Climate emergency - why is Dublin Airport expanding???

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117883759#Comment_117883759

Yes, let's look at the cso:

"In April 2016, persons born abroad accounted for 17.3 per cent of the population, up from 17 per cent in 2011."

I am getting rather sick of this right wing trumpian anti immigration nonsense, we are

Whereas I'm rather sick of the "nothing to see here" attitude, while the demographics of Ireland shift dramatically in 20 years. There's nothing right wing or "Trumpian" about it. It's a simple concern for where the country is heading, and yes, avoiding most of the problems we can see in other western nations.... because the lessons are there to be seen, with their struggling economies, rising social costs, and social instability.

A lot like climate change TBH. Nothing to see here, it'll be fine, they're all exaggerating... and then it's a serious problem with few feasible solutions,

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117883921#Comment_117883921

haha... that's your response? Hilarious.

Thelonious Monk

Immigration is part and parcel with a Government who's only objective is increasing GDP, so it doesn't matter what the Greens think on immigration, it's not going away unless we want to adopt a new economic blueprint. The book Doughnut Economics is very good, it argues that we should be moving away from the GDP is king and the old supply and demand graphs and adopting a new way of living and governing that allows us all to have a certain standard of living while recognising that the earth isn't finite and for the limitations of the ecosystem to be considered in all economies.

sekiro

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117883603#Comment_117883603

How much damage are the cheap flights actually doing to the environment?

So much that it should be a priority or should the priority be other things?

An annoyance for me in the climate discussion is that "climate change" and "climate emergency" are really quite nebulous terms in a situation where we would really need direct and focused action to get anywhere near our goals.

Right now it's like we have this scattergun approach where everyone gets to rant about their own personal climate bugbears but it's not actually clear what specific things cause the most problems.

Kind of like obsessing about plastics in the ocean to the point where you buy those metal reusable straws to use instead of the odd time where you might use a plastic straw only to then discover that as much as 70% of plastic the oceans is left there by the fishing industry. Meanwhile I am being ranted at by some celebrity because I use a plastic bag now and then.

Funny how as individuals we are poked and prodded about our personal habits, such as a cheap weekend trip to Paris, but in the background massive corporations are wrecking the environment and avoiding any real consequences. The CEOs etc will be able to afford flights anyway.

Pa ElGrande

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117883771#Comment_117883771

Nuclear is the third rail of Irelands politics and won't be touched with a barge pole by any political party since Carnsore point and combined with the campaigns against Windscale/Sellafield reprocessing. However, we have no scruples when it comes to consuming nuclear generated electrical power via interconnects.

Political speakers at the 1978 festival included Petra Kelly (1947-1992; German Green Party), John Carroll (vice-president of the Irish Transport and General Workers’ Union) and Dr. Robert Blackith (1923-2000; Trinity College lecturer).

Across the environmental movement there are the pragmatic types and then the deep Green ecomentalists. These are the activists who dominate the Green party in Ireland who stayed in government with FF on condition they got to pass legislation to ban stag hunting in 2010. The party was punished in the elections afterwards, but seems to have recovered since and got into government to keep the national socialist party (Sinn Fein) out of government.

The ‘deep green’ position, as articulated by Dobson (1990), argues for a ‘limit to growth’ and understands ‘sustainable’ to mean no sustainable damage to the earth rather than the ‘sustainable pollution’ ethic found in the concept of ecological modernisation. As such, deep green politics argues for an ecocentric society, which places an intrinsic value on the environment, above any consideration of profit or structural development.

I mention deep greens because there is a fight between them and the technocrats. At the moment that battle can be seem around the fringes of COP26 between the technocrats who push net zero (i.e. green bonds & carbon trading) and those who want gross zero (autocratic, de-industrialisation, year 0 types - they prefer the term degrowth).

