Share Picks 2022

retalivity

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119803080#Comment_119803080

Id'd imagine there'd be a medium term bump in the next few months before next earnings, but don't think you'll see it at $300 a share again.

Long-term, they need to dump the metaverse, and concentrate on what they already have - Instagram, Whatsapp, and FB

patsy_mccabe

Meta at $100 is 7.5 times Free Cash Flow. It's return on Investment is currently 31%. All impressive figures. The problem is the spending on the Metaverse. If it pays off, $100 is a bargain. If not, better to sit on the fence.

Mad_maxx

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119806315#Comment_119806315

Yes but their are plenty of high growth companies trading at low PE at the moment, I’d sooner buy Amazon, Google etc

jams100

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119806315#Comment_119806315

As someone invested in Meta the main problem is trying to even picture what the metaverse even looks like? How is it eventually monitized? The current $1,499 headset is clearly not going to work en masse at that price no matter how good it is.

As a current shareholder I'm quite frustrated watching $10 Billion a year go into this with seemingly no basis for any return on that investment. (I have no problem with meta investing in the metaverse...Zuckerberg is clearly a smart individual, but the amount of money they are ploughing in is quite ridiculous). And the return period is probably about 10 years not the 3 or 4 years for the likes of Intel.

Saying all that it's cheap on so many fundamental levels, and, on the off that Zuckerberg announced that they were halving the amount they are spending on the metaverse in their next earnings call and they are cutting costs this stock could easily pop 25%.

I can totally see why people see this as a value trap, I'm second guessing myself from time to time on this one too but A LOT of bad news is already in the current share price.

Is the risk worth the reward? Time shall tell

Shedite27

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119809126#Comment_119809126

Yeah the Facebook app is dead, as revenue per view down 20% - companies have realised its not as valuable to market on.

costs up with revenue flat is to be expected I guess, given the mets development. Feels to me like they should have developed the meta verse as a side project for a few years before releasing it to public. Right now it looks like they’re spending $80bn developing a new version of The Sims.

if you’re investing, you gotta be willing to hold for 5+ years

transylman

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119806315#Comment_119806315

I can't see VR paying off. It's an impressive novelty, like 3d movies or VR games. Problem is once the novelty wears off there isn't enough there to justify the expense or inconvenience of it. And I say that as the owner of a Valve index.

Even if it did have some success, its never going to generate the kind of revenue he gets from Facebook ads.

NiceFella

Very naive investor here.

Invested through covid and down prob 80% overall.

I stupidity got caught by the Nio EV hysteria some while back and at the top I would have made a tidy profit but alas went to hell. I then switched to baba as it was given Charlie Mungers blessing and lost again. LoL

It wouldn't bother me at all to lose it all at this stage. Any suggestions from the knowledgeable boardees on what could be a big winner in the next few years, say 5 years?. Again I don't mind losing it tbh. I've it written off at this stage but could see value in the current climate perhaps.

KilOit

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119816481#Comment_119816481

Although boring with no great swings, I find ETF's grand for popping money into every payday, don't have the interest to following markets most of the time. Mostly stick with tech.

delta_bravo

Agree with ETFs but the tax treatment here is so onerous. If you're buying a few each month particularly you'll have to keep track of when the eight year timer ends and you've to pay the tax. Its a real pity as they are generally much more stable than randomly picking a share and I think they should be promoted.

weemcd

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119817222#Comment_119817222

What do you recommend looking at? FWIW I am living in the UK so the allowances for tax are much more generous, have a Degiro account and also just opened a S&S ISA on freetrade, ideally would like to put money in every month or every couple of months and forget about it.

awec

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119798980#Comment_119798980

Honestly, I feel like the Metaverse is the biggest load of garbage out there. Every time I hear about it I have 2 thoughts:

1. It reminds me so much of the Web3.0 grifter nonsense you see random users promoting on Twitter, except it's coming from a publicly listed tech company in this instance. Solutions desperately searching for problems, but having a hard time explaining what exactly is so great about it. When you strip away the wishy-washy stuff, you're left with vapourware / a 10 year old video game.
2. Similar to companies like Theranos, there'll be case studies in future on the collapse of Facebook (or at least, the collapse in value of Facebook/Meta); about how not to grow/pivot your business. Obviously, unlike Theranos there's no suggestion of murky lies / fraudulent behaviour, but it does have the same whiff of fake-it-til-you-make-it off it for me.

Even if the AR/VR alternative world concept did become a huge thing, I am unconvinced Meta are the company with the ability and track record to deliver the best version of it.

