Boosters

Economics101

Is it the case that older people have weaker immune systems, and that vaccine effectiveness may fall more quickly for them than for the young and fit/healthy? In that case would a rational risk mitigation strategy call for a booster after (say) 6 months for an 80-year old, but after about 12 months for a healthy 35 year-old?

This might sound complicated to administer, especially if the IT system is not up to scratch, but it would maximise the benefits for any booster programme in the fairly short-run.

Phibsboro

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MDx8nRWuC3Q

John Campbell has a look at the booster dose situation today, including that Israeli study. He is an interesting character, has been very level headed all the way through the pandemic but isn't afraid to look at the more fringe stuff like Ivermectin. In this video he concludes that every body is going to face the virus at some point over the next few months (he has been arriving at this idea over the last couple of weeks based on the re-infection rate of vaccinated people and their viral load) and that based on the Israeli data he would prefer to be boosted when he does run into the virus, but at the same time he feels confident he would survive an infection with current levels of vaccination.

Also today, France announced their booster campaign, initially for over-65's and vunerables. One slightly worrying detail to emerge from their announcement is that they say how long after your final jab you should be before getting the booster. For Pfizer/Moderna it is 6 months but for J+J it is 4 weeks. I was a reluctant J+J'er and by coincidence I got the results of a quantitative antibody test today, at 20u/ml. This is marginal to say the least (a majority of Pfizer/Moderna jabbed would report off the scale of that test, at 2500 u/ml). So I am definitely in the market for a booster, and quickly!

https://www.independent.ie/world-news/france-gets-covid-booster-shot-campaign-for-over-65s-under-way-40809127.html

is_that_so

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117834161#Comment_117834161

It's very likely you'll be waiting a long time, over 70s seems the lowest age group planned here apart from the at risk groups.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117834198#Comment_117834198

It's sort of a moot point - they will have to start with the Nursing Homes, over 80's, immunocompromised, front line workers etc then over 70's and will have to get through that crowd so time to decide to extend boosters on the basis of age groups lower than 70 then.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117834086#Comment_117834086

Is it the case that older people have weaker immune systems, and that vaccine effectiveness may fall more quickly for them than for the young and fit/healthy?

That is the case yes (older people have weaker/ less responsive immune systems) and borne out by the Israeli experience in terms of infection rates for Delta.

Timeframe for over 80's looks about 6 months. (Pfizer)

35 year old I don't know. 8/10 months plus mabye?

is_that_so

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117834229#Comment_117834229

I don't see us doing a widespread programme like Israel and wasting vaccines. There is also likely to be more resistance as they go down through the age groups, especially if COVID has faded away. I doubt the question of the under 70s will arise until 2022 anyway.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117834244#Comment_117834244

If Covid has faded away.

I'd love if it did but unlikely.

Data from other countries like Israel will inform if necessary or not, not perceived likely resistance.

is_that_so

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117834265#Comment_117834265

Yeah, Israel is a different country, has different vaccination rates, a different population mix and did different things. Sure, resistance is irrelevant but it will be harder to persuade healthy people to take boosters that have yet to be justified scientifically.

Aph2016

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117825949#Comment_117825949

You have no idea what you're talking about.

Phibsboro

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117834244#Comment_117834244

The problem is that it isn't looking like it is going to fade away, even at our excellent vaccination rates. If vaccination infection protection really is as low as 50% with Delta then we will absolutely see another wave this winter. The assumption is that it wouldn't be as deadly as hospitalisation and death protection is still good but we are going to see case numbers rise. You can see the UK anticipating this discussing changing the focus away from case numbers and more towards deaths.

Re the timeline, at its peak we were administering 340k doses a week. If we got back to that, we could booster the whole of the adult population before the end of November. That would require some parallel process for the cohorts who can't turn up at centres.

is_that_so

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117834294#Comment_117834294

Well most people have been fully vaccinated in the last 2 months so November is very premature for boosters. I think the MVCs will wind down and they'll be more likely to look at a GP/pharmacy/hospital approach that they use for flu'. That system did 1.4m flu jabs in 2020.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117834317#Comment_117834317

With the Pfizer vaccine being cleared to be stored at fridge temperatures for up to a month this sort of thing is certainly possible.

Phibsboro

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117834317#Comment_117834317

Yes good point. In a way that does give me some hope as if they follow France's lead then I might be in line for a booster sooner rather than later (as the J+J'ers will be eligible basically immediately, based on 4 weeks).

brickster69

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117834317#Comment_117834317

The only concern are those who got vaxed first. The most at risk of dying, 97% of all deaths were from 65+ age group not 27 year old's.

