August 2021 Boards weather forecast contest
Comments
-
Well before yesterday's 69.2mm (in the 24-hour period ending 0900 this morning), the record was to my knowledge 49.2mm on 1 August 2014. So if that's correct, it was smashed by an entire 20mm.
In terms of any month, there remains one single day that has beaten it which was 75.9mm on 17 November 1965.
Photography site - https://www.sryanbruenphoto.com/
Weather photo portfolio - https://sryanbruen.myportfolio.com/weather-1
1 -
This months bonus question wasn’t that easy to answer. We are dumbfounded that a station in the midlands rather than near the west coast would become the answer. It is unlikely that the daily amount of 71.1mm recorded by Mullingar would be beaten but it is a possibility. 71.1mm must be near average for the whole month of August and yet it all fell in one day.
0 -
The average August rainfall at Mullingar is 84.1 mm but oddly enough July's average is 71.1 mm.
This max will be tough to beat but maybe sryanbruen or somebody else can tell us what is the all-time daily record rainfall at any location in Ireland, and if that's not in the summer, what is the maximum for the three summer months?
1 -
-
For an honorable mention in the Bonus question is Markee Castle 53.2mm of rain on Saturday 8th. Probably second place to Mullingar.
2 -
Advertisement
-
After the first week of August ...
IMT barely 15.1 (from 15.06) which is 0.5 below normal.
MAX 22.7, MIN not tracked yet.
PRC 238% of normal, range was 73% at Johnstown to 620% at Mullingar.
SUN 58.5% of normal (351/600).
BONUS: 71.1 mm Mullingar is the max so far.
That early deluge has brought the "guaranteed" rainfall to about 55% of normal, and normal rainfall from today to 31st would end up at about 135% of normal. The amount required to end up at normal is 60%.
For SUN we will need to average 115 per cent of normal now to 31st to get back to 100%.
4 -
I noriced it was 7 C at Mullingar during the night, check for the actual minimum.
0 -
It got down to min of 6.8 yesterday at Mullingar.
2 -
After two weeks ...
IMT now 14.9 with the second week average 14.8 which was 0.6 below normal.
MAX 22.7 and MIN 6.8
PRC now 170% of normal with second week average 102%. This guarantees an outcome of at least 80 per cent and requires just 40% of normal today to 31st to get to an outcome of 100%.
SUN now at 81% with the second week average 104% (622/600).
BONUS leader remains 71.1 mm (Mullingar).
3 -
After three weeks ...
IMT on 15.1 with the third week at 15.5 which was 0.2 above normal.
MAX still 22.7 and MIN 6.8
PRC at 149% of normal with the third week at 106% of normal. This now guarantees an outcome near 98% of normal with no further rain (and very little is predicted).
SUN back down to 70% of normal with the third week quite cloudy at 48% (287/600). With today unlikely to move the average, this means that a 150% run for the last ten days would give an outcome of 98% to match the PRC. An average of 125% would give an outcome of 90%.
The maximum 24h rainfall (now seems likely to stand) remains 71.1 mm at Mullingar.
3 -
Advertisement
-
Newport Furnace 24.2 yesterday.
1 -
Moderators, Home & Garden Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 17,276 Mod ✭✭✭✭
Join Date:Posts: 17062
Max. of 24.9c yesterday at both Newport and Mt Dillon.
2 -
25.1c Mount Dillon
2 -
Scoring for the Max 24h rainfall bonus
It seems unlikely that there will be any significant rainfall to the end of this month, so the 71.1 mm at Mullingar on 5th will be the standard. (later edit) There was a rainfall of 55.8 mm of Markree on the 8th, then third and fourth highest values for scoring locations appear to be Claremorris (37.7 mm) and Knock (29.6 mm) also on the 5th. Dublin had 25.8 mm and I have checked all other locations, can't recall anything over 25 mm on any other date, but open to any information, this is quite a preliminary scoring report.
Seven points for the amount and three for a location. Scores are grouped by amount, with any additional points from location shown. Will be generous and give one point for location to all choices, two for Claremorris, Knock or Dublin (no one chose Dublin or Markree anyway so I decided those were irrelevant to scoring), and the max of three for Mullingar which dasa29 selected.
Superbonus points are available (7+3 would receive 2, 7+2 or 6+3 would get one) ... as it turned out, only one superbonus was found (GL had 7+2) and no others qualified. I never heard back from 200motels about what the 166.44 actually meant but figured it was either a monthly amount or it meant 166 if monthly, 44 if daily, so as 44 mm scored rather modestly, I scored that -- if the 166.44 meant a monthly amount then quite possibly one might predict any number between 40 and 100 some of which would not score better than 44. If I hear back about what was actually meant I might revise this one.
Scores were in groups of four down to 40 mm then in groups of three preserving some element of similar scoring for clusters of forecasts. (later edit) Then I discovered that John mac had been left out of the table of forecasts, my apologies, will just add in his score without changing any others.
