Relaxation of Restrictions, Part XII *Read OP For Mod Warnings*

is_that_so

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118102718#Comment_118102718

Numbers from Glynn recently. 2/5 12-15 year olds and 1/5 19-30s probably covers about 2/3 of that.

marilynrr

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118102539#Comment_118102539

Have we been given any figures to show that it is people who have chosen not to be vaccinated that are adding pressure on health services or if it's people who were unable to be vaccinated?

bloopy

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118103077#Comment_118103077

Nope.

Information on the hospitals can be difficult to figure out at the best of times.

Even the media have stopped reporting vaccination percentages of hospitalisations and icu for the last week for some reason.

astrofool

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118102891#Comment_118102891

Let's break this down:

Studies have already shown that breakthrough cases in the vaccinated can carry same viral load as unvaccinated. So consider that debunked.

The vaccinated have that viral load for a shorter period of time and are less likely to be infected in the first place as I noted, and again, this comes up every few posts yet you still keep repeating it. It's simply wrong to keep posting it, but anyway, I'm sure you will post it again showing you don't really understand what you are posting.

The spike protein is not the most stable protein, they actually have to modify the spike protein used in mRNA vaccines specifically to stabilise it, because without the rest of the virus structure as support, the spike protein would collapse in on itself.

You seem to be confusing mutation stability vs. physical stability

Your statement that a different enough spike protein would simply die out as it cant infect anyone - pure wild speculation. You have nothing to back that up. There are a huge variety of coronaviruses in the world, all with different "spike" proteins that infect different receptors on host cells.

Yes, the common cold is a not-novel coronavirus that is not causing a pandemic, if the SARS-COV2 spike protein significantly mutates (which it hasn't) it will likely lose a lot of it's ability to attack human cells, again, this is one of the reasons the vaccines target the spike.

Partial immune escape already has occurred

Delta is able to infect and replicate more rapidly, antibodies gained from vaccines are still effective against it, if there had been vaccine escape, they would not be effective at all (you might as well take a flu vaccine and think it protected against smallpox).

Our health service would be overwhelmed even with 100% vaccine coverage

We would verifiably have 50% more capacity to burn through before being overwhelmed.

astrofool

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118103077#Comment_118103077

There is a vanishingly small amount of people who cannot be vaccinated, far less than 1% of the population.

astrofool

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118103101#Comment_118103101

As time goes on and more get vaccinated, the % unvaccinated will drop, will be interesting to see if the booster program pushes this the other way.

floorpie

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118103106#Comment_118103106

and are less likely to be infected in the first place as I noted, and again, this comes up every few posts yet you still keep repeating it. It's simply wrong to keep posting it, but anyway, I'm sure you will post it again showing you don't really understand what you are posting.

You keep doing the same about this point

marilynrr

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118103112#Comment_118103112

What's the actual figure? I couldn't find it

charlie14

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118103077#Comment_118103077

As astrofool has already said the percentage of those that are unable to avail of the vaccines is small. Many times smaller than those that have chosen not too.

Those unable to take a vaccine are the higher risk group and would be those most likely to require ICU care. If a large proportion of those needing hospitalisation was made up of those unable to take a vaccine, then would you not expect to see greater numbers requiring ICU treatment ?

It`s not just ICU numbers that put pressure on health services. Those requiring hospital care if anything probably put on more pressure than those requiring ICU care. and a lot of that pressure is now due to the disproportionate number of those unvaccinated relative to their percentage of the population.

marilynrr

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118103350#Comment_118103350

I don't know how many I would expect to see needing ICU treatment because they are not being transparent with the figures. Are immunosuppressed people being hospitalised as a precaution in some cases?

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118103137#Comment_118103137

Hmmm, what a difference a bit of jabbing makes

astrofool

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118103137#Comment_118103137

timmyntc keeps on talking about the peak viral load ignoring that the chances of being infected and the time to clear the viral load are lower in the vaccinated.

From a real world perspective, vaccines are keeping R at about 1 when without vaccines it would be 6-8 (maybe more, we won't ever really find out what R0 is for delta), even if we take it that there's an "equal" chance of spread in the home between vaccinated and between unvaccinated (there isn't at a high confidence level). You may try and argue there's no control here, but it's a pretty wonky line of thought to ignore the reduced restrictions and reduced case loads vs. pre-vaccine, but I've no doubt you will try.

charlie14

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118103448#Comment_118103448

I have not heard of anyone not testing positive being admitted to hospital, so to believe that the disproportionate number of those unvaccinated hospitalised are those immunosuppressed is a long stretch. How would they decide who to hospitalise? Unless that is you are suggesting that all those immunosuppressed are being hospitalised, which is an even longer stretch.

