Relaxation of Restrictions, Part XII *Read OP For Mod Warnings*

dominatinMC

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117769602#Comment_117769602

"Going to be hard for the people in charge to spin that one as a vaccine good story"

Did any of them get sick or die? If not, that's good news.

zebastein

If it is the NPHET that calculates the R rate, and given how they took all the most negative assumptions to calculate their irrealistic forecasts for september, I am worried we will be stuck with a "R is between 0.9 and 1.2" forever that prevents any easing of restrictions.

Edit: This R rate is completely stupid as a requirement. Let's imagine there is a big decrease that brings us from 2k cases to a much much lower number, but during the decrease the hospitals are still struggling so we can't ease anything. Let's say 200 cases at the low bottom. Then every week it increases a bot, we'll have 210, 220, 250 cases per day. After a while the hospital numbers drop because of the low circulation of the virus, but the R rate is above 1 so you can't reopen anything ?

It is like if the gardai would not check your speed on the road, but if your speed is going up. It it starts from a low level it can only go up.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117770524#Comment_117770524

Frightening, but people have decided that it's a conspiracy theory.

is_that_so

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117770756#Comment_117770756

There's a modelling team led by Philip Nolan within NPHET and they model four versions of R0 with different methodologies. IIRC they tend to go with the Imperial College approach.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117770738#Comment_117770738

But where's the evidence that they don't? The requirements they've set for lifting restrictions will be impossible to meet.

dominatinMC

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117770238#Comment_117770238

"So the plan is to keep covid restrictions forever"

Despite the fact that everyone (bar the few perpetually frightened on Twitter) wanting to see an end to restrictions? Despite the government wanting an end to restrictions? Do you really think politicians want to be living their lives as they are now? Despite all other countries looking to end restrictions? Some have even done so already. Despite that fact we have had worse pandemics before (Spanish Flu) and lives went on as normal. But no, you're right, restrictions forever in a new normal...🙄

I'm not going to accuse anyone of conspiracy theories, etc. as there are a lot of valid points on here. But from a cursory glance through this thread, there are definitely a few posters who would like to see vaccines fail and restrictions continue, for no other reason than to say "I told you so".

zebastein

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117770796#Comment_117770796

We will see what happens, but why is this government not able to take decisions ? Why do we need roadmaps of things that might be possible if 4 random conditions are met ?

UK, Denmark, France, Spain have leaders that read the numbers and the different advices and then took decision to reopen. If everyone and the government want an end to the restrictions, just announce the end of restrictions. In the last 1.5years all the pseudo-scientific plans (remember the level 3/level4/level5 plan last year) have all gone wrong and were finally not applicable because the conditions were never met or the plans were outdated when the conditions were met.

They have the opportunity to react to the current real life scenario but they don't use it, they prefer building sophisticated plans that make them look like it is not their decisions if condition X is not met and nothing can be done.

JRant

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117770297#Comment_117770297

Don't be silly, they are going to be using"public health advice". Now that changes from slightly concerned to Uber concerned on a sliding scale. If it comes to pass, which is a big IF right now, we will have a group of unelected public health officials dictating government policy for at least the next 6 months.

Who knows though, it may be all guff in the Examiner as well.

timmyntc

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117770796#Comment_117770796

Everyone wants an end to restrictions - but certain people dont want to accept the fact that people will die, and the virus will be endemic. Theres still a cohort who believe that 80/90/100% vaccination will make the virus magically disappear - it wont, its always going to be around, and some people will get sick and die. Sad, but inevitable.

We should be acknowledging this, and just getting on with it. But instead we have criteria like "R0 of less than 1" in order to relax any more restrictions. The only people in denial here are those in charge, and the perpetually afraid. Everyone else wants to get back to normal and deal with the consequences.

JRant

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117770537#Comment_117770537

Well the AND gate is not going to allow an output before spring as hospitals have struggled every winter over the past decade.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117770770#Comment_117770770

People here seem to have decided the World Economic Forum is some form of world government with a single agenda, not a talking shop. Donald Trump and Greta Thunberg both attended in 2020. I would hope we dont have anyone here who believes they have a common agenda?

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117770756#Comment_117770756

R0 is falling here currently.

growleaves

'But from a cursory glance through this thread, there are definitely a few posters who would like to see vaccines fail and restrictions continue'

Nah. Its trivially easy to be 'proved right' on this topic if you pay attention, which apologists for restrictions refuse to do.

I've already made enough correct predictions to sate my ego thanks.

Restrictions will continue, because restrictions are not imposed by microbes or a lack of vaccines or any other incidental factor, they're imposed by particular human beings who favour restrictions as the way to manage the country.

Until that changes, the situation won't change. It's not random, or a mystery or a surprise.

HerrKapitan

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117770950#Comment_117770950

Leo Varadkar, Ursula von der leyen, Macron, Merkel and Trudeau all met with him too. All quoting Build back better in later press conferences. And now we have bio passports, moves towards a cashless society.

Could you not describe the Dáil as a talking shop? As laws usually start out as talks do they not?