7 pts ___ Gaoth Laidir 72 mm (+2 loc'n + 1 s.b.) =10
7 pts ___ sunflower3 65.5 mm (+1 loc'n) = 8
7 pts ___ Joe Public 65.2 mm (+1 loc'n) = 8
7 pts ___ Sleet and Snow 60.5 mm (+1 loc'n) = 8
6 pts ___ M.T. Cranium 55.5 mm (+1 loc'n) = 7
6 pts ___ JPmarn 55.0 mm (+1 loc'n) = 7
6 pts ___ MrSkinner 55.0 mm (+1 loc'n) = 7
6 pts ___ waterways 52.5 mm (+1 loc'n) = 7
5 pts ___ Adam240610 51.4 mm (+1 loc'n) = 6
5 pts ___ Appledrop, Pauldry 50.0 mm (+1 loc'n) = 6
__ 5 pts __ Con Sensus 49.8 mm (+1 loc'n) = 6
5 pts ___ John mac 49.8 mm (+1 loc'n) = 6
5 pts ___ Western Storm 48.0 mm (+2 loc'n) = 7
4 pts ___ Tae laidir 47.5 mm (+1 loc'n) = 5
4 pts ___ Kindred Spirit 46.0 mm (+1 loc'n) = 5
4 pts ___ dasa29 45.0 mm (+3 loc'n) = 7
4 pts ___ 200motels 44.0 mm (+1 loc'n) = 5
__ 3 pts __ Normal 40.0 mm (+2 loc'n) = 5
3 pts ___ Artane2002 38.4 mm (+1 loc'n) = 4
3 pts ___ Bsal 38.0 mm (+2 loc'n) = 5
3 pts ___ Esposito 36.8 mm (+1 loc'n) = 4
2 pts ___ sryanbruen 32.0 mm (+2 loc'n) = 4
2 pt ____ Gonzo 28.0 mm (+1 loc'n) = 3
2 pt ____ Mr Stonewall 21.0 mm (+1 loc'n) = 3
1 pt ____ DOCARCH 7.5 mm (+1 loc'n) = 2
1 pt ____ dacogawa 190 mm (+1 loc'n) = 2
_________________________________________
Forecasts (with bonus scores shown) for later total scoring ...
... because I had missed John mac's forecast now added, I have gone over the values for Con Sensus which resulted in very small changes shown here.
Jpmarn _________15.9 _ 27.5 _ 2.5 _ 125 _ 095 __ 55.0 Valentia 7
WesternStorm ___ 15.6 _ 27.5 _ 2.3 _ 090 _ 110 __ 48.0 Knock 7
Sunflower3 ______15.6 _ 27.5 _ 2.6 _ 095 _ 090 __ 65.5 Valentia 8
Mr stonewall _____15.6 _ 27.1 _ 2.3 _ 084 _ 118 __ 21.0 Shannon 3
Tae laidir _______ 15.5 _ 27.3 _ 3.3 _ 098 _ 095 __ 47.5 Malin 5
Joe Public _______15.4 _ 29.5 _ 2.5 _ 090 _ 120 __ 65.2 Finner 8
waterways ______ 15.4 _ 28.4 _ 2.5 _ 117 _ 115 __ 52.5 Cork 7
MrSkinner _______15.3 _ 25.0 _ 2.1 _ 090 _ 110 __ 55.0 Valentia 7
Dasa29 _________15.2 _ 25.5 _ 5.0 _ 095 _ 115 __ 45.0 Mullingar 7
Dacogawa _______15.1 _ 29.4 _ 2.2 _ 186 _ 089 __ 190 Belmullet 2
___ NormaL _____15.1 _ 27.0 _ 1.5 _ 100 _ 100 __ 40.0 (location by climatology) 5
Kindred Spirit ___ 15.0 _ 26.0 _ 2.0 _ 105 _ 090 __ 46.0 Newport 5
Gaoth Laidir _____15.0 _ 25.3 _-1.5 _ 115 _ 097 __ 72.0 Claremorris 10
___ Con sensus __14.9 _ 26.3 _ 2.1 _ 115 _ 091 __ 49.8 (Mul = 1 by rules) 6
johnmac _______ 14.9 _ 26.9 _ 2.5 _ 110 _ 098 __ 49.8 (Newport) 6
Artane2002 _____ 14.9 _ 26.4 _ 0.9 _ 110 _ 090 __ 38.4 Newport 4
Adam240610 ____ 14.9 _ 26.2 _ 1.8 _ 120 _ 085 __ 51.4 Cork 6
M.T. Cranium ____ 14.9 _ 26.0 _ 1.5 _ 120 _ 090 __ 55.5 Cork 7
Esposito ________ 14.8 _ 27.3 _ 2.3 _ 144 _ 099 __ 36.8 Newport 4
DOCARCH _______14.8 _ 26.8 _ 2.1 _ 115 _ 092 ___ 7.5 Belmullet 2
Bsal ___________ 14.8 _ 24.9 _ 2.0 _ 115 _ 091 __ 38.0 Knock 5
sryanbruen ______14.7 _ 25.1 _ 2.1 _ 115 _ 090 __ 32.0 Claremorris 4
Gonzo __________14.6 _ 25.3 _ 1.2 _ 135 _ 082 __ 28.0 Dunsany 3
SleetAndSnow ___ 14.5 _ 25.1 _ 1.4 _ 138 _ 085 __ 60.5 Cork 8
200motels ______ 14.4 _ 25.3 _ 1.4 _ 122 _ 080 __ 166.44 Newport 5
Appledrop _______14.4 _ 25.2 _ 1.8 _ 130 _ 078 __ 50.0 Newport 6
Pauldry _________14.3 _ 26.3 _ 1.1 _ 155 _ 081 __ 50.0 Newport 6
Post edited by M.T. Cranium on3 -
im missing from the lists . 🙁 is it cause i Hate this new site layout ..