Just because we do not have up to the minute figures does not mean figures are being hidden. The last figures we had showed the disproportionate numbers of those unvaccinated requiring hospital and ICU care, so are you saying those were wrong or are you not perhaps, like your theory on those immunosuppressed, just speculating attempting to explain away the burden those unvaccinated are causing to the health service ?

astrofool

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118103635#Comment_118103635

Doing some research it seems the only people who can't get it are those who would have an allergic reaction to one of the ingredients. It sounds like it's maybe a few hundred people in Ireland but I haven't seen anything official.

marilynrr

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118103635#Comment_118103635

No I was wondering if some immunosuppressed people who tested positive (but seemed fine) are admitted to hospital as a precaution so they can be monitored?

charlie14

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118103722#Comment_118103722

I don`t see why if the didn`t require hospitalisation why they would be no more than anyone else who tested positive and didn`t require it.

charlie14

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118103666#Comment_118103666

That would make sense as the mRNA vaccines do not contain live virus so any reaction would only be to the ingredients.

marilynrr

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118103766#Comment_118103766

Well late presentation at hospitals is associated with a higher mortality rate so I would have thought it would be important to monitor immunosuppressed people who test positive in case the persons condition worsens quickly.

Also isn't it common for immunosuppressed people to be admitted to hospital if they have a fever (for any reason)? so the criteria for an covid positive immunosuppressed person to be hospitalised would surely be less than for someone who isn't immunosuppressed?

Blut2

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118103666#Comment_118103666

People who had a bad reaction to the first dose are frequently told not to get the second shot - myocarditis etc. A decent number of the 1.3% of the adult population 'half vaccinated' are this cohort supposedly.

Another thing to bear in mind is that a significant number of the people currently on the system as "unvaccinated" have been fully vaccinated in the UK/EU/US. Estimates are thats about a quarter of the 7%. This is particularly pronounced in the border counties with Northern Ireland, which is why their fully vaccinated figures seem so out of whack with the rest of the country.

So there are in reality very, very few people left to get vaccinated in the country, particularly in the at-risk categories. 99.3% of adults over 50 are fully vaccinated according to the Irish Times figures.

Its why the focus should now shift to asking the government why our ICU capacity isn't being expanded faster, instead of wasting so much time and effort on the very few remaining anti-vaxxers who might be convinced to change their mind.

astrofool

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118103964#Comment_118103964

It's ever decreasing circles to try and get the last few vaccinated, opening up to 5-11 year olds will probably be the last drive that makes a difference.

However, we do see a bunch of people (some on here) that are against vaccines and also against restrictions when one is driving the other, it's a completely disingenuous position to take but luckily no one takes them seriously.

There is already surge capacity for ICU and private capacity, if numbers stabilise these won't be needed, the long term ICU capacity is a separate problem to solve and is a lot down to being able to hire sufficient numbers of doctors and nurses.

Multipass

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118103722#Comment_118103722

An Irish hospital is the last place you want to be if you’re immunosupressed

charlie14

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118103935#Comment_118103935

If someone immunosuppressed is unvaccinated it`s by choice. or because their is an ingredient in the mRNA vaccine they are allergic too. If an ingredient then the numbers are very small.

Being admitted to a Covid ward because of a fever is as likely as being admitted to a Covid ward because you have suspected appendicitis. Even more unlikely because if you are immunosuppressed a Covid ward is the last place you want to be.

marilynrr

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118104598#Comment_118104598

If you read my post again I said 'covid positive'. I obviously never suggested that someone without covid would be put in a covid ward when they had a fever that wasn't covid related...My God 🙄

lawred2

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118101119#Comment_118101119

It's not for my safety

marilynrr

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118101119#Comment_118101119

A new mutation could come from anyone. Vaccinated or not.

Also for all we know a new mutation could be far more transmissible but a lot more mild even for vulnerable people and it may lead to the end of all of this!

charlie14

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118104889#Comment_118104889

We know the numbers immunosuppressed that are unable to avail of a vaccine due to being allergic to an ingredient are very small, so being immunosuppressed the numbers who would choose not to avail would be even smaller .....so My God is it not obvious by now that attempting to explain away the disproportionate numbers of unvaccinated in hospital as being those immunosuppressed is a non-runner. 😉

marilynrr

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118105052#Comment_118105052

I was just asking questions. When we eventually get to see the real data we will know for sure 😊

charlie14

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118105076#Comment_118105076

From the data we have, which is from a short time ago, then you are asking questions on the immunosuppressed as being the cause of the disproportionate number of unvaccinated then is it not obvious you are asking the wrong questions.

marilynrr

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118105101#Comment_118105101

No it's not really obvious no!

It's hard to focus on the original questions when I have to respond to nonsense like you making out I suggested they might be putting immunosuppressed people into the covid ward just because they had a fever even though they didn't have covid 😂 The first time might have been a mistake, but not the second time!

If we had a proper breakdown of just who exactly is making up the hospital figures instead of simply vaccinated/unvaccinated then perhaps I would be asking the 'right' questions!

growleaves

'Admittedly it is difficult to tell from the statistics, but even so I very much doubt the disproportionate numbers of those unvaccinated hospitalised and in ICU are all made up of those who are unable to avail of a vaccine.'

You are participating in a campaign of political blame against a sub-group of the population based on unknown or incomplete data.

If you had any humility the fact that you don't know would give you pause. Instead you steam ahead citing statistics which no one can verify. Shameful.