Ireland's defensive frailty exposed by Russian exercise

Kermit.de.frog

https://twitter.com/RobGilbey/status/1485021361747775489

Looks like once again Ireland's lack of any defensive or reconnaissance capability is being exposed and will be alarming to European neighbors which, after this, may surely reach the point of demands to get our house in order.

It's not about being able to defeat anyone - it's about making aggressive moves as difficult as possible.

We occupy a very important geographical area in a European context, particularly our seas, and we are consistently failing to provide a basic sufficient defensive capability to assure our neighbors.

This is the Swiss approach. They know full well they can be invaded but the point is to make an aggressor think twice before doing it, that it will cost them in the process.

I can not understand how some Irish people can go on about "neutrality" when we can't even do the basics in terms of defence of that so-called neutrality. We don't have sonar, we don't have proper military radar, we don't have so much as one aircraft capable of pursuit within our own airspace.

It's all a spoof and it's frankly embarrassing some of the stories in the papers today on this test.

And it's selfish too.

What we are basically saying to our neighbors is we want to run down our defence forces, not take our responsibilities to our own country seriously, that puts you at risk, spend nothing because we'd rather pay inflated salaries to our public servants....AND now Simon Coveney wants to raise this with foreign ministers in Brussels. i.e "we want your help"!?

Don't be surprised if the reaction is both perplexed and frosty.

We need a serious conversation about defence policy in this country.

No one is looking for some bloated military, just the basics which we don't have.

Fiery mutant

Agree 100% with everything you have said. I read a post on this site yesterday where a poster stated that spending more Money on defence was a waste of money. Then in the next paragraph said that if we were ever attacked, the UK and France would be obliged to defend us.

The mind boggles.

micosoft

Look. I don't think Ireland should be neutral. In fact I think it's deeply unethical. We don't need to join NATO either and all the baggage it brings. We should join and promote EU defence structures that have democratic accountability and not the current almost criminal basis of having Russia, China, USA, UK and France decide our options (the moronic triple lock).

That said, re Russian exercises. What exactly do people propose? I think we need to invest more for what's right for us and our needs i.e. mostly fisheries and drug interdiction, UN peacekeeping work, rather than building out a defence capability against a once in a blue moon event that literally does not present anything other than an annoyance. Is it worth taking ten billion out to protect against the odd Bear bomber and some clapped out Northern fleet ships? Ultimately Ireland could never respond to Russia other than by integrating as a component of a larger taskforce, perhaps French led given our new Strategic Reality. And the future of warfare is not in ships or planes. Perhaps the solution is Ireland becomes the asymmetric warfare partner of EU focusing on Cyberwarfare because we have the people and companies to do it. Having Ireland focus as the Cyber defence centre of EU possibly makes sense and avoids seeing Mick Wallace running across airports. We need to think differently here folks because that is the future of defence and offence...

As for folk saying we depend on UK/US. Actually they depend on us. They will intervene due to their own vital interest of keeping Ireland secure given it's position. If the Americans and British want to pay for keeping their sea lanes open they can do it. Nothing wrong with that.

Gatling

Just think over the next 10 years we will spend over €200bn + on social welfare alone ,and we only spend about 800 million a year on defense which half of that figure goes to wages and pensions,

Denmark with a similar population and GDP have a well equipped army ,navy and air force ,yes they pay higher taxes but it's not as if we are a poor country

Victor

Russia has more than a thousand nuclear warheads ready to go 24x7. Will we be expected to complete to that level?

golondrinas

Bring over a few Irish American pilots who can pilot high grade American fighter and reconnaissance planes. Give them Irish passports. Put our liverage on the aircraft . Monitor the “ exercises “ and send them back when threat has passed . I’m sure the U.S would enjoy skin in the game. The lads at Baldonell would not mind a few bits of real hardware about the place. Sorted.

PS We can’t afford to build houses for our own and the soon to be 20,000 undocumented looking for them. So stop this crap about spending hundreds of millions for real aircraft that will add no value to the country that couldn’t in any case defend itself.

banie01

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118524980#Comment_118524980

It's not about competition with the great powers and that's a very loaded way to frame any discussion on Ireland having a greater appreciation and ability to police and at least offer a notional defensive capability.

There are plenty of posts on the military forum highlighting the current frailty of our position but to summarize.

We are the western approach to Europe. Straddling multiple communications lines, shipping lanes and with responsibility for a large EEZ and a huge volume of Atlantic Airspace.

We have zero airspace monitoring capabilities. Zero ability to police our airspace and only very basic point defence capability.

Our ships whilst in the main modern, have no significant self defence capability let alone an offensive ability or the ability to impose itself on anything larger than a compliant trawler. There is also no anti-sub detection or attack capabilities.

These are all significant gaps in our ability to at least defend and impose our sovereignty in our areas of responsibility.