2 -
Hey John mac, somehow I missed your forecast from the table of forecasts, I see it there now at the top of page two. Either I missed it then, or due to this change in format it perhaps wasn't in view for me at that time? Don't know. Will fix up the table above and add your forecast to the table of forecasts quoted there (I can't edit the original one but it will show up with the eventual scoring). My apologies.
1 -
New Max 26.3 at Athenry.
2 -
Looks like we might be way out on minimum value.
We would expect low values in these last few days, coming into autumn but with current nice weather that's probably not going to be the case.
Not that I'm complaining, it's years since we had nice weather in August!
0 -
Looks like that 26.3 might hold up, yesterday's max was 25.8 and I don't think it got past 24 anywhere today. Pauldry and our Con Sensus hit 26.3 right on.
As to the MIN, that could still go down -- I saw some 6 C readings around 0600h this morning and by Monday night into Tuesday's min, could go a bit lower if skies remain clear in the right places. Otherwise would look like dasa29 could be in position to scoop a reduced minimum progression (5.0 the forecast, second highest was Tae laidir 3.3 -- this also in position to produce a reduced minimum progression as third highest is 2.6). Any value below 2.8 and above 0.7 will eliminate minimum progression. One other forecast that could in theory produce a reduced boost is -1.5 from GL, as 0.9 (Artane2002) is second lowest.
I will have the usual fourth week report tomorrow but as of now the IMT is probably going to be 15.7 and from there it will likely lose just 0.1 heading in, or stay at 15.7 (average forecast high about 21, low about 11, so there won't be much pressure on 15.7 to move up or down). It was 15.56 after 27 days. Could still round to 15.6 after 28, we'll find out.
There has been basically no rain in the grid for days so if it stays dry the month will end up 98% of normal. Sunshine has averaged about 160% in the fourth week (to be confirmed) which is going to push that value close to 100% or even 105-110 if it stays sunny, from quite a cloudy start. There could be some quite high scores especially if certain people hit their MIN values. If dasa29 holds on to the MIN that total score could be as high as 84. Kindred Spirit could exceed 80 by hitting his MIN of 2.0.
4 -
New Min 5.7 at Mt. Dillion yesterday.
3 -
Advertisement
-
After four weeks ...
IMT on 15.6 with the fourth week average 16.9 (2.2 above normal, marked differences west to east, west closer to 3, east about 1 above normal). This may finish a bit lower now, 15.4 the current guess.
MAX 26.3 and MIN 5.7
PRC 112% of normal (week only 2% of normal). With no further additions this would finish at 98%.
SUN now around 95% with the fourth week estimated at be around 175% (Cork was missing from data but checked daily amounts to get an idea of how it stacked up) The outlook is somewhat cloudier and this may fall back to 90%.
BONUS already scored (71.1 mm Mullingar).
________________________
I did the following work on scoring but the table shows your forecast MIN rather than a score for that, as no idea where future nights might leave that element. The table is based on the estimates above and the current MAX of 26.3.