I have said previously the current narrative calls for us to transition from electricity generation that is matched to demand (plus a 30% buffer supply) to 100% uncontrolled electricity generation by switching from directly consuming primary sources of energy (oil,gas,coal) to secondary (electricity), the problem is that magical thinking dominates in todays politics, the media and many people are not aware of the serious trade-offs to be made switching primary generation to random generation sources such as wind and solar. One of those consequences we are exposed to power outages when the weather is fierce mild. (e.g. no wind & cloud cover) and as a consequence we have to subsidise backup power which means coal & gas on top of the wind & solar and to make up shortfalls pay for expensive electricity from France. I don't know how much spare power capacity France has given every other country in Europe is pursuing the same strategy of closing their coal (and even nuclear) plants meaning in future they have no buffer for emergency ( i.e. weather such as the beast from the east).

Modern homes don't have a chimney and the push is for heat pump generated warming and electric vehicles and in order to manage power demand, charging points will have restrictions. In the meantime I'm evaluating diesel and petrol generators because I reckon there is going to come a scenario where the running costs of running these at peak demand is less than the cost of a KWh of electricity.

c.p.w.g.w

The only way we will have a hope of solving this...is by abandoning our constant growth economic policy and actively reduce world population...

I mean if adoption was easier and free I'd imagine you could solve some problems quicker

Wanderer78

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117884703#Comment_117884703

how to we resolve the issue of ageing populations? running our economies predominantly for the growth of asset prices most certainly is failing, we could try stop this, and redirect wealth into more productive means

Pa ElGrande

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117884703#Comment_117884703

Actively reduce world population? Do you think the world is overpopulated? Are you worried that having a baby would contribute to climate change? Deep down, do you hate humanity? If so, then it’s time to stop swallowing the propaganda of the anti-human death cult and to realise that creation is our ultimate act of rebellion against the elitists and eugenicists.

Julian Simon discusses the miraculous improvements that have taken place over the last two-hundred years.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mV_38mQ1iG4

highdef

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/2058208330/climate-emergency-why-is-dublin-airport-expanding

One runway for takeoffs, one runway for landings = Safer plus more efficient. I don't see a connection to changes in the climate

Pa ElGrande

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117884715#Comment_117884715

How is this true? Have you compared the standard of living in Ireland in 1916 compared with your life today? Are old people such a burden?

Just 2.4% of births in 1916 were outside marriage but by 2012 over a third were outside marriage, with rates of over 40% in Dublin City, Waterford, Louth and Wexford. The infant mortality rate was 81.3 in Ireland in 1916, i.e., for every 1,000 babies born during 1916, 81 died before they reached twelve months of age. The highest rate was in Dublin city at 153.5 and the lowest rate was in Roscommon at 34.6. By 2014 the infant mortality rate in Ireland was very low at 3.7 per 1,000 births.

The vast majority (92%) of marriages in 1916 were Catholic ceremonies but by 2014 this had dropped to just under 60%. About one in eight deaths in 1916 was due to bronchitis and pneumonia which killed 6,708 people, with another one in eight deaths caused by tuberculosis (TB) which killed 6,471 people. Most deaths in 2014 occurred in older age groups but deaths in 1916 were spread more evenly across all age groups – one in five deaths in 1916 occurred to a child under 15 years of age. Life expectancy has risen strongly since 1911 for all age groups, with the greatest increases for younger age groups. A baby boy born in 2011 can expect to live for nearly 25 more years than a baby born in 1911, while a baby girl born in 2011 can expect to have an extra 28.6 years of life compared to a girl born in 1911.

joseywhales

I mean the answer is nuclear power now and it will be in 30 years also, so sure it's expensive upfront and will take decades to get up and running but it is the only solution in my mind.

Can we not convince/relocate 30k people living in Leitrim/Roscommon/Longford wherever for the long term energy security of the country? We've seen entire valleys and ethnic groups relocated by dam building in other countries. We've seen Japan build them on tectonic fault lines.

I have seen arguments for distributed solar/wind with a tonne of batteries/storage(think environmental impact) which I think is wishful thinking to do at scale and with a long term horizon.

