Ireland's defensive frailty exposed by Russian exercise

o1s1n

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118528076#Comment_118528076

That they can position forces on Europe's west flank?

That they can easily disrupt transatlantic undersea cables?

That nations like us in western Europe aren't as impervious to attack as we think?

There are lots of points they could be making with this.

Whats the point of them skirting around our airspace in bombers?

Gatling

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118528207#Comment_118528207

Didn't America invade Korea......

Oh after the north Koreans attacked and invaded the south backed and supported by russia ,who had the gaul to stand up at the UN and call for restraint and peace talks , while sending Russian forces to attack UN forces deployed to protect South Korea who didn't have a army

Gatling

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118528281#Comment_118528281

They didn't know America hacked into their undersea cables for 30 odd years

_Kaiser_

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118528267#Comment_118528267

That one is easy.. salaries, pensions and consultancy contracts or vanity projects at massive expense. Plus the public service overpays for everything (not their money, they don't care and the suppliers know it), and will basically squander anything left at the end of the year so they get the same next year.

The attitudes from some here are amazing though - essentially "can't someone else do it?" in regards protecting our sovereignty and coast/airspace, and often the same countries that they belittle or pontificate about how much better we are on x,y,z policy (usually limited to trending social policies).

We really are a selfish, insular little people - simultaneously both servile and expecting others to look after our interests.. why? Because "everyone loves the Irish?"

SuperTortoise

Someone else posted that we spend 800m a year on defence and i presumed it was a typo, unfortunately google says we do.

We spend 800m a year on defence? Seriously, where is it all going??

MaccaTacca

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118528422#Comment_118528422

We are embaressing.

Gatling

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118528433#Comment_118528433

Half of that goes on pensions and wages we were about to hit the 1bn spend because the aircorp need a few extra bits and a new boat for the navy if I remember correctly

Flinty997

Why do you think that's a lot.

It's about a third of a hospital.

https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/products-eurostat-news/-/ddn-20180518-1

Gatling

Can anyone guess how much money we send to other countries in aid ....

SuperTortoise

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118528531#Comment_118528531

It's not about the ammount of money as such, it's what we are getting for 800m a year.

We take the piss out of Russia for being corrupt with their politicians and their higher up's taking backhanders, yet we're every bit a bad.

Hyperbole much?

Ireland has nothing at all even remotely like the kind of issues Russia has with corruption. It’s basically the other end of the league table.

I'm aware of companies that had to literally pull out of Russia due to rampant corruption.

It doesn’t even have what could be called a functioning democracy. In objective analysis it’s classified as an authoritarian regime.

Flinty997

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118528619#Comment_118528619

Logically we can't be as bad. The budget is too small to pay for the same level of corruption.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118528619#Comment_118528619

Are we, did I miss the bulletin where Mary-Lou had been jailed, or perhaps shot in front of Govt buildings?

Gatling

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118528709#Comment_118528709

Aren't the shinners pro Putin

Pa ElGrande

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/2058229572/irelands-defensive-frailty-exposed-by-russian-exercise

There is only one country whose interests are served by invasion . . . and it's the same one for quite a few hundred years now. France and Spain and Germany only ever made token efforts. We are on the end of the supply chain Irelands major issue in the event of a major conflagration will be securing supplies. The best course of action is to stay "neutral" and limit ourselves to the less dangerous but still lethal peace keeping., there is no win for Irishmen being used as cannon fodder for major powers. The country could do with better marine patrols, that is about securing fishing rights and restricting drug smuggling.

brickster69

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118528732#Comment_118528732

Best way to be to be fair. If you are neutral just keep out of things and get on with it. Once you openly start taking sides or politicians start having an opinion on matters publicly then neutrality is gone.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118528723#Comment_118528723

I think I'll steer clear of whether one inhaled or not arguments.

She being leader of the opposition in Ireland. If Ireland were as bad as Russia, then Meehole would have had her locked up or shot.

tastyt

So let me get this right , it’s Russia v the Limerick hurlers ?

Gatling

Neutral .....

If the **** hits the fan and Russia and china kick off does anyone think they will sit there and say ah sure there grand Ireland is neutral , Russia had a nonaggression and friendship treaty with Russia ,who then invaded , occupied and annexed part of Ukraine,

So yeah can anyone actually explain the idea we wouldn't be touched ....

Look at Sweden they are neutral but yet have the ability to defend their airspace, waters and borders ,and yet they have public services , public transport , hospitals , schools ,and they export billions on weapons and defense technologies.

The swiss are neutral ,and they can defend their borders and skies ,and they also happen to be on the top 8 biggest arms exporters in the world...