Provisional scoring for August 2021 (min not scored yet)
FORECASTER ____ IMT_MAX_MIN_PRC_SUN __ Bonus __ Total
Jpmarn _________20 _ 08 _ 2.5 _ 06 _ 09 __ 07 ______ 50
WesternStorm ___ 23 _ 08 _ 2.3 _ 12 _ 06 __ 07 ______ 56
Sunflower3 ______23 _ 08 _ 2.6 _ 14 _ 10 __ 08 ______ 63
Mr stonewall _____23 _ 12 _ 2.3 _ 10 _ 04 __ 03 ______ 52
Tae laidir _______ 24 _ 10 _ 3.3 _ 15 _ 09 __ 05 ______ 63
Joe Public _______25 _ 00 _ 2.5 _ 12 _ 04 __ 08 ______ 49
waterways ______ 25 _ 00 _ 2.5 _ 09 _ 05 __ 07 ______ 46
MrSkinner _______24 _ 07 _ 2.1 _ 12 _ 06 __ 07 ______ 56
Dasa29 _________23 _ 12 _ 5.0 _ 14 _ 05 __ 07 ______ 61
Dacogawa _______22 _ 00 _ 2.2 _ 00 _ 10 __ 02 ______ 34
___ NormaL _____22 _ 13 _ 1.5 _ 14 _ 08 __ 05 ______ 62
Kindred Spirit ___ 21 _ 17 _ 2.0 _ 13 _ 10 __ 05 ______ 66
Gaoth Laidir _____21 _ 10 _-1.5 _ 09 _ 09 __ 10 ______ 59
___ Con sensus __20 _ 10 _ 2.1 _ 09 _ 10 __ 06 ______ 55
johnmac _______ 20 _ 14 _ 2.5 _ 11 _ 08 __ 06 ______ 59
Artane2002 _____20 _ 19 _ 0.9 _ 11 _ 10 __ 04 ______ 64
Adam240610 ____20 _ 19 _ 1.8 _ 08 _ 09 __ 06 ______ 62
M.T. Cranium ____20 _ 17 _ 1.5 _ 08 _ 10 __ 07 ______ 62
Esposito ________19 _ 10 _ 2.3 _ 00 _ 08 __ 04 ______ 41
DOCARCH ______ 19 _ 15 _ 2.1 _ 09 _ 10 __ 02 ______ 55
Bsal ___________19 _ 06 _ 2.0 _ 09 _ 10 __ 05 ______ 49
sryanbruen _____ 18 _ 08 _ 2.1 _ 09 _ 10 __ 04 ______ 49
Gonzo _________ 17 _ 10 _ 1.2 _ 03 _ 08 __ 03 ______ 41
SleetAndSnow ___16 _ 08 _ 1.4 _ 02 _ 09 __ 08 ______ 43
200motels ______15 _ 10 _ 1.4 _ 07 _ 08 __ 05 ______ 45
Appledrop ______ 15 _ 09 _ 1.8 _ 04 _ 08 __ 06 ______ 42
Pauldry ________ 14 _ 20 _ 1.1 _ 00 _ 08 __ 06 ______ 48
_________________________________________
Total scores shown are without MIN being scored yet, you could add up to 20 points if your forecast is right (or closest if we need minimum progression).
The other scores are also subject to slight adjustments on the first or second.
5 -
Time is running out on MIN, unless this evening features any plunging temperatures it looks as though dasa29 will score with the only forecast close to actual. Will update the provisional scoring when final IMT and PRC are known tomorrow.
1 -
IMT finished on 15.5 C, the provisional scores will need a one point adjustment there, and I will wait until I can confirm the MIN and the SUN which probably fell back to around 90% (as scored). As the MS will appear tomorrow, I will get the scoring updated by then. You can estimate your MIN score as follows, dasa29 would score 19 for 5.0, and I would start the rest of the minimum progression from 16 with two values on each scoring level, sometimes one or two more where there are a lot of ties. This depends on what I see in the MS for the min, never know we might have overlooked something.
3 -
Here's the updated and now confirmed scoring with the IMT adjusted for 15.5, and MIN scored. This was reviewed after the MS appeared on Thursday -- turned out there was a lower MIN of 4.5 on the 2nd and the actual data gave PRC 97% and SUN 93%. That led to some minor changes in scoring which I have now edited in to this table. The MIN scoring still seemed about right but I tweaked that slightly too as dasa29 was slightly closer and so were the rest of the pack.
Most scores went up one or two points. If you noticed that Con Sensus went up more, it's because I had an error for MAX score there, as the original provisional score will show, the value of 10 there should have been 20 (there was a legit 10 for GL on 25.3 which I may have read for Con at that time, sure everyone is happy I found some extra points for Con).
