Austria hits panic button.

generic_throwaway

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118204071#Comment_118204071

You can't transmit the virus unless you catch it. Is your claim that the vaccine makes no difference in how likely you are to catch COVID? Because we are back into flat earth territory if so.

Danno

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118204157#Comment_118204157

A few weeks in, fook all difference.

Markus Antonius

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118204127#Comment_118204127

Why focus on

• the myriad of risk factors (age, obesity, underlying respiratory illness)
• one of the worst bed/ICU bed per population in the developed world
• waining vaccine immunity
• the opening of bars/resturants/nightclubs
• the fact that we are entering the flu season

when we could focus on the anti-vaxxers!

Wolf359f

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118204163#Comment_118204163

The image looks to be cropped, so maybe the footnote explains it.

But the dashed line is the index case? In this case unvaccinated?

The red and blue lines are the chances of a vaccinated person catching it from the unvaccinated index case?

So Pfizer over time, the chances of catching it from an unvaccinated person is 10% less than if they were unvaccinated?

So reducing Delta R number by 10% is a big deal.

Wolf359f

That's the full image. vaccinated to vaccinated transmission is reduced. based on A, as a vaccinated person, you're less likely to catch it and with a vaccinated contact it's even more likely for them to catch it. unvaccinated to unvaccinated spread would be linear and vaccinated to vaccinated spread would be a decaying curve (if you had the reproductive rate at 1)?

Danno

Protection against onward transmission waned within 3 months post second vaccination. For Alpha this still left good levels of protection against transmission, but for Delta this eroded much of the protection against onward transmission, particularly for ChAdOx1, which by 3 months post second vaccine had no evidence of difference in transmission compared to that seen in unvaccinated individuals.

This study has several limitations. We considered only contacts who underwent PCR testing, to minimise bias introduced by differences in testing behaviour that may occur for multiple reasons including vaccination of contacts. This means we cannot estimate secondary attack rates by case and contact vaccination status, and that absolute protective effects of vaccination on transmission may be under-estimated as vaccine-protected uninfected contacts may not have sought testing. Our approach is also not likely to eliminate bias, particularly if test-seeking behaviour is related to perceived vaccine efficacy, given non-specificity of many symptoms

From: The impact of SARS-CoV-2 vaccination on Alpha & Delta variant transmission | medRxiv

Emphasis mine.

Wolf359f

This means we cannot estimate secondary attack rates by case and contact vaccination status, and that absolute protective effects of vaccination on transmission may be under-estimated as vaccine-protected uninfected contacts may not have sought testing. 

Any reason you ignored that? and the fact we mainly used Pfizer.

generic_throwaway

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118204163#Comment_118204163

Thanks for sharing actual data, that is actually helpful. Can you share the source?

Edit: Oh I see you cut out some of the data for some reason. Disappointing. I thought we were having an honest discussion there for a minute.

astrofool

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118204578#Comment_118204578

Danno emerges every few weeks to throw sh*t around then disappears. This time it appears that we should "f*ck the hospitals" and that the vaccines don't reduce transmission at all (R rate of 1.1 in Ireland says "Hi!") along with posting selective information and random name calling.

It'll all happen again around the first week of December based on the current schedule.

spaceHopper

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118204163#Comment_118204163

So what that is saying is that from 8 weeks after the seconds does with AZ you are as likely to catch it as somebody who isn't vaccinated. OK we know for the hospitals that vaccinated people aren't getting as sick but still that's disappointing. The Pfizer vaccine seems to be much more affective

Correction: correction the pfizer vaccine is giving protection against catching it for long for longer the AZ one bottoms out after 11 weeks

Lumen

@spaceHopper wrote

The AZ vaccine seems to be much more affective

How are you getting that from the charts in the post you quoted?

Danno

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118204578#Comment_118204578

Cut out? erm, I didn't. The whole article is linked for anyone who wants to visit there and read. I copied points in the report, that is all - so spouting claims dishonesty is actually on you.

Danno

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118204757#Comment_118204757

It seems that way.

It's also high time we stopped calling them "vaccines" - preventative therapies perhaps.

generic_throwaway

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118205040#Comment_118205040

You posted the link AFTER another poster showed that you cut out the other half of the visualisation. Doubly dishonest now, in accusing me of something. Pathetic.

Danno

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118204685#Comment_118204685

Yes, I'll be back on here again by mid-December when Varadkar Donnelly and Martin announce a lockdown from December 20th with pubs closing on December 13th to say "I told you so... vaccines are pretty useless" after a hard-core cohort on here defending them and the other useless measures this country has flung €40 billion at. I bet the discussion will be about taking Austria's lead and mandatory vaccinations for the Irish by then too.

At least we can burn our covid passports to keep us warm over christmas.

Danno

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118205080#Comment_118205080

After 1am in the morning, I doubt too many were hanging on every word posted here.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118204757#Comment_118204757

Is this true?

