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Share Picks 2022



  • Registered Users Posts: 76 ✭✭Cllr_Dermod_Fahy

    Feel a bit sick. I held baba for 2 years, DCA'ing. Sold at a huge loss when it tanked after Xis election and put the remains into BRK.B. I was fearful of the whole Taiwan situation and me losing another 10k by the stock going to 0 like Russia's.

    Now it's going up, up nearly 9% again pre market.

    Feels like it's gonna be years before I just breakeven. Hate looking at my portfolio and seeing it in red.

  • Registered Users Posts: 2,214 ✭✭✭VonLuck

    Wouldn't investing in an ETF be the "safest" option for an inexperienced investor? A lot of people say to avoid them because of the extra 8% tax and deemed disposal rules, but if you factor in the reduced risk from such a diversified portfolio, surely it's warranted for some? Unless you're willing to dedicate a significant amount of time into researching companies, I would guess that your returns from ETF's are on par with investing into individual stocks.

  • Registered Users Posts: 9,396 ✭✭✭Shedite27

    What's done is done, learn lessons and move on. We've all taken losses in our investments

  • Registered Users Posts: 9,396 ✭✭✭Shedite27

    Stock didn't grow at all really, IPO day closed at $49, Musk bought it for $54. It was an awful return for 9 years as a public company

  • Administrators Posts: 53,829 Admin ✭✭✭✭✭awec

    Well I guess to ask it another way, I don't understand how it could burn through cash for 9 years, barely ever post a profit and not be hit in valuation.

    Was it just a symptom of the cheap money around this past decade that investors were willing to put up with this?

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  • Registered Users Posts: 76 ✭✭Cllr_Dermod_Fahy

    I was actually surprised when I first learned how much twitter was worth. I thought 30bn for one of the most used websites in the world was cheap.

  • Registered Users Posts: 9,396 ✭✭✭Shedite27

    Yeah you're right, it should. Certainly for the first 8 years it traded off the dream.

    In the last year with all the other Social Media stocks down 60-80%, Twitter should have been, it was propped up by Musk's $54.20 bid. But for that it would have been a $15-20 stock IMO

  • Registered Users Posts: 9,396 ✭✭✭Shedite27

    That's exactly the problem with Twitter. Everyone loves it, most people use it, and loads of people get value from it, but Twitter never charged anyone. Dorsey always saw it as a "public town square", a place everyone could go to be heard. He never really set out to make money the way other Social Media companies did.

    I was a shareholder, it annoyed me when Kim Kardashian and Beyonce were being paid $1m to put out a tweet, Twitter provided a means for her to make that transaction, but didn't see any of the money.

    Old Twiter had huge costs and little revenue. He's already attacking both sides of that problem with the layoffs and the $8 fee to be verified

  • Administrators Posts: 53,829 Admin ✭✭✭✭✭awec

    I do think Musk will get it profitable, but I don't think it'll ever become worth-his-while profitable.

    He's never getting his 44 billion back anyway.

  • Registered Users Posts: 76 ✭✭Cllr_Dermod_Fahy

    He's not put all the 44b in himself. The Saudis have invested aswell for example, which is why I guess I'm seeing adverts that Saudi Arabia are planting trees and preserving lakes and rivers now.

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  • Registered Users Posts: 14,298 ✭✭✭✭retalivity

    Taking an absolute bath on Atlassian today, down 32%

  • Registered Users Posts: 1,187 ✭✭✭DataDude

    The tax headache is one problem. But the part nobody talks about - you cant offset gains and losses, even within the same ETF.

    ETFs are a complete and utter disaster for regular investors and should be held by nobody buying regularly. A real shame, as it’s so awkward/expensive to get diversified exposure without them.

    Funnily enough I said this to lots of people back in 2020/21 and people weren’t fussed cause stocks only go up.

    Now that they’re holding onto 60% losses for their 2021 purchases with no ability to use those against potential future gains, they are utterly sickened. I’d sooner regularly invest in random penny stocks than be part of such a ridiculous tax regime.