Confirmed scoring for August 2021 (min now scored)
FORECASTER ____IMT_MAX_MIN_PRC_SUN __ Bonus __ Total
Tae laidir _______ 25 _ 10 _ 17 _ 15 _ 10 __ 05 ______ 82
Dasa29 ________ 22 _ 12 _ 20 _ 14 _ 06 __ 07 ______ 81
Sunflower3 _____ 24 _ 08 _ 15 _ 14 _ 09 __ 08 ______ 78
__ Con sensus ___19 _ 20 _ 12 _ 09 _ 10 __ 06 ______ 76
Kindred Spirit ___ 20 _ 17 _ 12 _ 12 _ 09 __ 05 ______ 75
johnmac _______ 19 _ 14 _ 14 _ 11 _ 09 __ 06 ______ 73
WesternStorm ___ 24 _ 08 _ 13 _ 13 _ 07 __ 07 ______ 72
___ NormaL _____21 _ 13 _ 09 _ 14 _ 09 __ 05 ______ 71
Adam240610 ____19 _ 19 _ 11 _ 07 _ 08 __ 06 ______ 70
MrSkinner _______23 _ 07 _ 12 _ 13 _ 07 __ 07 ______ 69
M.T. Cranium ____19 _ 17 _ 09 _ 07 _ 09 __ 07 ______ 68
Mr stonewall _____24 _ 12 _ 13 _ 11 _ 05 __ 03 ______ 68
DOCARCH ______ 18 _ 15 _ 12 _ 09 _ 10 __ 02 ______ 66
Jpmarn _________21 _ 08 _ 14 _ 06 _ 10 __ 07 ______ 66
Artane2002 _____ 19 _ 19 _ 03 _ 11 _ 09 __ 04 ______ 65
Joe Public _______24 _ 00 _ 14 _ 13 _ 05 __ 08 ______ 64
Bsal ___________18 _ 06 _ 12 _ 09 _ 10 __ 05 ______ 60
sryanbruen _____ 17 _ 08 _ 12 _ 09 _ 09 __ 04 ______ 59
waterways ______ 24 _ 00 _ 14 _ 08 _ 06 __ 07 ______59
Gaoth Laidir _____20 _ 10 _ 00 _ 09 _ 09 __ 10 ______ 58
Esposito ________18 _ 10 _ 13 _ 00 _ 09 __ 04 ______ 54
Pauldry ________ 13 _ 20 _ 06 _ 00 _ 08 __ 06 ______ 53
200motels ______14 _ 10 _ 08 _ 07 _ 07 __ 05 ______ 51
Appledrop ______ 14 _ 09 _ 11 _ 04 _ 07 __ 06 ______ 51
SleetAndSnow ___15 _ 08 _ 08 _ 01 _ 08 __ 08 ______ 48
Gonzo _________ 16 _ 10 _ 07 _ 02 _ 08 __ 03 ______ 46
Dacogawa ______ 21 _ 00 _ 12 _ 00 _ 09 __ 02 ______ 44
_________________________________________
(actual forecasts)
FORECASTER ____ IMT _ MAX _ MIN _ PRC _ SUN __ Max 24h rain, loc'n
Jpmarn _________15.9 _ 27.5 _ 2.5 _ 125 _ 095 __ 55.0 Valentia
WesternStorm ___ 15.6 _ 27.5 _ 2.3 _ 090 _ 110 __ 48.0 Knock
Sunflower3 ______15.6 _ 27.5 _ 2.6 _ 095 _ 090 __ 65.5 Valentia
Mr stonewall _____15.6 _ 27.1 _ 2.3 _ 084 _ 118 __ 21.0 Shannon
Tae laidir _______ 15.5 _ 27.3 _ 3.3 _ 098 _ 095 __ 47.5 Malin
Joe Public _______15.4 _ 29.5 _ 2.5 _ 090 _ 120 __ 65.2 Finner
waterways ______ 15.4 _ 28.4 _ 2.5 _ 117 _ 115 __ 52.5 Cork
MrSkinner _______15.3 _ 25.0 _ 2.1 _ 090 _ 110 __ 55.0 Valentia
Dasa29 _________15.2 _ 25.5 _ 5.0 _ 095 _ 115 __ 45.0 Mullingar
Dacogawa _______15.1 _ 29.4 _ 2.2 _ 186 _ 089 __ 190 Belmullet
___ NormaL _____15.1 _ 27.0 _ 1.5 _ 100 _ 100 __ 40.0 (location by climatology)
Kindred Spirit ___ 15.0 _ 26.0 _ 2.0 _ 105 _ 090 __ 46.0 Newport
Gaoth Laidir _____15.0 _ 25.3 _-1.5 _ 115 _ 097 __ 72.0 Claremorris
___ Con sensus __14.9 _ 26.3 _ 2.1 _ 115 _ 091 __ 49.8
johnmac ________14.9 _ 26.9 _ 2.5 _ 110 _ 098 _ 49.8 (Newport)
Artane2002 _____ 14.9 _ 26.4 _ 0.9 _ 110 _ 090 __ 38.4 Newport
Adam240610 ____ 14.9 _ 26.2 _ 1.8 _ 120 _ 085 __ 51.4 Cork
M.T. Cranium ____ 14.9 _ 26.0 _ 1.5 _ 120 _ 090 __ 55.5 Cork
Esposito ________ 14.8 _ 27.3 _ 2.3 _ 144 _ 099 __ 36.8 Newport
DOCARCH _______14.8 _ 26.8 _ 2.1 _ 115 _ 092 ___ 7.5 Belmullet
Bsal ___________ 14.8 _ 24.9 _ 2.0 _ 115 _ 091 __ 38.0 Knock
sryanbruen ______14.7 _ 25.1 _ 2.1 _ 115 _ 090 __ 32.0 Claremorris
Gonzo __________14.6 _ 25.3 _ 1.2 _ 135 _ 082 __ 28.0 Dunsany
SleetAndSnow ___ 14.5 _ 25.1 _ 1.4 _ 138 _ 085 __ 60.5 Cork
200motels ______ 14.4 _ 25.3 _ 1.4 _ 122 _ 080 __ 166.44 Newport
Appledrop _______14.4 _ 25.2 _ 1.8 _ 130 _ 078 __ 50.0 Newport
Pauldry _________14.3 _ 26.3 _ 1.1 _ 155 _ 081 __ 50.0 Newport
______________________________________________
Post edited by M.T. Cranium on5 -
As you'll see above, I have found the actual values slightly different for MIN, PRC and SUN which required slight edits to the table of scoring above, now it's on to the annual update.