When were the first vaccines handed out and what ages and dates roughly ?

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117834161#Comment_117834161

T Cells in vector viral vaccine are more important and are maturing in you at this moment.

The point is you produced antibodies and will produce them again when(if) you meet covid.

I got AZ and did spike protein antibody test also.

Not going to say how much on here, but average for AZ vaccine per studies.

All I wanted to know was that I had got some so that my body would produce them again if needed.

That is the problem with unvaccinated it takes them 10 days at the earliest to produce any,

you will produce covid antibodies within hours of an infection.

Your body is primed, watching and ready for covid.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117827000#Comment_117827000

Vulnerable and the old? The vaccines wear off after a few months. A booster program is needed. Otherwise deaths will rise.

we could probably, EU wide, do both.

snowcat

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117834779#Comment_117834779

Yea unless you have not had your booster..

is_that_so

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117834510#Comment_117834510

Our first vaccines were the last week in December and the last tranche of the first fully vaccinated was probably near the end of April, so that makes it 5-6 months since then. The over 65s would not have been completed until June with that long AZ gap.

ohnohedidnt

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117807351#Comment_117807351

www.washingtonexaminer.com/opinion/biden-does-what-he-claimed-trump-would-do-in-overstepping-the-fda

No politics involved though right, that stuff is all just conspiracy theory?

is_that_so

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117836544#Comment_117836544

Sign up for Keeping an Eye on the Biden Administration newsletter and It’s vital that conservatives all over America keep a sharp eye on this first stage of rushed change by the Democrats on its front page says it all about this source.

ohnohedidnt

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117836568#Comment_117836568

There's a theme on these threads where people tend to look at the source and just dismiss the news based on the source.

If Biden solved world hunger, you won't see it on fox. If Trump cured cancer, CNN would blame him for causing it in the first place. You won't find anywhere on RTE that the vaccine efficacy is as low as 16%, they'll never report that because they're biased towards promoting vaccines. All media is biased one way or another.

The news is legit, you can easily see that two FDA members quit because of political pressure. You need to take news from both sides and look onto it yourself to see what's actually going on. But the left just dismiss right leaving articles and vice versa.

www.msn.com/en-us/news/brexit/two-regulators-from-the-fda-resign-over-push-for-covid-19-booster-shot/vi-AANZZFT

Former Former Former

It's funny, those FDA officials are resigning because of the boosters issue... but aren't leaving until November.

So they're going to stick around just long enough to implement the policy that they're resigning over?

is_that_so

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117836614#Comment_117836614

It's really not this simplistic left/right dichotomy you want to imagine. It's a lack of trust in sources and you've used one questionable, biased source. To establish this I waded through the first three paragraphs of that and am completely uniformed but very clear about where the writer's allegiances lie. My conclusion is that it is extremely partisan and just bad writing, clickbait really. Show that there are others and that becomes less questionable.

Former Former Former

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117836614#Comment_117836614

Re RTE not reporting on reduced vaccine efficacy...

https://amp.rte.ie/amp/1242697/

https://amp.rte.ie/amp/1241644/

We are incredibly lucky to have the likes of RTE and BBC which are about as reliable and impartial as you could ever hope for.

Marty Bird

Haven’t taken the vaccine, so I won’t be getting a booster.

is_that_so

Latest thinking from EMA on boosters - no urgent need for them for people with normal immune systems - vaccinate the unvaccinated first

https://www.ema.europa.eu/en/news/ecdc-ema-highlight-considerations-additional-booster-doses-covid-19-vaccines

brickster69

More data from Israel, boosters working well it seems. Judging by the first two doses there has now got to be serious questions on how long they actually last for.

https://twitter.com/DrEricDing/status/1433352755696050177

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117837398#Comment_117837398

yes, it would be better not to have to get booster shots but what's the alternative currently for people who have a high percentage chance of getting severely ill or worse?

Could a tweaked vaccine be hoped to be more effective in this respect? (looking out to 2022)

ohnohedidnt

I wonder is there a limit on how many boosters/vaccines can be given?

When mRNA was being developed for cancer it basically got canned because the carrier, (lipid nanoparticles I think) are too toxic in the doses required to treat cancer. Vaccines require much lower doses so they were deemed safe, but surely at some point a line has to be drawn?

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117837462#Comment_117837462

I's say the PHD Immunologists and Toxicology scientists have that figured out, as opposed to boards posters.

Take the Pfizer vaccine

The entire dose is 0.3 of 1 millilitre and that's AFTER DILUTION

The function is to provoke an immune response.

Killing cancer cells in the body is a completely different thing altogether and certainly would not be achieved with one dose of 0.3 ml diluted