Social Democrats

Galwayguy35

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120299301#Comment_120299301

Yeah but when you think about it how big can they realistically get?

The people who vote for them are well educated liberal urban folk and its those voters the Greens, Labour now even SF will also be targetting.

The shinners are going to steam roll over the smaller parties in the next GE so Cairns is dreaming if she thisnks they will make any gains, in fact she is at real risk of losing her own seat.

Augme

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120302804#Comment_120302804

So are you saying all the smaller parties and independents should just give up and not run at all in the next general election then?

Galwayguy35

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120302824#Comment_120302824

No I didn't say any of that at all and its baffling how you even came out with such a stupid statement.

Augme

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120302865#Comment_120302865

Well, I just had absolutely no idea what the point you were trying to make was so had to make a bit of wild guess really. I still have no ides what point you were trying to make either.

Cluedo Monopoly

Cairns spoke well in the Dail today. I think she will be a breath of fresh air and really highlight the Slaintecare delays and Housing Disaster.

Faugheen

Sorry but it will take something more than just 'highlighting' the issues for her to be a breath of fresh air.

Every man, woman, child and dog knows about the delays to Slaintecare and the housing crisis. 'Highlighting' them isn't enough. She'll need to properly do her own homework into the nuances behind them so she's not living in the shadow of Mary Lou McDonald.

silverharp

the party of expensive opinions lol

https://twitter.com/HollyCairnsTD/status/1362882717059346441

Water John

HC's contribution on housing was detailed and sharply pointed the finger of blame, at FG. There is is correct because FG more than anyone opted out of social housing.

Faugheen

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120304699#Comment_120304699

But this is nothing that has not been said by any opposition leader already.

I believe she’s well capable, but it’s a different kettle of fish to get people to vote for your party rather than just getting people to vote for you in your own constituency.

jmcc

The hammer was dropped on Labour.

"Ms Cairns quipped: "I’d rather be in a party that has abandoned Stephen Donnelly than has abandoned the principles of James Connolly."

https://www.irishmirror.ie/news/irish-news/politics/social-democrats-labour-scraping-barrel-29353489

Guess that the Labourites will be upset that they can't get their claws on the SocDem votes.

Regards...jmcc

Faugheen

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120305471#Comment_120305471

That’s more like it. A swipe at a government minister and a rival party in one sentence.

jmcc

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120305526#Comment_120305526

Seemed to be an off-the-cuff remark too. Labour (and FFG) are in real trouble if the momentum builds for the SocDems. The snide Varadkar and the creepy Martin just can't bring up the PIRA to deflect now. The SocDems could, if everything goes properly, put an end to Labour as even a fringe party in the Dail after the next GE.

Regards...jmcc

Pdoghue

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120303731#Comment_120303731

Agree with this.

I think they need to define their policies better and distinguish themselves from the other left wing parties more. It's not enough just to say they're not Labour and they wouldn't have gone along with austerity if they had been in government in 2011-2016. That was the economic orthodoxy at the time remember, and also they would have been junior partner in any government so couldn't have got their own way on that.

Politics is a numbers game and realistically they need to get over their quibble with Labour to merge with them or even do business with them in a left government. Who would have thought in 1992 after the spring tide that in 2023 FF and FG would have a minority of seats in the Dail AND the Labour party not within an asses roar of a majority!

I heard Cairns on Claire Byrne this morning and she came across as a bit of a lightweight. I can see how she would have electoral appeal though. Still it will be a struggle for her and the other SDs to retain their seats at the next election.

Cairns is a savvy politician.

Social Democrats are the least organised party in the world and I think she'll sort them out. There's a substantial base out there ripe for the picking that are fed up of FF/FG, betrayed by Labour but will never vote SF. They could hoover up a lot of 2nd and 3rd preferences.

Galwayguy35

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120303415#Comment_120303415

Its not that hard to work out, the poster I quoted said they are a small and young party and I was saying the people who the Soc Dems appeal to are also those who could consider voting for either Labour or the Greens.

In other words university educated liberal urban voters and its not a big enough pie for everyone to get a slice of it.

Cluedo Monopoly

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120303731#Comment_120303731

Ehm she only had a few mins in the Dail, what exactly did you expect on Day 1?

Any speech she has made on the Mother and Baby home scandal has been on point and very mature. She will learn fast and I think she will make things difficult for the 3 coalition leaders.

I also think she will be very well advised by Shortall.

Galwayguy35

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120307048#Comment_120307048

Its not Cairns they will be worried about, McDonald is the one that gives them sleepless nights with less than 2 years until a GE.

Water John

If SF is the largest party, who do they pull into the tent to get a majority?

farmingquestion

Can't see any big breakout from Soc Dems. They're just the greens/labour without any baggage from previous governments.

Her "I'm of the generation that will be the first that are worse off than their parents". Sorry Holly, I'm a renter and not able afford a house but I'm far better off than my parents. The 80's was a horrible period by all accounts. If life was so easy in the 70s and 80s then why did so many people emigrate? All I see is young people today reference price of housing back then but a lot of people were poor back then and never built a cheap house.

Sure, housing is difficult, but we get easy access to the world. How many of this generations parents went travelling around the world? How many did J1s? How many saw their parents die young? How many had to work hard labour jobs? How many got a college education?