(MIN was 4.5 on 2nd, we missed that, and PRC worked out to 97% from their data, SUN 93% from average of 4.42h vs normal of 4.73h for the contest grid. MAX was confirmed to be 26.3).
2 -
Annual scoring update January to August 2021
The ranks before the forecaster's name refer to total (all eight months where applicable) scores and the second entry in brackets is the previous month's rank for that. ... The rank after "best 7/8" is for that category and the second entry in brackets there is also last month's rank for best 6/7. This category is only ranked for those who have now played at least six of eight. The "best of" scoring will continue in this way to this update but then will become best 7 of 9 in September, so you're still alive in that contest so long as you have only missed two months. Also your best 7/8 score is missing one so when we do change to 7/9 you may find you're in a better spot than it appears in this table, but you'll need to enter all remaining months to stay in the contest.
rank (prev) _ FORECASTER ____Jan _Feb _Mar _Apr _May _Jun _Jul _Aug _TOTAL__best 7/8_rank (prev)
_01_(01) __sunflower3 ________76 _ 37 _ 72 _ 66 _ 67 _ 66 _ 74 _ 78 __ 536 ____ 499 ___ 01 (01)
(02)_(02)_____Con Sensus ____ 65 _ 59 _ 81 _ 67 _ 64 _ 49 _ 59 _ 76 __ 520 ____ 471 ___(02) ((02))
t04_(07) __ john mac ________ 62 _ 68 _ 68 _ 34 _ 52 _ 73 _ 57 _ 73 __ 487 ____ 453 ___ 02 (05)
_03_(03)__ Artane2002 _______ 67 _ 48 _ 87 _ 61 _ 63 _ 43 _ 57 _ 65 __ 491 ____ 448 ___ 03 (04)
_02_(04) __ MrSkinner ________58 _ 63 _ 75 _ 70 _ 47 _ 53 _ 58 _ 69 __ 493 ____ 446 ___ 04 (06)
_07_(05)__sryanbruen ________75 _ 76 _ 47 _ 69 _ 60 _ 57 _ 38 _ 59 __ 481 ____ 443 ___ 05 (03)
(10)_(10) __ __ NormaL _______59 _ 76 _ 58 _ 48 _ 35 _ 73 _ 56 _ 71 _ 476 ____ 441 ___(05) ((07))
_08_(12) __ tae laidir _________67 _ 64 _ 74 _ 39 _ 35 _ 49 _ 64 _ 82 __ 474 ____ 439 ___ 06 (14)
t04_(02)__ Appledrop ________ 56 _ 75 _ 75 _ 52 _ 74 _ 53 _ 51 _ 51 __ 487 ____ 436 ___t07 (02)
_09_(11)__ Adam240610 ______58 _ 68 _ 54 _ 65 _ 72 _ 31 _ 49 _ 70 __ 467 ____ 436 ___t07 (08)
_11_(t14) ___Kindred Spirit ____58 _ 82 _ 67 _ 27 _ 55 _ 48 _ 51 _ 75 __ 463 ____ 436 ___t07 (t11)
_06_(06) __ DOCARCH ________54 _ 50 _ 70 _ 54 _ 54 _ 80 _ 56 _ 66 __ 484 ____ 434 ___ 10 (07)
_10_(10)__ JPmarn ___________63 _ 76 _ 69 _ 64 _ 39 _ 40 _ 49 _ 66 __ 466 ____ 427 ___ 11 (t11)
t12_(13) __ Mr stonewall ______65 _ 59 _ 41 _ 68 _ 60 _ 38 _ 60 _ 68 __ 459 ____ 421 ___ 12 (15)
_16_(t14) __ waterways _______55 _ 62 _ 29 _ 41 _ 62 _ 68 _ 71 _ 59 __ 447 ____ 418 ___ 13 (13)
t12_(08)__ Pauldry ___________58 _ 47 _ 72 _ 64 _ 79 _ 43 _ 43 _ 53 __ 459 ____ 416 ___ 14 (10)
_14_(16)__ M.T. Cranium ______ 47 _ 37 _ 65 _ 79 _ 47 _ 65 _ 42 _ 68 __ 450 ____ 413 ___ 15 (t16)
_15_(09)__dacogawa _________ 79 _ 60 _ 67 _ 61 _ 50 _ 40 _ 47 _ 44 __ 448 ____ 408 ___ 16 (09)
_17_(17) __ Bsal _____________41 _ 50 _ 73 _ 48 _ 62 _ 70 _ 36 _ 60 __ 440 ____ 404 ___ 17 (18)
t18_(18) __ 200motels ________38 _ 65 _ 47 _ 75 _ 33 _ 63 _ 57 _ 51 __ 429 ____ 396 ___ 18 (t16)
_21_(22)__ Western Storm _____45 _ 81 _ 74 _ 33 _ 40 _ 44 _ --- _ 72 __ 389 ____ 389 ___ 19 (21)
t18_(20) __ dasa29 __________ 48 _ 43 _ 65 _ 42 _ 54 _ 56 _ 40 _ 81 __ 429 ____ 389 ___ t20 (22)
_20_(19) __Gonzo ____________81 _ 20 _ 83 _ 40 _ 74 _ 39 _ 19 _ 46 __ 402 ____ 383 ___ t20 (20)
_22_(21)__ Cirrus Business _____35 _ 53 _ 73 _ 67 _ 72 _ 42 _ --- _ --- __ 342 ____ 342 ___ 22 (19)
_23_(25) __ Joe Public _________41 _ 42 _ 45 _ 58 _ 30 _ 48 _ 10 _ 64 __ 338 ____ 328 ___ 23 (26)
_24_(26) __ SleetandSnow _____ 30 _ 41 _ 77 _ --- _ --- _ 50 _ 70 _ 48 __ 316 ____ 316 ___ 24 (25)