But yet here in Ireland we get told not to worry we're neutral, I'm sure plenty of people in 1939 were told not to worry we're your friends we mean you no harm

inainmdé

So the Ruskies gave us the heads up that they're going to be doing drills down the road from us. We'll be expecting it, and on guard.

Meanwhile they also plan on going after a load of undersea cables in the Atlantic.

Look at Tonga at the moment; the devastation is as-yet unclear, but their future has been described as "grim" by commentators. Without comms or access from aid relief (the island was zero-covid), we can only speculate how bad things are.

Ireland has a history of "neutrality" which involves letting the Yanks refuel in Shannon. Back in August, a warship was spotted off the coast.

“The lack of primary radar is the reason other state entities have been probing our airspace for years with high-altitude bombers and escorts. These foreign aircraft can see us but we cannot see them.

“While the 2015 White Paper recognises that radar surveillance is a priority, there has been no meaningful action by government since then to deliver on it. Our Naval Service is now understaffed and under-equipped with no capability to see below sea level and normal operation of units is an ongoing issue,” Ms Clarke said.

“Our own Defence Forces staffing levels have been impacted by reducing numbers over the last number of years and it is an area of concern repeatedly highlighted by representative bodies.

“Reports of Naval Service ships being anchored or running on skeleton crews due to severe understaffing are hugely worrying.

“International testing exercises, such as these latest reports from Russia, are placing increased pressure on our already over-stretched Defence Forces that successive governments have failed to invest in and support properly...”

It's fair sinister and as a nation who sucks up to powerful countries, we are shockingly vulnerable against incursion.

purplepanda

The massive decline in Ireland's defence spending since 1980. Year by year budget since 1960. From 1.67% of GDP to less than 0.3% of GDP.

Most of the decline happened under Fianna Fáil governments so no surprises there.

https://www.macrotrends.net/countries/IRL/ireland/military-spending-defense-budget

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118528894#Comment_118528894

GDP over that period expanded enormously. Our military expenditure is tiny, but using % GDP makes little sense here due to how our economy works …our GDP is bonkers and reflects flows of multinational companies.

Ireland spent US$1.126 billion

U.K. spent US$53.6 billion

Irish pop is roughly 14 times smaller, so to a huge U.K. spending levels we would need to spend 3.9 billion USD or about €3.45bn

Even to hit current US military spending levels (lower than usual at the moment) on Irish scale is only US$ 4.81bn

2% of Irish GDP on military would be USD 9.24 billion would would be absolutely ridiculous. We could get gold plated tanks at that rate. Our nominal most recent GDP is  $476bn

We should be ensuring we have high tech reconnaissance. That’s probably all we need.

AllForIt

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118524980#Comment_118524980

It would take only one nuclear warhead directed at Moscow to act as a deterrent.

Flinty997

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118528912#Comment_118528912

One more you mean. How many are pointed at it currently?

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118525290#Comment_118525290

It irritates me terribly that we can't protect our own nation.

It wouldn't matter how much we spent on defense spending, we still probably wouldn't have enough to protect our own nation. That's the real rub. Military hardware is expensive in itself (especially since we have no arms industry of our own), maintenance of hardware is incredibly expensive, along with the costs of train/maintain the level of ability to compete with a major power. I can just see the pilots of Rynair switching from their flights, to become interceptor pilots.

Yes, Ireland is wealthy... on paper... but the fact of the matter is that we're terrible at maintaining/improving our existing services, that having a military to keep capable of dealing with Russia.. would be an absolute joke. Grand, if we had to deal with Afghanistan, then maybe we could rise to the occasion, but a major power that has been a military power for over a century? Christ, you're all smoking some good ****.

Remember we would need to maintain an arsenal of weaponry to meet a conflict... not just the weapons of war but the ammunition/fuel to support such efforts. That's an expense that would be hard to push past most Irish people.

Would make more sense to provide funding to one of our neighbors to shoulder some to the costs, in return for help.. but even then, few nations would be bothered. Anyway, why would Russia bother with Ireland? Yes, Ireland has some strategic qualities, but taking the UK would provide greater benefits to Russia, and a neutral Ireland, would encourage the US not to nuke the area in retaliation.

Yurt2

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118528955#Comment_118528955

We need to adopt a bit of realism and have some sort of defence strategy in bad / worst-case scenarios.

Singapore is a country that is an interesting case study. It's a tiny country that knows full well it could defeat few countries in its region in a war if it came to it. It was born into a (formerly) bad neighborhood with communist insurgencies and erratic dictatorships surrounding it. The SE Asia region is a lot calmer now but it still maintains its doctrine and plans in case things get heated again.