And I'd like to hear her thoughts on climate action because the likes of Ryan are actively trying to make peoples lives worse, wanting them to drive less, fly less, buy more expensive clothes, take out loans for insulation and the likes.

jmcc

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120306359#Comment_120306359

Labour is not a Left wing party. It is nothing more than an Irish Times dinner party now. The SocDems have a chance to destroy Labour and it seems that from the comments from Labour PR flacks that Labour is getting worried. If the SocDems manage to build this "generational change" idea into votes then Labour is finished. The same socially liberal Middle Class voters that Labour and FG is chasing may switch especially if they see that the SocDems are beginning to address their concerns.

If you read the print media on polling then you are going to be misinformed unless you are reading articles by people who understand polling. Most of them don't. That's why the 1992 thing may appear strange to you. The electorate itself has changed since then. What you are seeing with the rise of SF among younger voters is a changing electorate. Support for Labour and FF has collapsed in the younger demographics. Some of that younger vote is in play after its betrayal by the Greens. This water melon vote had previously voted for Labour but after Labour betrayed them, they moved to the Greens. Now, that vote is in play again. It typically wouldn't vote SF but the SocDems are a very Middle Class alternative and that's what makes them dangerous to both Labour and the Greens.

If she came up with that quote simply in a response to the comment from the Labourite, then she's able to speak in quotable soundbites. That's quite an advantage for a politican and few politicians can do it. Take away Varadkar's script and he he's useless. Martin just looks like a cross between a spoilt priest and a used car salesman.There's something inherently creepy about him and the way that he starts making rat-like clawing motions with his hands when he's put under pressure. Bacik hasn't led Labour back from the brink.With the two ex-leaders out of the way, the SocDems can reposition to gain votes from the younger non-SF voting demographics. If they gain momentum then don't be suprised to see a few defections from TDs wanting to hold their seats.

Regards...jmcc

Faugheen

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120307265#Comment_120307265

Highly disagree with Varadkar being 'useless' if you take away his script. He's got plenty of bite but it's a fine line between being an attack dog as the number 2 to then trying to be the statesman when you have the top job.

His policies leave a lot to be desired, but the likes of Spin Fein was gold.

jmcc

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120307642#Comment_120307642

Lost seats for FG in every election FG contested since he was installed as leader. Don't know if FG can handle any more Varadkar successes. Cairns gutted him and FG in the Dail the other day.

Regards...jmcc

Faugheen

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120307671#Comment_120307671

He has lost seats but that's more for the party's policies in government rather than for him not being able to go after opponents.

I've already addressed the second point. What Holly Cairns said in the Dail the other day is nothing that hasn't been said before for the last number of years.

You spoke about Leo being 'useless' without a script but yet you praise Holly for reading the same script as every other opposition leader of the last 3 years, including her predecessors?

She's well able, in my opinion, but she's barely scratched the surface yet.

Grayson

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120306917#Comment_120306917

Even first preferences. I will never vote FF/FG again. Not without a massive change in policy and leadership. Even with a huge policy change there's too many of the old guard who I could never trust.

And I'll never vote SF. I'm on the left of the political spectrum but for me they haven't distanced themselves from terrorists. There's some actions the IRA took, targeting civilians etc, which were utterly horrific and SF have no problem celebrating the people who committed them. Plus there's always the possibility of the IRA lurking in the background.

Labour are tainted by association with FG during the coalition.

That leaves the Soc Dems.

If they had a larger, better organised national network I could see them hoovering up votes. But it's the catch 22. Without a lot of people to do the work on the ground, they will never get more people.

Cluedo Monopoly

A question for jmcc. How many candidates did SDs run in 2020? I know they went from 2 seats to 6. I can see them hitting double figures next time out.

Water John

Most of the battle nowadays is on various media platforms. Numbers to do door to door is extra and not essential.

jmcc

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120308239#Comment_120308239

Had to check Wikipedia for the info.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Social_Democrats_%28Ireland%29_election_results

Regards...jmcc

jmcc

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120308208#Comment_120308208

Purely out of statistical interest, would you be in a younger demographic? It is just that the SocDems seem to be gaining momentum as a "None of the above" choice for people who don't want to vote FFG/Lab/SF and also in younger demographics. The Greens benefited from the "None of the above" vote in 2020 but it seems to be on the move again. The SocDems seem to be getting a lot of support from younger demographics and that could be a major factor in their seat gain in the next GE.

Regards...jmcc

retalivity

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120308208#Comment_120308208

I'm in exactly the same boat. There's a decent labour councillor in my area that I gave my 1st pref to last time around (she's pretty free of the gilmore/rabbite/bacik stench), but I gave the SD's my 2nd. But then they went and stood some absolute chancers in local elections, like the one in direct provision who was claiming asylum from the UK. They also seem have gone after more of the woke vote in the last few years as well, which is their natural base anyway, but seem to have been making a concerted effort to be front and foremost on stuff like direct provision, trans issues, travellers etc. I'd consider myself socially left on most things, and fiscally right, so they're the only ones I really have to vote for as well.

TagoMago

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120302804#Comment_120302804

Labour and the Greens might target SD voters but they will get very few of them. Much more likely for the opposite to happen, as there will be a lot of Green Voters very disincentivized to vote for them again and Labour fade further into irrelevancy.