_26_(24) __ Danno ___________ 38 _ 10 _ 25 _ 65 _ 66 _ --- _ 74 _ --- __ 278 ____ 278 ___ 25 (24)
_25_(23) __ eon1208 _________ 53 _ 76 _ 62 _ 58 _ --- _ 46 _ --- _ --- __ 295 _ missed three _ (23)
_27_(28) __ Esposito __________--- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ 57 _ 57 _ 54 __ 168
_28_(27) __ funsterdelux _______59 _ 40 _ 62 _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- __ 161
_29_(29) __ sdanseo __________51 _ --- _ 52 _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- __ 103
_30_(30) __ BLIZZARD7 _______10 _ 21 _ 34 _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- ___ 65
_31_(---) __ Gaoth Laidir ______ --- _ ---_ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ 58 ___ 58
_32_(31) __ Bazlers __________ 34 _ ---_ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- ___ 34
_33_(32) __ Tazio ____________--- _ 26 _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- ___ 26
===========================================================
Four seasons update to follow ...
Congrats to sunflower3 who has opened up a fairly large lead over the chase pack, with several making large upward moves this month from mid-table to the top third.
7 -
Four Seasons contest update
First, the total scores for June, July and August and points awarded for the summer portion of the contest.
Some who entered two months were eligible but fell short of most of these totals ...
FORECASTER ___ TOTAL __ Points
sunflower3 ______ 218 __ 10
john mac ________203 ___ 7
DOCARCH _______ 202 ___ 6
__ NormaL ______ 200 ___(5)
waterways ______ 198 ___ 5
tae laidir ________195 ___ 4
__Con Sensus ____184 __ (3)
Mr Skinner ______ 180 __ 3
dasa29 _________ 177 __ 2
M.T.Cranium _____175 __ 1
Kindred Spirit ____ 174 __ 1
200 motels ______ 171 __ 1
Sleet and Snow ___ 168 __ --
Esposito _________168 __ --
Bsal, Mr Stonewall _166 __ --
Artane2002 ______165 __ --
appledrop _______ 155 __ --
JPmarn _________ 155 __ --
sryanbruen ______ 154 __ --
Adam240610 _____ 150 __ --
Pauldry __________139 __ --
dacogawa ________131 __ --
Joe Public ________122 __ --
Gonzo ___________104 __ --
Now the updated table of total points after three of the four seasons ...
FORECASTER _____Winter Pts __ Spring pts _ Summer pts __ TOTAL points
sunflower3 _____________ 1 _________ 5 ______ 10 ________16
__ Con Sensus __________(3) ________(7) _____ (3) _______(13)
john mac _______________4 ________ -- _______ 7 ________ 11
dacogawa _____________ 10 ________ 1 ______ -- _________11
Pauldry ________________ 1 ________ 10 ______-- _________11
DOCARCH _____________ -- _________ 1 _______6 _________ 7
JPmarn ________________ 7 ________ -- _______ -- _________7
Artane2002 _____________ 1 ________ 6 _______ -- _________7
tae laidir _______________ 3 ________ -- _______ 4 _________7
Cirrus Business __________ -- ________ 7 _______ -- ________ 7
sryanbruen _____________ 6 ________ -- _______ -- ________ 6
waterways _____________ 1 _________-- _______ 5 _________6
__ NormaL ____________ (1) ________ -- _______ (5) _______(6)
Appledrop ______________ 1 ________ 4 _______-- _________5
Western Storm __________ 5 ________ -- _______ -- ________ 5
MrSkinner ______________ 1 _________ -- ______ 3 ________ 4
Adam240610 ___________ 1 ________ 2 ________-- ________ 3
Gonzo ________________ -- _________3 ________ -- ________ 3
M.T. Cranium __________ -- _________ 2 ________ 1 ________ 3
Mr stonewall ____________ 2 ________ -- ________-- ________2
dasa29 _______________ -- _________ -- ________2 ________ 2
Eon1208 _______________ 1 ________ -- ________ -- _______ 1
Bsal __________________-- __________1 ________ -- _______ 1
200motels _____________-- _________ -- ________ 1 ________ 1