CreadanLady

The long and the short of it is this.....what would be the point of investing in all this hi-tech defence equipment? Every other EU state around us and the UK has all this equipment to beat the band, and then some, so why would why bother squandering money on it when we can just piggy back on the back of them.

And realistically, if we have this equipment, what actual material benefit is it? Oh we'd have a radar so we could see TU95s. Great... so what? Then we'd have a few interceptors, so we can fly beside them for 5 minutes. Great....so what? So does every other air force along northern and western europe. The Russians are gonna do it anyway, so what the hell does it matter? We should just let them at it. At the end of the day Russia are not a threat to Ireland in any material way. In the unlikely even of there being any confrontation, it will be between Russia and other EU forces, so we will just fall under the protection of their umbrella.

And even if all the above wasn't enough of a reason, the biggest barrier against defence spending is this....THERE ARE NO VOTES IN IT!! Any TD advocating defence investment involving armament would be committing political suicide. The electorate are not interested in it, especially when hospitals are in bits and we have mouldy cold prefabs for schools.

Larbre34

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118524980#Comment_118524980

Of course not.

But it should be expected that as a maritime nation, with a colossal EEZ, for which and in which we have both an interest and a responsibility, we are able to put to sea a force that can intercept and threaten legitimately.

At the moment, none of our Naval patrol ships have stand-off, anti-ship or anti-air missile systems.

Only three of the European non-aligned States with Navies are in that position; us, Malta and Cyprus. And Cyprus are about to take delivery of two Israeli built patrol ships that do have the Rafael NLOS anti-ship missile system.

Overall, pretty pathetic for us.

Pussyhands

The Irish will have their tails in between their legs when they ask the Brits to protect them.

CreadanLady

i don't see why we would need ships with advance defence or offence capability. Against what threat? There is no threat that is reasonable forseeable? And if there is one, then it is likely to be an incident of international significance, so the Royal Navy or another EU navy will step in.

Basically, we have the naval and airspace protection, but we have it all for free and other countries bear the burden of staffing, equiping and paying for it all. I think our current situation is the cutest and most shrewd of all possible strategies.

But of course the Walter Mitty wannabe commando boys on Boards get all out of joint because there isn't an aircraft carrier in Haulbowline. Sure we have newish ships and half of them are tied up because no-one in their right mind wants to go on them for the rubbish money they get paid for it.

The government's unwillingness to pay the defence forces any sort of reasonable wage just reflects their attitude to it - "we don't want or need it so we'll pay them peanuts and hope that most of them fúck off after a while and let the whole thing wither down so that it costs as little as possible"

They may get their head out of their arse and wise up to what the priorities should be in this country.

Housing, Healthcare, Climate, and Transport. Defence spending has literally nothing to contribute to any of that.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118525216#Comment_118525216

What do you mean when? The Brits have been protecting the Republic for decades. For all our talk we can't protect ourselves.

Gregor Samsa

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118524837#Comment_118524837

2% our gdp us probably more than Russia spends on its military

I'm intrigued by this statement. I would have thought it was blatantly obvious that 2% of our GDP is less than the Russian military budget (and a very quick Google search confirms that). Am I missing something?

CreadanLady

To those advocating defence spending....why don't ye run as candidates in the next election. One of yer policies can be defence spending..See how far you get canvasing that on the doorsteps. None of the parties will want to know ye.

That is the reality of it. And it ain't changing any time soon.

Frostynight

It irritates me terribly that we can't protect our own nation. Agreed, every time the Russians breach our space, we call the RAF anyway.

Neutrality I think is such a delusion. As if an aggressor would accept that from a small nation particularly. It would be nice if the politicians stop talking about neutrality and the people who vote for them, stop believing it. The Taliban acknowledged Ireland's provisions to the US during the Iraq/Afghanistan invasion. As if that's neutral.

99% of what Trump said and did was crazy or selfish or dangerous. But he did mention that Europe is cheapskating on NATO defence. He wasn't wrong, or at least the people on his team highlighting that to him.

I'm wary of a centralised European army for which we'd have so little say. But pretending we can defend ourselves with no equipment is simply delusional.

The area maked out is in international water not much further from the UK or France than us.

If they aren't intimidated by their aircraft carriers, fighters, patrol aircraft, subs and nukes why would they be intimated by anything we could field.

I do believe we should integrate more into the EU defence structures though.

ebbsy

On the plus side, we would be flooded with Russian beauties?????

Flinty997

How would any of this stop these exercises.

Kermit.de.frog

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118525207#Comment_118525207

If you think sponging off the neighbours is going to work much longer you are seriously mistaken.

There will be demands coming soon from our neighbours who are not going to tolerate us being feckless on Europe's western approaches because it leaves them vulnerable.