Deeper Blue

Is it even possible to get the R0 below 1 for an endemic virus?

That roadmap reads like it's for a country with no vaccines. Farcical and utterly depressing.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117770950#Comment_117770950

To be fair Raind, thunder-berg was not attending, she was showcased like a joan of arc for the environmentalist. She was also there to undermine Trump which detracted from everything and made it all farcical, cue the photo of her sour face as trump arrives. Trump was there to be trump, upset the apple cart and assert US would be dominance on the world stage.

I have always thought those type of symposiums to be a bit odd when you hear of no cameras allowed policies (Bilderberg) and agenda setting by a Germanic type character in Mr schwab who's one white cat short of an Ian Fleming part.

They have all had humanitarian and altruistic beginnings I'm sure, but it's all a joke now in how it carries over.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117771014#Comment_117771014

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Reset

...

zebastein

Querying your opinions here:

What do you think can be the impact of easing the remaining restrictions on the increase of the circulation of the virus?

The vrus is already circulating a lot in the community and we currently have travel opened, we have 83% of people who are allowed to use hospitality inside...

Do you think that reopening the remaining restrictions would lead to a lot more contacts for each person ? I can foresee going back to the workplace as a major increase of number of contacts, but I am unsure about the rest of the restrictions. If I take a few examples I face:

• Gym is limited to 50 people, but if there were no restrictions, there wouldn't be more than 60/70 people at peak time, and that does not mean that I would have more contacts in a session.
• Swimming pool: there is no shower allowed, you have to shower at home. I don't expect a major peak of contaminations if showers were back.
• Stadium: like anything else outside, if you multiply by 5 the number of people in a stadium, that does not automatically multiply by 5 the number of contacts the average person has in this stadium.

My opinion is that except the workplace, we have ~80% of our daily contacts. We already meet our friends and family, if you relax restrictions you give more options to people but not necessarily increase their contacts. Like if bowlings are opened, instead of spending a night with your friends in the pub, you spend it with the same friends playing bowling. It is not necessarily people doing more with more people.

There are 17% of adults (and 0% of children) not allowed to eat inside, do you really think that allowing these 17% young people eating inside would have a high impact on the hospital numbers ?

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117771106#Comment_117771106

And a large number of the remaining 17% of Adults are on track to being fully vaccinated. Very quickly the vaccine pass serves no purpose. And that's pretty much exactly what we were told when it was brought in.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117771095#Comment_117771095

This is the best description of what the WEF meeting actually was:

an attempt by the rich to make themselves look good

OwenM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117770960#Comment_117770960

I had a feeling it was on the turn, something another poster mentioned about doubling time increasing - was there an announcement or are you doing some calcs yourself?

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117771172#Comment_117771172

This is as good an estimate as any.

darconio

@zebastein spot on, at the moment if you go to a pub or restaurant 8 (becoming soon 9) people over 10 are vaccinated: so where is the danger? why we still need a pass? To protect that 1 person that is not vaccinated? LOL that person is definitely not in the vulnerable category anyway (all of them are vaccinated), so what's holding up the government?

godzilla1989

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117771154#Comment_117771154

Forgetting booster shots there raind? Which we have to acknowledge will play a big role in vaccine passes

It's not 2 shots and that's it, we all know that's not gonna happen.

We all know it's only a matter of time before we are all told we need a booster as vaccines are waning after a few months, essentialy no one is vaccinated after they wane and then we have gen 2 vaccine's down the line targeted for Delta and the variant's, as well as antivirals as treatments.

Personally I can see a policy of 2 doses needed for smaller venue's like gym's, cafe's, restaurants etc and 3 doses needed for large venue's like concerts, cinema's, nightclubs, flights etc

You'll call that a conspiracy and crazy i'm sure but from what's happened in the last 20 months, it's nothing but crazy and very realistic.

SnuggyBear

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117770220#Comment_117770220

Of course it will be extended and extended and built upon. What kind of naive idiot can't see this at this stage.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117771170#Comment_117771170

The actual meeting will take place in May of next year. The one in January was a virtual one.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117771193#Comment_117771193

There is no evidence that vaccines wane to the degree that everyone will need a booster. Conclusions in this regard are based on the most vulnerable population in Israel who were vaccinated first. They were always going to be the population with the greatest vaccine escape and the poorest immune response.

Never ending doom on here

PTH2009

Christ your feel like screaming

We're going to be paddy last as always and will still have restrictions heading into 2022

With such good Vaccine uptake, it's a joke the way we're been forced to live like this because of our failing health system

godzilla1989

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117771256#Comment_117771256

It is but can you blame people?

At this stage I am 99% sure we won't have St Patricks day parades on March 17th 2022 and pubs packed like old times.

That was unthinkable a few months ago in vaccine sunshine.

brickster69

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117771255#Comment_117771255

Penny dropping in the USA. Having a rethink

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/08/17/covid-vaccine-booster-shots-nih-director-says-new-israel-data-is-building-case-in-the-us.html?__source=sharebar%7Ctwitter&par=sharebar