 23 _ 14 _ 01*_ 11*_ 07 ___ 07 ______ 63

MrSkinner _______________ 21 _ 17 _ 01*_ 10*_ 07 ___ 07 ______ 63

Sunflower3 ______________ 20 _ 15 _ 07*_ 09*_ 07 ___ 02 ______ 60

sryanbruen ______________ 14 _ 19 _ 06*_ 06*_ 09 ___ 04 ______ 58

Joe Public _______________ 11 _ 18 _ 00__ 13*_ 09 ___ 06 ______ 57

___ NormaL _____________ 10 _ 18 _ 01*_ 10*_ 09 ___ 09 ____ 57

Jpmarn _________________ 05 _ 19 _ 00__ 14*_ 05 ___ 12 ______ 55

John mac ________________20 _ 14 _ 01*_ 07*_ 08 ___ 03 ______ 53

DOCARCH _______________ 18 _ 14 _ 01*_ 03*_ 08 ___ 06 ______ 50

Dasa29 _________________ 11 _ 18 _ 07*_ 06*_ 07 ___ 01 ______ 50

200motels _______ (-5) ____15 _ 19 _ 01*_ 08*_ 09 ___ 02 _54-5= 49

Gonzo __________________ 16 _ 05 _ 15*_ 02*_ 06 ___ 05 ______ 49

M. T. Cranium ____________ 19 _ 01 _ 12*_ 03*_ 07 ___ 03 ______ 45

waterways _______________13 _ 16 _ 00__ 03*_ 05 ___ 08 ______ 45

Adam240610 _____(-2) ____ 04 _ 14 _ 01*_ 02*_ 01 ___ 06 _28-2= 26

Danno __________________ 00 _ 14 _ 00__ 01*_ 00 ___ 04 ______ 19

============================= --- ==========================

* MIN scores boosted by one point, better half of raw zero scores --> 1 pt. (highest raw score 19/20 activated limited boost, 10/22 zero scores required some boost ... PRC full minimum progression as outcome 170% and max forecast 142% had raw score of 6/15.

==========================================================

(actual forecasts)