The Russians intentionally chose this area to make a statement to Europe about exactly where it's weakness in the Atlantic is. They are going to take note of that.

Your attitude is let's just leech off everyone else.

Who pays the bill every time an RAF fighter is scrambled because we can't be bothered?

Those bills could very easily end up landing on our doorstep with a public kick up the hole to boot and it wouldn't be before time.

BrianD3

"One of the richest countries in the world" yet with barely a token military. We save billions per year with this approach and what do we do with these billions? Seeing as we clearly have a world class health service, that's where the money saved must be going, oh wait.

We are a cute hoor, stroke pulling and half arsed country. Not investing in our military because shur everyone likes us and the Brits/US/EU will defend us. Also, shur, even if we did have a military, it would never be enough to compete with a superpower anyway so why bother.

Also, during the financial crisis we sneered at the other PIIGS, especially Greece. We needed a bailout but Jaysus at least we weren't as bad as those idiots. If, like Greece, we had a belligerent on our doorstep necessitating very considerable military spending, how would we have fared?

Gatling

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118525284#Comment_118525284

Maybe go back to bed 🤦

Flinty997

I don't get why people are losing their minds over a very minor exercise.

CreadanLady

Absolutely my attitude is to sponge off everyone else. Why should the Irish tax payer pay for it, when we can just not pay for it knowing that others, (who are far more capable militarily on a bad day that we could ever imagine to be) will just step in to fill the gap.

Ass someone else said, the location was about the same distance from France and the UK as it was to Ireland. Why should we be the ones to do it? Let the Brits do it. If the Brits got a Scud or two shoved up their holes it would be no more than they deserve anyway.

CalamariFritti

No we cant defend ourselves. So what? I mean who the f*** would attack us in the first place?

If Ireland was genuinely attacked by UK, Russia, China, US, whoever then obviously world order and civilisation is broken down already and half the planet most likely in ashes.

Plus we are broke already. A bunch of fighter planes would make us quadruple broke.

I think you need to get over this.

Kermit.de.frog

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118525404#Comment_118525404

We are not broke. We are one of the richest countries in the world and can well afford a defensive capability commensurate with our size like everyone else.

The real issue is an inferiority complex in my view.

Glock17

Tbh, Ireland doesn't have the economy to support a competent military......

A jet fighter might cost 100m. A warship a billion. The irish taxpayer doesnt have the money for that type of investment....

What Ireland should do is join NATO and invest in niche capabilities. Maybe something like transport aircraft.

If you want a serious military youd also have to work hand in hand with the Brits....

CGI_Livia_Soprano

I think some of the lads in here need to put the Tom Clancy books away and join the real world. All this "we need to increase spending on our military" stuff is very very American and very very stupid. Russian aren't seriously going to launch an invasion into Ireland and neither will anyone else.

Gatling

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118525418#Comment_118525418

If we can send hundreds of millions to feed starving children in Africa (not African countries use our taxes to fund their own militaries including jets and attack helicopters)

seamus

What would be the point in increasing our military spending?

Why would a billion euro on some fancy ships and technology be better than the same amount of money on health or social supports or housing?

More military hardware does nothing except satisfy some niche egotism about sovereignty and defence? If we become strategically important in the event of a large conflict there is precisely fvck all we can do to stop an incursion even if we spent every penny of our GDP on defence.

Isn’t there a serious amount of communication cables lying on the sea bed in the area the Russians want to do their exercises in?

With the largest tech companies in the world operating their European HQs from Ireland, wouldn’t this be a concern?

Gatling

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118525443#Comment_118525443

Social housing rents owed over 130 million ,

Housing asylum seekers 250 million and then some more on legal aid,

Tens millions sent to Africa - who use it on buy military equipment.

20 billion per year on social welfare ,

How much more should we spend and fix nothing

seamus

What will a couple of hi-tech ships and radars "fix"?

Astartes

Oh no the Russians...

seamus

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118525459#Comment_118525459

No, that's all a bit south of the planned area. There are no cables really coming into the south-west, it's weird. I think it's cheaper to go around land them in Dublin than try to build a strong backbone from Cork/Kerry across the country.

This is sabre-rattling from the Russians. The perfect spot to piss off both the EU and the Americans.

bob mcbob

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118525432#Comment_118525432

They don't have to.

in case it has missed your attention, Ireland is currently in the process of moving towards renewable energy. This will mean that Ireland will be very dependent on wind turbines in the Atlantic for power, heating light, etc. Who would stop hostile nations, terrorists, etc from crippling Ireland by taking these turbines out?

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118525445#Comment_118525445

That's about 7,000,000,000 EUR per year?

We'd want to be deploying our own aircraft carriers and nukes for that sort of money.

Would every working person be happy to pay 3,000 more in tax per year to fund it?