Wanderer78

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117884952#Comment_117884952

you need to bring your analysis forward a few decades, yes our lives are better in most ways compared to a 100 years ago, but something has radically changed in just the last few decades. again, we have moved towards the 'standard model' of economics, a primarily fire sector run one, and it is starting to collapse, this is most evident politically, socially, economically and environmentally, in everyday life, this is most evident in our property markets, the primary target of the fire sectors.

by curtailing birth rates, our aging populations become a serious problem, as we end up with a serious limitation of younger people to run our economies and care for these older folks, thats us some day!

its also important to realise, life expectancy is in fact slowly starting to fall in parts of the developed world, evident in parts of america, this believed to be directly related to the rapid rise in wealth inequality in these regions, i.e. theres a strong possibility this may occur in ireland to, as globally, we have all fallen into the same traps of macro economic polices, functions ideologies, etc etc etc

Wanderer78

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117885276#Comment_117885276

i completely agree that nuclear should be a part of our power needs going forward, but politically and socially, we re no where near accepting this yet, unfortunately we may realise this much later in the game, when we potentially could be experiencing regular power outages. it looks like, we may not actually have enough raw materials on the planet to build the renewable infrastructure needed, in order to completely pull the plug on fossil fuels, theres on going research into this at the moment, but i suspect it could be true

Thelonious Monk

Pa ElGrande are you some kind of machine that goes into overdrive with links and videos when anything regarding the climate is mentioned on boards.ie?

I mean I hope you also put your mind onto other better things because even though I don't agree with you generally it's kind of impressive what you do.

Pa ElGrande

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117885386#Comment_117885386

All of us will die eventually, assuming we reach old age the top killers for us will be heart disease, cancer, dementia, pneumonia or a combination of these and it is a fair assumption that our lifestyle over the course of the few decades we have on this planet contributes significantly to these outcomes.  If as you say we start dying earlier it will not be a result of starvation, but inactivity. Morbid obesity and diabetes have been identified as high risk factors in the survival outcome from COVID infections. 

Over the course of 19th century Ireland starvation and disease due to a combination of stable crop failure, hypothermia, poor hygiene, lack of knowledge, lack of opportunity and politics reduced the population substantially a trend that did not reverse until the end of the 1950s following the near collapse of the Irish state in 1957.   It is our adoption of modern techniques and technology that has improved our living standards and all of it is predicated on affordable and available energy for everything from heating, clothing, transport, light and most importantly productivity.  

As an example of that gain in productivity one JCB operator can do the work of several men in much less time and faces less risk of death or injury than hard manual labour, later on the price may be a heart attack due to reduced activity over the course of his life. Consider how many devices Smartphones have replaced and the information (and misinformation) they allow us to tap into to get on with our lives - Having access to timely information allows humans to scale our operations and reduce costs. All of those devices save us time and effort but they need energy, and that is a constraint that current affects the 5G operators.

The old age problem only becomes an issue if you are dependent on the state for your income and that is the situation for much of the retired population in this country.

It must be about 10 years since I've seen the subject of Finance, Insurance & Real Estate (FIRE) come up, it is not "standard economics", it is a result of inflationary monetary policies by governments and their central banks. Without getting too deep into business cycle theory when interest rates are set at stupid levels combined with inflating the money supply you are going to serious wealth inequality whereby the people who get the new money first get the benefit of the asset inflation and last in the chain gets the high prices. This interest rate policy leads to misinformation about available resources causing projects to fail as resources are misdirected leading to boom bust cycles and shortages develop. I'm partially agreed with you on your point this is destabilising, however, I see the crisis has moved to the state level where the ECB (under both Draghi and Lagarde) have destroyed the bond market for state debt, the negative yields forcing the pension funds and other big money into property and leading to the Cuckoo funds problem. The next crisis will be the collapse of the welfare state when they can no longer borrow and I have also observed that environmental taxes in Ireland rise in line with the interest payments on the national debt. States can't keep rolling the debt forever and sovereign defaults tend to happen in waves the last significant event in Europe happened in the early 1930s. 

The question then becomes why are the IMF, the ECB, the BIS and the EU seemingly so preoccupied by climate change?  Why is all this publicity about green bonds, green mortgages and other green finance?   I am thinking they understand the current financial system is on borrowed time and they are setting the groundwork for another Bretton Woods type agreement based around a carbon trading system.