I could be totally wrong, and it could explode in value, but colour me skeptical. I think Meta has some dark clouds on the horizon and things will get worse before they get better (if ever). I think the end-game here is Zuckerberg gets the boot and they cancel / dramatically scale down plans.

dinneenp

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119816481#Comment_119816481

DID SOMEBODY SAY NIO?

NiceFella

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119820217#Comment_119820217

Yes, regrettably

amacca

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119820203#Comment_119820203

Can anyone give him the boot though?...I thought the share class he owns means he can do what he likes essentially.

Now he might decide its the only/best option but its not anyone giving him the boot was my understanding....

awec

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119825475#Comment_119825475

He can't be sacked in the traditional sense though I am sure he can still be forced out. A tanking stock price and no investor confidence would make his position fairly untenable.

Stephen_Maturin

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119817222#Comment_119817222

Any ETFs in particular you’d like to recommend?

Made good profit on a number of shares I bought in mid 2019 but I’m self aware enough to know that that was fluke luck getting in just before the retail investing boom over covid rather than any investing nous on my part.

Now I’ve a little bit saved and would like to invest some - similar to yourself I’d like a couple of ETFs that I can just stick money into a leave for a few years.

Bobeagleburger

So when's the time to buy Amazon?Decisions!

Bobeagleburger

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119817222#Comment_119817222

Good luck with the nightmare tax situation.

The UK investment Trusts do the same thing except its taxed like a regular stock.

ETF's are a tax nightmare for monthly purchases.

Cllr_Dermod_Fahy

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119828950#Comment_119828950

Bought 3 shares the other day with the remainder of my euros in the account and already down 10%.

Cllr_Dermod_Fahy

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119827470#Comment_119827470

Just buy Berkshire. It's a stock but it's diversifed enough to be an ETF. Here's 10 years v the S&P 500. Gains on ETFs are taxed at 40% too, while it's 33% for BRK.B

I don't even care if BRK.B grows less than the S&P500, as long as it goes up over time and beats inflation.

Shedite27

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119828964#Comment_119828964

I see this mentioned a lot, and it's complete BS. Monthly purchases for an ETF would mean 12 transactions you have to calculate the purchase price and current price for. It would be 15-20 mns work I'd say. It's the same as someone who makes 12 stock sells in a year.

patsy_mccabe

Elon Musk, the fecker just stole my Twitter shares. Just took them. Never even said thanks. I bought some as low as $26.45 in April 2020.

Bobeagleburger

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119829260#Comment_119829260

If you have one ETF, yes but I know people with a dozen.

Plus it's 41% tax versus 33% on an Investment Trust.

mindhorn

Wouldn't say it's complete BS. Deemed disposal rules here mean that if every eight years you need to make this calculation. Bit of a mess tbh.

Shedite27

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119829458#Comment_119829458

It's max an hour. And BTW, DD means for regular savers, every year after year 8 you need to do the return.

But it's a CGT return, everyone buying and selling anything has to do a return every year. Anyone in a Share picks thread needs to do one each year and picks it up very quickly. It's max an hour work, a lot less than stockpickers put into selecting stocks or their favourite Investment Trust.

Shedite27

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119829385#Comment_119829385

Take your point on the tax treatment, but IT's are basically hedge funds (a fund manager is picking stocks for you trying to beat the market). 99% of them don't beat the market, so you're paying 41% on more profit versus 33% on less profit. Your tax bill migt be less, but your profits won't necessarily be.

Thargor

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119828950#Comment_119828950

All the FAANGS tbh, look at Alphabet down below $100 today, 52 week lows every day. Where is the bottom here? Id say theres going to be some rocket lit the day the fed announces they're done with interest rate rises.

littlevillage

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119830664#Comment_119830664

Agree 100% ... We are currently in a funny sort of twilight world where everything is a bit topsy turvy. Tech and disruptors are getting hammered.... fossil fuel, traditional banks and big pharma are the new kings 👑

But inflation will eventually get sorted out, the war in Ukraine will eventually end and China will re-open fully at some stage. Then the stockmarkets are off to the moon 🚀 🌜

Shedite27

I still feel we need to weather the recession first. Tech stocks have had their pullback, but broader markets haven't had a major pullback yet IMO

awec

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119829291#Comment_119829291

Twitter was public for like 10 years but only posted a profit in 2 of those years. It was taking in billions in revenue but couldn't make a profit? TBH I can't get my head around it, the app itself is relatively simple, it's not like they were rolling out new features every month.

It's probably my own ignorance but I could never really understand why the stock continued to grow when it was obviously struggling to make any money or gain any new users.