Gatling

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118525470#Comment_118525470

It would give us the ability to protect the country and being able to monitor foreign military vessels , Fisheries and drug smuggling...

Lets keep giving people something for nothing and say aren't we great.

Look at the swiss neutral country and yet one of largest weapons exporters in the world ,worth 100s of billions imagine if we could do similar we could offset the cost of military spending and still be able to fund other services

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118524980#Comment_118524980

no, but the fact is we’d never even see them coming if they choose to body us.

we can’t even see the threats coming, never mind defend against them. That’s the problem tho, we can’t see them before it’s too late.

CGI_Livia_Soprano

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118525515#Comment_118525515

To what end?

The long and the short of it is this.....what would be the point of investing in all this hi-tech defence equipment? Every other EU state around us and the UK has all this equipment to beat the band, and then some, so why would why bother squandering money on it when we can just piggy back on the back of them.

mortified to think this is how people view our defence capabilities.

lawrencesummers

all this talk of increasing our defense capabilities is akin to an U8 hurling team with 12 players wanting to get a S&C coach so they can take on Limerick.

If any modern army decides it wants to drive its tanks up grafton street then we wont be stopping them anytime soon

FintanMcluskey

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118525052#Comment_118525052

100%

Absolute bolloxoligy to think we can afford investment and training in our defense forces at the scale required.

And if we did have the money, where the **** will we find defense force personnel?

We are told we couldn't increase ICU capacity in 2 years because of the training, infrastructure and personnel requirements, so I'm sure the defense force requirements are no different.

Yurt2

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118525558#Comment_118525558

It's pretty much our defence policy for the past 50 odd years.

The only reason we can retain defence forces members in any numbers is the financial carrot of tours in Golan or Lebanon which is bankrolled by the UN. Essentially our defence is cross-subsidised by everyone else and we cross our fingers that everyone will be sound to us in case anything seriously bad happens to the European security picture.

FintanMcluskey

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118525418#Comment_118525418

Utter rubbish.

We are one of the most heavily indebted nations in the world. 3rd I think.

The only people who would think we are one of the richest are people who have no idea about the GDP problem in Ireland

CGI_Livia_Soprano

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118525560#Comment_118525560

A 12-boy u8 hurling team is more likely to play, and beat, Limerick than we see any tanks rolling down Grafton Street.

The same goes for anyone bombing our entire power and telecommunications infrastructures too. Like I said, that's the stuff of Tom Clancy novels/Michael Bay movies. Some of the lads in here need to wake up and put down their Die Hard 4.0 DVDs.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118525543#Comment_118525543

I'd be happy to pay for refugees if needed.

How would Irish fighter jets or patrol aircraft deter Putin in invading Ukraine in any way?

What is the link between the two?

Capt'n Midnight

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118525353#Comment_118525353

The exercises are in international waters. So AFAIK we have no legal basis to interfere with them anymore than we'd have with NATO exercises in the same area.

We currently spend €1 billion on defence. And most of that is on wages. And we'd need to spend some cash to improve morale and headcount before we start on new kit.

Back in the 1950's the Brits reckoned the best way to deal with Russian warships was a low level attack by land based aircraft. There's a Buccaneer out in Weston airfield. More realistically we could use long range surveillance drones in future.

seamus

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118525515#Comment_118525515

Investment in renewables is arguably a form of defence spending as it massively decentralises your grid.

If someone wanted to cripple our power supply now, two well-placed blasts at Moneypoint and Aghada, not to mention damage to the Corrib pipe, could leave us with rolling blackouts for months. And wouldn't require many people to carry out.

By contrast if you sent a gunship up the Atlantic coast to start opening fire on Wind turbines, you'd be barely halfway through your first field before US, UK & EU forces were on top of you. And Ireland's grid could cope with that loss

That location is, hardly coincidentally, also full of transatlantic fibres terminating mostly in the SW of England and NW France, but it’s the biggest group of fibres linking the US and Europe.

I'm beginning to wonder are they planning to do something like damage cables while launching an invasion of Ukraine. It would be an enormous distraction if the internet suddenly jolted to a crawl and all sorts of services were disrupted.

The other side of it is the EU and others would place absolutely crippling long term sanctions on Russia for pulling a stunt like that, but I’m just wondering if this could be more significant than a little bit of testing…

This hybrid warfare stuff could get weird. I mean they’re not exactly shy of doing cyber attacks. Something like that wouldn’t be inconceivable.

lawrencesummers

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118525632#Comment_118525632

The point is how far behind in resources the irish military capability is, and even significant investment wouldn't bring it up to anything worthwhile.

The recent article about spending on charters for long haul flights because of not having a capable airceaft tells us everything you need to know.

The u8 hurling team with aspirations of beating limerick doesnt even have hurleys.

I gotta say. All this war games chat is so much better than covid chat 😂