  • Registered Users Posts: 18,564 ✭✭✭✭Bass Reeves

    I do not think he will. He is already losing advertising revenue some big companies have jumped ship. He bough it on a whim, then when he over he jumped in both feet first.

    His original idea to charge 20 dollars was reduced to 8 and that is only for verified users. This revenue stream was only bringing in 6-7 million per month anyway.

    He has laid off 50% of the staff and all the management. When did you last see that in a corporate takeover. He has probably broken employment law in 5-6 jurisdiction, there is a class action in California already. Along with that this type of uncontrolled sackings will leave gaps in the organisation these are not telesales employees or production line staff.

    Taoiseach and Micheal McGrath have been critical of the process already ( and this in a country that never criticises an MNC or what they do.

    Finally the reason advertisers do not want rednecks is they do not spend money on tech gadgets or perfumes. They buy guns and crewcabs. They are not spending on items advertisers sell.

    Slava Ukrainii

  • Registered Users Posts: 45,476 ✭✭✭✭Bobeagleburger

    I'm glad you mentioned that. Another big negative. Massive in fact.

  • Registered Users Posts: 18,564 ✭✭✭✭Bass Reeves

    The only thing is if you are buying EFT's and holding longterm 5+ years it unlikely that any will be loss making. Biggest catch is the 41%V 33% tax rate and the 8 year tax clause whether you sell or not ( you really have to sell to restart the clock)

    Slava Ukrainii

  • Registered Users Posts: 1,187 ✭✭✭DataDude

    I think that’s very optimistic given what we’ve seen in the past and that tech indexes are down 35% the last year. Sure on average you’ll be up with regular investing. But to assume you have no chance of catching a few peaks and then your 8 year deemed disposal catching a trough…Nasdaq took 14 years to pass its 2000 peak again. It was roughly half the value 8 years later, just when deemed disposal would force you to crystallise your losses.

    Also throw in fact, who truly knows when they might need to liquidate some cash for unforeseen events.

    41% tax does have some advantages as you can roll up income instead of having dividends paid out and taxed at 52%.

  • Registered Users Posts: 10,777 ✭✭✭✭patsy_mccabe

    My logic at the time I bought Twitter was, it was a company with huge growing site traffic, but it just couldn't monetise it. It was crying out for a new CEO who would shake things up. I didn't think it would be Musk though.

    'When I was a boy we were serfs, slave minded. Anyone who came along and lifted us out of that belittling, I looked on them as Gods.' - Dan Breen

  • Registered Users Posts: 76 ✭✭Cllr_Dermod_Fahy

    Even when I'm up, I'm down!

    Stocks up yesterday yet currency meant I dropped 2%. Down 22% overall now. At this rate, I'll need a 60% return to get back to break even.

  • Registered Users Posts: 1,820 ✭✭✭Patsy167

    Google at below 90 screams a buy for me

  • Registered Users Posts: 9,396 ✭✭✭Shedite27

    I really don't agree with your efforts to put people off ETF's. Buying and Holding ETF's have been proven repeatedly to be the single greatest creator of wealth. To go through your arguments....

    1. Onerous tax returns for Deemed Disposal - someone contributing to an ETF monthly, and holding them for 8 + years has a tax return to do once a year after that, that should be 12 transactions to calculate. It's max 1 hour work. Stockpickers who sell their stocks in less than 8 years (most) have the same tax returns.
    2. 41% tax versus 33% - Markets (ETF's) prove to outperform most stockpickers, so you pay 9% more tax on the profits versus individual stocks. For Context, if you make 11% return on ETF (proven average), you and make 9.5% return in stock, the net profit is the same. You're banking on yourself beating the market, which rarely happens.
    3. Can't write off losses - Buying and holding ETF's rarely results in a loss if you're holding over the long term (8+ years seems to be your timeframe based on your concern on number). losses can't be written off but rarely exist.

    ETF's are great vehicles and are the ones 99% of investors should be using. There's 1% of investors that can beat them.