The doctrine: Be a poison shrimp - if it gets swallowed, the larger fish is in for an uncomfortable time, and make it not worth their while going after it. They maintain a qualitative and not quantitative force, and they know what needs protecting (the straights for maritime traffic, water security from Malaysia etc).

Now, we really don't need to tool ourselves up like Singapore (who maintain a cutting edge air force in Singapore with detachments in Australia and the US) - but we probably should have enough to make sure bad actors act the b*llocks in our airspace and maritime area in times of war when countries like France or the UK are too preoccupied to look after our interests. There's a good thread in the military forum about the feasibility of purchasing second-hand interceptors etc. I don't know are they talking through their hoop, but it seems like something Ireland could do without breaking the bank.

A properly resourced and modestly sized civilian intelligence agency is probably something that finally needs to be looked at (if NZ has one, why shouldn't we? And elements in the Defence Forces have been calling for it for many years). We don't want to be a soft target for economic interference or espionage, or indeed political interference and cyberattacks.

John Doe1

This is all because of the sanctions on Russia are crushing their economy so they need to do a flag waving exercise.

Russia is a poor country with a much lower strength military than the US. Starting a war would be suicidal for Russia unless China joins in...which would be armageddon

https://www.nationmaster.com/country-info/compare/Russia/United-States/Military

Also, If our army cannot even do the basics of defending our neutrality, we may aswell disband it.

Shao Kahn

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118528788#Comment_118528788

So remind me again, what happened to us in 1939?

Did we get invaded by anyone?

Unfortunately, some of our citizens have an inflated ego regarding our strategic importance in the world. In terms of geopolitics, we're pretty much an irrelevance. Hence why our Island was not seen as strategically significant enough for the Nazis to invade as a staging post for the planned invasion of Britain. The only bombs dropped on us in WW2 were largely by mistake.

The only real resource our Island had, was the timber from our forests. Once the Brits had essentially deforested our entire Island, they had no real strong desire to stay here. Of course our history books like to trumpet the patriotic stuff about us chasing the Brits out, but in reality they made very little effort to hang onto the territory.

Militarily, they committed next to nothing in terms of manpower or resources to our war of independence. Even with their commitments in the various theaters of battle in WW1, the Brits still had one of the largest standing armies in the entire world, and just like the Russians, could have easily crushed us militarily if they wanted to. The only real reason they hung onto the 6 counties, was because of the excellent ship building industry in Belfast which was very important to them at that time. Had they known H&H would die on it's ar$e a short time later, they likely would have given the entire Island back to us without much fuss.

The same reason the Brits had no desire to crush us militarily, is the same reason the Russians would have no interest in our territory. We're not strategically important, we have no significant resources worth invading the Island for. We're irrelevant basically. In fact, it would be a complete waste of valuable military manpower and resources to stage any sort of military campaign on our Island.

Which is fantastic for us btw. This is exactly what you want to be in the world, if your desire is to live in peace and neutrality. Be invisible. Nobody is looking in our direction, and that is precisely how we should aim to keep things.

The gung-ho types, who would have us maintaining an expensive bloated military, so we could roll out into the atlantic and butt heads with a major world power like the Russians... should be (and thankfully usually are) ignored. These reactionary types would quite happily put our citizens and military personnel at risk, just so we could wave around some shiny new toys and look cool on the international stage.

Notions like this, are essentially a pointless exercise in vanity.

Pa ElGrande

How do we in Ireland get pulled into a conflict with Russia? Article 42.7 of the Lisbon treaty.

Ireland also contributes men and equipment to the Nordic battlegroup. Finland has a host nation support memorandum of understanding with NATO.

In event of war Ireland will draft its civil service into the military. . . </sarc>

In comparison, he said Ireland has 354 civil servants in the Department of Defence compared to the establishment figure of 9,500 professional soldiers, giving a ratio of one civil servant to 26 soldiers.

But he said more recent figures on staffing levels show there are only 8,434 soldiers, giving a current ratio of one civil servant for every 23 soldiers.

The Irish army has only one purpose, that being to put down internal insurrection against the Irish state (e.g. IRA), other roles like peacekeeping are observer roles. The only reason Ireland will ever get attacked (not invaded) is to stymie US and British operations by destroying facilities here.

Don't forget since the aftermath of World War 2 - Britain has downgraded its forces substantially (they are often short of ammunition) and since the end of the cold war NATO spending has been substantially reduced by most of it's participating member governments. There is very little commitment to NATO, no point beating up the Irish military lack of resources to deal with imagined threats from superpowers. In event of major conflagration the security issue for Irelands population is maintaining supplies of essential materials.

Nobody is saying we should build an army to compete with the Russians. Literally not one poster has asked for this.

What some posters are saying is that we wish Ireland was just slightly less pathetic in this regard.