Kindred Spirit __________ -- _________ -- ________ 1 ________ 1
_______________
Joe Public _____________ -- _________ -- ________ -- ________ --
Danno ________________-- _________ -- ________ -- ________ --
Sleet and Snow _________-- _________ -- ________ -- ________ --
8 -
Updated category scoring summaries:
Forecaster ___IMT_MAX_MIN_PRC_SUN_BNS Tot Act (Pen)
Max Possible __ 200 160 160 120 080 080+ 800 800 -- -- _Max Possible
Sunflower3 ___ 136 102 115 074 058 054 _539 536 003 _Sunflower3
__Con sensus __135 110 089 078 058 050 _520 520 000 _Con Sensus
MrSkinner ____ 152 071 096 064 058 052 _493 493 000 _Mr Skinner
Artane2002 ___ 130 113 089 060 051 048 _491 491 000 _Artane2002
Appledrop ____ 132 098 078 075 046 058 _487 487 000 _Appledrop
john mac _____140 090 074 069 062 052 _487 487 000 _john mac
DOCARCH ____ 121 119 070 070 064 040 _484 484 000 _DOCARCH
sryanbruen ___ 139 094 074 069 051 054 _481 481 000 _sryanbruen
__ NormaL ____136 086 066 075 062 051 _476 476 000 __NormaL
Tae laidir _____ 143 086 063 074 058 050 _474 474 000 _Tae laidir
Adam240610 __139 091 096 070 037 045 _478 467 011 _Adam240610
Jpmarn ______ 156 064 096 054 052 046 _468 466 002 _ Jpmarn
Kindred Spirit __141 083 068 092 047 036 _467 463 004 _Kindred Spirit
MrStonewall ___130 093 078 074 047 037 _459 459 000 _MrStonewall
M.T. Cranium __134 090 067 067 052 040 _450 450 000 _M.T. Cranium
Dacogawa ____ 131 087 082 059 054 035 _448 448 000 _Dacogawa
pauldry ______ 124 104 053 054 055 057 _447 447 000 _pauldry
waterways ____ 149 041 077 060 057 067 _451 447 004 _waterways
Bsal _________ 122 075 064 084 059 036 _440 440 000 _Bsal
Dasa29 _______123 035 082 085 056 048 _429 429 000 _Dasa29
200motels ____ 124 083 054 067 053 055 _436 426 010 _200motels
Gonzo _______ 121 075 075 055 048 045 _419 402 017 _Gonzo
Western Storm_ 106 052 060 075 053 043 _389 389 000 _WesternStorm (7/8)
CirrusBusiness_ 110 057 041 064 034 036 _342 342 000 _CirrusBusiness (6/8)
Joe Public _____097 047 087 065 043 033 _372 338 034 _Joe Public
SleetAndSnow _ 085 057 044 044 049 042 _321 316 005 _SleetAndSnow (6/8)
Eon1208 ______079 045 056 047 040 030 _297 295 002 _Eon1208 (5/8)
Danno _______ 058 056 051 061 022 025 _273 278 -005_Danno (6/8)
Funsterdelux __ 037 029 038 022 026 016 _168 161 007 _Funsterdelux (3/8)
Esposito ______ 057 034 029 023 015 010 _168 168 000 _Esposito (3/8)
sdanseo ______ 037 016 010 020 013 012 _108 103 005 _sdanseo (2/8)
BLIZZARD7 ____016 017 000 021 006 004 _064 065 -001_BLIZZARD7 (3/8)
Gaoth Laidir ___ 020 010 000 009 009 010 _058 058 000 _Gaoth Laidir (1/8)
Bazlers _______ 019 000 000 005 010 000 _034 034 000 _Bazlers (1/8)
Tazio _________001 000 012 008 005 002 _028 026 002 _Tazio (1/8)
_________________________________________
_______________________________________
Note: A negative penalty is a score adjustment upwards from the category totals, for a minimum score (which is 10).
Contest rank is based on "Act" (actual), "Tot" is category total score before penalty or adjustment.
Three highest totals in each category:
IMT __ JPmarn 156 (78.0%) ___ MrSkinner 152 (76.0%) _ waterways 149 (74.5%)
MAX __ DOCARCH 119 (74.4%) _Artane2002 113 (70.6%) _pauldry 104 (65.0%)
MIN __ Sunflower3 115 (71.9%)_ Adam240610, JPmarn, MrSkinner tied 2nd 96 (60.0%)
PRC __ Kindred Spirit 92 (76.7%)_ dasa29 85 (70.8%) __ bsal 84 (70.0%)
SUN __ DOCARCH 64 (80.0%) _John mac 62 (77.5%) __ bsal 59 (73.8%)
BONUS _ waterways 67 (83.8%), Appledrop 58 (72.5%) _Pauldry 57 (71.3%)
_________________________________________________________-
Con Sensus would rank third for MAX (its only top three score)
NormaL would rank tied second for SUN (its only top three score)
7