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  • Registered Users Posts: 1,187 ✭✭✭DataDude

    If they were treated equally for tax they are absolutely the best vehicle. I had them as 100% of my portfolio until the tax regime changed.

    Its the combination of deemed disposal and inability to offset losses that makes them a scary prospect. You can’t just hold your losers until they’re winners, as after 8 years you’ll be forced to sell and crystallise any losses. If you’re 100% confident that, buying monthly, you’ll never ever have a loser over an 8 year time frame, then cool, go for it.

    Add in that for most people, it’s difficult to say with absolutely certainty that you can hold long term, there are very material drawbacks that need to be considered.

    I agree with all your other points.

    Oh and ability to bed and breakfast for €1,270 tax free gains every year is a nice perk for people with smaller portfolios.

  • Registered Users Posts: 993 ✭✭✭greenfield21

    When Google starts cutting head count then it will be a buy, way to bloated now heading into a very painful downturn.

  • Registered Users Posts: 10,777 ✭✭✭✭patsy_mccabe

    I bought some Apple yesterday at circa $138. I know it's at high price multiples at the moment, but the performance figures are just insane.

    Year to Sept 2022, it generated a Net Profit of $100B (25% of Revenue). Spent $89.5B on share buybacks and $14.8B on Dividends. It generated a whopping Return on Investment of 66.7%.

    It's no wonder Buffett likes it so much. It's a money printing machine.

    'When I was a boy we were serfs, slave minded. Anyone who came along and lifted us out of that belittling, I looked on them as Gods.' - Dan Breen

  • Registered Users Posts: 9,396 ✭✭✭Shedite27

    I was thinking about them during the week. Twitter introducing the $8/mknth charge - apple collect 30% of that from iOS users. It’s a great model

  • Registered Users Posts: 6,493 ✭✭✭Oafley Jones

    Funnily enough I got rid all my limited amount of aapl and Brk-b after the Chinese party conference. They’ve a great model… Until it’s legislated against. There’s an awful lot of pushback against the Apple Store tax in multiple jurisdictions at the moment. There’s no way they’re keeping that high much longer. I also have fear how much they depend on China. They are massively exposed to the whims of Xi Jinping. If Taiwan was to kick off tomorrow they’d be absolutely fooked.

    And as much as they’re trying to diversify into the likes India, they’re still really caught. I’ve a friend who’s an engineering manager at Apple who has gone and overseen the setup of a few Foxconn facilities in the past and he’s extremely negative on Apple’s ability to get out. It’s not what everyone things in terms of Labour, it’s the most basic building blocks of the supply chain that are at issue. He’s described it as an almost impossible task.

  • Registered Users Posts: 2,237 ✭✭✭Markus Antonius

    I've been dipping my toes into cable laying companies since the "bursting" of the nordstream gas pipeline a month or two ago. Nexans SA (FRA | NXS) is one I've invested in.

    I think any escalations in conflicts and these undersea cables will be huge targets. And even if they aren't, they need to be replaced every 20-25 years due to wear/tear and advancements in cable technology.

    Contrary to popular opinion - there is no future in satellite communications. They've been around for what 70 years or so now and have less than 1% share of communications market. Cables are going nowhere.

  • Registered Users Posts: 2,318 ✭✭✭p to the e

  • Registered Users Posts: 13,503 ✭✭✭✭Mad_maxx

  • Registered Users Posts: 9,396 ✭✭✭Shedite27

    40% Apple

    10% Bank of America

    8% Coke

    8% Chevron

    7% American Express

    4% Kraft Heinz

    3% Occidental Petroleum

    and the rest made up of 40 smaller companies. Any of which could make it big - everything fromCitigroup to Activision Blizzard, Snowflake to GM, StoneCo, Amazon and even for some reason some S&P ETF's (I think they may use that as cash)

    It's a great lesson for any of us, go big on your biggest convictions, then a bunch of moonshots

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  • Registered Users Posts: 735 ✭✭✭techman1

    Yea so true, feel sorry for Elon Musk his big mouth forced him into the purchase of Twitter had a huge valuation . It's cost him many billions