Relaxation of Restrictions, Part XII *Read OP For Mod Warnings*

Does anyone have or know of data on the difference that additional AZ/JJ vaccinations would have on the modelling?

KrustyUCC

normanoffside wrote: »

Remember everyone. NPHET advises and Government decides,

https://twitter.com/McConnellDaniel/status/1410328183442976773

but but but it's all alright

https://twitter.com/McConnellDaniel/status/1410326798177603584

Martin knows things about Health lol

The government have next to no chance of actually having a plan by the 19th

Great to see Martin coming under bit of pressure from within

Still won't make him any less likely to roll over again to NPHET in the future though

Dr. Bre

Whatever happened to the R number ?

KrustyUCC

KrustyUCC wrote: »

but but but it's all alright

https://twitter.com/McConnellDaniel/status/1410326798177603584

Martin knows things about Health lol

The government have next to no chance of actually having a plan by the 19th

Great to see Martin coming under bit of pressure from within

Still won't make him any less likely to roll over again to NPHET in the future though

The man who formed the ill-fated HSE

ingo1984

MrMusician18 wrote: »

Why is it we're getting our knickers in a twist over this exactly? Because the under 35's won't be able to go to a restaurant and sit inside for a few more weeks? Is that it?

That really doesn't seem like that great a sacrifice tbh.

The way some are going on here you'd swear that they'd announced that u35's were going to be in indefinite solitary confinement.

Yet the same under 35s will be expected to work in the sane pubs and restaurants serving vaccinated customers. So it's safe for them to work there, but not have a drink?

namloc1980

Ballynally wrote: »

From the report:

"The uncertainty shown with the quantiles in Figures 3 through 5 is due to the ranges of parame-
ter values as specified in Section 1.1. However, it is important to note that in each case it is assumed
that the reproductive number is exactly as specified in the scenario description. Comparing the
results for the three scenarios, it is clear that the effect of uncertainty in future R values dominates
the uncertainty due to the range of possible values for the other parameters of the model." End quote.

This is enough of an indication that shows that you can easily hide anything by using over complicated jargon, burying everything in a pile of equations.
It looks impressive if you didnt know any better.
It is like a useless series of equations used in economics. Change any of them and you get a different outcome. Read the section of the report again.
And again. It is clear, isnt it?
Everything depends on everything else with a large uncertainty factor.

I am especially fond of:" it is clear that the effect of uncertainty in future R values dominates the uncertainty due to the range of possible values for the other parameters of the model".
Effin brilliant. Give that guy a phD!

"The uncertainty of the uncertainty gives a range of uncertain values".

Honestly if it weren't so serious it'd be hilarious. And people think these guys are the experts?!

Sweet.Science

In fairness there weren't given any time to dissect what NPHET presented them with

Appears now they are realizing how absurd it is

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/mid-july-return-for-indoor-dining-if-uk-data-shows-delta-less-severe-government-1.4608050?mode=amp

MrMusician18

KrustyUCC wrote: »

but but but it's all alright

https://twitter.com/McConnellDaniel/status/1410326798177603584

Martin knows things about Health lol

The government have next to no chance of actually having a plan by the 19th

Great to see Martin coming under bit of pressure from within

Still won't make him any less likely to roll over again to NPHET in the future though

They may as well have the FF parliamentary party meeting on Stephens Green there's so many leaks

If I were a competent FF politician right now, I'd be making political moves.

Not necessarily for the leadership, preferable though that is, but because of how the measures are considered locally for many TDs.

MrMusician18

ingo1984 wrote: »

Yet the same under 35s will be expected to work in the sane pubs and restaurants serving vaccinated customers. So it's safe for them to work there, but not have a drink?

It's not about safety, it's about reducing contacts between unvaccinated, transmission and calculated risk.

namloc1980

KrustyUCC wrote: »

but but but it's all alright

https://twitter.com/McConnellDaniel/status/1410326798177603584

Martin knows things about Health lol

The government have next to no chance of actually having a plan by the 19th

Great to see Martin coming under bit of pressure from within

Still won't make him any less likely to roll over again to NPHET in the future though

"I know things about health".

Sounds very like Trump. :pac:

namloc1980

namloc1980 wrote: »

"I know things about health".

Sounds very like Trump. :pac:

He does, about how to kill an economy.

titan18

Red Silurian wrote: »

The Scottish CMO makes a good point about vaccination, what are the Irish levels by comparison to the Scottish ones? Last I checked we were piss poor

We're ahead of where they were when they reopened indoor hospitality on people being full vaccinated. They reopened mid May like so 6 weeks ago.

gozunda

ACitizenErased wrote: »

The data should never have been sent to cabinet if it was outdated. That's scandalous.

Genuine question - how was it outdated?

Henry...

