February 2022 Boards weather forecast contest

Table of forecasts for February 2022

FORECASTER ____________ IMT _ MAX _ MIN _ PRC _ SUN ___ Max 14th, loc'n

Gonzo __________________ 7.7 _ 16.8 _ -3.2 _ 073 _ 115 ___ 12.4 _ Shannon

M. T. Cranium ____________ 7.4 _ 17.2 _ -3.5 _ 080 _ 110 ___ 13.5 _ Oak Park

MrStonewall ______________7.2 _ 15.6 _ -3.3 _ 088 _ 110 ___ 11.4 _ Shannon

Appledrop _______________ 6.8 _ 15.2 _ -4.1 _ 110 _ 095 ___ 13.2 _ Phoenix Park

Dacogawa _______________ 6.6 _ 15.9 _ -5.7 _ 104 _ 110 ___ 12.8 _ Valentia

Pauldry _________________ 6.6 _ 15.3 _ -3.8 _ 091 _ 100 ___ 12.4 _ Valentia

Artane2002 ______________6.4 _ 15.8 _ -2.7 _ 085 _ 110 ___ 13.3 _ Shannon

MrSkinner _______________ 6.4 _ 15.0 _ -5.0 _ 100 _ 110 ___ 12.5 _ Sherkin

John mac ________________6.3 _ 15.9 _ -5.0 _ 090 _ 107 ___ 14.0 _ Newport

Sunflower3 ______________ 6.3 _ 15.8 _ -4.0 _ 095 _ 110 ___ 14.0 _ Oak Park

Tae laidir ________________ 6.2 _ 15.3 _ -3.3 _ 108 _ 108 ___ 12.8 _ Casement

___ Con Sensus ___________6.2 _ 15.4 _ -4.1 _ 095 _ 100 ___ 12.4 _

DOCARCH _______________ 6.1 _ 15.9 _ -5.2 _ 080 _ 105 ___ 11.1 _ Casement

Bsal ____________________5.8 _ 16.0 _ -3.0 _ 087 _ 098 ___ 10.2 _ Casement

Kindred Spirit ____________ 5.8 _ 15.5 _ -4.2 _ 142 _ 102 ___ 12.7 _ Oak Park

200motels _______ (-5) ____5.8 _ 15.4 _ -4.9 _ 094 _ 101 ___ 13.8 _ Shannon

sryanbruen ______________ 5.7 _ 15.2 _ -4.1 _ 090 _ 100 ___ 12.9 _ Shannon

waterways _______________5.6 _ 14.9 _ -6.5 _ 077 _ 119 ____ 8.4 _ Valentia

Dasa29 _________________ 5.4 _ 15.5 _ -4.0 _ 090 _ 110 ___ 15.0 _ Mullingar

Joe Public _______________ 5.4 _ 15.1 _ -9.4 _ 110 _ 090 ____ 7.5 _ Valentia

___ NormaL _____________ 5.3 _ 15.5 _ -6.0 _ 100 _ 109 ___ 12.0 (scoring by climatology)

Jpmarn _________________ 4.8 _ 15.2 _ -7.5 _ 125 _ 120 ___ 10.2 _ Valentia

Adam240610 _____(-2) ____4.7 _ 14.7 _ -6.2 _ 070 _ 140 ____ 7.2 _ Valentia

Danno __________________ 3.7 _ 14.7 _ -8.2 _ 060 _ 150 ____ 3.9 _ Valentia

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22 forecasts so far, any later ones can be added ... consensus is median value, average of 12th and 13th ranked.

For the location of the warmest temperature on 14th, the forecast choices (and Con Sensus scoring if correct) are

Valentia ____ 7 ___ Con scores 3 if correct

Shannon ___ 5 ___ Con scores 3 if correct

Oak Park ___ 3 ___ Con scores 2 if correct

Casement ___3 ___ Con scores 2 if correct

Phoenix Park _1 ___ Con scores 2 if correct

Mullingar ___ 1 ___ Con scores 1 if correct

Newport ____1 ___ Con scores 1 if correct

Sherkin ____ 1 ___ Con scores 1 if correct

any other location _Con scores 0 if correct

... if any other location takes the max, our scores will be based on highest values at predicted locations

... the scoring will run 7/10 for temp value and 3/10 for location _ 1 and 2 pt superbonus available.

NormaL scores by climatology on this location, will check when we have a location and decide then.

After the first week ...

IMT is on 7.4 which is 2.2 above normal.

MAX was 12.9 yesterday, could have edged higher today with 13 C hourly reports in the south.

MIN -0.2 also yesterday at Mullingar.

PRC 109% of normal.

SUN 71% (424/600) with the west particularly cloudy.

Model maps for 14th looking rather chilly at this point. GFS shows temps of 6 to 8 C. ECM similar.