We know they (i.e. IMF, EU governments) want to eliminate cash primarily to increase taxation revenue by tracking and eliminating the black market (or so they imagine). Coincidentally such a system can be used as a tool of political control where bank access can be shut down and with it your ability to trade (get paid, food, rent etc.), that's not far fetched considering the de-platforming of individuals by major social media companies. FYI. The social media companies want to get into banking and finance. What has this got to do with climate change you ask?  Very little at the moment, the idea is to build out the infrastructure for your eventual personal carbon allowance (i.e. a restriction on how many resources you can use). 

If we learn anything from history it is that command and control economies fail when they have exhausted their capital reserves or been militarily defeated and sometimes both so despite the dreams of the EU technocrats resistance to them is growing and the future is not a foregone conclusion despite what the computer models may show. It won't be the weather that causes us problems in future it may be lack of access to energy.

c.p.w.g.w

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117884715#Comment_117884715

The current model of constant growth leads to an astonishing about of utter tad, which ends up in the ocean or landfills

Wanderer78

Credit and Debt USA.png

Ireland Debt.jpg

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117886274#Comment_117886274

apologies, but i dont have time to go through all of that, but you re completely wrong in regards how we ve ended up with high asset price inflation, and relatively low real world inflation, this is ultimately due to primarily fire sector run economies, whereby the bulk of the money, in the form of credit, has in fact come from the financial sector itself, as this is in fact the primary function of financial institutions, in particular banks, i.e. money creation in the form of credit. a snap shot of both Irelands and americas money supplies from the most recent past, clearly shows this, and ultimately explains the 08 crash, running our economies hot on credit, i.e. excess credit, and not enough publicly created money, via central banks. we still live in this world, most debt globally is coming from the private sector, leading to record high levels of private debt, we still havent solved this problem. major environmental institutions, including the ipcc have been deeply misinformed by this thinking, in particular by the works of Richard Tol and William Nordhaus, the ipccs main economic advisors, the same tol you linked earlier. both mens work is been shredded to pieces by non orthodoxic economists at the moment, due to absolutely ridiculous statements being made by both, my personal favorites being, 'most American jobs will be unaffected by climate change, as they currently occur 'in carefully controlled environments', i.e. indoors(i sh1t you not!), oh another gem, 'a 4 degrees rise in temp, will have little or no negative effect on the global economy!

Wanderer78

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117886359#Comment_117886359

very very true, we clearly need to dramatically change the way we approach our economies, we re clearly over producing and over consuming, but the bulk of the growth of our economies has been in 'asset price inflation', this has failed, it has lead to a rapid rise in inequality, which in turn is wreaking havoc in many critical ways for our survival, particularly environmentally

Pa ElGrande

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117886366#Comment_117886366

You can learn the hard way about the Cantillion Effect named after Richard Cantillon (born in Kerry 1680s)

Inflation is not simply an average rise in prices. Prices do not rise proportionally or simultaneously. This results in arbitrary benefit to some who have not created any economic value and detriment to others who have not destroyed anything of economic value by destroying savings for example. This is the Cantillion effect.

In response to the change in relative prices, more resources are allocated to long-term capital goods such as shares since they are spent by the most time-sensitive actors such as investors e.g. by buying stocks and profiting when prices are low. The sudden increased demand for stocks in the financial market bids up asset prices, this may even happen before the rise in the money supply is taken into account.

twinytwo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117879039#Comment_117879039

Well the rest of the world is >>> that way. Don't let the door hit you on the way out.

twinytwo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117879400#Comment_117879400

The easiest thing to do is remove the subsidies for aviation fuel - no more cheap flights. Some people need a reality check with the number of holidays etc they go on. Also working for a large multinational 95% of business travel isn't actually needed.

Princess Consuela Bananahammock

Regardless of whether you agree or disagree with climate change, this is a bit hypocritical given the recent noise from the government about reducing carbon, but no surprise there.