Danno

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118205096#Comment_118205096

A small percentage better off, but on a grand scale it's pretty small in terms of numbers catching Covid.

I accept and the data shows that hospitalisation of vaccinated is lower than that of unvaccinated, but when it comes to spread and onward transmission I have serious reservations and when one express these reservations they are in hot water with the covid police.

astrofool

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118205083#Comment_118205083

Whereas doing nothing and letting the bodies pile up should be the strategy instead? Still want to "f*ck the hospitals"? or calmed down yet?

spaceHopper

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118205096#Comment_118205096

correction the pfizer vaccine is giving protection against catching it for long for longer the AZ one bottoms out after 11 weeks, this is for catching it, based on ICU admissions you are much better off vaccinated by a x 8 to 10 factor. Israel is doing much better after a booster program.

faceman

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118204028#Comment_118204028

First point - No, you're wrong. here's the evidence based, peer reviewed science on transmission of Delta and vaccinated vs unvaccinated.

https://doi.org/10.1016/S1473-3099%2821%2900648-4

Second Point - Yes the hospital system in Ireland is a shambles. But it can't be fixed overnight and we are still left with the current overcrowding and stresses on ICU. Anyone who has ever been in ICU or know anyone who has will know that there is a world of difference between a stretched ICU and a stretched hospital ward. The nature of ICU means you can't have a stressed or stretched ward, otherwise its no longer safe and its no longer ICU.

This Point - Yes its horrible. But look at other countries with far better health systems than ireland. They still have breaking points. Spain and Italy in the 1st wave was devastated. Germany and Austria are trying to avoid it happening to them - in wave 4. Covid hasn't gone away.

As for your last point about letting the hospitals collapse, says it all about you really.

Danno

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118205123#Comment_118205123

Where did I say we do nothing? You are trying to put words in my mouth. We have adopted the wrong policies and the proof of that is we're staring another Christmas lockdown in the face with ~94% of adults vaccinated.

But by all means, continue to look for scapegoats in unvaccinated folks - the divide and conquer policy is proving more effective than the "vaccine".

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118205148#Comment_118205148

Thanks. I am vaccinated but that seems fairly disappointing.

faceman

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118203857#Comment_118203857

And you're basing that conclusion on what? Have you had your head in the sand the past 2 years? You've seen the stats on excess deaths right?

spaceHopper

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118204766#Comment_118204766

Actually I was wrong, the AZ vaccine is chadox1 and Pfizer is bnt162b2 if you look at the graph the dash line is the probability of a Pve PCR test for unvaccinated the line or AZ hits it between week 8 and 12. So it's saying your protection against catching it has waned but you probably won't be as sick

Donald Trump

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118204180#Comment_118204180

"fook all difference" says the other fella.

Let's take a simplistic example. Look at the blue vaccination line for alpha and take the respective probabilities at 14 weeks after vaccination.

Suppose we start out with 1000 vaccinated and 1000 unvaccinated positive cases within their overall populations. One country fully vaccinated and the other not. Assume an unvaccinated R rate of 1.0 and that both populations have same number of contacts.

Rd 0: 1000 Vaccinated have it, 1000 unvaccinated have it

Rd 1: 377 vaccinated catch it from the 1000 in Rd 0. 1000 unvaccinated catch it from the 1000 in Rd. 0

Rd 2: 142 vs 1000

Rd 3: 54 vs 1000

Rd4: 20 vs 1000

Rd 5: 8 vs. 1000

Rd 6: 3 vs 1000

Rd 7: 1 vs 1000

That is without adding that the vaccinated will have less sickness and require less medical intervention.

spaceHopper

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118205163#Comment_118205163

Justy wash your hands and wear a mask....I've young kids in school and it seems like schools are really struggling for all the government talk they haven't got HEPA filters and are relying on opening windows. We aren't been told of cases in their class but kids themselves always talk. Their teacher was out for two weeks also

astrofool

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118205157#Comment_118205157

You can, at any point, list your policies. Other countries with better health systems are going back to lockdown and restrictions due to lower vaccinated rates, so we're doing OK there, we'll see how we hold up. But if you have a better plan to implement from this point forward, do describe it, "f*ck the hospitals" is the only bit described thus far.

(I would also say with 92% adults vaccinated, there's no divide and conquer, the conquering was done long ago, until unvaccinated hospitalised are 1:1 than they'll have more restrictions than everyone else, or we're out of the pandemic).

astrofool

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118205164#Comment_118205164

It's a deflection mechanism, "they would have died anyway" and "restrictions don't work" are the typical refrain.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118205188#Comment_118205188

Oh ya, all good. I'm completely relaxed about Covid. Vaccinated, relatively young and fit. I've moved on with life to be honest. I'm just surprised with the short timeframe it prevents transmission. The main thing is the reduction of serious symptoms like you said.