Dr. Bre wrote: »

Whatever happened to the R number ?

Lost in space

It's kinda a no-brainer at this point. They could announce the re-opening of everything from Monday, and even if cases shot up to 10k a day a month later, they could just stand up, hands raised, and say "Folks, this is what you all wanted."

gozunda

gozunda wrote: »

Genuine question - how was it outdated?

It was erroneous.

Tony Holohan himself admitted it.

pc7

Mehole could be in trouble now if some of them think bloods in the water.

titan18

gozunda wrote: »

Genuine question - how was it outdated?

You miss the whole it not taking into account the latest NIAC changes?

ACitizenErased

gozunda wrote: »

Genuine question - how was it outdated?

It didn't include the new vaccine policies. It's outdated.

pc7

pc7 wrote: »

Mehole could be in trouble now if some of them think bloods in the water.

How, though?

It'll probably be considered an oversight and forgotten within 48-hours.

JeffKenna

[Deleted User] wrote: »

How, though?

It'll probably be considered an oversight and forgotten within 48-hours.

The projections were all based on incorrect information, which MM said was included. It won't be forgotten.

JeffKenna

JeffKenna wrote: »

The projections were all based on incorrect information, which MM said was included. It won't be forgotten.

I agree. But what difference does the addition of the vaccinations make to the modelling?

That's the most valuable data, and I don't believe we yet have it.

Bsharp

Ballynally wrote: »

From the report:

"The uncertainty shown with the quantiles in Figures 3 through 5 is due to the ranges of parame-
ter values as specified in Section 1.1. However, it is important to note that in each case it is assumed
that the reproductive number is exactly as specified in the scenario description. Comparing the
results for the three scenarios, it is clear that the effect of uncertainty in future R values dominates
the uncertainty due to the range of possible values for the other parameters of the model." End quote.

This is enough of an indication that shows that you can easily hide anything by using over complicated jargon, burying everything in a pile of equations.
It looks impressive if you didnt know any better.
It is like a useless series of equations used in economics. Change any of them and you get a different outcome. Read the section of the report again.
And again. It is clear, isnt it?
Everything depends on everything else with a large uncertainty factor.

I am especially fond of:" it is clear that the effect of uncertainty in future R values dominates the uncertainty due to the range of possible values for the other parameters of the model".
Effin brilliant. Give that guy a phD!

I couldn't see a reference to allowance for previous infections in his tweets, I'd like to know what number is assumed. Potentially a big range seeing as recorded cases are a lot lower than actual.

MrMusician18

eskimohunt wrote: »

He does, about how to kill an economy.

Talk about hyperbole. Keeping restaurants serving the vaccinated indoors for a while will not kill the economy ffs.

normanoffside

namloc1980 wrote: »

"The uncertainty of the uncertainty gives a range of uncertain values".

Honestly if it weren't so serious it'd be hilarious. And people think these guys are the experts?!

Remember it might be -10c or +50c tomorrow so just take precautions against all uncertainty.
Wear you winter coat and thermals but also apply factor 50 sunscreen and bring your bucket and spade.

pc7

[Deleted User] wrote: »

How, though?

It'll probably be considered an oversight and forgotten within 48-hours.

People are so pissed off over this one, when the restrictions thread has the most thanked posts all on page 1 it is a little sample (or if modeled by Nphet it’s end of the world )

Everyone I’ve spoken too over the last day anecdotal I know is stunned by the carry on, now if it was all on dodgy data I think it’ll keep gaining traction.

Red Silurian

Doctor Jimbob wrote: »

We have less vaccinated but we also have significantly less cases. It’s worth remembering that Delta took hold over there a lot earlier than it did here. We still have time to catch up on vaccinations before things get out of hand. We’re flying through them at the moment.

Doesn't sound too bad so, depending on how long it takes before Delta takes hold here... Of course it does grow exponentially...

gozunda

normanoffside wrote: »

No, but he hasn't even graduated yet. Maybe you missed that point

George Lee once told us these models were designed by the best Mathematicians.

You mean this guy?

PhD Candidate in Mathematical Modelling of Social Spreading Phenomena on Networks

With this model?

Using daily Covid-19 case data, the code fits a generalized additive model (GAM) via a Bayesian framework before running simulations of the population-level susceptible-exposed-infected-removed (SEIR) model that is used by the Irish Epidemiological Modelling Advisory Group (IEMAG) reporting to the National Public Health Emergency Team (NPHET)

You know a lot about additive models (GAM) via Bayesian framework s?

MrMusician18

Deleted User wrote: »

It's kinda a no-brainer at this point. They could announce the re-opening of everything from Monday, and even if cases shot up to 10k a day a month later, they could just stand up, hands raised, and say "Folks, this is what you all wanted."

They can't do that. That would be irresponsible government.