The whataboutery arguments regarding the Chinese and the demand for travel arguments don't change that.

One thing I do believe, is that flying is going to get a LOT more expensive in 5-10 years time and we'll see where the demand lies then.

Wanderer78

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117886470#Comment_117886470

you seem to be falling fowl to the neoclassical view of how our economies run, this is well debunked at this stage, and can be clearly seen in the data ive presented, i.e. the money supply, primarily via credit creation when banks create loans, this is where we re at as a species. neoclassical economics is running out of steam, continuously failing to explain whats occurring in the workings of our economies, its forecast models such as dsge's etc, continually failing to accurately forecast economic outcomes, and then to top all, completely failing to foresee the oncoming credit crisis of 08. from the graphs i posted, you can clearly see what happened irelands economy as soon as we opened the doors to the global financial sector, our economy was flooded with credit, which in turn flooded straight into our property markets.....

would you go way outta that nonsense about the financial sector, we re all aware of the shenanigan's going on there, from shorting, sup prime, derivatives trading etc etc etc, pure manipulation, to the point, it now uses its own resources, such as money creation, to purely benefit itself! banks create the money, then this new money is used to engage in acts so that the financial sector as a whole can truly benefit, gaining access and control of asset markets, particularly evident in property and land markets. credit is the primary source of money used to do so, i.e. developers primarily use credit to build, purchasers primarily use credit to purchase, and if it all goes up in smoke for purchasers, the financial sector gains control of the asset in the end, sometimes! one hell of a business model, create the main raw material used, money, effectively from thin air, and the rest is history......

the global financial system is new behaving as a parasitic and predatory entity, its no longer fulfilling its main reasons for its existence, its become highly dangerous for all, including the wealthy, and to bring it back to the overall theme of the thread, it is in fact, one of the main drivers of our environmental destruction

Nermal

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117888067#Comment_117888067

A mark of how twisted the Green philosophy is - not taxing something is viewed as equivalent to subsidising it.

Here's a reality check for you: I decide when I 'need' to fly, not you.

No-one is stopping you buggering off and regressing to pre-industrial civilisation on your own.

Pa ElGrande

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117888079#Comment_117888079

• Pre-Covid - Southern EU states such as Spain (11.8% GDP, 13.5% employment), Italy (13.1% GDP, 14.7% employment) and Greece (18% GDP, 10% employment). Most of this is Northern Europe going to the south for their Summer holidays.
• Many airlines are on their last legs due to the Covid lockdowns and few EU government wants to see their flag carriers disappear, Aer Lingus may be the first casualty. Lufthansa, DHL are cargo carriers based out of Germany, CargoLux HQ is Luxembourg, the East Asian carriers are bigger in that market. Exports are important to Germany and the business leaders that run it.
• France does not want to see Airbus disappear and hand too much market share to Boeing, or even open up the market to new competitors like COMAC or the Russian conglomerate.

A shell game called net-zero will continue to be played since the EU emission trading scheme needs to be supported, Since net-zero only benefits trading desks and financiers it is likely to become a lightning rod for dissatisfaction from both the dark greens and the parties that represent lower income service workers, political parties will use it to distinguish themselves from the center-left politics that currently dominates many EU countries as a combination of power outages and service industry job losses swing the political pendulum in different directions.

Princess Consuela Bananahammock

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117888562#Comment_117888562

Actually, in time, other people will decide when you 'need to fly. Unless you're particularly wealthy and have a private jet. Or are a bird.

Being on an island with few others options might buy your a bit more time though.

Princess Consuela Bananahammock

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117888567#Comment_117888567

Replied to wrong post....?

Nermal

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117888597#Comment_117888597

I thought it was a rather clear explanation of why your dream of empty skies simply will not come to pass.

Princess Consuela Bananahammock

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117888647#Comment_117888647

How could it have been clear when I never mentioned any dreams that I had or suggested anything to do with empty skies...??

Larbre34

Well done to the DAA for delivering the new runway so efficiently. Hope the Airport gets back up to full capacity very soon and that all those who lost their jobs might soon get them back.